Login

JayWhy · 06-19-2018, 10:54 PM

<div align="center"> [Image: goalies_6401.jpg]

A DEEP DIVE INTO AWARDS SEASON; MCBRIDE TALK

It's that time of the year again: Award Season. Everybody gets dressed up in their finest suit and tie, step onto the red carpet and totally bomb when trying to answer who they're wearing. Yes, it's the most wonderful time to focus in on the minor details of life.

Speaking of focusing in, this season has seen a predicament for the awards â€“ there wasn't exactly one standout goaltender. Instead, the goaltending was more so a grouping of great and grouping of not-so-great goalies at the top and bottom of the league. This is where we come in, to help determine the goaltenders who had done the best in different statistical categories. To begin, I'm going to give a few definitions.

Quote:[b]Goals Saved Against Average (GSAA) - This is taking the average save percentage of the league as a whole and applying it to the shots faced by each individual goalie (xSVs and xGA), then subtracting this from the number of goals they actually allowed. The higher the number, the better they did.

Quality Starts (QS) -- Looking at each start individually, we analyze the save percentage of the goaltender in each game. Every game the goaltender has a save percentage above the league average (.900) or above the replacement level -- which is represented by the average save percentage of all goaltenders to play 20 games or fewer this season -- (.890) but only allowed two goals in games in which it was below the league average.

Quality Starts Percentage (QS%) -- Obvious in some ways, taking the number of starts the goaltender had and dividing by the number of quality starts they had, then multiplying by 100. This will tell us how often a goaltender gave their team an opportunity to win, or conversely, if the goaltender may have been helped along by their team more often.

BBP% -- Named after the older member BBP and developed by myself and <a href='index.php?showuser=121' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-50'>teztify</a>, this statistic is utilizing the zone time output by the sim to determine possession percentages. It's combining the puck control time in the offensive and defensive zones and dividing it by the combined zone time in the offensive and defensive zones a team has, then multiplying by 100. [/b]

Those will be our primary statistics we utilize to analyze these goaltenders, looking at the puck control of their team to determine zone times as well as focusing on what they can control. The goaltenders we will be investigating in this piece are Artom Zhumbayev, Michael McFadden, Beaujeaux Biscuit, Richard C. Hocolate and Jason Aittokallio. Let's begin.

[Image: Connor+Hellebuyck+Winnipeg+Jets+v+Toront...1m9qNl.jpg]

[Image: Connor+Hellebuyck+Winnipeg+Jets+v+Toront...1m9qNl.jpg]

ARTOM ZHUMBAYEV
QUALITY STARTS: 26 (59.09% of 44 starts)
GSAA: 13

We start with Artom Zhumbayev of the Winnipeg Jets. Zhumbayev had an interesting story in that he was the slowest to hit 10 Quality Starts on the season, hitting the number in Game 149 of the season, his 21st start. However, from there he picked up speed and tied for second in the league by the end of the season with 26 quality starts with another goaltender on this list. His GSAA also ties with the same goaltender for fourth in the SHL. That goaltender will come up next.

Looking at team play with Zhumbayev, his team managed to lead the league in possession time with a 52.09% BBP%. Holding the puck in the offensive zone more regularly, they were by far the highest scoring team in the league averaging 4.44 goals per game. While Zhumbayev was no slack in his own zone, it appears his team was available every night to help him out even when the going got tough, which could be part of where his quality starts aren't quite league leading despite his stellar win-loss record.

Zhumbayev seems like a stunning competitor, but ultimately is just outside of the upper echelon in terms of the advanced statistics. I would consider him fourth place of the five goaltenders we're reviewing.

[Image: Cam_Talbot_Extension.jpg]

MICHAEL MCFADDEN
QUALITY STARTS: 26 (59.09% of 44 starts)
GSAA: 13

Yet again, we encounter very similar numbers heading into this one. Michael McFadden of the Edmonton Blizzard had a strong season, tying his long-time rival in Winnipeg in the advanced numbers. McFadden was the second slowest to hit 10 Quality Starts, taking 19 starts to reach it in Game 144, only five games before Zhumbayev's tenth.

Edmonton was not content to have McFadden carry the load entirely, despite him tying for second in Quality Starts and third in QS%. They were a possession-heavy team who placed fourth in BBP% with a 51.40%. They had heavy offensive zone time and managed to place third in the SHL in team scoring. Overall, they had a stellar year in terms of team performance.

With McFadden having equal numbers to Zhumbayev, but reaching them faster and with a slightly worse team (albeit the margin being very slim), I would place McFadden as third place among the five goaltenders, narrowly edging out Zhumbayev. I was tempted to have them tie yet again, but after facing more shots, McFadden deserves to get ahead in something.

[Image: 7783767.jpg?size=sw620x65]

RICHARD C. HOCOLATE
QUALITY STARTS: 23 (52.27% of 44 starts)
GSAA: 14

Here is where our more interesting cases come into play. Richard C. Hocolate of the Calgary Dragons had a fine year in terms of GSAA. With 14, he ties for second in the league with the next goaltender we'll discuss. However, for Quality Starts, he was outpaced in percentage by his back-up Thaddeus Prince and ultimately came last among the five goaltenders we reviewed, which is typical of a goaltender who may be helped along more by a strong team.

However, things get even tougher to decipher there. Calgary placed eighth in the league in BBP% with a 50.19%. They were still more to the positive than the negative, however they're heading the bottom half of the league, which is never a good look. Their days of dominating the puck may be behind them, and in turn it's caused problems for their goaltending and their place in the standings. While they're expected to continue to be a top team in the league, this is a bad look into the future for a team that historically has been so stellar.

Despite the team play being lower-end against his competition here, I can't justify Hocolate rising up the ranks when he had so much fewer quality starts than his competitors. I've ranked Hocolate fifth among the five goaltenders.

[Image: James+Reimer+Nashville+Predators+v+Flori...OV8ZBl.jpg]

[Image: James+Reimer+Nashville+Predators+v+Flori...OV8ZBl.jpg]

BEAUJEAUX BISCUIT
QUALITY STARTS: 28 (63.64% of 44 starts)
GSAA: 14

Our Quality Start leader has arrived. Beaujeaux Biscuit of the West Kendall Platoon leads the way with 28 quality starts this season, a massive total. He comes in second in quality start percentage, and shows that he's a consistent goaltender by giving his team a chance to win night in and night out. His GSAA is tied for second in the league with Hocolate, but his numbers don't seem inflated by team play thanks to his quality starts percentage.

Speaking of team play, Beaujeaux still enjoyed steady team play similar to that of Hocolate. West Kendall ranked sixth in the league in BBP% with a 50.50%, keeping their heads above water every step of the way and landing just ahead of their Challenge Cup Finals opponents, the Los Angeles Panthers. They were a steady team in the same way Calgary was, nothing spectacular at this point, but good to get the job done. Beaujeaux led the way, helping to keep his team in the fight for the most starts of any goalie and second most often by percentage of starts of any goalie.

With his spectacular quality start percentage and helping to lead the way for a largely middling team possession-wise, I've ranked Beaujeaux tied for first in my ranking of these five. That's right, we have a tie, which I'll get to in a moment.

[Image: henrik_lundqvist.jpg?quality=90&strip=al...410&crop=1]

[Image: henrik_lundqvist.jpg?quality=90&strip=al...410&crop=1]

JASON AITTOKALLIO
QUALITY STARTS: 24 (68.57% of 35 starts)
GSAA: 20

Far and away the leader in GSAA by over 6 above second place and the leader in quality start percentage, Jason Aittokallio of the Manhattan Rage is the last goaltender we'll be looking at. Despite having nine fewer starts than his contemporaries on this list, Jason was a revelation in net for Manhattan and may have played a part in their futility at being futile. He gave the team a chance to win more often than any other goaltender by percentage of starts. Saving 20 goals more than a league average replacement-level goaltender, he was incredible in net.

From the team aspect, things look even tighter for Aittokallio. Manhattan ranked dead last in BBP% with a paltry 47.13%, nearly a full percentage point below Toronto and San Francisco. The team struggled mightily at exiting their zone with possession, and Aittokallio paid a hefty price on it. The team was last in team scoring in the SHL, gave up the most shots against per game and yet had a league-average penalty kill thanks to strong play behind them. The team has a long way to go to become competitive in this league, yet landed fifth from last and the second-closest to a playoff position of all non-playoff teams in spite of it and much thanks to the goaltending they had.

With Aittokallio's poor team-play and beyond incredible numbers in QS% and GSAA, I have him tied for first with Beaujeaux Biscuit.

To explain the tie, Aittokallio did play nine fewer games than any of the other goaltenders on this list. That could've caused a major swing in variance if he had a few poor games in those nine. While he'd be expected based on how the season had gone to surpass Beaujeaux in Quality Starts, it's something we can never tell. With his team struggling so mightily in front of him, it could have caused a catastrophic collapse. The only explanation I could imagine to defend this is that Aittokallio's back-up Cedric Moreau managed six quality starts which if added to Aittokallio's total would put him firmly in the lead with 30 if we're to believe Aittokallio would've done equally as good or better in those games.

Beaujeaux continued to amaze throughout the season and played the total of 44 games that a starting netminder may play in a season. With that, he's neck-in-neck with Aittokallio on my list. Now that you have the numbers and the arguments in front of you, who do you think deserves to be the S42 John McBride Trophy winner? Is it one of my bottom three? Or who do you choose between Beaujeaux and Aittokallio?</div>

Quote:[b]Word Count: 1756.

I left questions at the end mostly in that I'm curious what people think with these numbers in front of them, who deserves to win? I hope you all enjoyed reading this, maybe I'll publish more with this kind of information, look at the worst of the season or more of a dive into possession stats like I used to do. I'm not sure, but look forward to hearing what people think of this type of article.[/b]

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.