+- Simulation Hockey League (https://simulationhockey.com)
+-- Forum: League Media (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=610)
+--- Forum: Deep Dive (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=432)
+---- Forum: Archives (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=547)
+---- Thread: (Graded)(Deep Dive #2) Berserkers Future and Draft Needs (/showthread.php?tid=109334)
(Graded)(Deep Dive #2) Berserkers Future and Draft Needs - budweiser - 08-19-2020
For my second deep dive, I wanted to analyze the Bersekers and determine potential draft needs and if the dominance could continue. My consensus, is we do not expect a significant decline in performance for SMJHL 56; however, they may struggle in S57 due to significant players reaching eligibility.
For draft needs, we first considered ineligibility and inactive issues. The Berserkers have no players meeting ineligibility next year; however, they have five players reaching final eligibility following next year (Four capped at 425- Harrington, Minamino, Kostitsyn, and Twist- and one 410 total TPE- Birdstrom). The Berserkers currently have two goalies inactive. One inactive is a S55 SHL third round draft pick (Guarda) who will return as a send-down. Matei is a third-year inactive goalie with only 177 TPE. With starter Cale Amundsen potentially graduating in a year, the Berserkers would be smart not too retain Steviaco as an emergency backup goalie and draft a developmental option.
SHL Draft Season Drafted Position Name TPE Used TPE Bank Total TPE Current Max TPE Active within Month
S54 G Matei Stevlaco 175 2 177 425 No
S55 R3(44) G Junior Guarda 225 22 247 350 No
Next we considered potential full-time SHL players next year. With a 600 TPE cutoff, we considered three players, Minamino, Harrington, and Klompus. LeGrande and Amundsen are right below the cut at 596 and 592, respectively.
SHL Draft Season Drafted Position Name TPE Used TPE Bank Total TPE Current Max TPE
S53 R1(3) LW Steve Harrington 425 419 844 425
S53 R1(11) RW Ryuuji Minamino 425 405 830 425
S54 R1(13) D Jack Klompus 425 193 618 425
First we looked at Minamino (830 TPE), a highly touted Syndicate prospects. After looking at the roster Minamin will make the Syndicate if Carter or Sawchuk (regression) retire or a forward is selected in the expansion draft and no other FAs signed. Based on current TPE, Sawchuck and Carter will regress to 1115 and 979, respectively, which remain above Minamino. We reviewed the other Syndicate prospects found the Berserkers are currently a strong Syndicate pipeline with accounting for five of nine prospects. The prospect closest to pushing Minamino is Scott, who only has 618 TPE.
Next we looked a Harrington, a premiere prospect (844 TPE) for the Stampede. Harrington is in an eerily similar position with Harrington relative to the current Stampede roster, except only one player is relevant in regression (Marius). If Harrington puts in a lot of work leading into next season, he could potentially replace Okabe who has 860 TPE. When considering bank accounts, Okabe only as $250K in the bank while Harrington has a strong bank account of $66M. When looking at prospects, Harrington’s primary challenger for the next roster spot is Seppala with 816 TPE and an equally as strong bank account ($68M).
Finally we reviewed Klompus, the Chiefs prospect. Klompus’ (618 TPE) way to the SHL is almost a guarantee next year. There are two defenseman with TPE below 500 and are currently inactive. Additionally, no defensemen prospects have TPE above 500.
After reviewing these three prospects, we do not expect them back with the Berserkers next year, which will open an additional two forward and one defenseman spot.
We expect all other players to re-sign or return to the Berserkers. The overall talent level will be slightly dilute; however, still remain strong. Of the returning players, only two will not have 425TPE caps and two players will gain 425 TPE caps with one having TPE above 425 already and the other just shy of 300.
Returning Needed Used TPE 420-425 Used TPE 350-400 Used TPE 225-270
Forwards 9 3 5 2 2
Defensemen 5 1 2 2 1
Goalies 2 1 1 1
In the 350-425 TPE group, Slate and Soupon have total TPE at or above 425 and could easily be in the 420-425 ground. Additionally, Birdstrom has total TPE of 410 with 396 used and could also join that top group. If these users build out their players, the Berserkers would have their top two forward lines of 425 TPE players along with half of their defense. This could continue a strong year in SMJHL S55; however, S56 could be a struggle. Three projected 425 TPE players will age out and several players could potentially be SHL regulars.
APPROVED +5 TPE @budweiser
RE: (Graded)(Deep Dive #2) Berserkers Future and Draft Needs - JNH - 08-26-2020
Good read
Well researched and somewhat close (though a relevant consideration is that after 3 send down seasons, players must pass through waivers so Harrington and Minamino are guaranteed call ups). @budweiser