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ec06aaj · 11-24-2023, 05:08 PM

I have to preface this by saying that I have precisely zero input or insight into the Falcons' drafting processes, this article is about as likely to be 0% accurate as it is to accidentally give away all of the Detroit war room's plans. These are my vibes and mine alone, and exactly no plans should be based on what I have to say here. With the eighth overall pick, Detroit should select...

Centre
There are a handful of centres that look particularly choice in this class and it seems unlikely that all four of the names in my head will have come off the board by the eighth pick. Pushed for a choice, I'd argue that the pick depends fairly heavily on whether you want a pass-first player or more of a scoring threat: if you fall into the former camp, Chicago native Charlie Slurpe has an excellent eye for a good pass and sharp game vision, whereas the better threat to match goals with assists is all-rounder Bean Beanman Jr. In truth, I suspect Beanman is likely to go higher - not first overall, but in the first few picks - and an element Slurpe adds is a left-handed shot. An old boxing idiom says "southpaws should be drowned at birth", something thought to date back all the way to the 1910s and reflecting how so many boxers hate fighting against left-handers because it forces them away from their established patterns of defense - the same can easily be said for hockey, where left-handed players force opposing goaltenders out of their comfort zone.

Right Wing
A lot of the pre-draft buzz has revolved around Teemu Salami as a high pick with the potential to become an elite winger and it's easy to see why: physically, Salami looks ready to hit the ice and not miss a step on opening night, so even if there are questions about the accuracy of his shot simple physicality will get him off to a good start. The same could be said about Mia Lavoie, the Canadian youngster who stands 5'7 but tips the scales at around 200 pounds. However, the eventual aim of a first-round pick should be to find a player who can fit in on the top line of a team and alongside the players you've already got there. If you wanted to pick a right winger, that means somebody who can enable Will Tomlander and Emil Karlsson, and that means to me, the best shout is Jack Keigan, the Australian nicknamed "Jumpshot". Tomlander and Karlsson are both fine passers and smart players, and Keigan offers a combination of a razor-sharp wristshot and a big body suitable for screening opposing goaltenders.

Left Wing
Using the same line of argument, in a left winger the Falcons will eventually be looking for somebody to play with Tomlander and Marek Carda, and to me that suggests looking for the player with the highest offensive upside regardless of their defensive characteristics. Carda is developing into a two-way forward who plays bigger than he is, and a winger like that can cover for somebody offensively skilled but defensively lacking. One name that jumps out is Mary Hollywood on the simple grounds that it doesn't matter how strong or weak your shot is if you can reliably get open in dangerous areas, which Hollywood does with a combination of speed and game vision. Andrade La Sombra offers a lot of similar skills but, in all likelihood, is another player who is going to be off the board by the eighth pick. The other name I'd consider is James Madison - if you're willing to hold your nose and deal with a player who will be giving up almost a foot in height to most of the league, you'll come away with somebody who looks like he has decided early to pile his points into the sniper skill tree.

Defense
I'm lumping both sides of defense into one for the simple reason that I can. Applying the same logic, whoever Detroit pick at 8 if they choose to go defensive is smoebody who will likely end up playing with Simo Jaaskelainen or Stormlord Imotekh, and that choice by itself will inform the pick. If it's a partner for Simo that the Falcons are looking for, the ideal would be to find a player better with his stick than the Finn and arguably somebody who doesn't need to be a big-bodied player as well. Olīvija Agate would make for a interesting contrast, as somebody with a lightning-fast turn of speed could cover the bigger and less agile Simo. If they want to pick up somebody to match with Imotekh, who gives up the excellent passing in favour of a harder and more frustrating checking game, Frederik Gronlund would offer a reasonable complement but Demir Bellona would offer a lot more offensive punch; that said, I suspect both Gronlund and Bellona would be available later on in the draft, so perhaps are not ideal targets at 8. The blueliner with the most buzz is Carter Crutchfield, but I haven't gone into him because I highly doubt he'll slip far enough to be a target - if by some dark miracle he does end up available at eight, he's a player that you should just pick regardless of position.

Goaltender
Sadly, Wayne Holloway's time in Detroit is drawing to a close - after three seasons in the Falcons crease he finally tasted the playoffs, and if anything is going to motivate the players it'll be wanting to give their talismanic goalie a good send-off. It's difficult to justify taking a goaltender at eight because of the often quoted adage that goaltending is voodoo, impossible to predict and even more impossible to understand, so this may be a situation where Detroit would be justified trading back into the second round rather than reaching. Of the players in the class, my pick would be Roman Cechmanek II for the simple reason that I believe goaltending is 75% mental and 25% physical, and the evidence from their careers so far suggest that RC2 has the mental fortitude to keep himself going better than his classmates.

So, with the eighth overall pick, Detroit should select...
As I said, I feel that taking a goaltender would be too much of a reach to justify with a reasonably valuable pick. There are no obvious holes that are going to need filling here unless one of the big league franchises decide not to let one of the most recent picks marinate in the SMJHL further. As well as Holloway, Zedward Zilliams, The Murray and Trevor Lahey are all going to reach the end of their junior eligibility soon, but even that doesn't help isolate a single position. I'm inclined to lean away from picking a defenseman there as well - while Zilliams will be graduating, the Falcons will have another year with Mephi Morgonstjarn and Dunkler Sowerwine before the situation becomes an emergency. The left wing is a particular area of strength, so eliminating that reduces it down to centre or right wing and, at eighth overall, I don't think Bean Beanman Jr. is going to be available.

Stop stalling and make a choice!
Fine! With the caveat that this could be complete nonsense and destroyed as soon as the first picks are made, I'd look at picking Jack Keigan. Happy now?

Yes

[1324 words, and apologies if I've just ruined your drafting plans @Aephino]