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Atlantic Denver's SMJHL S44 Preview: A Review
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(This post was last modified: 12-07-2018, 01:05 PM by hhh81.)

SMJHL Season 44 in Review
By: Harry Hemmert
The regular season is in the books, and the playoffs have begun in earnest, so let’s look back at our pre-season predictions to see how we did!

Armada Anchorage Armada

Predictions:
               Doug Dimmadome will be traded to finish his SMJHL career
               Team MVP: C Xena
               7th place, miss playoffs
Results:
Doug Dimmadome absolutely positively did not get traded! He had some of the lowest production of his career, scoring only 16 goals and 34 points, but the Armada took a step forward, clinching the final playoff spot and a first round matchup with the defending champs. Xena had an admittedly good season, setting new career highs in almost every statistical category. She finished second on the team in scoring, one point behind Eero Niemi, but leading the team with five game winning goals. Her five also tied for second in the entire league.

Offensively, the Armada were great, finishing second in the league in Shots For/Against Percentage (110.05%) and shots for (30.22), as well as third in goals per game (3.22). They did not get great goaltending, and the young nucleus for Anchorage had some defensive lapses, but the team’s playoff push shows they are moving in the right direction.

:Raptors: Colorado Raptors

Predictions:
               COL will be able to score a lot of goals, but a mixed back on defense would hold them back
               Team MVP: G Scotty Crawfling
               3rd place, 2nd round loss

Results:
5th place finish, 7th best GF, 4th (T) GA

When the season began, who could have predicted @39alaska39 would conduct a firesale at the deadline, sending the Raptors’ top five forwards and top pairing defensemen to playoff contenders? From the trade deadline on, the Raptors went 7-5 and went from last place to clinching their fourth straight first round playoff matchup with Montreal. The team struggled to score throughout the season, as the Cold Pizza line of Winters, Winter, and Pepperoni were slowed down and the rookie class did not adapt to the offensive side of the game as quickly as planned. During their startling run to the playoffs, the team played a defensively sound game with opportunistic scoring, led by a trio of rookies.

While his individual stats (22-17-1, 2.84 GAA, 0.899 SV%) don’t look particularly impressive, Scottey Crawfling was the glue that drove the Raptors engine. Additionally, his 0.899 SV% trailed only Cedric Robinson this season, he had three shutouts (second in the league to Petr Vrana’s four), while also facing the second most shots of any goaltender (1097) and playing only the fifth most minutes (2293). While he won’t win any hardware for his regular season performance, he has been rock solid in the playoffs, going 2-0 with a 1.5 goals against and a 0.957 save percentage.

Falcons Detroit Falcons

Predictions:
               The team will be great all around and is the front runner for the championship
               Team MVP: RW Ola Wagstrom
               1st place, Four Star Cup finalist

Results:
Detroit performed as expected, finishing second in goals for (3.74), first in goals against (2.78), second in hits (17.8 per game), first in goals for/against percentage (134.53%), second in faceoff percentage (51.71%), and first in penalty kill (82.18%). Surprisingly, they were only middle of the pack in shots blocked (402) and were dead last in power play percentage (16.96%) and second to last in shots against (1408, 28.16 per game). Those stats didn’t seem to hurt them, as they clinched home ice throughout the playoffs and await their second-round opponent.

Ola Wagstrom, after a stellar preseason, was solid, finishing with 19 goals and 38 points, earning every inch of his 2nd overall selection in the SHL Entry Draft. However, his stellar sophomore campaign saw him finish third on the team in scoring (not counting former Raptor Tony Pepperoni’s 32 points before the trade). Hippo Passamus led the Falcons in scoring for the second consecutive year, while the real story for Detroit was their goalie. Cedric Robinson was dominant, going 29-9-6 with a 0.904 save percentage and a 2.65 goals against average. He will undoubtably win the Tom Corcoran Trophy as the leagues top netminder, but he’s getting early attention as a front runner for the Ideen Fallah and Raymond Lindsay Trophies, given to the league MVP. He is a force that allows the Falcons to win on any night, no matter the opponent.

raiders Halifax raiders

Predictions:
               Goaltending will hold them back, but the top line will be a terror to defend
               Team MVP: D Craig Finley
               6th place finish, first round loss

Results:
The goaltending wasn’t as terrible as expected. Nathan Cosco’s numbers weren’t as good as last season, but he was a solid backup. Rookie Justin Willis carried much of the load, playing 36 games and finishing with a 17-16-2 record, a 0.890 (6th) save percentage and a 2.74 goals against average (2nd).

Unfortunately, Halifax missed the playoffs yet again, leading to the resignation of former GM @TheDangaZone. They were 12-11-1 at the midpoint, but lost 4 of their last six and couldn’t break out of their .500 pace. They were decently strong defensively (their 3.00 GA was 3rd in the league) and impressive on special teams (3rd in PP%, 5th in PK%, good for 4th in PP+PK). Their issues came with scoring, where they ranked 7th in shots for (25.54) and dead last in goals for (2.70 per game). Kristof Kovacs and Vince Reaper produced roughly the same as last season (45/48 and 36/39, respectively), but Oliver Kovacs’ 13 goals and 34 points fell well short of his outstanding 19 goal, 46 point season a year ago. Much of his production drop off came from power play points, where O. Kovacs went from 13 points to only 9. Instead, sophomore Rainbow Dash put up 15 of their 22 points with the man advantage.

The pick of Finley as MVP was a risky move; one of the Kovacs would have been a safer choice. Finley and Max Egger were both strong all-around contributors in S43, and looked to do the same this year. Finley is and was the better goal scorer, and he continued that this year with 11 goals, including 2 game winners and 7 power play tallies. In the end, the stat lines for Egger and Finley are largely identical with 0.01 difference in TOI, 5 SB, 1 +/-, 2 hits, and the same number of points (26). In the end, their play wasn’t able to elevate the Raiders to the playoffs.

Knights Kelowna Knights

Predictions:
               Goaltending will be terrible, and the team will be bad, no matter how many points the Konstantin-Denisovich pair scores
               Team MVP: Tie, Vlad Konstantin/Boris Denisovich
               8th place finish, miss playoffs

Results:
After a furious 7-1 start to the season that saw Kelowna lead the league for a good while, the team flamed out in the back half of the season, going 4-16-2 in their last 22 games, including a seven-game losing streak to finish the season. While Scott Foster was a world beater early, once new management was installed Scott Wyndham, Vasil Comescu, and rookie Vivian Leblanc were signed to fill in the net. That trio was unfortunately abysmal, recording a combined 5-17-2 record. This led the Knights to finish exactly where we expected, dead last. A deeper look at the stats shows the Knights were slightly above league average on the powerplay (21.94% v. 20.88%, good for 4th place), but dead last on the penalty kill (74.2 percent). This team was simply terrible defensively, averaging 4.18 goals against per game (8th) and being last in goals for/against percentage (75.60%) by almost 15 percent.

Vlad Konstantin was very good, despite the bad defensive effort of Kelowna. His 27 goals and 56 points led the entire league, and he was the only Knight to finish with a neutral or plus rating on the season (the next best regular contributor was center Shouta Aizawa with a -9). His frequent linemate, Denisovich was traded to Montreal at the deadline. The brightest story of the season for Kelowna was easily the impressive seasons of their trio of star rookies: Sanyi Kocsis, Nickolas Klaus, and Nolan Sawchuk. The trio finished first (38), second (36), and fifth (30), respectively, in rookie scoring. Kocsis in particular was impressive. Forced to play a significant amount of minutes (his 1145 minutes were fourth highest in the entire league), he contributed in all situations, scoring 38 points (#1 among rookies and 4th among all defenders), 7 of his 10 goals with the man advantage, as well as making 67 blocks. Kocsis will likely win rookie of the year by a fair margin, and he deserves it.

This season was exciting, but disappointing. The future is bright in Kelowna.

Militia Montreal Militia

Predictions:
               The forwards are young, the defense is veteran and deep, but they may struggle to score.
               Team MVP: D Charlie Schieck
               2nd place finish, likely 2nd round exit

Results:
Montreal struggled to score goals--their 3.04 average per game was good for 6th in the league—but also weren’t as tight defensively as expected. They had exactly 100% goals for/against, good for 4th in the league, which is exactly where they finished. Their penalty kill was strong and they were able to limit shots against (26.54 per game, 2nd), but they just could not score consistently. They attempted to address this with their deadline additions of high scoring forward Boris Denisovich from Kelowna and booming shooter Sachimo Zoidberg, Jr. from Colorado.

The veteran Schieck was strong for the Militia, if occasionally unsexy. His 5 goals and 34 points led all Montreal defensemen, and he finished second on the team with a +10 rating. He led a very strong group of defenders for Montreal that hope to bounce back after a rough start to the playoffs versus Colorado.

Scarecrows St. Louis Scarecrows

Predictions:
               Everyone will struggle to score against this team. They will have the lowest GAA on the season
               Team MVP: Nicholas Williams
               4th place, Four Star Cup finalist

Results:
We were right in saying our prediction model didn’t like the Scarecrows, but that they’d be better than anticipated. They finished with the second-best record in the league, while also being second in goals against (2.88), power play percentage (23.66%), shots against (26.36), and tops in the league for PP+PK percentage (102.82%). Time will tell if they will be second-best again this year, after losing in the Four Star Cup Finals last year. Until someone shows they are ready to compete with this veteran bunch, I feel confident St. Louis will make yet another Four Star Cup final.

St. Lous was active during the trade deadline, adding Alex Winters and Philipp Winter from the Colorado Raptors. Winter tied Nicholas Williams for the team scoring lead with 47 points, though Williams was the dominant force throughout the season for the Crows. He plays typical St. Louis hockey bringing a gritty edge and strong defensive play on every shift. He produced in all situations with 17 powerplay points and two short handed points on the season, while only taking 5 penalties all season.

Whalers Vancouver Whalers

Predictions:
               The loss of the top three defenders from last year’s team would lead the Whalers to take a significant step back.
               Team MVP: LW Luke Thomason
               5th place, first round exit

Results:
Okay, look, I was wrong. In my defense, who on Earth though Barret McCarthy could do that? He followed up a decent rookie season with an absurd 50 point year, where he set the franchise record with 42 assists. It’s hard to name a single MVP, as so many players were incredible for the Whalers.

Eight Whalers (including trade deadline acquisition Kevin Maddox) scored 40 or more points, a ridiculous statistic that backs up their top ranking for goals for per game (3.86), power play percentage (24.04%), and shots for (30.88 per game). The losses of their star defenders from last year saw them drop to the league’s bottom half in goals against (3.32, 6th) and penalty kill (78.53%, 6th). Still, they had four of the leagues top 10 scorers at left wing and all three of the leagues’ top scoring defensemen. Offensively, it was like nothing changed from last year’s season, and in fact they were even stronger offensively, averaging a third of a goal more a game.

Quote:Word Count: 2052, ready for grading!

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#2

Sick write up, you killed it man Cheers

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artermis,Feb 2 2017, 04:11 PM Wrote:9gag pretty lit tho
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#3

hella lit

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#4

This was amazing.

You’re an awesome addition to this league, and you’re proving right for having you so high on our draft boards in the beginning of the season.

Keep plugging along, you’re going to be a great SHLer.

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#5

12-07-2018, 10:32 AMJKortesi81 Wrote: This was amazing.

You’re an awesome addition to this league, and you’re proving right for having you so high on our draft boards in the beginning of the season.

Keep plugging along, you’re going to be a great SHLer.

Thank you! That means a lot.

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#6

Nice Article. You forgot to mention the HIT master in Detroit :eyes.

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#7

12-07-2018, 02:24 PMSnussu Wrote: Nice Article. You forgot to mention the HIT master in Detroit :eyes.

I didn't go that deep into things for that, but Boija definitely made some things happen physically!

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