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(GRADED)Deep Dive #2: Comparing TPE earned by recreates and new creates
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(This post was last modified: 02-26-2021, 09:36 PM by CptSquall.)

All draft war rooms - in the SMJHL and other sim leagues - have different preconceptions about recreates and new creates (for the avoidance of doubt, I'm using new create to mean the first player created by a particular user). Recreates are generally seen as safer, and might be easier to manage given that they'll require less teaching and guidance. Picking a brand new user is more of a wildcard - maybe they're a future commissioner or GM, or maybe they'll disappear two weeks later and never come back. Especially at the junior level, when they've only just signed up. Sticking dogmatically to a policy of drafting all recreates or no recreates is probably a bad idea, but where to place yourself on the spectrum between the two extremes probably depends on your strengths and weaknesses as a GM and the characteristics of the prospects available to you.

In almost complete opposition to the previous sentence, I sorted each of the S59 class into recreates and new creates, and then compared the TPE earned by the two groups. The 71 player class was split almost 50:50, being comprised of 35 recreates and 36 new creates. This was partly inspired by Emiko's deep dive about picking users who've previously gone inactive, so thanks for that. I was curious to see: to what extent are the success stories and the users who consistently create successful players offset by the users who simply go inactive again?

The 124715:

First, on methodology: There are four players in this class who I considered recreates, but retired or went inactive almost immediately with their former player. These four updated once, never, or retired during their rookie season. The four have 267, 239, 234 and 174 TPE.

Mean = 225.9 TPE for recreates, 210.9 for new creates
Median = 234 TPE for recreates, 214.5 for new creates
25th percentile = 244 TPE for recreates, 235 for new creates
75th percentile = 206 TPE for recreates, 189.5 for new creates
Highest = 270 TPE for recreates, 263 for new creates
Lowest = 174 TPE for recreates, 155 for new creates

The analysis:

Based on our very small sample size, it's true that recreates, as a whole, earn more TPE. No matter how you cut the data, they're superior in that regard. There's a gap of 15 TPE between the mean recreate and the mean new create, which stretches to 19.5 TPE when you compare the median values rather than the mean values. Interestingly though, the gap falls to 7 TPE when you compare the best recreate and the best newcreate, or 9 TPE when you compare the 25th percentiles.

Rather than taking this to mean "draft recreates", we might be better off asking why that is. Our recreates generally created earlier, started with larger bank balances that would have afforded them weekly training and personal coaching, and had greater knowledge of SHL - and of sim leagues more generally. I believe it's these traits, which recreates usually have, that makes them better earners. New creates who had some of these advantages demonstrate similar levels of earning. Blasoon and myself are 3rd and 9th in the class respectively, being GMs in another league who were encouraged by our teammates in that league to create. We created earlier, had additional knowledge by way of getting advice from those teammates, and were able to translate ISFL experience to SHL experience where applicable. You can see this in some of those four recreates I mentioned earlier, too. The three success stories of the four players I mentioned earlier are similar in that they also have successful ISFL players and were able to benefit in a similar way.

The numbers would break down differently if I tried to separate recreates and new creates into categories depending on other sim league experience, how successful their previous players were, etc. Intuitively, I'd also think that how much TPE a player earns will be affected by their environment. Great GMs and a great locker room may encourage a player to earn more, while the inverse will discourage overall activity. But I was over 600 words before writing this paragraph, so this is where this deep dive will end. (693 words)

Approved +5 TPE @Memento Mori

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