03-26-2018, 03:22 PM
Well, folks, the preseason is over, and now that it is too late to change your predictions, here are my post-preseason Likelihood of Success rankings. A quick word on the new title. “Power rankings†is definitely a familiar title for these kind of things, but I don’t think that’s really what I am doing. If I were, I would just look at TPE counts, builds, etc. However, let’s say we are 3/4 the way through the season and the team at the bottom of the standings makes a huge trade to acquire the most talented players around the league. That team is now the best, but still likely wouldn’t make the playoffs, so I would still rank them low. Therefore, what I am really ranking is likelihood of winning it all.
#1: Hamilton Steelhawks
Record: 26-18-6 (3rd)
GD: +21 (2nd)
Talent: 1st
Last year, there seemed to be almost no difference between 4 different teams, and unfortunately for me, that hasn’t really changed much. However, it does look like the Steelhawks are starting to break away from the rest of the conference. They have the second-best group of forwards and second-best group of defensemen, as well as a middle of the pack set of goalies. Their preseason record wasn’t particularly inspiring, but certainly not bad enough to make me consider placing them lower.
#2: Minnesota Chiefs
Record: 30-13-7 (1st)
GD: +19 (3rd)
Talent: 3rd
Strictly speaking, Minnesota is second in total TPE, but the Wolfpack, who are VERY close (less than 200 across all players), seem to have it distributed in a way that I think will be more successful. Eventually, I might come up with a proper formula for weighing TPE by play time, but for now I just kinda eyeball it. Feel free to disregard. At any rate, Minnesota’s biggest strength is their group of forwards, boasting the best corps in the conference. As you might expect, their biggest weakness is defensemen, where they rank 5th. Fortunately, some of this weakness is offset by having the best goalie, but it will be interesting to see what kind of scoring they give up in the regular season. It certainly wasn’t a problem in the preseason. The Chiefs have to feel pretty good this year, having been the top team in preseason, which is an amazing accomplishment. I understand they did well last year as well, so even more reason to be confident.
#3: New England Wolfpack
Record: 29-14-7 (2nd)
GD: +27 (1st)
Talent: 4th
On paper, Minnesota and New England are pretty interchangeable, but given that I had arbitrarily demoted them in one category to create this tie, it seemed only fair to give them the tiebreaker. New England boasts the top defense in the league, with the finest group of defensemen and above average goalie play. Their forwards, however, are the lowest of all four “contenders.†Surprisingly, in the preseason, the Wolfpack outscored all other teams in the conference. I guess when your defense is that good, you can have your forwards play as recklessly as they want.
#4: West Kendall Platoon
Record: 19-28-3 (7th)
GD: -7 (5th)
Talent: 2nd
I have to assume the Platoon did some heavy experimenting (read: fucking around) with their preseason lines and strategies, but they also had some impressively bad luck. Their forwards and defensemen are each 3rd in the league, both very close behind Hamilton at #2 each, but where the Platoon really suffer is with goalie play, with only Toronto offering worse. Fortunately, their skaters were skilled enough to keep the puck away from their own net, resulting in only roughly average goals allowed, but required their forwards to play a bit too cautiously, leaving them 6th in points scored. Expect the Wolfpack to play more aggressively during the season and finish a lot better. Despite the significant difference in preseason results, I easily consider the Wolfpack one of the 4 contenders in the East.
#5: Buffalo Stampede
Record: 23-23-4 (5th)
GD: -22 (6th)
Talent: 5th
If I were going strictly off of the numbers, Manhattan would be ranked here instead, having slightly outperformed Buffalo in record and significantly outperformed them in goal differential. Buffalo has a slight edge in current talent, but realistically, not enough to outweigh the preseason showing. In truth, I am betting hard on Buffalo’s activity. Buffalo has 9 players who were rookies this year or last year, and should improve noticeably as the season goes on. I just can’t say the same for Manhattan. Buffalo’s greatest strength is easily their defense. While there is a huge drop off in total talent between the #4 (NEW) and the #5 (BUF), the Stampede’s defense is comparable to the 4 contenders. Their goalie play is also only a little below average. In fact, of all teams, Buffalo actually allowed the fewest points. Unfortunately, their biggest weakness is their forwards. Buffalo is effectively tied with the North Stars in forward talent, though I would actually give the edge to Toronto, making the Stampede currently the worst corps of forwards in the East, and their last place goals scored reflects that well.
#6: Manhattan Rage
Record: 25-23-2 (4th)
GD: +3 (4th)
Talent: 6th
In looking at TPE, there are really 3 tiers of teams in the East. The first four, Hamilton, West Kendall, Minnesota, and New England, are all separated by less than 1,000 TPE across 20 players. There is then a 4,500 TPE drop from #4 to #5, where Buffalo and Manhattan sit within 500 TPE of each other. From there is another huge drop (over 3k) before the final team of Toronto. I say this because, generally speaking, Manhattan and Buffalo are very close in overall talent. In allocation of talent, however, they are quite distinct. Manhattan’s forwards have about an extra 1k TPE over Buffalo’s, and Manhattan is also a lot more top-heavy with their forward talent as well. Despite having so much more TPE, Manhattan actually has less talent on their bottom 6. On defense, Buffalo has about an extra 2k TPE, yet this time the Stampede is the more top-heavy, with Manhattan’s depth being almost as strong as their top line, while Buffalo drops off sharply without their top defenseman. Manhattan does offer a bit more talent at goalie, but nowhere near enough to offset.
#7: Toronto North Stars
Record: 21-26-3 (6th)
GD: -36 (7th)
Talent: 7th
I wish I could do the standard strengths/weaknesses break down, but this is currently a team without strengths. Their only boast is that Toronto has the second-best backup goalie. However, they have the worst starting goalie, at about ½ the TPE of the second-worst. They also have the worst defensemen, a little over ½ the TPE of the second-worst. The area that is least of a weakness is their group of forwards, which is roughly tied for second-worst, and less than 1k shy of third-worst. Somehow, the Platoon finished last in preseason, but I genuinely can’t imagine any team out-losing Toronto. The only good news is that if they drafted well this season, they can upgrade quite a few positions in S41 and potentially start moving up.
#1: Hamilton Steelhawks
Record: 26-18-6 (3rd)
GD: +21 (2nd)
Talent: 1st
Last year, there seemed to be almost no difference between 4 different teams, and unfortunately for me, that hasn’t really changed much. However, it does look like the Steelhawks are starting to break away from the rest of the conference. They have the second-best group of forwards and second-best group of defensemen, as well as a middle of the pack set of goalies. Their preseason record wasn’t particularly inspiring, but certainly not bad enough to make me consider placing them lower.
#2: Minnesota Chiefs
Record: 30-13-7 (1st)
GD: +19 (3rd)
Talent: 3rd
Strictly speaking, Minnesota is second in total TPE, but the Wolfpack, who are VERY close (less than 200 across all players), seem to have it distributed in a way that I think will be more successful. Eventually, I might come up with a proper formula for weighing TPE by play time, but for now I just kinda eyeball it. Feel free to disregard. At any rate, Minnesota’s biggest strength is their group of forwards, boasting the best corps in the conference. As you might expect, their biggest weakness is defensemen, where they rank 5th. Fortunately, some of this weakness is offset by having the best goalie, but it will be interesting to see what kind of scoring they give up in the regular season. It certainly wasn’t a problem in the preseason. The Chiefs have to feel pretty good this year, having been the top team in preseason, which is an amazing accomplishment. I understand they did well last year as well, so even more reason to be confident.
#3: New England Wolfpack
Record: 29-14-7 (2nd)
GD: +27 (1st)
Talent: 4th
On paper, Minnesota and New England are pretty interchangeable, but given that I had arbitrarily demoted them in one category to create this tie, it seemed only fair to give them the tiebreaker. New England boasts the top defense in the league, with the finest group of defensemen and above average goalie play. Their forwards, however, are the lowest of all four “contenders.†Surprisingly, in the preseason, the Wolfpack outscored all other teams in the conference. I guess when your defense is that good, you can have your forwards play as recklessly as they want.
#4: West Kendall Platoon
Record: 19-28-3 (7th)
GD: -7 (5th)
Talent: 2nd
I have to assume the Platoon did some heavy experimenting (read: fucking around) with their preseason lines and strategies, but they also had some impressively bad luck. Their forwards and defensemen are each 3rd in the league, both very close behind Hamilton at #2 each, but where the Platoon really suffer is with goalie play, with only Toronto offering worse. Fortunately, their skaters were skilled enough to keep the puck away from their own net, resulting in only roughly average goals allowed, but required their forwards to play a bit too cautiously, leaving them 6th in points scored. Expect the Wolfpack to play more aggressively during the season and finish a lot better. Despite the significant difference in preseason results, I easily consider the Wolfpack one of the 4 contenders in the East.
#5: Buffalo Stampede
Record: 23-23-4 (5th)
GD: -22 (6th)
Talent: 5th
If I were going strictly off of the numbers, Manhattan would be ranked here instead, having slightly outperformed Buffalo in record and significantly outperformed them in goal differential. Buffalo has a slight edge in current talent, but realistically, not enough to outweigh the preseason showing. In truth, I am betting hard on Buffalo’s activity. Buffalo has 9 players who were rookies this year or last year, and should improve noticeably as the season goes on. I just can’t say the same for Manhattan. Buffalo’s greatest strength is easily their defense. While there is a huge drop off in total talent between the #4 (NEW) and the #5 (BUF), the Stampede’s defense is comparable to the 4 contenders. Their goalie play is also only a little below average. In fact, of all teams, Buffalo actually allowed the fewest points. Unfortunately, their biggest weakness is their forwards. Buffalo is effectively tied with the North Stars in forward talent, though I would actually give the edge to Toronto, making the Stampede currently the worst corps of forwards in the East, and their last place goals scored reflects that well.
#6: Manhattan Rage
Record: 25-23-2 (4th)
GD: +3 (4th)
Talent: 6th
In looking at TPE, there are really 3 tiers of teams in the East. The first four, Hamilton, West Kendall, Minnesota, and New England, are all separated by less than 1,000 TPE across 20 players. There is then a 4,500 TPE drop from #4 to #5, where Buffalo and Manhattan sit within 500 TPE of each other. From there is another huge drop (over 3k) before the final team of Toronto. I say this because, generally speaking, Manhattan and Buffalo are very close in overall talent. In allocation of talent, however, they are quite distinct. Manhattan’s forwards have about an extra 1k TPE over Buffalo’s, and Manhattan is also a lot more top-heavy with their forward talent as well. Despite having so much more TPE, Manhattan actually has less talent on their bottom 6. On defense, Buffalo has about an extra 2k TPE, yet this time the Stampede is the more top-heavy, with Manhattan’s depth being almost as strong as their top line, while Buffalo drops off sharply without their top defenseman. Manhattan does offer a bit more talent at goalie, but nowhere near enough to offset.
#7: Toronto North Stars
Record: 21-26-3 (6th)
GD: -36 (7th)
Talent: 7th
I wish I could do the standard strengths/weaknesses break down, but this is currently a team without strengths. Their only boast is that Toronto has the second-best backup goalie. However, they have the worst starting goalie, at about ½ the TPE of the second-worst. They also have the worst defensemen, a little over ½ the TPE of the second-worst. The area that is least of a weakness is their group of forwards, which is roughly tied for second-worst, and less than 1k shy of third-worst. Somehow, the Platoon finished last in preseason, but I genuinely can’t imagine any team out-losing Toronto. The only good news is that if they drafted well this season, they can upgrade quite a few positions in S41 and potentially start moving up.
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