The race to the playoffs (in the SHL) and to reach that top 6 first round bye (in the SMJHL) is heating up, so here's a rundown of what each team definitely needs) Where a "Clinching scenario" is considered one where the team reaches the playoffs based purely on their efforts, assuming worst case scenario for the team in terms of other results), and what they probably need, to secure their berths, starting in the eastern conference of the SHL with...

1. The West Kendall Platoon 

As the index so eruditely shows, WKP have clinched a playoff spot already. They're sitting pretty with 59 points, and 28 ROWs with 10 to play. The 6th placed team is on 39, but with only 15 ROWs even if NEW won every game and WKP lost them all, WKP would win any tiebreak, getting into the wildcard. 

With that in mind, there are still a few things they'd like this season:

To clinch a first round bye (top 3 in the east):6 points including at least 1 ROW, or 7 otherwise will secure them the top 3, and you would hardly want to bet against it with this team (I was traded for this so they'd better win a fucking cup). A win against NEW would mean they only needed 2 points (3 if SO or OT), and a ROW (unless it came in the NEW game)

To clinch number 1 in the east: WKP currently sit 11 points clear in the east, but they have a game in hand over Toronto and Buffalo, so from their last 10, they need 7 points including 2 ROWs or 8 otherwise. Not an overwhelming task it must be said (and this is all assuming the next best team wins all 10 in regulation). A win in their game against Toronto would shave those 7 down to 3 (4 if OT or SO) from other games, with ROWs required staying the same (but one of them could come in that game)

President's trophy: This is really a 3 horse race, with WKP leading by a bit right now. To absolutely clinch, they would need: 19 points including 9 ROWs or all 20 otherwise. They don't play Edmonton or NOLA in this stretch, so won't get any extras for beating them, and will have to rely on other teams doing their dirty work, or cleaning up all the points available.

Realistically: West Kendall could lose every game and still probably end in the top 3, with a decent chance of winning their conference. 

MAGIC NUMBER (Number of points + number of points lost by team in 6th to clinch a spot, asterisk indicates will likely be 1 less due to tiebreak): CLINCHED

2: The Toronto North Stars 

Toronto are currently sitting fairly comfortably where they are, 2nd in the east (although Buffalo aren't far behind), and cruising towards clinching over the next few days. They'll struggle to catch up to West Kendall though.

Sitting at 48 points and 20 ROWS, they're 9 points ahead of New England. They've had 41 games though, so it's not quite as comfy as it seems. They need 12 points from 9 games to secure it (would be 11, but 5 ROWs isn't enough to get them clear). It should be noted that they play New England twice, and victories in those games would get them far closer. Winning those games in regulation counts double, or in overtime they're worth 1.5 times another game. 

TOP 3: They're a long way from comfort in this respect yet. Needing 16 points to get the clinch here, it's a long way away. No games against Chicago means they need other teams to take games off them, but the Manhattan games could be vital.


Realistically: Beating NEW will get them over the line probably, but if they just keep ticking along as they are they'll make it, but may need to stave off late pushes to stay top 3. The 2 games against Manhattan could decide who gets a few days off.


MAGIC NUMBER: 12

3: The Buffalo Stampede 

Buffalo are in a similar position to Toronto. Looks like they're cruising towards a spot, but it isn't close to secure yet. In their case, it's 15 points required, or 14 with 6 ROWs. 2 more games against NEW could help out.

TOP 3: To clinch top 3, they need a big effort. 18 points including 9 ROWs will make it. But wins over chicago that would likely be required for that may realistically reduce that number.

Realistically: Wins over Chicago and New England are key, to clinch top 3 and a spot respectively. They also have a late game against Manhattan, which may need to be won to keep themselves out of the wildcards.

MAGIC NUMBER: 15*

4: The Chicago Syndicate 

Chicago are in a spot for now, but dangerously close to not being in one. It's been a good season for them regardless, but to clinch it, they currently need 17 points, although they would get in with 16 and 8 ROWs failing NEW winning every game as a ROW. The problem: Chicago have one of the toughest schedules in the league for the last stretch. 3 games against WKP, the best in the league right now, and although they have 2 games against bottom feeders, every other game is against a playoff team (including one against NOLA, another one of the three in the running for President's). The game in hand comes in handy.

Realistically: Chicago need to find wins where they can. TBB and HAM are must win games, and then their best hopes lie with beating Manhattan, and some of the West's borderline playoff teams, and hoping some people find wins against NEW or Manhattan. 

MAGIC NUMBER: 17*

5: The Manhattan Rage

Manhattan are also on the edge, and also have a tricky schedule. Their advantage is 4 games against Hamilton, a true blessing. Right now, they need 18 points to clinch, and the tiebreaker is close. NEW are on their tail, and again, they don't have games against them to prove their worth. They can only hope NEW's tricky schedule brings them down a notch, but the pack is hunting.

Realistically: 4 games against Hamilton is a gift, and they need to look this gift horse straight in the mouth and win as many as they can (preferably, as far as they're concerned, all 4). Other than that, again, if they can steal wins against top teams and get a good few against teams of their calibre, they should be alright.

MAGIC NUMBER: 18

6: The New England Wolfpack 

New England are biting at the heels of Manhattan and Chicago, but again have a tough schedule. What they need to reach the playoffs? Winnipeg and Tampa are must win games, and they need to claim some off teams ahead of them in the conference. Definitely doable, but they need to win important games.

DEATH NUMBER(Number of points dropped + points gained by 5th place team that will eliminate them.): 18

7: The Tampa Bay Barracudas 

Tampa have had a tricky season, but claim to have a bright future (I think I've made my opinion on that loud and clear). Anyway, this season they seem like an outsider shot to get in, but the shot is still there. 3 games against Hamilton, one against Winnipeg, and key games against Chicago and NEW. They also need to pick up games off teams like LAP to reach up to that spot that seems out of their reach. And they need to secure some points in trickier games, like Toronto and Buffalo. Definitely a lighter schedule, but can they capitalise?

DEATH NUMBER: 14

8: Hamilton Steelhawks 

If this is what all in looks like, I don't want to see Hamilton half-arsing it. They're bottom in the league right now, and would need something special to reach the playoffs. They do have 12 games remaining though, so it isn't unfathomable. They would realistically need to win just about everything though, and with games against WKP and Edmonton, that seems like a long shot.

DEATH NUMBER: 9




WESTERN CONFERENCE:


1: The Edmonton Blizzard 

EDMONTON HAVE CLINCHED A PLAYOFF SPOT. Despite what the index may say. For them to drop out, SFP and Minnesota need to pass them. However, SFP would need to win every game to do this, including, crucially, 2 against Minnesota. This drops Minnesota's maximum points from 60 to 58, but they would also only be able to reach 24 ROWs, losing on a tiebreak to Edmonton, and thus, Edmonton have clinched a berth.

TOP 3: Sitting 13 clear of 4th place, this also seems like it may well be coming soon. They only need 8 points to lock this in, but would be very probably to get it with fewer.

CONFERENCE TITLE: This is a close race, unlike the West. With NOLA just one behind, and tied on ROWs, they would need to earn 18 points including a win in their 2 games against NOLA


Realistically: 2 games against NOLA are key deciding games in the Conference title fight, but they could maybe sit back and not win anything and still get the top 3. A fairly lax schedule otherwise should see them cruise to the top 3 with games to spare.

MAGIC NUMBER: CLINCHED

2: The New Orleans Spectres 

As explained earlier, either SFP or Minnesota must get no higher than 58 points due to their schedule. As NOLA will win a tiebreak, they need just 1 point to get there, and are as such the likely next team to clinch a playoff spot.

TOP 3: They are 12 clear of 4th place, so need 9 to lock it in, but similarly to Edmonton will likely get it with fewer.

Realistically: They need to win against Edmonton to get a shot at the Conference title, and likely whichever team comes off the better from those two games will be the main challenger to WKP for the President's trophy. Minnesota is a frequent fixture they need to secure to stay in that fight.

MAGIC NUMBER: 1

3: The Calgary Dragons 

9 points into the playoff spots, so they need 12 to secure it. But it should be a comfortable ride. 4 Games against the big 3 could throw a spanner in the works in Calgary, but they should be able to find the points elsewhere.

TOP 3: They are just barely in the top 3 right now, but still in need of 19 points for it to be a sure thing. Unlikely to be certain until towards the last couple of games. 

Realistically: Calgary will very likely get into the playoffs, but top 3 could go any way. They need to put up strong fights and find points in difficult games to get there. 

MAGIC NUMBER: 12

4: The Texas Renegades

A similar position to Calgary, but needing 2 more so 14 rather than 12. What looks like a similarly difficult schedule for these last 10, and they'll be relieved to see them gone if they can end up in a playoff spot, or better yet in the top 3.

Realistically: This could be an interesting fight for 3rd with Calgary, if the 2 can distance themselves from the fight for a spot in the postseason. The last game on Texas' schedule, against Calgary, could be the decider of who gets a week off. That game also ends Calgary's season

MAGIC NUMBER: 14

5: The San Francisco Pride 

A west coast hub and apparently meant to be my rival now or something (don't worry TBB, NEW, I still hate you), San Francisco are riding the edge of the playoffs right now, and they don't want it to end. Just one point clear of Minnesota, but with Minnesota having a game in hand, they can still clinch the playoffs, because in earning all 20 points they would deny Minnesota 2, meaning they could only reach 58 vs SFPs 59.
MAGIC NUMBER: 20 

6: The Minnesota Chiefs 

One could argue that Minnesota are in a playoff spot right now, although the standings say otherwise. This will be a close race with SFP, with those 2 games against each other potentially deciding it. They can also clinch a playoff spot on the back of their own efforts, by winning 20 points if all of those 20 points come in ROWs, or 21 otherwise.
MAGIC NUMBER: 20

This above is a very interesting scenario where both teams can clinch at the loss of the other, which shows just how close the west is.

7: The Los Angeles Panthers 

OK so I'm just reading this off the index, and notice that technically Winnipeg are in 7th, on goal difference, but I'm not changing it now. The Panthers need to steal some points from the big teams to make the playoffs, and need to crush the life out of Winnipeg's hopes and dreams. Winnipeg need to do exactly the same to the Panthers. They have 3 games against each other, and for either to make the playoffs they'd want to win the lot of them. It'll be tricky, but it is very much possible, despite a somewhat tricky schedule to work around, with games against NOLA and Edmonton.

DEATH NUMBER: 16

8: The Winnipeg Jets 

Winnipeg are in much the same situation as Los Angeles here, looking to try and sneak through while Minnesota and SFP fight it out. They will be in with a good shout if they can take the games from LAP, and have a much lighter rest of their schedule than LAP, with just 1 "big 3" game, against NOLA. They may be a dark horse in this race.

DEATH NUMBER: 16



Now onto: THE SMJHL. A reminder of the system: All teams make the Playoffs, but the top 6 get a bye, while the bottom 4 play for wildcards. In here, clinching means getting one of those top 6 spots.

1: The Montreal Militia 

After a struggle last season, Montreal are back, and they are here to upset St Louis looking for the 4 peat. They're on a 9 winning streak, and top of the league so far. The SMJHL doesn't have ROWs listed, and I don't have time to count them, so I'm just going to ignore them and see how we go.

Montreal currently have 58 points, with the 7th placed team on 39. That means they need just 2 points to secure themselves a top 6 berth. They still need all 20 to secure themselves the Laurifer

Realistically: They're in a race with St Louis for the Laurifer, and that is likely to continue for a while with them just 1 point apart. Montreal could sit back now and still cruise to the top 6 though, without another win.

MAGIC NUMBER: 2

2: The St Louis Scarecrows 

St Louis are still as strong as they have been consistently over the last few seasons, including a great win-streak mid season. They have only struggled against 2 teams. The Milita, who are ahead of them, and Anchorage who have dumpstered them this season. They will fear either of those match ups early in the playoffs, and look to get top 2 to avoid them. 

Realistically: Similarly to Montreal, the top 6 is basically secured, they need to keep claiming the games if they want the Laurifer though.

MAGIC NUMBER: 3

3: The Vancouver Whalers 

Vancouver are having a good season after their rebuilder last year, and may be a playoff contender. They're a bit further from securing the top 6 though, only 12 points clear of Detroit in 7th, so they need 9 from their last games to get there.

Vancouver have a fairly weak schedule, so should get there with ease. The only question is can they make a late push for the top.

MAGIC NUMBER: 12

4: The Lethbridge Lions 

The second team in the tier that seems just slightly behind the top, they are in a similar situation to Vancouver (although Vancouver made the late season trade that may make them a stronger bet for the playoffs). Again, needing 12 points to secure the top 6, they are looking comfortable. Their late season games against Vancouver could well decide seeding.

MAGIC NUMBER: 12

5: The Anchorage Armada

Toot toot. Here come the Armada. They are the top of a fairly even tier that goes all the way down to 9th place, sitting just 4 ahead of 7th and thus needing 17 to be assured safety. They have a strong rookie pool though, so could be a threat with the added tpe gained over the season. 

MAGIC NUMBER: 17

6: The Anaheim Outlaws 

Anaheim are another team in this tier, and just grasping the final berth past the wildcard play-in. They are currently just 3 points clear so need 18 to be sure of staying up, a big ask to be sure. Taking games off the teams close to them is key for this group, and if they can find them, The higher teams as well.

MAGIC NUMBER: 18

7: The Detroit Falcons 

Detroit are another team who have come a long way since last year, but currently sit just outside the top 6. They have a difficult last 10 so it may be an uphill battle, but they are definitely in it for the long haul.

DEATH NUMBER: 18

8: The Halifax Raiders

Halifax don't seem to have improved much since last year, and have looked to place assets on the block to allow other teams to go for the playoffs.They are only 4 points away from that top 6 though, which would no doubt please their management and players.

DEATH NUMER: 17

9: The Kelowna Knights 

*Deep sigh*... Kelowna... what happened. Last year's Laurifer winners who took the cup to game 7 have dropped off a cliff into the bottomless abyss below. A real shame given the quality of team they had last year. Anyway, they're tied with Halifax on 38 points and still have a shot at the top 6, but it's still a long drop for the team that tore up the league last season. 


DEATH NUMBER: 17

10: The Colorado Raptors 

Oh Colorado, why does the SMJHL Hate you so. They have really struggled to make an impact on any level this season, and with 24 points sit 18 outside the top 6, and so very unlikely to get there. I haven't worked out permutations, but it may well be mathematically impossible for them to get there

DEATH NUMBER: 3 (or less)


I hope you enjoyed this blatant attempt to farm out an easy topic to over 3000 words. This is definitely not an epilogue to get me to 3.2 k. Definitely.


3219 words.