Create Account

Regular Season End Draft Analysis Part 2
#1

Welcome back to our SJMHL S44 Draft class breakdown! If you haven't read it yet, it's worth heading over to check out part one prior to reading this as I will be referencing data I made in that post, although it's not necessary. You can find that here.

So last time we left you with the standings of the individual players themselves in their draft ranks, but didn't actually compare the outcomes of the season against each other. We'll begin with that data in this segment to set the tone for the rest of the article.

I gave any player that was currently situated on the exact same TPE as another the same ranking in this breakdown, so there only ended up being 24 different combinations earned when all said and done. This way players could be assigned the same rank as another regardless of point totals for the season, the latter of which can sometimes be misleading in determining team contribution. 

We'll get to points afterwards, but for now lets look at the raw TPE data: 
1. Mika Mayfield 
273

2. Samuel Jalopski
262

3. Alexander Selich
259

4. Leopold Lockhart
258

4. Andreas Kvalheim
258

5. Maxime Bouchard
250

6. Konstantin Voloshin
248

6. Cassius Darrow
248

7. Dominic Montgomery
247

7. Hiro Fujikawa
247

8. Griffith Calwalader
243

8. Slip McScruff
243

9. Vegeta Muerto
241

10. Arsene Arsenich
239

10. William Goose
239

11. Sanyi Kocsis
238

12. Donnie Dicks
237

13. Andy Kerr
235

14. Nolan Sawchuk
234

15. Zivan Zedek
226

16. Jakub Novak
217

17. Kenji Yoshimura
215

18. Jimmy Cahill
200

19. Desmond Carey
188

20. Guy McCool
181

21. Cash Considerations
180

22. Marshal Ray
166

23. Ivars Ozols
161

24. Gareth Rush
0

24. Richard Williamson
0

24. Jeffrey Murphy
0

24. Elias Hughes
0


I have included the 4 deleted players for the purpose of determining draft percentages by team. This may be slightly controversial in the view that the teams may have had no idea they would go inactive, but in my opinion the team doesn't have to draft any particular player and they are accepting the risks associated when taking someone in the first place.

As the teams in the draft had a differing amount of picks, it was required that I assign some kind of score to players to avoid a team with a lot of picks (in this case Colorado) having an advantage purely because they have more players. I came up with the following:
10 Points for 270-279
9 Points for 260-269
8 Points for 250-259
7 Points for 240-249
6 Points for 230-239
5 Points for 220-229
4 Points for 210-219
3 Points for 200-209
2 Points for 190-199
1 Point for 189 or less
0 Points for Zero

With this system, a team with a small amount of picks can be ranked higher than a team with a lot, directly based off how much 'quality' the player has. I used Mika's TPE as the top end of the scale and worked backwards, so theoretically any other player could have earned the same score as Mika for their draft team if they had hit the 270 point threshold, but they didn't so she takes the first spot on the TPE podium all for herself.

For example the top 10 players earned the following for their teams:
Armada Mika Mayfield 273 = 10 Points
Scarecrows Samuel Jalopski 262 = 9 Points
Raptors Alexander Selich 259 = 8 Points
Armada Leopold Lockhart 258 = 8 Points
Militia Andreas Kvalheim 258 = 8 Points 
Armada Maxime Bouchard 250 = 8 Points
Raptors Konstantin Voloshin 248 = 7 Points
Raptors Cassius Darrow 248 = 7 Points
raiders Dominic Montgomery 247 = 7 Points
Militia Hiro Fujikawa 247 = 7 Points

The list of picks was as follows (excluding passes and forfeits):
Colorado 7 picks
Anchorage 6 picks
Montreal 5 picks
Vancouver 3 Picks
Halifax 3 Picks
Detroit 3 Picks
Kelowna 3 Picks
St. Louis 2 Picks

Team totals for Player scores once applied to the scale (totals on the right are assumed absolute maximums):
Anchorage 43 / 60
Colorado 32 / 70
Montreal 23 / 50
St Louis 16 / 20
Vancouver 13 / 30
Kelowna 12 / 30
Halifax 9 / 30
Detroit 9 / 30

Making for a final ranking of:
1. St Louis 80%
2. Anchorage 71.6%
3. Montreal 46%
4. Colorado 45.7%
5. Vancouver 43.3%
6. Kelowna 40%
7. Halifax 30%
8. Detroit 30%

So applying my scale here (which may or may not be ideal but I think it works well), St Louis won the draft in terms of quality applied to their overall team! Jalopski really came through for his team here, although even if he had only achieved ~250 TPE it would have been enough for the Scarecrows to secure the win. Having only selected two very active players in Jalopski and McScruff, and passing on all their other options (or having traded them away) let them win comfortably over the other teams here.
I should clarify that whilst Halifax and Detroit both ended on the same quality percentage, I placed Detroit lower due to the fact they drafted a player who later deleted his account, and therefore have less quality overall in comparison to Halifax's lowest in 161 TPE Ivars. Even if that is by the slimmest of margins.
An interesting takeaway from the results above is that Colorado (who have some of the strongest draft alumni in ranks 3, 6 and 6 respectively) also drafted some of the worst players in the class and severely hurt their rankings. Had they not drafted Rush and McCool, they would have been sitting at 62%. This still isn't enough to win them the rankings, but it certainly is easier on the eyes. Montreal is in a similar situation, but third still gets you a medal at championships, and I feel that's good enough for this situation too.

The next step is to correlate the data to who was selected where amongst the rounds. Nothing too surprising here, but a couple of intriguing things at least. Here is the raw data:
1. Mika Mayfield 
7th

2. Samuel Jalopski
9th

3. Alexander Selich
1st

4. Leopold Lockhart
2nd

4. Andreas Kvalheim
3rd

5. Maxime Bouchard
23rd

6. Konstantin Voloshin
4th

6. Cassius Darrow
8th

7. Dominic Montgomery
5th

7. Hiro Fujikawa
19th

8. Griffith Calwalader
27th

8. Slip McScruff
17th

9. Vegeta Muerto
20th

10. Arsene Arsenich
25th

10. William Goose
24th

11. Sanyi Kocsis
10th

12. Donnie Dicks
6th

13. Andy Kerr
16th

14. Nolan Sawchuk
22nd

15. Zivan Zedek
21st

16. Jakub Novak
14th

17. Kenji Yoshimura
15th

18. Jimmy Cahill
28th

19. Desmond Carey
11th

20. Guy McCool
30th

21. Cash Considerations
12th

22. Marshal Ray
29th

23. Ivars Ozols
26th

24. Gareth Rush
13th

24. Richard Williamson
36th

24. Jeffrey Murphy
37th

24. Elias Hughes
35th

The first immediate outlier amongst the data is (some devilishly handsome fellow if I do say so myself), fifth placed Maxime Bouchard. Being amongst the company of predominantly first rounders, he has definitely proven some doubters wrong about his work ethic or expected inactivity. The other noticeable player sticking out amongst the first rounders (and Scruff) in the first 10 is Hiro Fujikawa. 
It's certainly true that there are diamonds in the rough, but perhaps the opposite was almost the case in this draft. Examining the data closer, we can see that picks (in TPE descending order) 23, 19, 27, 17, 20, 25 and 24 all came in ahead of top rookie scorer for the season and 10th overall Sanyi Kocsis. Truly an astonishing stat given the general performance of late round picks and just goes to show the absolute quality that was present in this draft. 
You could also turn it on it's head and look it at from the viewpoint that the second rounder's really haven't pulled their weight all that much in comparison too, both are accurate statements in my opinion.

We'll now examine the points for each rookie and compare that with their TPE Rank to see just how much they are over or under performing:

1. Sanyi Kocsis 
38 Points : TPE Rank 11
Slightly over performing


2. Mika Mayfield
32 Points : TPE Rank 1
Performing as expected

3. Leopold Lockhart
31 Points : TPE Rank 4
Performing as expected

4. Nolan Sawchuk
30 Points : TPE Rank 14
Heavily over performing

5. Cassius Darrow
29 Points : TPE Rank 6
Performing as expected

6. Konstantin Voloshin
28 Points : TPE Rank 6
Performing as expected

7. Alexander Selich
26 Points : TPE Rank 3
Performing as expected

8. Vegeta Muerto
25 Points : TPE Rank 9
Slightly over performing

9. Maxime Bouchard
21 Points : TPE Rank 5
Slightly under performing

9. Arsene Arsenich
21 Points : TPE Rank 10
Performing as expected

10. Andreas Kvalheim
18 Points : TPE Rank 4
Slightly under performing

10. Donnie Dicks
18 Points : TPE Rank 12
Performing as expected

11. Jakub Novak
17 Points : TPE Rank 16
Performing as expected

11. William Goose
17 Points : TPE Rank 10
Slightly under performing

12. Cash Considerations
16 Points : TPE Rank 21
Heavily over performing

13. Dominic Montgomery
14 Points : TPE Rank 7
Slightly under performing


 13. Hiro Fujikawa
14 Points : TPE Rank 7
Slightly under performing

13. Zivan Zedek
14 Points : TPE Rank 15
Performing as expected

14. Samuel Jalopski
13 Points : TPE Rank 2
Heavily under performing

14. Andy Kerr
13 Points : TPE Rank 13
Performing as expected

15. Kenji Yoshimura
12 Points : TPE Rank 17
Performing as expected

15. Jimmy Cahill
12 Points : TPE Rank 18
Performing as expected

16. Slip McScruff
10 Points : TPE Rank 8
Heavily under performing

17. Griffith Calwalader
5 Points : TPE Rank 8
Really heavily under performing

18. Desmond Carey
4 Points : TPE Rank 19
Performing as expected

19. Ivars Ozols
3 Points : TPE Rank 23
Performing as expected

19. Guy McCool
3 Points : TPE Rank 20
Performing as expected

(I'm not wasting my time with these guys)
20. Marshal Ray
20. Elias Hughes
20. Richard Williamson
20. Jeffrey Murphy
20. Gareth Rush

Pretty sure the stats speak for themselves here. Keep in mind that ice time and line mates affects these results and they should be taken with a pinch of salt, but they are still a decent measure as to how a player is performing. It's hard for me to correlate these to team draft performance though, as there are just too many factors to take into account. I can however state that Colorado and Anchorage benefited greatly from their selections, with both teams point totals for the year being buffered largely through their rookies contributions. Kelowna as well come to think of it, but with only two rookies they are of a lesser extent.

I think that pretty much wraps this up, you can find the link to the screenshot of the excel spreadsheet I made here, and if anyone wants the raw file to mess around with just send me a message and I'll forward it to you (or Google doc it, whatever). Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoyed it! Let me know if I missed anything or you think I am wrong and I'll be happy to discuss it!

(2457 words)

[Image: first.png]
[img=0x0]https://i.imgur.com/rWt4AB3.png[/img][img=0x0]https://i.imgur.com/rWt4AB3.png[/img]
Maxime Bouchard
Armada Dragons Info - Updates  Dragons Armada
Richard Dickbutt McFudderdudder II
Armada Info - Updates Armada
Reply
#2

I miss my buddy Fleming

[Image: McZehrl.png]

Challenge Cup Wins:
S18 - Riot Seattle Riot (with Chris McZehrl)*
S23 - Wolfpack New England Wolfpack (with Chris McZehrl)*
S27 - Dragons Calgary Dragons (with VLAD McZehrl)
S34 - Rage Manhattan Rage (with VLAD McZehrl)
S37 - Jets Winnipeg Jets (with VLAD McZehrl)
S46 - Stampede Buffalo Stampede (with GOD McZehrl)*

*first ever Challenge Cup of Franchise History

Four Star Cup Wins:
S24 - Whalers Vancouver Whalers (with VLAD McZehrl)
S39 - Scarecrows St. Louis Scarecrows (with GOD McZehrl)

SHL Hall of Fame Members:
S24 - Chris McZehrl Platoon Panthers Dragons Riot Wolfpack *
(GP: 764 | G: 322 | A: 461 | P: 783 | +/-: +109)
S40 - VLAD McZehrl Dragons Riot Rage Stampede Jets Wolfpack *
(GP: 653 | G: 333 | A: 361 | P: 694 | +/-: +141)

*1st Ballot Hall of Famer

small note: GOD McZehrl played at first as Defender and later as Forward!
Reply
#3

quality article as usual buddy!!

also smh do i gotta tear the league up again to prove y'all wrong?

PLAYER | UPDATE
[Image: BBr47PN.png]


[Image: m9F8nRF.png]
Reply
#4

@Tomen 3rd place? I am disappointed

[Image: zQ54LhF.png]
Reply
#5

12-01-2018, 02:48 PMInsayne Wrote: @Tomen 3rd place? I am disappointed

Don't worry once I have done PGS I will be #1. Just was busy and didn't have Internet since tuesday evening.

[Image: KSelich.gif]
Thank you all for the amazing sigs & player cards
Germany Citadelles  Stampede [Image: vhY18i8.png][Image: Raptors.png][Image: gs89eGV.png] [Image: eE2UQZC.png] Stampede Citadelles Germany



3. Buffalo Stampede , Eduard Selich 5 (Maximilian Wachter, Alexis Metzler) at 16:25
5. Buffalo Stampede , Eduard Selich 6 (Steven Stamkos Jr., Brynjar Tusk) at 19:48
8. Buffalo Stampede , Eduard Selich 7 (Brynjar Tusk, Alexis Metzler) at 13:55
9. Buffalo Stampede , Eduard Selich 8 (Anton Fedorov, Mikelis Grundmanis) at 15:12
10. Buffalo Stampede , Eduard Selich 9 (Dickie Pecker) at 19:43 (Empty Net)
Reply
#6

12-01-2018, 01:21 AMWeretarantula Wrote:
amongst the first rounders (and Scruff)

Scarecrows Scarecrows Scarecrows
Ilike
Scarecrows Scarecrows Scarecrows

[Image: scrufdaddy2.gif]
credit to Flappy, ToeDragon, and Carpy

Patriotes Stars Panthers Platoon Specters Platoon Panthers Specters Aurora Jets Usa Scarecrows

[Image: Tqabyfh.png][Image: UDyqktK.png][Image: 1DL5JDX.png]
Reply
#7

12-01-2018, 04:28 AMChris-McZehrl Wrote: I miss my buddy Fleming

being undrafted sucks

[Image: 46381_s.gif]
sigs by ToeDragon84
[Image: Jpcs9tG.png]
Reply
#8

Great read just like the first article Smile. I do think though that your method of ranking teams is a little off in some ways because it essentially punishes teams for every pick they have in the later rounds. Nobody really expects these super late picks to work out, but in your ranking every 4th rounder that doesn't make it negatively impacts a teams rating and I don't think that's a good idea.
Reply
#9

Completely snubbed smh. Top earning center and top producing center in points and doesn't even get on the list :( free agency will do that to yah

[Image: Klaus2.jpg]
Reply
#10

Heavily over performing? Nah I'm just too good

[Image: Jepox.gif]
Reply
#11

12-01-2018, 09:46 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: Great read just like the first article Smile. I do think though that your method of ranking teams is a little off in some ways because it essentially punishes teams for every pick they have in the later rounds. Nobody really expects these super late picks to work out, but in your ranking every 4th rounder that doesn't make it negatively impacts a teams rating and I don't think that's a good idea.

That’s a fair point but I believe there is two sides to the coin. Say if a single 4th round pick turned out to be in the top 5 earners miraculously, would you expect the others to still be exempt from judgement? There’s no guarantee that any player will stick around and actually turn out decent, so the entire exercise needs to have repercussions for gambling on those players, instead of taking them in free agency in my opinion. Is it harsh? Perhaps, but life ain’t fair. 
Glad you enjoyed them regardless :D

[Image: first.png]
[img=0x0]https://i.imgur.com/rWt4AB3.png[/img][img=0x0]https://i.imgur.com/rWt4AB3.png[/img]
Maxime Bouchard
Armada Dragons Info - Updates  Dragons Armada
Richard Dickbutt McFudderdudder II
Armada Info - Updates Armada
Reply
#12

12-02-2018, 01:06 PMNoble Wrote: Completely snubbed smh. Top earning center and top producing center in points and doesn't even get on the list :( free agency will do that to yah

Sorry bud, just going off the draft list Wink

[Image: first.png]
[img=0x0]https://i.imgur.com/rWt4AB3.png[/img][img=0x0]https://i.imgur.com/rWt4AB3.png[/img]
Maxime Bouchard
Armada Dragons Info - Updates  Dragons Armada
Richard Dickbutt McFudderdudder II
Armada Info - Updates Armada
Reply
#13

12-02-2018, 10:19 PMWeretarantula Wrote:
12-01-2018, 09:46 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: Great read just like the first article Smile. I do think though that your method of ranking teams is a little off in some ways because it essentially punishes teams for every pick they have in the later rounds. Nobody really expects these super late picks to work out, but in your ranking every 4th rounder that doesn't make it negatively impacts a teams rating and I don't think that's a good idea.

That’s a fair point but I believe there is two sides to the coin. Say if a single 4th round pick turned out to be in the top 5 earners miraculously, would you expect the others to still be exempt from judgement? There’s no guarantee that any player will stick around and actually turn out decent, so the entire exercise needs to have repercussions for gambling on those players, instead of taking them in free agency in my opinion. Is it harsh? Perhaps, but life ain’t fair. 
Glad you enjoyed them regardless :D

The problem in my eyes is that teams get punished simply for heaving picks in the late rounds. This can theoretically lead to pretty bizarre results, for example a team who picks great in the 1st and 2nd rounds and then has some extra picks in the 4th and 5th rounds, by which points all the actives are gone anyway, would end up ranked worse than a team who only makes average picks in the 1st and 2nd and then doesn't have any picks later on. If someone hits on a sleeper pick very late then they should be rewarded for it of course, but I don't think teams should be hurt in the rankings if a pick who had a 95% chance to bust to begin with doesn't pan out.
Reply
#14

@RomanesEuntDomus True, but in any case it’s still a case of two perspectives and that neither are necessarily correct. In this particular case, removing the players from the percentage results gives Montreal, Halifax and Detroit marginally better outcomes, and doesn’t impact the top 3 anyway. Maybe in the future seasons it will make an impact, and I look forward to seeing if it does!

[Image: first.png]
[img=0x0]https://i.imgur.com/rWt4AB3.png[/img][img=0x0]https://i.imgur.com/rWt4AB3.png[/img]
Maxime Bouchard
Armada Dragons Info - Updates  Dragons Armada
Richard Dickbutt McFudderdudder II
Armada Info - Updates Armada
Reply




Users browsing this thread:
1 Guest(s)




Navigation

 

Extra Menu

 

About us

The Simulation Hockey League is a free online forums based sim league where you create your own fantasy hockey player. Join today and create your player, become a GM, get drafted, sign contracts, make trades and compete against hundreds of players from around the world.