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+---- Thread: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL (/showthread.php?tid=131095)
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - spooked - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 11:20 AMluke Wrote: First on the goal slider, we lowered it to NHL goal sliders https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=127954
So its about 6.1 goals per game. If you want to petition HO to lower it, talk to Finn. I personally think its fine looking at the data I provided. I don't think thats the reason why we see a lot of blowouts, its just the way our league is set up, and FHM engine reacting to how we do it. Maybe we should lower it, its not my call to make.
Ok onto the just the amount of goals scored in general. This is number when one team scored 7+ goals or got scored 7+ goals against
Shows pretty much what the eye shows. Yes, good teams also give up a lot of goals. But they score a lot more 7+ goal games. This is also S60-S70, so it gives a good amount of context. Someone like NEW, NOL, BAP. They were good at one portion but tanking the other, so thats why they are disproportionate. Minnesota got scored on almost 10% of all 7+ goals allowed, so maybe you are seeing it with different point of view because you are the team that is getting blown out the most.
No engine is perfect, and the way we are using the FHM engine is completely different than what FHM expects us to be. Like go try our tactics in a NHL gamemode. I tried it, the team did terrible. Of course we want to try to get it near NHL, but its impossible to get there exactly. So whats the number for you. Is it 80% there? is it 90% there?
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/711007308846596100/1109854518281240627/image.png)
Im looking at the whole schedule including everyone. But that is my question. If the goals per game should be around 6 for realism, as stated in the SOTU post, why do we not care that it's closer to 8? and has a peak of over 15?
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - Eggcracker - 05-21-2023
I clicked into this misreading the title as "Purity"....I guess I still read the whole thing....
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - luke - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 01:09 PMspooked Wrote: Im looking at the whole schedule including everyone. But that is my question. If the goals per game should be around 6 for realism, as stated in the SOTU post, why do we not care that it's closer to 8? and has a peak of over 15?
@WannabeFinn
As for the peak of over 15, because thats how randomness works. If you put an average of 6.1 or whatever, why are there games where you score 3? or 0? in 700 games or whatever there has only been 1 16 goal game, 2 15G, 3 14G, 7 13G, 18 12G, 33 11G. Pretty good for randomness
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - spooked - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 01:25 PMluke Wrote: @WannabeFinn
As for the peak of over 15, because thats how randomness works. If you put an average of 6.1 or whatever, why are there games where you score 3? or 0? in 700 games or whatever there has only been 1 16 goal game, 2 15G, 3 14G, 7 13G, 18 12G, 33 11G. Pretty good for randomness
For randomness in numbers from a stats perspective maybe, but for a simulation of professional sports, I would argue that it's not, but that is more of a subjective issue.
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - luke - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 02:38 PMspooked Wrote: For randomness in numbers from a stats perspective maybe, but for a simulation of professional sports, I would argue that it's not, but that is more of a subjective issue.
huh? I mean we are playing a stats game though and the very core. We put numbers in(attributes, strats, lines), and numbers come out. Its not like we flip a switch so that stats go "oh its a simulation of professional sports, lets throw out the 15 goal games and try again". We give them inputs, the engine does its thing and gives outputs. And it gives outliers, which we see with 15 goal games, 14 goal games, etc. The fact that it happens 0.05% of the time means its an outlier. It can happen. Just because you don't think it will happen doesn't mean that it can't
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - boom - 05-21-2023
From my FHM 8 experience, the “player scheme fits” for, say, a good Swedish league team would probably be somewhat close to what a weaker SHL team would look like, and they’re being thrown out there against the equivalent of the Carolina Hurricanes. I don’t think it’s too far off.
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - CptSquall - 05-21-2023
So the Cole’s Notes are that:
Early data has no middling teams.
The above makes scoring seem and feel higher.
Not enough war rooms know how to get the most out of their team.
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - spooked - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 02:56 PMboom Wrote: From my FHM 8 experience, the “player scheme fits” for, say, a good Swedish league team would probably be somewhat close to what a weaker SHL team would look like, and they’re being thrown out there against the equivalent of the Carolina Hurricanes. I don’t think it’s too far off.That's because we set the TPE available and update scale such that at the level of available players, replacement level is that low relative to high tpe. We have people bidding 10M for replacement level players in IFA... and they aren't even good in our Sim. We control all the mechanisms to determine how strong or weak the players and teams are at different levels of tpe, so you can say that the results are expected and fine for our ecosystem, but I am challenging that the way we have our ecosystem setup is off because those results are happening and replacement level teams ARE that bad relative to peak teams when they don't need to be.
Either the cap is too lenient letting top teams be so far away from replacement level, the top TPE is still too much better than mid TPE, or the low/mid is too much worse than it should be to have more realistic/competitive results. You can say the results are expected but that doesn't mean that they should be the way they are to have our league be in a healthy spot where things look and feel good/fair for people. It's all subjective, but that's how I feel.
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - aleks - 05-21-2023
So my question is how are war rooms supposed to get better? How are GMs supposed to get better? You can't test sim, so are you supposed to experiment with what you can in pre/reg season and risk fucking your season up? I'm sure lots of GMs are ready to listen if people are willing to dispense wisdom on tactical/line construction stuff
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - Citizen of Adraa - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 02:56 PMboom Wrote: From my FHM 8 experience, the “player scheme fits” for, say, a good Swedish league team would probably be somewhat close to what a weaker SHL team would look like, and they’re being thrown out there against the equivalent of the Carolina Hurricanes. I don’t think it’s too far off.
so we are using the Hurricanes as the prototypical strong team nowadays? How times change
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - sköldpaddor - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 04:19 PMaleks Wrote: So my question is how are war rooms supposed to get better? How are GMs supposed to get better? You can't test sim, so are you supposed to experiment with what you can in pre/reg season and risk fucking your season up? I'm sure lots of GMs are ready to listen if people are willing to dispense wisdom on tactical/line construction stuff
Hard agree. I have been of the opinion for a long time that access to knowledge and resources is one of our biggest problems. Hell, I was GMing in Nevada for four or five seasons before I learned stuff that was apparently common knowledge to a lot of other people. I think that we have/had a cool opportunity here in the early seasons of FHM8 that we will never have again, to tinker and find things that will work before everybody inevitably gets locked back into some hard meta that you can't succeed without.
But things are already settling into that. We have a league where most teams run all-offense all the time tactics, maximizing sliders that say "too much will pull you out of position" or "this setting will make you less effective defensively" - the majority of teams are just trying to out-score the other team at the expense of defense, so it's entirely unsurprising to me that we're seeing fifty-four goals in a four-game sim night (that is not an exaggeration, that happened once this season). It's just really hard to experiment with anything else when the majority of the league has already decided we're doing the goals goals goals goals 24/7 thing again.
I will put this out there - I am a pretty open book when it comes to my FHM knowledge. If you're nice to me and we talk a decent amount, I'm not keeping any secrets from you. I just try not to go aggressively critiquing my friends' lines and telling them how to do their jobs. At the same time, though, I don't know everything - I know a few things that have worked relatively well for me on the teams I've had a hand in coaching, but I think/hope/pray that there are so many other options. I want people to figure out things that I don't know, I want there to be more viable options than us all getting railroaded into the same old meta all over again.
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - golden_apricot - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 04:59 PMCitizen of Adraa Wrote: so we are using the Hurricanes as the prototypical strong team nowadays? How times change
who else would we use? some shit bag team with one playoff series win in the last 19 years like the leafs?
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - Citizen of Adraa - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 05:06 PMgolden_apricot Wrote: who else would we use? some shit bag team with one playoff series win in the last 19 years like the leafs?
you turned this into a dig against the Leafs, not me
I thought the stereotypically good team are like Bruins or some shit
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - aleks - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 05:26 PMCitizen of Adraa Wrote: you turned this into a dig against the Leafs, not meThe team you are thinking of are the canucks buster
I thought the stereotypically good team are like Bruins or some shit
RE: Has Parity Improved: An Analysis of the FHM Era of the SHL - golden_apricot - 05-21-2023
05-21-2023, 05:26 PMCitizen of Adraa Wrote: you turned this into a dig against the Leafs, not me
I thought the stereotypically good team are like Bruins or some shit
nah cant be the bruins. good teams get past round one at least