SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning

SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - Printable Version

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SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - juke - 02-26-2020

(Ready for grading 3342 words)

Hey guys, I’m back with more stat breakdowns of the SMJHL playoffs, this time for the round 2 match ups. If you didn’t follow the round 1 post, I would recommend reading up on quickly on the first section that explains what the graphs mean, just so they make sense in this post. To very briefly explain what the point of this post is, it’s using team statistics from the regular season (and eventually playoff data as well), to predict the statistics of each team winning any given game in their match up, and thus the percent chance that each team can win their series in total. This is not a post breaking down team analyses or team styles, and how they may match up against each other. Nor is it my actual prediction on who will win. This is purely a from a numbers point of view, and reporting what the statistics/chance of each team winning, with no individual perspective or opinion, again just purely what the numbers say.

I also decided to do something slightly different for round 2 and moving forward: I’m putting all of the individual game scoring probabilities for all the match ups in google drive links. I don’t want this page cluttered with the home and away stats for 8 different teams, because I instead want to leave it as a blank canvass to analyze each series game by game, and how the numbers change over time. Since the scoring probability graphs themselves don’t actually change with each sim, there’s no reason to put them here. Instead, all the graphs shown in this page will be dynamic, in that I will edit them and they will change accordingly for each simulated game. So for each match up here in round 2, I will be providing a link where you can go to check the actual scoring probability graphs and breakdowns if you want, but I will summarize it all here in text anyways.

The last changes from round 1 breakdowns are as follows: The bar graphs in this post describing each match up will be using regular season stats for the very first game, but starting after game 1 of each series, they will then be updated with the actual series stats as each game is simmed. And also, keep in mind that the bar graphs represent how good at each category the two teams are relative to each other only, not the league. For example in game 1 if Team A has 20 shots on goal, and team B has 40, the bar graphs will be updated to say team A has .333 shots and team B has .666, since the team B has twice as much, and 66% of the total shots in the series. And again, this bar graph will change with every sim.

Lastly, I plan to add a 3rd dynamic plot here along with the series winning chance and match up bar graphs. I don’t have them made yet, but I’m leaving this as a placeholder in case I can get my shit together in time to code for it, but even if I do, the plot won’t be possible until at least 1 game is played anyways. Now, on to the match ups.

Link to the expected scoring graphs: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kQf1-WldS0_nAXVTltAD0LyM9l64x8cH/view?usp=sharing

St. Louis Scarecrows vs. Colorado Raptors Raptors

This series is another one that gives me hope that I didn’t waste my time by coding out separate outcomes depending on which team is home – there’s actually a relatively substantial difference. When the game is in Colorado, the expected goals scored are 4.49 to 2.91 for the Raptors, and they have a 62.7% chance of winning any given home game. Compare that to when the game is in St. Louis, and now the Scarecrows now have the advantage at a 59.5% chance of winning, with the expected scoring values at 2.73 to 2.62 Scarecrows. A much closer game than in Colorado, but teams really do have varying statistics for home vs. away. At the start of the series, Raptors have a 57.1% chance of taking home a win. They have the distinct advantage, but it’s not a big one. Looking forward to this match up.

After game 1: Colorado got on the win column first, increasing their series odds to 69.8%. Colorado outshot the Scarecrows by a decent margin, and it would've been ever bigger if not for the blocked shots differential. St. Louis really needs to do a better job staying out of the box moving forward in this series. As a note, since St. Louis didn't actually get a powerplay opportunity (AKA an 'NA' powerplay%), and the bar graph is team stats relative to each other, the special teams graphs will be NA, until St. Louis gets an opportunity

After game 2: Dino gang is really showing up this series. Dominating the scoresheet, as well as general shots on net and powerplay as well. During the pregame analysis I said that the Scarecrows have the statistical advantage at home, and they really need to prove that and win he next two games in St. Louis. The good news for them is they have the best series odds of all the 0-2 teams (17.3%), but I'm sure that doesn't feel too comforting at the moment.
28.2

After game 3: St. Louis got their much needed game 3 win at home where they're statistically favorites, and they played great doing so. They could've won by a substantial margin, mustering up twice as many shots as the Raptors. They've now fought their way back into the series with a 28.2% chance of a win, and that number will go back to right around 50% if they can take game 4 at home as well. This series may in fact be incredibly close, as it seems the scarecrows overall are getting more shots on net, but Colorado is getting better goaltending and special teams for the series lead thus far.

After game 4: Both teams swept their home games, and we're back to an even series. Colorado has a 58.3% chance of still getting the win, and the series is up for grabs. St. Louis' powerplay may start to become a concern for them moving forward. They're slightly winning the shot battles, but disproportionately getting out scored regardless. Whether Colorado is just getting much better goaltending, or capitalizing more on the powerplay I'm not sure, but if their defense and goalie can get a hot streak going this series could easily turn towards the Scarecrows.

After game 5: What an amazing turnaround by the Scarecrows. After game two when they went down 2-0, looking at my notes I said they were getting dominating on the shot chances and powerplays. And look at the breakdown now, the series is now almost dead even in those categories. I added shooting and save percentage into the bar graph breakdowns, an it shows that St. Louis has the 3-2 series lead now despite getting worse goaltending. St. Louis has skyrocketed up to a 74.5% chance of winning the series, and look to do it in game 6 on their home ice, where this great comeback all started.

After game 6: St. Louis pulled off 4 straight wins, and capped off the series victory. Unfortunately, I couldn't get the to team stats before the losing teams got taken off the team playoff stats website, so I can't scrape the final series data. Congrats to St. Louis on the great comeback and underdog victory against the higher seeded, and the 42.9% chance of winning.

Whalers

Vancouver Whalers vs. Anaheim Outlaws Outlaws

Upset alert? Could be likely. Or did I mess up my coding somehow? Incredibly likely. Either way, the #5 seed Whalers are favored in both game locations, which is a shock to me because I’ve been big on the Outlaws this year. And the team comparisons say the Outlaws have a much better offense and powerplay. But Vancouver does have a suppressive defense and the best goaltending in the league, so who knows. Regardless, the Vancouver favoritism is minimal. In Anaheim, the Whalers have a 52.8% chance of a win, with an expected score of 3.04 to 2.78. At home, the Whalers have a 51.5% chance of winning, with an expected score of 2.47 to 2.46. Couldn’t be any closer. This series has the potential to feature some incredibly close games, and go the full distance of 7 games. Final series odds have the Whalers with the slight edge at 54.9%. Tune in to this one.

After game 1: Maybe the upset alert from the pre-game stats was partially on point. With the game 1 win, Vancouver now has a decently shocking 72.1% chance of winning. The game breakdown looked like a pretty decent game, with Vancouver playing more physical, and getting better goaltending.

After game 2: This is probably the series to watch at the moment. It's crazy to see how well these two teams are matching up against each other, and now the series is tied to prove it, as well as most of the head to head stats. Vancouver still has the ever-so-slightest edge in series chances at around 53%, likely due to goaltending and they're still dominating the physical game, but I'm so ready for this series to go 7.

After game 3: Anaheim took game 3, and now have a 2-1 series lead with a 65.5% chance of bringing it home. They're starting to pull away statistically too, gaining a sizable advantage in the team corsi, but with Goodman in net for Vancouver, they're going to want to make sure to keep that up. Anaheim may want to start staying out of the box a little more, but the Whalers aren't punishing them for penalties at all, going an insanely cold 0/13 with the man advantage so far.

After game 4: Anaheim is starting to run away with this one. Not only do they have the 3-1 series lead, they're massively outscoring and outshooting the Whalers, and Vancouver's powerplay is still yet to score. Not to mention that Anaheim's powerplay is on fire as well. The Outlaws go into game 5 with an 85.6% chance of winning the series.

After game 5: The Whalers cling on for another game, and the Outlaws missed an amazing chance to put the series away in overtime in front of their home crowd. This game featured two goalies playing their hearts out. Goodman edged out Chamberlain slightly, and stopped all 7 shots against in OT to give Vancouver the opportunity to send it back home for game 6. This series is now evening up in terms of the match up too, both goalies have equal save percentages, the shot totals look pretty similar, but Vancouver really needs to click on the powerplay if they want to pretend that they can finish the comeback. I think it's time for the coach to switch the strategy up, because 0 for 22 isn't going to get you to the cup finals. Anaheim will look to win one more game to fulfill their now 72.8% chance of a series win.

After game 6: Anaheim solidified their win in the series where they were the better team. Not going to win a playoff series where you go absolutely abysmal on the powerplay, especially against a strong, favorited Anaheim team.

Knights

Kelowna Knights vs. Carolina Kraken Kraken

I’m just gonna come out and say it before I get to the results, I wouldn’t really read into the analysis on this one. I do think Kelowna is a dark horse team to make a run, but the results of these stats favor them to an amount that makes me question where I went wrong in the analysis for this match up. Because Carolina has been in the top 2 for almost all year, in fact tied for the 1 spot. And the match up breakdown doesn’t seem to favor the Knights, although I think a lot of the stats are closer than people would’ve realized. The teams are almost dead even in scoring and shots, while Carolina has slightly better special teams. But some reason, the results really favored the Knights. Games in Carolina have a 56.5% chance of a Kelowna win, and game in Kelowna have a 60.9% chance of a Kelowna win. The expected goals in both of those games are 3.62 to 2.60, and 3.74 to 2.59 for the Knights and Kraken respectively. If these numbers were actually true, which there’s no chance they are, it would mean the Knights have a 67.9% chance of winning the series. Like I said, I don’t buy it, the Kraken competed for the best team all year. So on this one, I would ignore this entire write-up, and just tune in to what should be a competitive series between two good teams. Carolina pls don't hate me.

After game 1: Maybe the upset alert wasn't so crazy after all? Kelowna won a great game 1, by putting slightly more shots on net and with a better special teams. The game looked really close though, with Kelowna just scraping out with a win, so their now 80.3% chance of winning the series is in my opinion incredibly inflated. But they're still showing the rest of the league they mean business. Carolina, I know these prediction numbers suck and are likely wrong, but if you do end up winning the series, you can just think of it as you guys overcoming remarkable odds, instead of just winning as the higher seed. So that's something.

After game 2: I was planning on coming into the post-game 2 thread with a few ideas trying to explain why the Knights were so favored in terms of the coding, but I decided to just throw them out the window because as of right now it doesn't appear anything is wrong with the code. The knights took a huge 2 game sweep in Carolina, and now head to Kelowna where they have an even bigger statistical advantage. And even looking at the breakdown, the Knights are firing way more shots on net than the Kraken, and that's even with the Kraken blocking a much higher rate of shots. Kelowna is playing more physical and staying out of the box more somehow, and they're sitting pretty with a 2-0 lead and an unfathomable 93.8% chance of winning the series. I won't lie, I'm still waiting for the 'any moment' time where Carolina starts turning it around and dominating, but already down 2-0, that time has to be next game.

After game 3: That was the Carolina we were all expecting. They came away with a close win in game 3, putting their chances of coming back and winning the series at 19.4%, but I do hope I can finally stop apologizing for the numbers seeming off on this regular season dominant #2 seed. I will say however, Kelowna still looks incredibly strong. They still have a better corsi than the Kraken, borderline even special teams, and a trade off between hits and blocked shots. I think, and really hope, this series will be incredibly close and I'm crossing my fingers for 7 games of this.

After game 4: I love this series. The Kraken have stormed back into the series, and we're tied at 2 games a piece. Kelowna still hasn't won lost single game on the road in the playoffs, so they're surely not bothered that Carolina has home ice again. More so than just the series being tied at 2, is the fact that all the head to head metrics are so close. This is by far the most evenly balanced match up in the entire second round, and neither team is dominating at any facet of the game. 3 more games of this will be amazing to follow along with.

After game 5: The most intriguing first round series takes it's newest turn. Just when it looked like the regular season juggernaut Carolina was back, Kelowna reminded us all that they only prefer to win on the road in the playoffs. Game 5 ended in overtime, in what could possibly be the biggest momentum swing of the playoffs so far, as you don't need me to tell you how big the difference between being up 3-2 vs. down 2-3 is. The Knights still seem to hold the slightest edge over the Kraken in most stats: more shots and goals, less shots and goals against, better special teams. But the Knights don't seem to want to win at home this post season, so their 83% chance of winning the series may just come down to a game 7 back in Carolina.

After game 6/7: Again, I wasn't able to make it on the site in time to scrape the data in between sims, but Carolina pulled off what they were expected to do, in the most exciting series of the round. It look 7 games, but a home team finally took home a win in this series, and it was the most important game to take home. I prefaced the inflated Kelowna stats almost every single update of this thread, but I think at least at this point no one would deny that he series was incredibly close, and Kelowna easily could have taken home the series win.

Newfoundland Berserkers vs. Detroit Falcons Falcons

Once again, home and away stats seemed to different a pretty decent amount in this one. Detroit is obviously the favorite, but this series could potentially be much closer than expected. Looking at the match up comparisons, Detroit has a slightly better offense, but a slightly worse defense. The Berserkers special teams are a little better, while Detroit overall plays a more physical game. Games in Detroit are actually favored for the Berserkers, with a 55.1% chance of a Newfoundland win, at an expected score of 4.05 to 3.67. Conversely, the Falcons have a huge statistical advantage in Newfoundland, with a 58.1% chance of winning, expected score ending with 3.56 to 2.97. This gives Detroit the slightest expected series win, at 51.2% chance.

After game 1: Well, the teams that the code predicted as favorites to win their series went 4-4 in game 1, so that's something for me at least. This game was relatively close, but Newfoundland needs to get massively improved goaltending and special teams if we want to come away with a win. Detroit now has a 66.6% chance of winning the series, which can only be bad luck for them. I get the sense that this series might come down to which team can get lucky in net, because both goalies struggled in this high scoring game 1.

After game 2: Sad Berserker noises. In a series where the away teams have a statistical advantage, it's tough to go down 2-0 in Detroit during the games we were more favored to win. The Falcons are really pouring the shots on Newfoundland's net, and really capitalizing on the special teams play. Their chances of winning have steadily shot up to 84.8% now, and Newfoundland has to take home a win in game 3. Morale in the locker room is still high, and despite the loss our goaltending had a decent bounce back game, so anything is possible and expect Newfoundland so fly out of the gates in game 3.

After game 3: There was a game 3? Hmm I don't think there was. In all seriousness it's hard to tell if the Falcons are playing extremely well, or if the Berserkers are just playing insanely poorly, but either way the Falcons are now the only undefeated team left in playoffs. The special teams for Newfoundland has been an absolute nightmare, and the Falcons have gone an absurd 57.1% on the powerplay. Things are looking great for Detroit with a 94.7% chance of winning the series, but they don't realize that they've so easily fallen into the Berserkers reverse sweep trap card. GG 'Serks in 7.

After game 4: gg nerds

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - Nhamlet - 02-26-2020

SMJHL stat guru

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - juke - 02-27-2020

Post-game 1 updated

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - sve7en - 02-27-2020

NoBodY bELieVeS iN Us

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - Blues - 02-27-2020

this is some dedication to the article, thanks for all of the updates and work you're putting in man!!!

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - Zoone16 - 02-27-2020

02-27-2020, 10:53 AMsve7en Wrote: NoBodY bELieVeS iN Us

I believe in you....getting eliminated this round. Knights

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - takethehorizon - 02-27-2020

02-27-2020, 12:23 PMZoone16 Wrote:
02-27-2020, 10:53 AMsve7en Wrote: NoBodY bELieVeS iN Us

I believe in you....getting eliminated this round.

[Image: giphy.gif?cid=790b7611ba3c5f6be46b3d588e...=giphy.gif]

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - Duff101 - 02-27-2020

Absolute banger of an article, this whole series is awesome!

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - juke - 02-27-2020

Thanks everyone! Post-game 2 updated

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - juke - 02-28-2020

Updated post game 3

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - roastpuff - 02-28-2020

Lol that post-game 4 update. Falcons

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - Nhamlet - 02-28-2020

Respect to the commitment.

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - Chevy - 02-28-2020

This is fantastic work! Keep up the great statistical commentary

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - juke - 02-29-2020

updaterino

RE: SMJHL playoffs round 2 by the numbers: Predicting each teams chance of winning - BDonini - 02-29-2020

feels bad man