Quote:Originally posted by Waters+Feb 15 2018, 03:00 PM--><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1' id='QUOTE-WRAP'><tr><td>QUOTE (Waters @ Feb 15 2018, 03:00 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteEBegin-->
sleepy is after ghost cause ghost is after him[/b]

Yeah I guess but it seems like the best way to deal with that is to point out all the inconsistencies in accusing him not by going on a crusade against the person we're most confident in, you know? Him retracting recently helps for sure.

Quote:Originally posted by Waters@Feb 15 2018, 03:00 PM<br />ghost called nour's role and unless hffo wants to declare mayor, we know he was right, so that's basically a seer confirmation

Agreed. As close to confirmation as we'll ever get.

Quote:Originally posted by Waters@Feb 15 2018, 03:00 PM<br />i honestly cant establish a valid narrative for sleepy being wolf. Who would be wolf with him? Gooney voted sleepy, you voted sleepy, ace voted sleepy,  hffo voted sleepy. The options of who would even be wolf with sleepy are insanely limited.

Again, 100% agreed. I brought this up in my post last night and this is the reason I haven't voted Sleepy yet today. It really doesn't add up unless they're doing a great job concealing their motives.

I think this is also true of me, though, no? Maybe it's just me but I've felt like I'm out on island past day or so. If I'm a wolf, who's with me?

Quote:Originally posted by Waters@Feb 15 2018, 03:00 PM<br />Conversely, if gooney and you were both wolves, gooney probably wouldn't have tried to out you. Could have been a ploy knowing that ghost was seer to try to discredit him, but durden confirmed that you were right.

If me and gooney were both wolves we could've cooked up that accusation in werewolf discord but I'm not sure what good that would've done for us besides maybe buying me a tiny bit of goodwill for being right? And a lot of good that's done me.

idk I might not have understood that part fully


<!--QuoteBegin-Waters@Feb 15 2018, 03:00 PM
Every single person in this game has given a reason to think that they're inno, in my opinion. Werewolves have played really strongly but I'm going to have to go with gut for now. If someone else has a possible vote that isn't sleepy or ghost i'm all ears.

I feel like you might be conceding that you're a valid target to try and get people on your side. I'm open to retracting.[/quote]
If that's my plan it's not working very well lmao. I don't really see an exit strategy for myself here if I'm a wolf. But a poorly executed plan is still a plan.

Tbh if I'm in your shoes I'd do the same. I think with how far we've narrowed down the suspect list, it seems to me that it really doesn't make sense for me to concede as a wolf and attract attention to myself when I could've just hung back as accusations were getting bandied about... but also that's exactly what I'd want you to think so idk. Ace's work this morning did a great job framing me and imo looking at it objectively I don't think there's enough reasonable doubt for me to avoid the noose tonight or tomorrow at the very latest. Plus since I'm expendable I have the least to lose by promoting dispassionate evaluation of the evidence and acknowledging the strength of the case against me - and at the very least I think it's likely that my posts and suspicions have been helping the wolves so... sorry about that.

Obviously I'd like to live but unless a bombshell drops tonight I remain convinced that lynching me is in the villagers' best interest from a probability of being a wolf vs probability of being a villager perspective, weighted by the respective impacts of being wrong.




As for my own suspicions:
-Sleepy. I still have some suspicions but after the way the vote went down this morning and the way he's acquitted himself throughout the day I'm less sure now than before. Due to Ace's actions, though, the end result was me looking guilty and him looking more innocent - which may be exactly what Ace wanted? Idk like I said I'm not there yet, that would've been a hell of a gambit and I don't think the wolves needed to be that risky. He's the only one besides me I think could be worth a lynch tonight based on what we know now. NVM NONE OF THIS MATTERS NOW I DON'T THINK IF WE'VE NARROWED THE ALPHA DOWN TO 3.
-Insayne and HFFO. Boy is this ever the game to hang back and let us go crazy. Low suspicion but suspicion nonetheless.

I'm less sold on:
-Waters. I don't see the case here at all but the simple virtue of declaring vanilla garners some suspicion since I think we can all agree that as of now the wolves are most likely to declare as vanilla, right?
-ml002, Gooney, and Nour declared roles today and haven't been challenged. They deserve some suspicion of course but I think they're plausibly villagers until we have a reason to doubt them. Without the declaration, ml002 to some extent and particularly Nour would've gotten added to the "hang back" suspicion since they've mostly let the rest of us do the steering. I'm not even sure if either has voted and held that vote through to the gallows.

As I see it 5 people are "confirmed" villagers through either an uncontested role claim or Ghosts's seering:
Ghost, ml002, Mook, Nour, Gooney

5 people are claimed villagers:
Beaver, Sleepy, Insayne, HFFO (until he declares), Waters

With Ace and gala as turncoat and jester.

As long as we're reasonably certain that nobody in the first group of 5 is a wolf then villagers win if they work their way through the second group. It will likely be 6 and 4 when HFFO declares but worst case scenario he was just pretending to be important and declares as vanilla, putting him in the suspect group.

So if I'm lynched tonight and I'm a villager (again, worst case scenario for the village):
I die and Gooney roleblocks someone else in the 2nd group, giving us a 75% chance of Ghost dying and bringing us to 4 and 4. We have a 50% chance of discovering the alpha wolf while saving Ghost and that's game over baby.

If there is a wolf killing then the person Gooney roleblocked is not the alpha wolf but may still be one of the two sidekick wolves.

The next night we lynch one of the 3 people Gooney did not roleblock which is very likely to be a wolf (66% if 3 wolves survived the previous night - worst case scenario). ml002 or Gooney are eaten depending on who the wolves guess will be un-doctored.

If Gooney successfully roleblocks it's game over or if ml002 predicts correctly (or the wolves predict incorrectly) the villagers have numbers and can simply lynch the rest of Group 2 away to victory.

Worst case we lynch another villager and ml002 is eaten bringing us to 3 and 3 at which point we lose, I think. If not, we would at least know who the wolves are and Gooney gets 1 more chance at roleblocking the alpha which is down to 50/50 (or ml002 gets one more shot at doctoring their target if Gooney is eaten the night before). We only get to this point if every domino falls against us and all 3 wolves survive the next 2 nights - which is a 10% chance at worst.

So even in tonight's worst case scenario (lynching a villager) we have several avenues to victory, which is why I'm not terribly upset about getting lynched. The winning play here would be to lynch 2 people in the suspect group that have the highest probability of including a wolf and looking at the evidence I think that's me and Sleepy, so taking both of us out in some order should win the game.

I could be wrong, check my thought process. But those permutations were running through my head all day and this took like an hour and a half to type out and puzzle through so I think I have it pretty close to accurate. Something that occured to me just now was "what if the wolves deliberately don't attack tomorrow night to frame whoever Gooney roleblocks, hoping he picks wrong." I don't think that would make a difference since we'd just be continuing to work through the suspect group but I may be overlooking something there and my brain hurts.

Definitely fact check me on this, I cannot stress this enough because if I'm off about any part it would shift the odds. This is all predicated on HFFO being suspect, too. If he passes inspection I don't think there's a path to victory for the wolves so long as we stay calm and work systematically through the suspect group.

Anyway that's how I'm looking at it. To recap:
50% chance of winning tonight even if HFFO is suspect AND we lynch an innocent.
100% chance (or close to it) of winning tonight if we lynch a wolf or if HFFO is not suspect.
100% chance (or close to it) of winning tomorrow if we lynch an innocent tonight, Ghost dies, then we lynch a wolf tomorrow.

Even if Gooney and ml002 whiff on their abilities both nights:
Assuming 5 suspects and 3 wolves we have a 10% chance of lynching 2 innocents.
Assuming 4 suspects and 3 wolves we have a 0% chance of lynching 2 innocents.
Assuming 5 suspects and 2 wolves we have a 9.9% chance of lynching 3 innocents
Assuming 4 suspects and 2 wolves we have a 0% chance of lynching 3 innocents

All we need is 1 wolf lynch or 1 ability to hit and we're golden.

Ok time to read the posts I missed while typing and thinking:
1. I totally forgot about HFFO and Waters getting roleblocked, eliminating them from alpha suspicion. Thanks Mook. That leaves 3 suspected alphas max, we lynch one and roleblock another tonight. Edited the above to reflect that. That helps us even more.
2. Ok I don't think any of the other posts change anything.

Edit: changed the section about being suspicious of Sleepy to better reflect what we know. It's a numbers game now. The beginning of this post feels so long ago.