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***By-Tor*** · 02-07-2024, 10:52 AM

Foreword:

I will try to be diligent and keep up with the two teams a week as they roll out, but knowing my history, I may get tired and not continue after the second team. If I am successful in my quest, the previous teams' articles will be listed at the bottom of each subsequent article. As is the intent of this team spotlight week, it is my intent with this series to do a closer look into the "health" of each franchise. I'll get into what that all means later, but for now, please accept my attempt at an SHL-level deep dive. If you have any differences of opinion or find the series cool, please let me know in the comments below.

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Health of the Franchise: Edmonton Blizzard
[Image: Edmonton-min.png]

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Format for Analysis

In order to ascertain the "Health" of an SHL franchise, I think it is logical that you must analyze all the different aspects of what make a franchise function. For this study, "health" will be determined by the integrity of the following factors: Current On-Ice Roster, GM Leadership, Locker Room Culture, Prospects, Draft Capital, Recent Performance, and a final category I call "FHM8 Special Sauce." For each category, a rating of 1-10 will be assigned for how strong a team appears to be in that particular aspect. For Current On-Ice Roster, we will look at the strengths and weaknesses of the three position groups as they stand today, mostly from a numbers/TPE standpoint. For GM Leadership, we will take a look at the GMs - who they are, how well they have handled assets, and the experience they have. For Locker Room Culture, - this is a hard one - we will attempt to grade the group of users (Roster and Prospect) based on league activity; since we aren't in the locker rooms themselves, this will most likely end up being the most incorrect of article assumptions. For Prospects, we look at the TPE and promise of the junior cabinet. For Draft Capital, we will assess the current draft picks available to the team for future development. For Historical Performance, we will look at the past few seasons, how they have turned out, and a brief history of the franchise. In the final "FHM8 Special Sauce" category, we will look at core longevity (chemistry), GMs' proclivity to FHM, and a perceived luck factor. After all ratings are assessed, we will present the team with a final score.

Category 1: Current On-Ice Roster

EGGWARD ELRIC (1899) - Jack St. Clair (1979) - Oles Kobliska (1593)
Luke Laraque (1890) - Evan Winter (1723) - Benjamin Surkhi-Ze'ev (1869)
Alvin Wong (1352) - Julian Eaglesong (1285) - Theodore Svatos (1169)

Emil Egli (1887) - Isaac Forty-One (1879)
Luca Hunziker (1310) - Louise St. Martin (1735)
Ryuuji Kawashima (957) - Luc Blouin (1110)

Justin Time (1813)
Isabella Bouchard (341)

As we all know, Edmonton has a very skilled roster. Currently sporting the league's second highest TPE team, Edmonton definitely has the roster to win a Cup. With the highest average forward TPE (1606), third highest defense TPE (1456), and T-3 highest starting goalie TPE, there are few weak spots. Coming off a recent S73 Challenge Cup, this roster is mostly the same as that crew. Edmonton has a fantastic 1-2 punch both on D and up top. Interestingly, it's their second line centered by Evan Winter than did most of the damage for them last year. I expect for that trend to continue as history often repeats itself. Hard on their heels, though, will be Jack St. Clair - the second highest TPE player in the league in S75.

Having such a great roster, though, forces a team to flirt with the cliff of regression. Coming into S75, Edmonton is the fifth oldest team in the league, with an average player season class of 65.1. With the league average being 66.4, Edmonton is significantly older than a number of other teams in their division. While numbers don't lie, their bottom D pair of Luc Blouin and Ryuuji Kawashima do pull the team down some in terms of age. As S58 and S59 players, respectively, they are at least 5 years older than any of their other teammates. Only 4 of their 17 players have not felt regressions' hard pull, most of them hitting their first regression in the past three off-seasons. While scary, that really doesn't affect their ability to win now. Their only real weakness is the lack of a skilled backup goaltender.

Grade: Even though hard regression is breathing down their necks, the current product on the ice today is undeniable. They will win a lot of games. 9/10

Category 2: GM Leadership

The current GM of Edmonton is HabsFanFromOntario. The current Co-GM is Eggcracker. HFFO took over the reins from boom in S65 and has taken the team to new heights. In what will be nearly two irl years of leadership at the end of S75, HFFO has not shied away from roster moves that make his team better. As evidenced here, there is no fear going after a player they think will make the team better. And in most cases, they've struck gold. Securing Wong, Winter, Forty-One, and Elric in the past few seasons, some of their best players have come through trades. Now, I'm not going to sit here and go through every one of their signings and trades for the past ten seasons, but what I can tell from what I see is a leadership team that is involved in their roster and knows how to pull the strings to get things done. Some things may pan out, others not so much, but the willingness to make things happen is paramount in my book. And taking a quick look through Eggcracker's topics, I can see they value team participation through efforts like The Blizzies. Both of their involvement I'm sure is appreciated and would make up one of the better duos in the league.

Grade: While I'm not an expert by any means, I feel like you can tell the difference between a GM that cares and puts in the work vs one that doesn't. 9/10

Category 3: Locker Room Culture

I think it is a true statement in the SHL to say good users breed other good users and those users coalesce together. While I'm not in their locker room, I can assume that active users on the forum equals active users in discord (most of the time). Look at this locker room:

[Image: image.png?ex=65d4bc1a&is=65c2471a&hm=fd9...height=597]

[Image: image.png?ex=65d4bc1a&is=65c2471a&hm=fd9...height=597]

You will be hard-pressed to find any other locker room in the league with more all-star users than what you see above. While I myself had only had real conversations with like 4 of them, there is serious name recognition here and I can see a number of people fully invested into SHL. From IIHF to site development, simmers, and junior GMs, the users in the locker room are top tier. I would love a look into their discord to see if it is as poppin' as I imagine it could be.

Grade: Again, bravo. 9/10.

Category 4: Prospects

Here's where we pump the brakes. Edmonton currently has zero prospects. Major league roster success has completely emptied the junior cabinet. With the team soon hitting hard regression, this does not bode well for the health of the franchise. Sure, players can be acquired via trade, but home grown talent is how you build a franchise that lasts. I would talk about their prospects, but, alas, there are none. Take note, Edmonton, something to improve on.

Grade: 0/10.

Category 5: Draft Capital

[Image: image.png?ex=65d4bed9&is=65c249d9&hm=7ef...y=lossless]

[Image: image.png?ex=65d4bed9&is=65c249d9&hm=7ef...y=lossless]

Looking beyond the lack of currently drafted players, Edmonton has an exactly average bank of draft picks. If you shuffle everything around, There are five 1sts, 2nd, 3rds, etc. over the next five seasons. That forfeited 1st for next year is an unfortunate spot on their record, a pick they really need. As long as they continue to play it smart and draft the right people, it should work out. They may not end up with a roster of all-stars like they have now, but they at least will have some quality bodies. One must also keep in mind that Edmonton's success will push those picks to the bottom of their respective rounds, hurting value. All that said, for a team that is as successful as they are right now, it's pretty impressive to see that many picks. Usually top teams are cleared out. But compared to a rebuilding team, nothing to write home about.

Grade: Pick value is low due to success, and the pick arsenal is mostly average. 5/10.

Category 6: Recent Performance

Edmonton has done very well the past four seasons. After only winning one playoff series between S62 - S70, Season 71 saw Edmonton finish sixth in the league and make it to the Conference Finals. They followed up that appearance with another Conference Final appearance, once again falling to the Winnipeg Aurora. They finally broke through in S73, trouncing the Aurora in the Conference Finals in 5 games and going on to win the Cup over Philadelphia. Last season, S74, saw a slight step back in the playoffs despite finishing first overall in the regular season standings. Edmonton ran into a very hot San Francisco team and were unable to contain the Pride.

With the management change in S65, Edmonton went through a hard rebuild in S66 and has since been on the upswing ever since. Edmonton has improved its regular season performance every season since that rebuild in S66 and has nearly improved upon its playoff performances year after year as well. Other than a hiccup in S70 and S74, Edmonton has seen a perfect climb to the top of the league. It is very important for them to follow up their misstep in S74 with a strong showing in S75, lest they be labeled as "has-been" and start their decline.

[Image: image.png?ex=65d5fe6a&is=65c3896a&hm=a86...y=lossless]

[Image: image.png?ex=65d5fe6a&is=65c3896a&hm=a86...y=lossless]

Grade: After coming off a league leading regular season and some long playoff runs including a S73 Cup, they are set up for current success. 9/10

Category 7: "FHM8 Special Sauce"

This is a fun one. Some teams seem to have a knack for pushing the right buttons in FHM to always perform well or get lucky when needed. It is almost a requirement to have the special sauce to win a Challenge Cup. There's just so much that can go wrong in the playoffs and only the lucky few can escape the carnage. Oftentimes, this shows up as goalie success in the playoffs, or one line just tearing up the league. Justin Time has done well most of the time, but has stumbled (or his team let him down) in a few recent occasions. Edmonton is not really one of those teams that has continued success after success in the sims, but did have a bit of luck in S73 with that cup. They didn't have the luck vs SFP last year, but do show promise in how convincing some of their wins are in the regular season. From what I've seen, the sim engine doesn't hate them, but it doesn't love them either. Pretty fair.

Grade: 6/10

Grand Totals

After looking at all the categories, here's how "healthy" the Blizzard seem to be:
Current On-Ice Roster: 9/10
GM Leadership: 9/10
Locker Room Culture: 9/10
Prospects: 0/10
Draft Capital: 5/10
Historical Performance: 9/10
"FHM8 Special Sauce": 6/10

Grand Total: 47/70

With a final score of 47/70, I would grade Edmonton as being "mostly healthy." While poised for success now, there are some concerns about that nearing cliff. My recommendations for Edmonton is to try to build up that prospect pool and draft capital while they can, before they are plunged into another deep rebuild. Easier said than done, right? I do commend their leadership on how well they have shaped the team and wish them all the success going forward (except against my Aurora).

Credit to enigmatic, Merica, and tweedledunn for sigs

*Carpy48* · 02-08-2024, 03:39 AM

I know writing these takes a lot of time, but I hope you'll keep them up. Great work. Will be interesting to see all teams covered. Perhaps the next ones will take less time.