Good to be graded

An In-Depth Look at Each Team's Third Line

As a current third liner who's beginning to find his footing, I thought I would look into how each team's third line is performing relative to other third lines, as well as on an individual basis. At the bottom is a screenshot of each third line on each team, as well as some stats that will be discussed further.

   

The stats I have taken into consideration and I deem to be most important is this breakdown are:
goals/assists/points, average minutes per game, points per 20 minuts, TPE, as well as an mean TPE for each line.

General Breakdown

• 7 players are capped out
  
• 4 are between 300-350
  
• 11 are between 200-300
  
• 9 are below 200
  
• 16 are rookies
  

Average Line Strength (1-10)

1. 347.33 TPE: Anchorage
   
2. 342.33 TPE: Detroit
   
3. 302.67 TPE: Vancouver
   
4. 296 TPE: Halifax
   
5. 256.33 TPE: Anaheim
   
6. 221.67 TPE: Kelowna
   
7. 221 TPE: Colorado
   
8. 193.67 TPE: Montreal
   
9. 193 TPE: Lethbridge
   
10. 187.33 TPE: St. Louis
    

With this in mind, the third lines of Anchorage, Detroit, Vancouver, and Halifax, should produce similar to one another, while thoroughly outproducing Kelowna to St. Louis. Anaheim, with a middling TPE, should fall somewhere in the middle.



Line Production- Points (TPE Ranking in red)

1. Vancouver (3): 56 points
   
2. Detroit (2): 53 points
   
3. Anchorage (1): 47 points
   
4. Halifax (4): 45 points
   
5. Montreal (8): 34 points
   
6. Anaheim (5): 31 points
   
7. Colorado (7): 28 points
   
8. Kelowna (6): 21 points
   
9. Lethbridge (9): 15 points
   
10. St. Louis (10): 14 points
    

Some takeaways

• This went as expected, as the stronger lines outproduce the weaker lines.
  
• Anchorage is slightly lagging behind where their production should be, especially since this line receives the second highest amount of ice time (28%) compared to their peers
  
• High-flying 1 seed Detroit's third line has produced the most points so far
  
• Kelowna's third line, with 3 rookies, is lagging behind where they are expected to be
  
• Vancouver is 1st with a center with only 3 points, imagine if the third member of the line begins to produce?
  
• Halifax is 4th with 45 points with a member that has only managed 1 assist so far
  

So, can they play both ways? Looking at +/-

1. Combined +24: Detroit
   
2. Combined +5: Montreal
   
3. Combined -3 (tie): Colorado
   
4. Combined -3 (tie): Kelowna
   
5. Combined -12: Anchorage
   
6. Combined -18: St. Louis
   
7. Combined -19: Anaheim
   
8. Combined -25: Halifax
   
9. Combined -26: Vancouver
   
10. Combined -37: Lethbridge
    

Takeaways

• Teams with rough 3rd-line point production (St. Louis/Kelowna/Colorado) may have their 3rd lines play more defensively-responsible hockey, as shown by their average-above average +/- results.
  
• High point-producing lines, such as Vancouver and Halifax may have their 3rd lines pushing offense constantly
  
• Lethbridge's 3rd line can neither score or keep the puck out of their own net
  

Point producers

1. gray        31
   
2. kyllonen 22
   
3. reider        22
   
4. spanish 22
   
5. fouquette 20
   
6. jones        20
   
7. anazibf 17
   
8. kerr        16
   
9. zvejnieks 16
   
10. bombay       15
    
11. fiddler        15
    
12. bobby        14
    
13. peralta        13
    
14. petrov        13
    
15. maclean       11
    
16. patey        11
    
17. eriksson 9
    
18. urawa         9
    
19. hernadivic 8
    
20. barbashev 6
    
21. Last name 6
    
22. shepard 6
    
23. strudwick 5
    
24. weston 5
    
25. jokinen 3
    
26. weiser         3
    
27. fuhrberg 2
    
28. vanice         2
    
29. dangelchek 1
    
30. krashwagen 1
    

Advanced STATS OOOOOOO

Here I'd thought to look at each of the 30 individual players that make up the SMJHL's third lines on a P/20 minute basis.

1. Gray: 1.08 p/20 min - Van
   
2. Anazibf: 0.88 p/20 min - Det
   
3. Kyllonen: 0.87 p/20 min - Hfx
   
4. Fouquette: 0.86 p/20 min - Det
   
5. Rieder: 0.75 p/20 min - Van
   
6. Bobby: 0.74 p/20 min - Mtl
   
7. Spanish: 0.73 p/20 min - Hfx
   
8. Jones: 0.72 p/20 min - Anc
   
9. Zvejnieks: 0.69 p/20 min - Det
   
10. Peralta: 0.64 p/20 min - Col
    
11. Fiddler: 0.63 p/20 min - Mtl
    
12. Kerr: 0.6 p/20 min - Anc
    
13. Petrov: 0.55 p/20 min - Ana
    
14. Urawa: 0.55 p/20 min - Col
    
15. Patey: 0.5 p/20 min - Leth
    
16. Maclean: 0.49 p/20 min - Anc
    
17. Bombay: 0.48 p/20 - Ana
    
18. Eriksson: 0.43 p/20 min - Kel
    
19. Hernadivic: 0.41 p/20 min - StL
    
20. Last Name: 0.33 p/20 min - Col
    
21. Barbashev: 0.29 p/20 min - Kel
    
22. Shepard: 0.29 p/20 min - Kel
    
23. Weston: 0.25 p/20 min - Mtl
    
24. Vanice: 0.23 p/20 min - Leth
    
25. Strudwick: 0.21 p/20 min - StL
    
26. Jokinen: 0.15 p/20 min - Ana
    
27. Weiser: 0.15 p.20 min - Van
    
28. Fuhrberg: 0.11 p/20 min - Leth
    
29. Dangelchek: 0.05 p/20 - StL
    
30. Krashwagen: 0.05 p/20 - Hfx
    

Takeaways

• Vancouver's Gray, Detroit's Anazibf, and Halifax's Kyllonen have been the 3 best third line players, putting up the most points/20 min rates of the 30 total players
  
• Fuhrberg, Dangelchek, and Krashwagen have all had some terribly shitty puck luck.
  
• Fouquette has been carried by Anazibf at this point of the season.
  

Overachievers
Some people who might be doing a little too much with their minutes

• Detroit's Fouquette, who is currently sporting a 22.22 shooting percentage, could see his goal output fall in the second half of the season as that number will be hard to sustain.
  
• Montreal's Fiddler, ranked 27th in TPE, currently has 15 points, good for 10th in the league. He may experience a decrease in production as the numbers level out.
  
• Lethbridge's Patey, 26th in TPE, but with 11 points, may also regress to the mean.
  

Underachievers
Players who for some reason aren't producing?

• Anchorage's Maclean, a capped out player, has struggled, putting up only 11 points with a 6.78 shooting % and a -7. Can he bounce back?
  
• Dangelchek, Krashwagen, Fuhrberg and Vanice have put up a combined 6 points, and are currently -37. How do these rookies respond to adversity?
  

Sleepers
People who may produce more with more PT

• Hernadivic - StL - Driving his line with P/20 rates double his closest linemate, Hernadivic has shaken off a slow start to the season and began to produce lately.
  
• Eriksson - KEL - Respectable Point outputs, respectable +/- (-1), this rookie has played the least amount of minutes on his line, but has done well with what he's received.
  
• Peralta - COL - 13 points, -1, with a mediocre shooting percentage. Peralta hasn't quite driven play on his line, but with Urawa a regression candidate (18.42 shot %), Peralta could see his importance to the team increase quite quickly.
  

I'll do another one of these at the end of the season to see how Hernadivic and the other third liners did compared to one another. There's a lot more I could do too like see which lines should get more/less PT, who's weighing the lines down, stuff like that, maybe I'll add that stuff at the end of season report as I should actually do some work.

Note that lines were taken based off of each team's line breakdown on the sim as of August 23, 2019.

All stats were taken after August 23rd's sims.

Not the nicest/cleanest of work but hopefully it'll be of interest to some of you fellas out there (1304 words, good to be graded)