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charlieconway · 08-14-2019, 07:09 PM

(This is late because I forgot I was doing it and had no idea that the regular season started so soon after the preseason.)
(Also this is replacing the part 2 of the big-ass article I did about the Raiders performance in the first half of preseason because that became too much effort for a series of games no one cares about anymore. So take some rookie stuff.)
(One more thing... for SHL comparables I looked at strengths, archetypes, weaknesses, in that order.)

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Robert Hess: Welcome everyone to today's CSNS-740 Raiders Lunch, where we have a special treat for you: an amateur scout's rundown on the ten best rookie performances of the preseason. As always, I'm joined by PuckShack News' Langdon Alger. You excited, Langer?

Langdon Alger: Hey everyone. I'm interested to see how similar our top-tens will be... prospect assessments are like snowflakes: no two are identical.

RH: As promised, we’re joined on the line by a scout for the International Sim Scouting Service, Stuart Fletchman. Welcome to the show, Stuart.

Stuart Fletchman: It’s great to be here.

RH: I understand that you’ve prepared a list of ten rookies that deserve particular praise for their performances in the preseason. Let’s do it from ten to one, for the sake of suspense. Who’s number ten?

SF: Before we start, I’d like to mention a few players that deserve honorable mentions.

RH: Sure.

SF: When developing this list, I looked for players that seemed ready to take on all responsibilities available to them in the regular season. For most, that means putting work in on the penalty kill, which strikes out a few names like Montreal's Alexei Rykov, who had a terrific preseason offensively; Anaheim's Ivan Maximus, who performed very well in the face-off circle; and Colorado's Henrik Lekberg Osterman, a crafty winger that wound up with 9 goals, some of them showstoppers. Montreal's Bobby Lane put up good numbers despite getting barely any special teams minutes, the opposite of St. Louis' Yamomoto Mitsuharu, whose ice-time mostly came when either side was down a man.

RH: Alright, without further ado, let's get to number ten.

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LA: This one will win you a few fans here in the Halifax area.

RH: At ten, it’s Raiders defenseman Adam Barron.

SF: When you look at his offensive production, Adam seems to disappoint to start. But there are a couple of things to note. First, he didn’t get any minutes on the power-play, which is naturally going to affect a player’s production. Second, his presence in the defensive zone was very solid for a kid his age.

RH: It looks like he's adept at blocking shots, with 69--

LA: Nice.

RH: --altogether. Do you think that's down to bravery or being in the right place at the right time?

SF: Bravery I guess does come into play, timing too. But mainly I think it's just a knack for getting in shooting lanes and knowing when to expect the shot.

RH: Who do you see as an SHL comparable?

SF: This is interesting because I think Adam's spoken before about who he models his game after: hall-of-famer Alonzo Garbanzo and Barracuda defenseman Kristaps Ball. But I see a lot of Tigole Bitties in him. The Wolfpack veteran plays a great two-way game, with a focus on efficient puck movement. It's the same with Adam, who will play quite similarly once he rounds his game out... especially his checking and physicality.

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RH: At nine, we have Ryan Shepard (@Naosu) of the Kelowna Knights.

LA: First overall Ryan Shepard.

SF: Sometimes I wonder if that degree of pressure can hinder a player. When you’re young, it seems like an enormous task to just meet the expectations the world has set for you. Being picked first ahead of some of these other kids… there’s no telling how a prospect will react.

RH: Do you think Ryan handled it poorly?

SF: Maybe at first. But I like what I saw from him as time went on, especially as he started becoming more at-ease with the puck. He gave us three first-star performances in the preseason, and they all came within his last 20 games. That is more like the Ryan Shepard that had scouts drooling at the junior combine.

LA: Is there anything in particular that you think he needs to work on?

SF: Despite some excellent work at center for the Knights, I do think he could improve his positioning in the offensive zone. Getting open and dodging coverage is key in scoring goals at higher levels... you just don't have the time and space like you do in junior. If he can start separating himself from his marker with a little bit more efficiency, I think scoring chances will open up. He has the talent to do it, now Ryan needs to put the work in and train his ass off.

RH: Assuming he does hit his full potential, who looks like a comparable at the SHL level?

SF: Max Mauldin (@Wasty) of the Los Angeles Panthers. Shepard doesn't have Max's towering physique, but then again that's never really been a strength for either of them. They're both clever with the puck and comfortable developing plays at their own pace. Once he can nail down faceoff timing and two-way play, whoever drafts this kid will be singing his praises as highly as the Panthers sing Mauldin's.

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RH: Speaking of two-way games, you have Montreal’s Tom Fiddler (@PremierBromanov) at number eight.

SF: A guy like Tom really underlines how you can’t just look at point totals when assessing talent. If I had to describe his game in one word, it'd be reliability. You can count on him to make the smart play with the puck on his stick in the defensive zone, which is crucial for someone that's bound to take a lot of D-zone draws. Offensively, 18 points is nothing to scoff at, especially since he did it with only ten minutes of power-play time. It would serve him well to work a bit on his shot, but it's clear from watching him that Tom's made it a priority to develop his defensive game first and foremost. I think that's a respectable decision.

RH: Do you expect the Militia to trust him with big minutes when the regular season starts?

SF: I do, and rightly so. A two-way center can be the backbone of a franchise, especially in junior... not having to wait for a prospect to develop his defensive talents can mean the difference between success and failure in the playoffs.

LA: Stuart, where do you think Tom needs to improve his game?

SF: As a center, face-offs are so crucial to controlling the pace of the game. This was a major sore-spot for Tom in the preseason: 40% on the dot just isn’t going to cut it, especially as an otherwise defensively responsible center. With every other facet, this kid has the makings of a grade A defensive forward. Being subpar at face-offs means wasting everything else he brings to the table, especially at crucial late-game moments where the team needs to win a draw and clear the puck.

RH: An active SHL comparable for Tom?

LA: Calgary’s Nicky Pedersen Jr. (@mstuk41). The same attention to playing a two-way game, and the same offensive ceiling. Don’t be surprised to see Tom make the jump to the top-level earlier than some of his S50 classmates: if there’s one thing that coaches love, it’s being able to count on you in your own zone. That’s one aspect Tom has down.

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RH: James Ronlain (@Rankle), St. Louis’ promising sniper, comes in at number seven.

SF: Sniper is the right word. Prospects with quick releases come in more often than you might think. A lot of times, that kind of shot impresses at the junior level but when you make it to the SHL you start to see the goalies catch up. There’s a key that the best shooters realize: unpredictability can count for miles on a shot.

LA: And you think that’s the case here?

SF: Yeah, at first glance you see the 18-plus shooting percentage and think that James’ numbers will go down with time. But I’m not so sure… watching him play, you see the variety he has in his shots, and I think throughout his career he’ll be giving goalies fits.

RH: 15 goals isn’t anything to sneeze at.

LA: Certainly not.

SF: There are downsides to his game. I’d like to see him improve his positioning in the defensive zone, and pick up the effort a bit when it comes to back-checking and pressuring the puck carrier. As prolific a scorer as he is, there needs to be more to your game than offense if you want to get the most out of your ice time at the top level. I’d like to see him become more than a power-play specialist. The hockey mind is there, it just needs to be geared the right way, and a lot of that comes down to working with his coaches. But again, there’s real talent there.

RH: Is there an SHL comparable for Ronlain that you can think of?

SF: Right now, in terms of his style, I see a lot of Minnesota’s Bobby Watson (@Bobby Watson) in him. Whether he can keep up this scoring at the SHL level remains to be seen, and of course these comparisons are more about how they play the game than any sort of prediction for their effectiveness.

LA: So you see a future where James can slot in as a top-line winger?

SF: He absolutely has the skill for it. I’d predict a 25-30 goal scorer with big minutes on the power-play.

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RH: Here’s a guy at sixth that might surprise people: Anaheim’s third round selection, defenseman Ursin Zimmerman (@UrsinZ).

SF: That’s what it’s all about though, right? The draft position doesn’t make the player. You could say based on hype that he has no reason for being in the top-10, but it’s not about hype in this sport: it’s all about results. With Ursin, you've got a defender that can play at a high level in any situation.

LA: He has a skill-set that suggests an offensive defenseman in the making. He doesn’t have trouble in his own zone?

SF: Not at all. In fact, you may even say it’s a strength of his. It was his responsible two-way game that impressed me the most during preseason. The Outlaws had the second-ranked PK, in no small part to a minute-crunching Zimmerman. His instincts are sharp and his active stick in the defensive zone helped break up passing plays while Anaheim was down a man.

RH: Is there anything you'd suggest he work on in his game?

SF: Ideally, everything. You have to take into account that the skill-set of these kids is a fraction of what it needs to be at the professional level. But when it comes to areas he can focus on now, I'd say comfort moving the puck on the power-play. The Outlaws were last in the league with the man advantage, and no small part of that came from a lack of cohesion. If he can get to a point where he's quarterbacking a power-play, I foresee Ursin going early in the S50 draft.

RH: SHL comparable?

SF: San Francisco’s minute-crunching defenseman Isak Odegard (@prettyburn). I see similarities in their ability to move the puck, though a guy like Odegard utilizes his world-class speed to flee the zone, while Ursin relies on better-than-average puck retention skills to calm the pace of the game and prevent turnovers. Don’t be surprised to see him make a reliable top-pairing defenseman in the SHL some day.

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RH: Lethbridge’s Swiss center Luca Veccelli (@Symmetrik) makes his way to number five. What’s the run-down on this kid?

SF: Possibly the most comfortable in his class with the puck on his stick. He’s such a natural puck mover that I wonder if he eats and sleeps with one in both hands; supreme stick movement and hand-eye coordination make Luca a deadly presence on the power-play.

LA: Besides his trickiness with the puck, what impressed you the most?

SF: Well, a few things. First, he put up points. Not always the easiest thing to do as a rookie, especially with the ease at which he did it. I think at his peak, this kid is going to take over games all on his own. Not to knock his line-mates, but his skill is such that he can elevate the level of his entire unit on a power play or even at even-strength.

LA: Face-offs?

SF: A respectable 52% on the dot. Maybe that number goes down as we get deep into the season and he loses some focus due to fatigue, but it’s a solid place to start from.

RH: Best case scenario, what kind of pro are we going to see with Luca?

SF: Honestly, it’s hard to get a good comparison. The closest I can think of is Buffalo’s Hippo Passamus (@Mayuu); they have a similar quality where it looks like there’s glue on their sticks. But I think Luca has to work his ass off to get to Hippo’s level of defensive awareness. I guess you can say it’s exciting that Luca is made in a mold you don’t see as much as others in the SHL... that kind of uniqueness is refreshing.

LA: And how likely is it that he reaches his full potential?

SF: There are no sure bets in hockey. But Lethbridge will be happy to hear I think he’s about as close to one as you can be at his age.

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RH: I won’t lie… I was shocked by number four: Colorado Raptors defenseman Georgy Gorbachenko (@The BreakBot).

SF: That’s what’s great about these preseason tournaments: you get some pleasant surprises. Georgy is a shot-blocking machine, and the Raptors relied on him heavily to keep the puck out on the PK. His positional awareness on the back-end might be at a professional level already, even at his young age. Despite not really having the build for it, he doesn't shy away from contact along the boards, which allows him to maintain puck control when facing an aggressive fore-check.

LA: Is there a flaw in his game that you've zeroed in on?

SF: Absolutely. His skating has to get better. There's potential there... he has the capability to beat people in a footrace, but something about his stride hinders his agility when trying to be mobile in his own zone. He knows where to be, but it's taking too long to get there. When you chase the game, you take penalties, and Gorbachenko took his fair share.

RH: That sounds like a problem.

SF: Georgy does cover for it a bit with exceptional defensive instincts... but he could be so much more. Hopefully the coaches in Colorado can set him on the right track; if they do, this kid will be a steal at 62.

RH: What are we looking at here in terms of SHL comparables?

SF: There are a few defensemen that play a similar game at the top level, though all of them have much more developed strides. One in particular would be Manhattan's Barret McCarthy (@Inf1d3l). For Georgy's defensive potential, the sky is the limit... and it just so happens that McCarthy's defensive abilities are up there already. A focus on passing and positioning gives them a similar style. If he can dedicate himself to training his strength and agility during the offseason, I think we'll see a different #11 for the Raptors next year.

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RH: I see Disisde Dayudie (@"スウェグキング") as your number three, and Akira Ren (@Velevra) at two.

SF: It can be tough to separate Disisde and Akira. Both are incredibly promising defensemen that can put up points while performing well in their own zone. In fact, I don't really think much separated their performances in the preseason. Either could slot in at number two.

RH: What impressed you about them?

SF: In particular, I loved how well they worked together... they have a chemistry that usually takes years to develop. In terms of shooting, Akira had better luck than Disisde but they had similar shot totals and I don't think the former's release is that much better than the latter's. The most overwhelming feeling when taking their games in from the stand is how mature they seem, like they've been here before in a past life. There were times when I forgot they were rookies.

LA: You're talking about them like they're conjoined twins. Where did they differ, in your experience watching them?

SF: Akira's performance off the scoresheet did impress me a bit more. I think his passing ability stood out as being more developed than Disisde's, whereas Disisde was more comfortable making scoring plays while retaining possession. But they both need to work on their discipline without the puck.

RH: And then who do you see as SHL comparables for Lethbridge's high-profile rookie defensemen?

SF: Starting with Disisde, I see Tampa Bay's Kristaps Ball as a good comparison. Ball put up incredible numbers for the Barracuda last season, scoring 53 points in 50 games. It wouldn't shock me to see Dayudie hit them at the top level after a bit of seasoning. Both players focus on tenaciously keeping control of the puck, with their possession styles allowing for both offense creation and fleeing danger zones with little risk. Of course, the kid still has quite a way to go to hit Ball's level, but I see the potential there.

LA: What about Akira?

SF: Akira's great skating and adept passing reminds me a lot of West Kendall's Rex Kirkby (@Acsolap). Where they differ is mainly the work Rex has put into improving the physical side of his game. Akira will likely get there if he keeps working at it, and once he does, I think we'll be seeing the second coming of Kirkby.

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RH: And finally, at number one, Augustus Wang (@Ferda) of the Anchorage Armada.

SF: He did it all. Shot blocks, physical play, excellent play-making. The coaches at Anchorage placed a lot of faith in Augustus, and it paid off. He might just have the best defensive instincts of any rookie in the SMJHL this season. He was very adept at funneling forwards to the boards and then stripping them of the puck. He demonstrated patience as well... one that belied his age.

RH: A plus-minus of 15 is pretty great for a rookie.

LA: ...I'd be careful putting too much stock into that stat, Rob. It doesn't always tell the whole story.

RH: ...True.

SF: It is, but in this case I actually think it's selling his performance short. When his team needed a strong defensive presence, he was there every time. When the Armada were looking listless and broken, a neat little pass to a forward from his own blue line would send them screaming the other way. Maybe it's just luck, but he had impeccable timing all preseason long.

RH: What does he need to work on?

SF: Mainly, making the most of his chances in the offensive zone. A 4.88% shooting percentage hints at it, but there were times when I expected a player of his caliber to roof the puck over the goalie's glove, only to see it trickle weakly against their pad and kill the play. It's not just shot selection, either; while he was implicated in a lot of odd-man rushes for his team, the goalie could cheat knowing he'd inevitably pass it off instead of taking a chance from a high-danger area.

LA: SHL comparable?

SF: Texas' veteran defender The Dude (@Dude) strikes me as a great role model for Augustus when trying to figure out what parts of his game need work. They both have excellent puck retention skills, and like to create scoring chances from the point when on the power-play. If he wants to raise his game to Dude's level, he'll need to hit the gym over the off-season; a big aspect missing from this comparable is strength, and it plays a key role in defending against some of the monstrous forwards of the SHL... I'm pretty sure Mike Izzy's dad was a bear.

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RH: Four defensemen in the top-five... why do you think that is?

SF: We knew moving into the S49 SMJHL draft that teams were putting a premium on D. We just didn't know how much of that was team needs versus amateur scouts picking up on an excellent class of defensemen. I think some of these outstanding performances in preseason support the latter theory.

RH: Three of the top-five are Lethbridge Lions. How great was their draft?

SF: I suppose it only makes sense that a team with three picks in the first round would have a solid draft, but maybe GM JNH deserves credit making the obvious smart choices and not being tempted to go off the board. Besides the aforementioned three, you also have to look at defender Jack Wilson and winger Face of the Franchise moving forward.

RH: Speaking again of the S50 SHL rookie class as a whole, how likely is it to see these performances continue into the regular season?

SF: It's tough to say right now. There's a mental factor that comes into play with players this young, and it may not be hitting them yet that the expectations have risen with the quality of their opposition. If I had to guess, most of these names will start slow and pick up the pace as the regular season moves on.

RH: Stuart Fletchman, as always it was a pleasure to have you here. Coming up, Langer and I will take a closer look at the ice conditions in Anaheim's Outlaw Saloon. Are tumbleweeds interfering in the tempo of the games? Should the SMJHL head office outlaw spurs on skates? We'll be back after these words from our sponsors. ■

(3611 words, ready for grading.)

Henrik · 08-15-2019, 05:56 AM

Nice write up! I really enjoy reading all these rookie player analyses.

***PremierBromanov*** · 08-15-2019, 11:22 AM

Good stuff! Thanks for the shoutout! Love the color change for my photo Smile

SlashACM · 08-15-2019, 12:05 PM

Where da goalies at

Budgie · 08-15-2019, 01:07 PM

Ferrrrrda! Congrats bud! @Ferda Armada

But no goalies in the top 10? Disappointed.

*Ferda* · 08-15-2019, 04:38 PM

the babes and booze are key to getting some good reps in bois

Rublic · 08-15-2019, 04:47 PM

Great read!!! raiders

charlieconway · 08-15-2019, 05:46 PM

Would've included a goalie or two but none really impressed in the preseason, which is understandable given the nature of it. If I do something like this for the regular season I'll try and get a few goalie mentions in regardless.

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