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*Keven* · 08-11-2022, 02:57 PM

As we approach the end of the season, the biggest question on my mind is wether SFP will remain ahead of LAP for first place in the pacific division. However, this media isn't about the biggest question on my mind, it's about the second biggest. Will my player reach 100 points this season? And how many other players will also reach that mark? The last time we saw anyone reach this point was back in S62 when Ryuuji Minamino had a legendary 106 point, 60 goal season for the Syndicate. Steve Harrington came close with 98 points and that impressive but unfortunate feat will probably happen to quite a few players this season too. Since then, the highest mark has been 93 points. Today I'll be predicting who will reach the 100 point mark this season based on their current pace and the games they have remaining. As a reminder, a player needs a p/g pace of 1.515 to reach 100 points. I will also update the article when the season is complete to see how accurate the predictions were. Now, let's proceed with the list!

1. Luukas Lilja @retuperkele

91 pts, 58 gp, 1.569 p/g
Games remaining:

Lilja is by far the most likely player to hit 100 points this season and with the strength of LAP's remaining schedule it seems very likely that he might even beat the mark set by Minamino four seasons ago. After the panthers battle with the Stampede and Argonauts, the rest of their schedule looks like a promising opportunity for Lilja to accumulate easy points. Lilja doesn't even need to do anything spectacular to reach 100 points. If the current p/g pace of 1.569 is maintained without taking the strength of schedule into account, Lilja should hit 103 or 104 points. However, since this article is all about predictions, I'll go ahead and say Lilja will beat that mark and will finish the season with...

108 POINTS

2. Anton Mihailov @Mr. Finland Inferno

86 pts, 56 gp, 1.536 p/g
Games remaining: Renegades

AND

3. Pablo Salvatici @Jepox Inferno

86 pts, 56 gp, 1.536 p/g
Games remaining: Renegades

I can't talk about either of these next two players separately. They're on the same team, on the same line, and have the same number of points. In my opinion it is very likely that they end up tied with each other for the second greatest number of points this season behind Lilja. The players aren't identical by any means, but their fates are shared. I'm putting Mihailov a bit ahead of Salvatici here just because Mihailov has been more successful at even strength this season and Salvatici accumulating power play points over the last 10 games isn't guaranteed. I feel like the sustainable point-getting will be done at even strength where Mihailov has the edge. The schedule for the Inferno isn't ideal, but as the top team in the league, they should be able to get points against anyone. Based on point per game pace, these players should reach 101 points, but I'm looking to be optimistic in this article so I predict that both Mihailov and Salvatici will reach...

103 POINTS

4. Theo Kondos @Ohtaay syndicate

86 pts, 58 gp, 1.483 p/g
Games remaining:

The first of three players with 86 points in 58 games played, Kondos is the most likely to reach the 100 point mark. Having three games against the Renegades, one against the Blizzard, and one against the Steelhawks should help Kondos on the road to triple digits. Kondos also has the second most ice time of any player on this list due to having decent amounts of PP and PK time and getting a respectable amount of points in each category. This should ensure that he has plenty of opportunities to score against the easier opponents in the schedule to give some breathing room in case games against the tougher teams don't go so well. The current pace for Kondos put him at the 98 point mark, but when taking into account strength of schedule, I predict Kondos will have...

102 POINTS

5. Lev Lebedev @Lorec Rage

85 pts, 57 gp, 1.491 p/g
Games remaining: Platoon

Lebedev has the fourth highest point per game pace of all the players on this list, but the schedule for Manhattan isn't quite as nice as it is for Chicago. Similar to Salvatici, Lebedev is a player who performs really well on the power play. If the rage are able to draw penalties over these last few days, Lebedev should be able to shoot up the standings due to the current game in hand. I predict the road for Lev will have ups and downs over the next few days with a very feast and famine schedule ahead. Games against the Platoon, Forge, Wolfpack, and Dragons should provide decent scoring opportunities, but the stretch of games in the middle might be a bit more challenging. Facing the Aurora, Stars, Specters, and Inferno over those four games might slow the pace down a bit, but as mentioned earlier I want to be optimistic and say despite being on pace for 98 points so far, Lebedev will obtain...

101 POINTS

6. Kev Kevens @Keven pride

86 pts, 58 gp, 1.483 p/g
Games remaining:

Hey, it's me! Right after Lev, we have the similarly named Kev. The second of three players at the 86 point mark after 58 games, Kevens doesn't have the nice schedule that Kondos has, but still has a favourable schedule that should provide an opportunity to make up the lost distance to the 1.515 p/g required for 100. Aside from the first and last games of the season against the Specters, the stretch of Steelhawks to Monarchs should provide for plenty of scoring opportunities. Although he didn't make this list as the 11th highest scorer so far this season, an honourable mention goes out to Walton Stromberg who will play an instrumental role in Kevens' road to 100. As long as the Pride are able to handle the Wolfpack, which they were unable to do during the season opener, I see it as a fairly safe bet to say Kevens will reach...

100 POINTS

7. Long John Donair @GCool

81 pts, 58 gp, 1.397 p/g
Games remaining: Stampede

Maybe it's a bit of a surprise to see Long John Donair 7th on this list of 10 players, this is my prediction that goes furthest away from what the current point per game pace says about Donair's season. Although the trends say he's on pace to reach 92 points, Donair's position on this list speaks to the pure strength of Los Angeles' remaining schedule. The more I think about it, the more I can definitely see every Panthers player rocket up the standings during the last few sims of the season. As mentioned earlier, once the Panthers finish their game against the Argonauts, they are pretty much free to cruise for the rest of the season. If Donair is able to pull off some big games against the Renegades and Blizzard, I can see him getting all the way up to...

100 POINTS

8. Aleksander Kozlov @FlappyGiraffe

86 pts, 58 gp, 1.483 p/g
Games remaining:

The final player to join Kondos and Kevens at 86 points in 58 games is Aleksander Kozlov. Unfortunately, Kozlov doesn't have the luxury of playing against easy opponents that the other two players do. Kozlov's race to 100 points will mainly be played against the clock. If he can gain a surplus of points against the Monarchs, he should be able to race upwards in the following 5 games and have a shot at 100. My real concern here is the end of the season. If those last two games were against any other team, my prediction would safely put Kozlov at the 100 point mark. However, there is a very real possibility that the Barracuda struggle in those games and leave Kozlov falling short. As such, since his current pace is for 98 points I will regrettably have to predict him to reach...

98 POINTS

9. Noel Blanchet @JT3 Aurora

83 pts, 58 gp, 1.431 p/g
Games remaining: Wolfpack

As we near the end of the list and have seen the first sub-100 prediction, we know that the Blanchet's odds are probably slim. Currently having the second lowest point per game pace of anyone on the list with 1.431, the trends say Blanchet will finish the season with 94 points. The hope here lies in a schedule sprinkled with a few good opportunities. The two games against the Monarchs will be Noel's big chance to break out and try to inch closer to 100. It will be an uphill battle for sure, but every single player on this list has hope. All it takes is one or two big games while remaining on pace in all the others to reach the mark. With everything taken into account, I predict Noel Blanchet will finish the season with...

96 POINTS

10. Xavier Doom @JKortesi81

87 pts, 60 gp, 1.450 p/g
Games remaining: pride

Last, but possibly not least, we come to Xavier Doom. Currently sitting 2nd in the league in points at 87, it would seem like Doom would have better odds to reach 100 compared to the rest of the top 10. However, I predict that Doom may be doomed and will face a struggle in his quest for 100 points. The Specters have a limited number of games remaining and the teams that they are facing to end the season are no pushovers. Five of the last six games for Doom will be played against teams in the top 10 of the league, with the only exception being the Forge who sit at 13. The one route I see for Doom to reach the mark will be for him to translate his high shooting percentage to the power play. If his team is able to draw a lot of penalties and get him time on the ice I can see him chasing 100, but for now, on a pace of 96 points, I most likely see Xavier Doom ending up with...

95 POINTS

There we have it. My predictions say that 7 players will hit the 100 point mark this season, but since each and every game is unpredictable I can easily see the actual number being anywhere from 3 to 10. I hope that nobody takes these predictions personally. I want to see everyone succeed and for the three of you who I predicted to fall short, I very much want to see your players prove me wrong. 100 points in a season is an exciting milestone to reach and I'm looking forward to see so many of us have the chance to achieve it this season. I'll see you all again this weekend to see how things turned out!

Update with final results (2 ties broken via least ice time):

1. Luukas Lilja

(+0 from prediction)
Final points: 107 (-1 from prediction)
Final 8 games p/g: 2.000 (+0.431 vs first 58 games of the season)

The predictions start okay with Lilja remaining on top. His point per game pace during the final stretch was as good as I predicted it to be due to the Panthers' strength of schedule. Congratulations to Luukas Lilja for reaching the 100 point mark!

2. Theo Kondos syndicate

(+2 from prediction)
Final points: 104 (+2 from prediction)
Final 8 games p/g: 2.250 (+0.767 vs first 58 games of the season)

Kondos jumps 2 spots on my prediction list from 4th to 2nd by earning 2 more points than I expected. Once again, the schedule for Chicago was in his favour and allowed Theo to put up a massive 2.250 points per game in the home stretch. Congratulations to Theo Kondos for reaching the 100 point mark!

3. Anton Mihailov Inferno

(-1 from prediction)
Final points: 99 (-4 from prediction)
Final 10 games p/g: 1.300 (-0.236 vs first 56 games of the season)

Unfortunately, at just the third highest scoring skater, we've already fallen below the 100 point mark. With a slightly lower pace of 1.300 points per game during these final 10 games, Mihailov was unable to reach 100 poionts. Being 3rd in the league for scoring with 99 points is still a wonderful accomplishment and I congratulate Mihailov and the Inferno on the 50 win season!

4. Lev Lebedev Rage

(+1 from prediction)
Final points: 98 (-3 from prediction)
Final 9 games p/g: 1.444 (-0.047 vs first 57 games of the season)

Here's where my surplus of optimism during my predictions really starts to show. Lebedev met all expectations and maintained the point per game pace he was setting throughout the rest of the season. The balanced schedule didn't allow Lebedev to earn those extra two points to reach the 100 mark, but the Rage having the 4th highest scoring player in the league shows how far they've come since rebuilding.

5. Long John Donair

(+2 from prediction)
Final points: 97 (-3 from prediction)
Final 8 games p/g: 2.000 (+0.603 vs first 58 games of the season)

Similar to the other Panthers player Lilja, Long John Donair was able to maintain a great pace of 2.000 points per game during these final 8 games. My predictions had him slightly exceeding this mark, but it's still very impressive what Donair was able to accomplish considering he was slightly lower on the initial list with 1.4 points per game. Rising up to become 5th on the list is a wonderful end to the season for Donair.

6. Aleksander Kozlov

(+2 from prediction)
Final points: 96 (-2 from prediction)
Final 8 games p/g: 1.250 (-0.233 vs first 58 games of the season)

Although Kozlov earned fewer points than I predicted, climbing two spots on the list from 8th to 6th is a victory for this Tampa Bay player. The final 8 games of the season were slightly weaker than expected for Kozlov, putting up 1.250 points per game instead of maintaining 1.482, but him and the Barracuda were able to end the season on a high note with a 4-0 shutout over the Inferno which included 2 points for Kozlov.

7. Xavier Doom

(+3 from prediction)
Final points: 96 (+1 from prediction)
Final 6 games p/g: 1.500 (+0.050 vs first 60 games of the season)

Doom was able to battle upwards and have a strong finish to the season for the Specters despite the difficult schedule. He remained steadily on pace, putting up an even 1.500 points per game during his final 6 games. This was in fact a bit stronger than his previous pace of 1.450, showing that he was determined to finish the season strong. Although he earned just one point more than I predicted, finishing 7th on the list means he climbed the most spots of anyone.

8. Pablo Salvatici Inferno

(-5 from prediction)
Final points: 95 (-8 from prediction)
Final 10 games p/g: 0.900 (-0.636 vs first 56 games of the season)

Even though the Inferno had a successful home stretch and finished at the top of the league with 50 wins, Salvatici wasn't so fortunate. Our first of two big shocks on the list, poor Pablo put up a point per game pace of less than 1 in the final 10 games. Even though he and Mihailov were tied going into this, Salvatici missed out on four crucial points that made all the difference on this list. 95 points is still a great total, but I imagine it's stings a bit given the expectations.

9. Noel Blanchet Aurora

(+0 from prediction)
Final points: 95 (-1 from prediction)
Final 8 games p/g: 1.500 (+0.069 vs first 58 games of the season)

Finally, another really solid prediction. Blanchet performed as expected in all aspects over the last few days. He remained #9 on the list, scored just one fewer point than predicted, and maintained a very consistent scoring pace during this time. Similar to Lebedev with the Rage, it's very impressive to see an Aurora player accumulate so many points in a season when the team is just coming out of a tough rebuild. These final sims were a victory for the player, the team, and also for my predictions.

11. Kev Kevens pride

(-5 from prediction)
Final points: 91 (-9 from prediction)
Final 8 games p/g: 0.625 (-0.858 vs first 58 games of the season)

When I initially wrote these predictions, I stopped after the top 10 because it made sense on many levels. It seemed like it was safe to say the top 10 players of the league would remain the top 10 by the end of the season. Kevens ends up 11 on the list because he got passed by Mats Marner in points. Of course, since this is my own player I have a bit more to say about how the final 8 games of the season went. I predicted Kevens to reach the 100 point mark due to the strength of schedule for the Pride. Games against the Blizzard and Monarchs would surely be a good time to earn points right? Unfortunately this would not be the case. Although the Pride put up a solid 17 goals during those two games, Kev would earn no points. Of course this was an incredible season for both my player and the team, but it was quite disappointing to crash and burn this badly in the points department after writing the first portion of the article.

To summarize, it was fun to try and predict how the season would end for all these players, especially since many of us had the potential to reach 100 points. I'm disappointed that only two of us ended up getting there, but it makes the accomplishment that much more special for those who did. In the end, two players (Kondos and Doom) scored more points than I predicted for total of +3, while the other 8 players scored less points than I predicted, for a total of -31. Most of this deficit came from Salvatici and Kevens, but the difference between my predictions and reality for all players shows that I was a bit too optimistic going into this. Once again, congratulations to Luukas Lilja and Theo Kondos for breaking the mark! I hope many more players will experience the thrill of approaching 100 points for many seasons to come.

3176 words

***Anthique*** · 08-11-2022, 04:04 PM

The offensive this season is crazy... It's the same thing in the SMJHL but a little bit less.

**Lime** · 08-11-2022, 04:07 PM

dont touch my 98 points you animals

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