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*Scrufdaddy* · 01-18-2019, 02:36 AM

Slip McScruff's Greatest Hits, S45 Pre-Season Edition
by SD, for the Sim Herald

Hey folks, I'm coming at you today with the half-season overdue S45 Pre-season analysis of Slip McScruff's Greatest Hits. The IT nerds at the Sim Herald actually had this data ready for me shortly after I sent out the S44 Regular Season analysis but I was distracted and didn't write it up.

In that analysis, I made the following prediction:

Quote:Predictions
For the next season, Slip has focused on his Defense, Puck Handling, Skating, and a small bit of Strength. All of these ratings play into the effectiveness of his hits, so we should hope to see that effectiveness % keep climbing. We may see a regression in 3rd period performance as he did not drastically increase Endurance, however he will be playing top pair and PK minutes. With a dramatic improvement over the offseason, we should see a new bar being set with the S45 preseason with the new effects of top line minutes, but then Slip will be at his prime until he gets called up for the Jets. That means we'll have a chance to monitor a relatively stable state until his call up to see what patterns hold.

Link for the St. Louis Scoring. As mentioned in that prediction, Slip saw 893 minutes played (17.87 AMG) compared to the 621 of our last analysis. That's a 43.8% increase, so we can use that to compare raw numbers between data sets (like PIMs).

Similarly to that analysis, we also see an increase in offensive production which could affect the defensive stats. Where in the previous regular season, Slip had 10 points, he notched 22 in this pre-season. With the AMG adjustment, we'd expect 14 points, so we're still seeing an increase in offensive production per minute. Unfortunately, even with that offensive boost, Slip's goal differential slipped to -8 from the previous regular season's -2 while the Crow's had an identical +11 differential overall.

However, we shouldn't try to read too much into this because there were reportedly SHLers sneaking into the J to relive their glory days. For example, former Crow's captain Nicholas Williams (@Nictox) scored 27 points in 18 games. With Slip taking top line defensive minutes against SHL grade players, this analysis will mostly be for continuity and might not actually be indicative of his new skill potential.

Hits Analysis
Hit Stats:

Code:
1st: 22 strips on 26 hits

2nd: 32 strips on 42 hits

3rd: 25 strips on 28 hits

OT: 1 strip on 1 hit

Total: 80 strips on 97 hits (82.5%)

Previous Season Total: 46 strips on 56 hits (82.1%)

Hits Taken Stats:

Code:
1st: 15 strips on 18 hits taken

2nd: 13 strips on 17 hits taken

3rd: 8 strips on 11 hits taken

OT: 1 strip on 1 hit taken

Total: 37 strips on 47 hits taken (78.7%)

Previous Season Total: 20 strips on 23 hits taken (87.0%)

In this pre-season, we saw improvements in the rates for both HITs and HTTs, and the raw values for both exceeded the AMG adjustment. Most notably, Slip improved his retention rate by 8.2% on HTT and outpaced the AMG adjustment by 19 hits delivered. Unfortunately, the HTT raw value outpaced the HIT increase so Slip actually slid from a 2.4 HIT/HTT ratio to a 2.1 HIT/HTT ratio.

Additionally, I expected the 3rd period performance to drop off given the increase in AMG, but instead we saw Slip have a dramatic increase in performance. Previously, Slip had 15 strips for 18 hits in the 3rd period, but now we have 25 for 28. That's an increase in effectiveness by 6% but he also outpaced the AMG adjustment by 10% raw hits. And on the other side of the puck, Slip was 0 for 11 at retaining on HTT, but now we see 3 for 11.

Players Involved in the Hits
For Slip Hit targets, we have Collin Gibbles (@SpartanGibbles), David Fantobens (@Fantobens), Mika Mayfield (@BadWolf), and Arsene Arsenich (@Kris) all giving up 3 strips to Slip this pre-season, however Arsene Arsenich did it across 4 hits while everyone else was 3 for 3. Special mention to Roger Baston (@yoye) who shared a lot of ice time with Slip last season, but here they clashed 3 times with Baston giving up the puck twice.

For hits that Slip took, there is a crowd at 2 hits / 2 strips. Lillie Jacobs (@Benson), Cant Eykhil (@linsangeles), Dickens Makeout-King (@ManitobaMakeoutKing), Eero Niemi (@spooked), Rainbow Dash (@Eggy216), Pierre Laroche-Durocher (@lespoils), and Anthony Banthony (@Nebula) all robbed Slip twice in the pre-season. Rainbow Dash was traded to the Crows mid-season so hopefully there are no hard feelings in the locker room now that they are on the same side of the ice. There was only one person who hit Slip twice and didn't strip the puck both times. Slip's WJC line-mate, Nat Emerson (@Thelastheraclid), went 1 for 2 this pre-season, and was also someone who gave him trouble during the last regular season as well.

Penalty Analysis
Penalties by Period:

Code:
1st: 8

2nd: 8

3rd: 6

Total: 22

Previous Season Total: 19

Skating Penalties by Period: (defined as Holding or Tripping)

Code:
1st: 1

2nd: 3

3rd: 2

Total: 6

Previous Season Total: 4

Penalties by Type:

Code:
Hooking - 6

Roughing - 5

Tripping - 4

Holding - 2

Slashing - 2

Interference - 1

Elbowing - 1

Fighting - 1

First and foremost, big news, Slip's first fight. During game 132 against the Colorado Raptors, some post-finals aggression came out with a General Fight halfway through the third. Steven Moyer (@CanadianDuck), someone who is seeing a lot of fists recently, came out with a draw against Eric Vanderberg (@Vandy), while Slip beats up Lillie Jacobs. Perhaps there was some aggression from Jacobs' previous targeting of Slip.

As for the other penalties, we see a 15.7% increase in penalties, however that's actually a reduction in penalties per minute. If we scale up the previous season's penalties based on AMG, we would've expected 27 penalties, but only saw 22.

Again I was wrong about 3rd period performance, as Slip held constant on 3rd period penalties vs last season, however he did incur an additional Skating penalty in the 2nd and 3rd. Percentages do not work in his favor here as he took 4 Skating penalties last season, his new total of 6 is a 50% increase, wow!

He also continued the mysterious trend of High Sticking. We don't know what goes into that penalty, but we saw it go from 5 to 2, now to 0. He's doing something right, but who knows what that could be.

Predictions for my next analysis are pretty lame. Slip has reached his SMJHL peak, so we can expect the regular season to be more of the same performance we see here. I'm not quite sure what impact rapidly improving rookies will have on these stats. For example, here Slip is playing with the rookies at their worst, but over the regular season, they may be able to hold on to pucks a bit better, or out skate him to draw more penalties.

SD