+- Simulation Hockey League (https://simulationhockey.com)
+-- Forum: League Media (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=610)
+--- Forum: SMJHL Media (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=48)
+---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=403)
+---- Thread: [RBM2] Breaking down the playoff matchups we know so far (/showthread.php?tid=103664)
[RBM2] Breaking down the playoff matchups we know so far - boom - 02-23-2020
[RBM2, prompt 1, 2977 words from wordcounter.net, ready for grading]
Ahead of the wildcard round, we're going to take a bit of a deep dive into the four wildcard and quarterfinal matches that have been set so far, and see how the teams stack up. Who's got the advantage in which areas? What do teams need to do to succeed? Let's find out.
Wildcard Round
#7 Kelowna (25-18-7) vs #10 Halifax (18-27-5) 
Offense
Kelowna
Goals For: 168 (2nd)
Shots: 445 (2nd)
Power Play: 20.90% (8th)
Halifax
Goals For: 154 (8th)
Shots: 1275 (8th)
Power Play: 17.99% (10th)
The Knights excelled offensively this year, having the second-best offense in the league. Their top line of Gylfi Eriksson, Ryan Shepard and Andrey Barbashev II all put up at least 17 goals and 42 points. In addition, Danila Zhernov and Luciano Vessot provided a lot of firepower from the back end. The main issue, however, is the bottom six. Rocco Berni was decent as a rookie with 6 goals and 22 points, but there's a sharp drop-off after that, with Nicklaus Engel being the only player from the third and fourth lines to have more than six goals. If the Knights' top two lines get shut down, they'll be in trouble. The power play being relatively mediocre doesn't help.
On the other side of the ice, Halifax has some pretty good firepower of their own. Indigo Trevino finished second in the league in goals with 26, and along with Thicc Cheezy and Al Kayhall, the Raiders have a legit first line. Abel Skinner put up an impressive 48 points from the back end as well, and the second line are no slouches either with all recording more than 30 points. This is where the positives end, as the Raiders have next to no depth in the bottom six. Alexander Roach, a rookie, paced these lines with 14 points, and Luke Niemi was the only player not on the top two lines or defensive pairings to have more than five goals. In addition, despite Halifax having three players with five or more power play goals in Trevino, Cheezy and Skinner, the Raiders have the worst power play in the SMJHL by almost a full percentage point.
Defense
Kelowna
Goals Against: 150 (3rd)
Shots Against: 1315 (3rd)
Penalty Kill: 76.27% (T-8th)
Halifax
Goals Against: 175 (10th)
Shots Against: 1379 (7th)
Penalty Kill: 76.27% (T-8th)
Kelowna boasts a strong top two defensive pairings that helped them to have the third-best defense in the SMJHL, with the foursome of Danila Zhernov, Luciano Vessot, Adam Schianna and Noah Nystrom all playing around 1100 minutes or more throughout the season. Nystrom and Zhernov are a fearsome top pairing with both having around 80 hits and 50 or more blocked shots. Michael Preeb and new acquisition Mikkel Asmus Sondergard have filled in nicely as a third pairing. The main concern is how much time the team spends in the box, with Preeb, Nystrom and Zhernov all having more than 40 minutes in the box. The penalty kill also isn't very good, though the Knights are fairly average in penalty kill chances with 177.
Looking at Halifax, their defense is basically Abel Skinner and rookie Valentin Kalashnikov, and not much else. Skinner in particular is an absolute stud on both ends of the ice, with 48 points and 76 blocked shots, while Kalashnikov frightens opposing forwards with 85 hits. Unfortunately, the top pairing plays way too many minutes compared to the rest of the defense because there's not much else to get excited about here. The second and third pairings for the Raiders are atrocious. Blake Feaux and Jack von Arx are both +10, true, but they played the fewest minutes of the defense and Feaux led the team in penalty minutes with 64. Simon Moreau was a nice surprise offensively with 24 points, but he was also a -10. To win, Halifax needs to get their middling penalty kill back on track, stay out of the box, and hope their second and third pairings can step up so that Skinner and Kalashnikov don't have to carry everyone.
Goaltending
Kelowna
Luca Del Vecchio: 17-10-5, 2.73 GAA, 0.887 SP%
Cillian Kavanagh: 8-8-2, 2.97 GAA, 0.897 SP%
Halifax
Olli Saarinen Jr.: 16-24-4, 3.37 GAA, 0.878 SP%
Skyler Stevens: 2-3-1, 3.73 GAA, 0.870 GP%
Kelowna does have the better defense in front of their goalies, but Del Vecchio has shown that he can step up when he needs to. If he goes cold, the Knights have an adequate backup option in Cillian Kavanagh, who showed promise in his 18 appearances this season. Kelowna did a pretty good job of limiting opposing chances as well, surrendering the third-fewest shots. In the other net, Olli Saarinen Jr. put up middling stats behind a porous Raiders defense. He'll likely be tested a lot in this series, with Halifax allowing the fourth-most shots in the SMJHL.
Prediction
Kelowna in 5. While the Raiders have some impressive top-end talent in players like Trevino, Skinner and Kayhall, and Saarinen is a capable vet who has the ability to steal a game, the Knights have some more depth on both offense and defense, which is critical in the war of attrition that is the playoffs. Skinner and Kalashnikov can't play the whole game, and if Kelowna can successfully neutralize Halifax's best players they should be able to feast on their awful bottom lines.
#8 Newfoundland (24-21-5) vs #9 Anchorage (21-23-6) 
Offense
Newfoundland
Goals For: 163 (5th)
Shots For: 1431 (3rd)
Power Play: 23.76% (3rd)
Anchorage
Goals For: 157 (6th)
Shots For: 1335 (6th)
Power Play: 24.42% (2nd)
Both these teams thrive off their potent power plays, with Newfoundland in particular having success with the man advantage. Cody put up 11 goals, Akira Ren had 8, Rintarou Okabe had 7, and Disisde Dayudie had 6. The top line and a defensive corps that is gifted offensively, with five blueliners putting up more than 20 points, should allow them to stay in games. However, there is a catch: the depth. Outside of the top two forward lines, Gregory Stiemsa had the most points with 20. In addition, that vaunted power play won't help the Berserkers when the Armada had the third-fewest penalty kill opportunities in the league, and the Berserkers' stats are slightly inflated by having the most power-play chances in the regular season. These games will be won or lost at even strength.
Looking at Anchorage, their power play was even better, scoring on almost one of every four chances for them. The Armada offense runs through two players: Daniel Bischoff and Mitchell van der Heijden. Having two point-per-game players on the same line will make any team dangerous, and their power play additionally had only 172 opportunities to go to work, tied for the second fewest in the league. Augustus Wang is also a great offensive talent from the back line with 14 goals and 44 points. However, outside of these two, Anchorage's forward corps is merely average. Their linemate Jay Reeves was the forward with the third-most points on the team, and he only had 33. In addition, Newfoundland is the most disciplined team in the league, only being shorthanded 153 times this season. If the power play never gets to go to work, the Armada may be high and dry.
Defense
Newfoundland
Goals Against: 167 (7th)
Shots Against: 1257 (1st)
Penalty Kill: 77.78% (6th)
Anchorage
Goals Against: 170 (8th)
Shots Against: 1425 (10th)
Penalty Kill: 77.64% (7th)
Newfoundland plays a very disciplined style of play, limiting the chances that the opponent can get. The defense is anchored by two big names in Akira Ren and Disisde Dayudie, both of whom are in their final seasons as Berserkers and know their stuff. The depth is filled out by promising rookie Juuka Timonen and the physical Jakob Hamr, as well as depth options Will Windsor and Vince Chalut. With the goaltending situation (which will be discussed in the next section), it's a good way to keep them in games. The issue is that Hamr takes far too many penalties, with 85 PIM, and both Ren and Dayudie are offensive defensemen and posted a -16 this season.
Anchorage, meanwhile, has some obvious shortcomings. The team gives up the most shots on goal, relying too heavily on their goalies to win games for them. In addition, they have one Stan Hanson on their second line. The feisty winger provides offense and energy, but he also has 115 penalty minutes. The Armada only had to kill off 161 penalties, the third-fewest in the league, but over a quarter of those were for Hanson. The combination of a team that gets pelted with too many shots and a single player with major discipline issues is one that may be too much to overcome.
Goaltending
Newfoundland
Steven Vassallo: 16-13-4, 3.07 GAA, 0.874 SP%
Ryan Aaron: 8-8-1, 3.38 GAA, 0.867 SP%
Anchorage
Ian Venables: 12-13-2, 3.15 GAA, 0.891 SP%
Sergei Potvinov: 9-10-4, 3.35 GAA, 0.876 SP%
And here is what may be the greatest equalizer in the series. Steven Vassallo, despite facing the second-fewest shots in the league, had the second-worst save percentage and the fourth-worst goals-against average among SMJHL starting goalies. If he can't elevate his game, the Berserkers are cooked, as Ryan Aaron was only average in the games he played. The Armada experimented with a two-goalie platoon this season, getting middling results out of both of them. It's tough to tell how much of the blame is on the goalies with how many shots Anchorage gave up, but they worked with that they had.
Prediction
Anchorage in 6. Both teams are similar, with disciplined offenses that rely on the power play and questions on defense. The key, however, is probably going to be goaltending, and the Armada goalies have posted fairly good results while being barraged with shots. Newfoundland's goalies just haven't shown the extra gear needed to win in the playoffs. Anchorage additionally has a bizarre home-road split this year, going 14-8-3 away from home while posting a terrible 7-15-3 record on their own ice.
Quarterfinal Round
#3 Colorado (27-16-7) vs #6 St. Louis (26-19-5) 
Offense
Colorado
Goals For: 148 (9th)
Shots For: 1231 (9th)
Power Play: 18.92% (9th)
St. Louis
Goals For: 166 (T-3rd)
Shots For: 1467 (2nd)
Power Play: 22.58% (4th)
Despite having the third-best record in the SMJHL, the Raptors definitely didn't do it on the back of their offensive firepower. Henrik Lekberg Osterman led the charge with 50 points, but most of the scoring was done by the first line and top defensive pairing. If they get shut down, the question arises of whether the other lines can elevate their game, and with Henrik Lundqvist Jr. being the fourth-best forward at 25 points, alarms are ringing. In addition, the power play was a question all year and the team doesn't get enough shots on net at all.
Looking at St. Louis, the gameplan was simple: shoot a lot and score a lot. This team is incredibly deep on offense, with eight forwards putting up more than 25 points. James Ronlain was their leading scorer with 50 points, and his teammates aren't far behind. With six players around or above 150 shots, they're not afraid to take chances to get the puck in the net. Flash Gordon has a strong ability to start a breakout as well, with 38 assists. They'll be a matchup nightmare all series.
Defense
Colorado
Goals Against: 149 (2nd)
Shots Against: 1267 (2nd)
Penalty Kill: 78.85% (3rd)
St. Louis
Goals Against: 157 (5th)
Shots Against: 1339 (6th)
Penalty Kill: 78.03% (4th)
Colorado's defense is the heart of this team. Denver Wolfe and Daniel Kuster anchor the first pair, with Heat Siecker and depth pieces like Bradley Barkov, Bryce Turner and Glen Anders rounding out the defensive core. In addition, the Raptors have the third-best penalty kill in the SMJHL and had the second-fewest penalty kill opportunities in the regular season. They play a disciplined brand of hockey and are very difficult to beat. They'll have their work cut out for them against that deep Scarecrows offense.
The Scarecrows defense isn't as deep as Colorado's, but they do have some nice pieces on the back end that should help them in this series. Flash Gordon is a great two-way asset with 80 hits and 57 blocked shots, and other names like Erben Kasius and Axel Meszaros have done well for themselves this year. The wildcard, though, is Luc-Pierre Letourneau-Lebrunette. The physical defender led the league in hits by a country mile with 193, but also had a staggering 153 PIM. Even with Colorado's popgun offense, that many penalty kills takes a toll on a team's energy, and if they're killing too many penalties the dam will break eventually.
Goaltending
Colorado
Samat Beibitzhanov: 22-13-5, 2.83 GAA, 0.892 SP%
Jerry Huuveri: 5-3-2, 2.71 GAA, 0.863 SP%
St. Louis
Elizabeth Doyle: 23-13-4, 2.84 GAA, 0.888 SP%
Jason Voorhees: 3-6-1, 3.54 GAA, 0.881 SP%
Curiously, both starting goalies in this series have essentially the exact same stats, so goaltending is essentially a tossup. Beibitzhanov should have the edge, if only because of Colorado's suffocating defensive structure. Jerry Huuveri has the decided edge over Jason Voorhees if either team ever needs to go to their backups, but with the starters as good as they are it likely won't be an issue.
Prediction
St. Louis in 7. As good as Colorado is defensively, you still need to score goals to win hockey games, and it's just not clear if the Raptors have the offensive firepower needed to solve Elizabeth Doyle. St. Louis has the depth on offense to break through eventually. It will still be a heck of a series.
#4 Anaheim (27-17-6) vs #5 Vancouver (24-16-10) 
Offense
Anaheim
Goals For: 156 (7th)
Shots For: 1406 (4th)
Power Play: 27.91% (1st)
Vancouver
Goals For: 146 (10th)
Shots For: 1165 (10th)
Power Play: 22.41% (6th)
Anaheim has been a middling offensive team, but boasts a lethal power play. Kevin Robinson leads the charge on offense with 48 points, with half of those coming from the man advantage. Ivan Maximus provides a nice one-two punch with 46 points as well. The forward depth is also fairly consistent as well. The issue comes from the back end; while Alex Petrenko and Nicholas Owens are useful on offense, the other four defensemen on the Outlaws are good at setting up plays with 43 assists between the four, but they can't finish, having only three goals between them. Vancouver is additionally the fourth most-disciplined team in the SMJHL, being shorthanded only 171 times, which should put a dent in that Outlaws power play.
Looking at the Whalers, it's obvious to see what their main issue is: this team cannot score. The power play was a decent 6th in the league, but they had the fourth-fwwest chances and Vancouver put up the least shots and goals of any team. The team does have some solid offensive pieces, with Francois Breton, Marcus Ohlsson and Stracimir Petrovic impressing. The top four defensemen also chip in a lot, with all of them having more than 25 points. However, the depth drops off fast. The third line with Nicholas Corrigan and The stingray that Killed steve irwin has been effective, with those two having 23 points each, but the fourth line has been an offensive black hole and Jacob Rizzo hasn't produced on the top line. If this team can't get the offense going, they're headed for a quick exit.
Defense
Anaheim
Goals Against: 159 (6th)
Shots Against: 1328 (5th)
Penalty Kill: 78.02% (5th)
Vancouver
Goals Against: 147 (1st)
Shots Against: 1401 (8th)
Penalty Kill: 80.12% (1st)
The Outlaws are a middle-of-the-pack defensive team. Nicholas Owens is a physical force, with 96 hits, and the top four defensemen have all played over 1000 minutes, showing that they're able to be pretty well trusted. The issue is that the pairing of Ursin Zimmermann and Owens has been somewhat of a liability defensively at -20 and -18 respectively. The all-rookie fourth line hasn't worked out defensively either, with Ziggy Tambo the best of the trio at -20. Finally, Owens leads the team in penalty minutes at 54, and the Whalers' surprisingly effective power play might be able to get something going against an average penalty kill.
Vancouver's defensive statistics immediately show the signs of a team that is massively overperforming. Despite a top-four of Zlatan Ibrahimovic Jr., Mikas Bieksa, Sabo Tage and Sven Yxskaft and allowing the fewest goals in the league, the Whalers gave up 1400 shots, indicating the signs of a hot goalie. Vancouver has a strong and disciplined penalty kill, but one has to wonder if this defense is due for regression. In addition, the third pairing is extremely raw and can't be trusted with heavy minutes, although unheralded third-pairing defenseman Tiberius Maximus did lead the team in shot blocks with 70.
Goaltending
Anaheim
Strom Chamberlain: 18-12-5, 3.04 GAA, 0.883 SP%
Separa Borro: 9-5-1, 3.08 GAA, 0.883 SP%
Vancouver:
White Goodman: 23-12-9, 2.58 GAA, 0.905 SP%
Joe Simpson: 1-4-1, 3.61 GAA, 0.872 SP%
Remember how the Whalers allowed the third-most shots in the league but allowed the fewest goals? Here's your answer why. White Goodman is playing out of his mind for the Whalers, having the best save percentage and goals-against average in the SMJHL by a comfortable margin. The result of this series depends on if he can keep it up. Chamberlain has been average for the Outlaws.
Prediction
It all comes down to how Goodman plays, but I'll say Vancouver in 7. Despite massive overperformance from the Whalers' defense, the Outlaws aren't a particularly threatening offensive team outside of the power play, and the Whalers play a disciplined style. If the offense can do enough to win games and take pressure off their defense, Vancouver will be moving on.
RE: [RBM2] Breaking down the playoff matchups we know so far - mxman991 - 02-23-2020
Great work, made me sad though. Haha
RE: [RBM2] Breaking down the playoff matchups we know so far - hhh81 - 02-23-2020
Nice analysis, but it's missing one thing: the head-to-head from the season. Colorado went 3-1-1 against STL this year, putting up a blistering 4.6 goals per game . Even if you take out the 9-1 rout, we still put up 3.5 goals per game, well above our season average.
#DinoGang
RE: [RBM2] Breaking down the playoff matchups we know so far - roastpuff - 02-24-2020
Great read, can't wait to see who the
will face and your take on it.