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Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - Printable Version

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Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - reid - 02-11-2020

(1140 words + some stats work, ready for grading)
 
With the SMJHL All Star game having recently been completed, I thought I would take a look at how things were shaking out two thirds of the way through the season. As everyone likes advanced stats, I thought I would take a crack at offensive, defensive, and total point shares. I used Hockey Reference’s formulas and excel to make the work less labour intensive. Without further ado, lets take a look at the results.
 
Offensive Point Shares:


  1. Kaarlo Kekkonen, Detroit, 7.26
  2. Indigo Trevino, Halifax, 6.86
  3. Daniel Bischoff, Anchorage, 6.31
  4. James Ronlain, St. Louis, 6.08
  5. Abel Skinner, Halifax, 5.79
  6. Mitchell van der Heijden, Anchorage, 5.79
  7. Cody, Newfoundland, 5.45
  8. Francois Breton, Vancouver, 5.25
  9. Cal Labovitch, Detroit, 5.23
  10. Ruslan Zaporozhets, St. Louis, 5.21



In first place by a large margin is Detroit’s Kaarlo Kekkonen. The winger was the only player to crack 7 offensive point shares so far this season. He has been on an absolute tear recently, and has a league leading 44 points. His massive amount of OPS would be enough for 5th overall in total point shares just by themselves. Kaarlo is making a strong case for the MVP, and if he continues on his hot streak, he is sure to get some attention at the end of year awards voting.

Detroit’s second member of the list, Cal Labovitch, sits at 9th in OPS. He currently is sitting tied for second in the league with 37 points. After leading the league in points for a large section of the season, Kaarlo has overtaken Cal as the leader for Detroit and League points. Cal is weathering a 6 game goal scoring drought, and while he is a pass first player, he won’t be kept off the scoresheet for much longer.

Halifax, St. Louis, and Anchorage also have two players each in the top 10 of OPS. Abel Skinner of Halifax is especially impressive, as he is leading all defenseman in offensive point shares. Flash Gordan is 0.6 OPS behind, sitting in 11th overall for OPS.

There were 56 (out of 189) players who finished with a negative Offensive Point Shares value, most of whom were rookies. The worst of the ratings was Izzy Dudemiester with a -1.48 OPS.
 
Defensive Point Shares:

  1. Zbigniew Pokrywka, Carolina, 2.68
  2. Flash Gordon, St. Louis, 2.59
  3. Daniel Kuster, Colorado, 2.56
  4. Denver Wolfe, Colorado, 2.56
  5. Sabo Tage, Vancouver, 2.50
  6. Zlatan Ibrahimovic Jr., Vancouver, 2.50
  7. Noah Nystrom, Kelowna, 2.13
  8. Alex Petrenko, Anaheim, 2.09
  9. Khabib Nurmagomedov, Detroit, 1.94
  10. Luciano Vessot, Kelowna, 1.94
 
Here we have the top 10 for defensive point shares through 33 games. None of the players who showed up in the top 10 for OPS are present here, however as mentioned, Flash Gordon placed 11th in OPS so he was close. Alex Petrenko of Anaheim was the second closest, as he placed 16th in OPS. Unsurprisingly, all ten of these players are defenseman. The highest-ranking forward was St. Louis’s James Ronlain with a 1.23 DPS, good for 35th overall. Based purely on numbers, you can see that Colorado, Kelowna, and Vancouver all have a pair of strong defenders.

Just outside the top 10 are rookies Ambacas Cuddles with 1.93 DPS and Magnus Liljestrom with 1.91 DPS, good for 11th and 12th overall in DPS. This is a very impressive showing for the rookies, as a large number of their bretheren were found at the bottom of the rankings.

For DPS, only 7 players had negative scores, with the lowest being Rinako Yukikami with a -0.34 DPS.

 
Total Point Shares:
 
  1. Kaarlo Kekkonen, Detroit, 8.28
  2. Flash Gordon, St. Louis, 7.77
  3. Indigo Trevino, Halifax, 7.63
  4. Daniel Bischoff, Anchorage, 7.48
  5. James Ronlain, St. Louis, 7.31
  6. Daniel Kuster, Colorado, 6.92
  7. Alex Petrenko, Anaheim, 6.87
  8. Mitchell van der Heijden, Anchorage, 6.78
  9. Abel Skinner, Halifax, 6.68
  10. Zlatan Ibrahimovic Jr., Vancouver, 6.53
Once we get to the top 10 for the total point shares, we can see the bigger picture shake out. Kaarlo Kekkonen, despite being ranked 53rd overall in DPS, is still the clear leader in total point shares. Flash Gordon comes in second with a more even and well-rounded approach to the game. The epitome of a two way player, Gordon should also garner MVP votes come awards season.

The biggest discrepancy between OPS and DPS rank among the top 10 in TPS is Indigo Trevino, who ranked 92nd in DPS, which ultimately slid him down to 3rd overall. 

The top 10 was fairly evenly split between forwards and defenders. Those defenders who find themselves in the top 10 are all fairly well rounded, being two-way threats. Leader of DPS Zbigniew Pokrywka ended up 11th in TPS.

Overall, 34 players ended up with a negative TPS score, lead by Kelowna forward Oscar Cordero with a -1.38 TPS, while most of the 34 players were rookies.

Speaking of rookies…

Rookie TPS:

                              (OPS,DPS,TPS)
  1. Danny White (Rookie), Anchorage, 2.54 0.98 3.51
  2. Erben Kasius (Rookie), St. Louis, 1.71 1.67 3.38
  3. Magnus Liljestrom (Rookie), Detroit, 1.35 1.91 3.26
  4. Ambacas Cuddles (Rookie), Carolina, 1.21 1.93 3.13
  5. Vince Chalut (Rookie), Newfoundland, 1.29 1.56 2.85
  6. Edward Williams (Rookie), Detroit, 1.90 0.70 2.60
  7. Lucas Hellquist (Rookie), Halifax, 1.65 0.71 2.35
  8. Chris Cerullo (Rookie), Colorado, 1.36 0.92 2.27
  9. Gregory Stiemsma (Rookie), Newfoundland, 1.56 0.68 2.25
  10. Axel Meszaros (Rookie), St. Louis, 0.56 1.68 2.24
 
Here is the top 10 rankings (by TPS) for rookies. Danny White leads the way, helped by his monster 2.54 OPS, first among rookies. Detroit’s Edward Williams was second in OPS for rookies with his 1.90. Two rookies from Detroit, St. Louis, and Newfoundland all appear in these rankings, indicating that they all had very good drafts.

Goalie TPS (GPS):
 
  1. White Goodman, Vancouver, 7.25
  2. Mike Hroch, Carolina, 5.54
  3. Olli Saarinen Jr., Halifax, 5.30
  4. Elizabeth Doyle, St. Louis, 4.89
  5. Ian Venables, Anchorage, 4.55
  6. Samat Beibitzhanov, Colorado, 4.49
  7. Strom Chamberlain, Anaheim, 4.28
  8. A Jobin ®, Detroit, 4.14
  9. Steven Vassallo, Newfoundland, 3.46
  10. Luca Del Vecchio, Kelowna, 3.30
Not to be forgotten, here are the Goalie Point Shares. Leading the way is White Goodman from Vancouver, with a huge almost 2 point lead over second place Mike Hroch. That gap is almost as large as the gap between 2nd and 10th. Also of note is A Jobin from Detroit, putting up a stellar rookie season in net as the starter for Detroit.

Award Predictions:

Using TPE to do some predictions, here we go:

First All Star Team (3F-2D-1G):

Kaarlo Kekkonen – Daniel Bischoff – Indigo Trevino
                Flash Gordon – Daniel Kuster
                         White Goodman

Second All Star team:

James Ronlain – Mitchel van der Heijeden – Ruslan Zaporozhets
                      Alex Petrenko – Abel Skinner
                                     Mike Hroch

All Rookie Team:

Danny White – Edward Williams – Lucas Hellquist
                Erben Kasius – Magnus Liljestrom
                                A Jobin

Esa Anrikkanen (Top Rookie) – Danny White
Tom Corcoran (Top Goalie) – White Goodman
Quilha Agante (Top Defenseman) – Flash Gordon
Brandon Holmes (Top Defensive Forward) – James Ronlain
Ideen Fallah (MVP) – Kaarlo Kekkonen

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - roastpuff - 02-11-2020

Great analysis! I'll steal those predictions for later!

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - Chevy - 02-11-2020

Guess I really need to up my game...

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - trella - 02-11-2020

Really happy to be doing this well defensively!

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - ChrisFromRMNB - 02-11-2020

I'm just glad I'm not a complete bust

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - reid - 02-11-2020

02-11-2020, 09:06 PMChrisFromRMNB Wrote: I'm just glad I'm not a complete bust
 There is still time

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - mxman991 - 02-11-2020

I’m so glad I decided to take this season off. Nice work though btw.

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - Mutedfaith - 02-12-2020

I thought we were friends.

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - reid - 02-12-2020

02-12-2020, 02:25 AMMutedfaith Wrote: I thought we were friends.
Almost the entire difference between you and Kaarlo was those 6 goals... OPS favours goal scorers because it uses goals created (G+0.5A), so unless you have way more assists, a playmaking forward like you is a little undervalued. I’ll do one at the end of the season, you just need to catch up! Smile

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - Mutedfaith - 02-12-2020

I thought me and math were friends.

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - PremierBromanov - 02-12-2020

Can we look at the data?

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - reid - 02-12-2020

02-12-2020, 04:51 PMPremierBromanov Wrote: Can we look at the data?
Currently this is housed on my work pc so I can’t upload it to google sheets. I can look into posting screenshots of the team by team results if there is interest

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - JMacNCheese - 02-13-2020

I think you forgot something?

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - PremierBromanov - 02-13-2020

02-12-2020, 05:00 PMreid_sutherland Wrote:
02-12-2020, 04:51 PMPremierBromanov Wrote: Can we look at the data?
Currently this is housed on my work pc so I can’t upload it to google sheets. I can look into posting screenshots of the team by team results if there is interest

I'm sorry, you cant use google sheets at work? What kind of fascism is this?

RE: Point Shares Analysis 2/3 through the season - LordBirdman - 02-13-2020

02-13-2020, 10:17 AMPremierBromanov Wrote:
02-12-2020, 05:00 PMreid_sutherland Wrote: Currently this is housed on my work pc so I can’t upload it to google sheets. I can look into posting screenshots of the team by team results if there is interest

I'm sorry, you cant use google sheets at work? What kind of fascism is this?

Maybe he is part of the excel master race and doesn't care to try to import his pristine spreadsheet into an inferior form.