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[SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - Zoone16 - 09-30-2020
Quote:3750 words - Ready For Grading - Split between Zoone16 & Tomen
![[Image: SFpUtlh.png]](https://i.imgur.com/SFpUtlh.png)
Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46)
Have you ever wondered if going first overall is a sign that the player will be the highest TPE earner of his class? But what about the average TPE attained for 2nd overall? Or the median TPE for 3rd? What about all the other draft positions? And why am I asking so many questions?
With the help of @Tomen, we have scoured the update pages, and off-season regression threads of every player drafted between S30 and S46 and found their peak TPE attained before regression, slapped it into a table, and done those very calculations for you. In this article, we’ll cover peak TPE attained for each draft spot between 1OA and 30OA.
Now you may ask, why limit ourselves to S30-S46? Well the further back you go, the harder it is to find some of this data. Whilst I’m sure that some of the average and median values.
DISCLAIMER: I’m sure someone will come and correct some value with this article, saying something about their TPE not being correct. Sorry about that. We’re only human and collecting data manually is tedious. Some mistakes might have occurred.
1OA – Guarantee of Success?
Peak TPE: 2151 in S35 – Robert Phelps Lowest TPE: 797 in S33 - Veli Kaalinpää
Average TPE: 1417 Median TPE: 1442
First overall, the position that everyone wishes to be drafted at, where a shot at being a major franchise player early on in a career is almost guaranteed. Well… almost. Over the past 17 seasons, only half of these gave us a player that hit more that 1500 TPE. In fact, only two players drafted first overall have gone above the 2000 TPE mark (Pietra Volkova & Robert Phelps), although a couple have gotten quite close (Leopold Lockhart).
On the lower end of the scale, we find Veli Kaalinpää (S33) only reaching a peak of 797 TPE for the lowest TPE attained by a first overall pick in the 17 seasons analyzed. In fact, six players drafted 1OA failed to reach 1000 TPE which represents almost 40% of all players drafted there. One notable bust was Leshaun King in S43, who had a promising start to his career before falling flat and calling it quits at 958 TPE.
2OA – The Other Pick
Peak TPE: 2255 in S44 – Ola Wagstrom Lowest TPE: 489 in S43 – Oliver Kovacs
Average TPE: 1375 Median TPE: 1439
At second overall, we find very little variance compared to first overall when it comes to the median TPE attained. The average TPE however is slightly lower, resulting in lower lows for the position compared to 1OA. In total, seven players that were drafted second in their draft class reached the 1500 TPE mark, with two of them breaking the 2000 TPE mark (in consecutive seasons nonetheless). Ola Wagstrom leads the way with an astounding 2255 TPE earned prior to regression, one of the highest ever totals in SHL history. Not far behind him we see Andreas Kvalheim, who reached a peak of 2150 before regression.
Looking at the second overall busts, we cannot ignore the lowest TPE in Oliver Kovacs (S43) as well as Eddie Andrezjeck (S34) who was only 2 TPE better than Kovacs. Ignoring the two forfeited picks (S33 & S39) only 3 players in the timeframe failed to reach 1000 TPE. Significantly better than first overall, although the forfeited picks could’ve gone either way. We’ll never know.
3OA – Motivational Overload?
Peak TPE: 2143 in S43 – Luke Thomason Lowest TPE: 367 in S44 – Tauras Karazija
Average TPE: 1476 Median TPE: 1570
Whereas you might’ve thought that the values would slowly descend as we move down draft picks, third overall comes and puts everyone to shame. Perhaps due to being passed over twice or something, but there is something special being drafted third. The highest average & median value all draft positions included is right here. Sure, it has the same amount of 2000 TPE players as the previous draft spots with Luke Thomason & Oisin Fletcher leading the way, but it also has a total of 11 players hitting 1500 TPE.
On the downside, we have Tauras Karazija who maxed out at a meager 367 TPE, with S39 pick Karno Grönkjær not far ahead at 552 TPE. Only 3 players in this class failed to reach 1000 TPE, which combined with the number of players making it past 1500 TPE makes this the most successful draft spot to be drafted at. Future 3rd overall picks beware, you have a lot to live up to.
4OA –The Oft Forgotten
Peak TPE: 2207 in S35 – Mike Izzy Lowest TPE: 332 in S37 – Shaun Stephens
Average TPE: 1414 Median TPE: 1387
Interestingly, the fourth overall is the first draft spot where the median is lower than the average, showing that a large number of players drafted there were solid earners. Six players were able to go beyond 1500 TPE with an astonishing five of those smashing the 2000 TPE bar with ease. Leading the way, Mike Izzy (S35) reached a formidable 2207 TPE, with Tigole Bitties (S36) and Monkey D. Luffy (S46) reaching 2182.
On the other end of the spectrum and beyond two forfeited picks (S30 & S41), S37 was the worst 4th overall pick in the 17 seasons sample, where Shaun Stephens peaked at a measly 332 TPE which is basically saying right at the draft. Other weak picks were Bernard Freeman (S44), Tommy Salami (S33) and Luuk Kraaijkamp (S40), the only four picks not to make it past 1000 TPE. Interestingly, Tommy Salami would have a better career with his next player, Tony Pepperoni.
5OA –Surprise!
Peak TPE: 2058 in S46 – Mathias Seger Lowest TPE: 376 in S30 – Blake Battle
Average TPE: 1394 Median TPE: 1566
To be in the top 5 is a pretty good feat in the SHL Entry Draft. More often than not, fifth overall is still a solid indicator of success in the SHL, as shown by the median TPE. With 9 of 17 players making it past 1500 TPE, fifth overall is on paper, just as good as third overall when it comes to making an impact player. Interestingly, only one player has made it past the 2000 TPE with Mathias Seger (S46) achieving the feat this past off-season by reaching 2058 TPE before regression. After him, the bar drops to 1856 TPE with Zach Evans (S31) and 1819 TPE with Dominic Montgomery (S45).
The average drops a lot more with less players hitting those high TPE numbers, and with four players not reaching the 1000 TPE mark, it does bring the average TPE down. In fact, 5OA is the draft spot with largest absolute deviance in the Top 15 draft spots. A sign that what you draft can be equally good or a total disaster, such as the 376 TPE attained by Blake Battle (S30) and the 673 TPE by Shaquille Derisraka (S44).
6OA – Things Get Crazy
Peak TPE: 2134 in S46 – Jimmy Slothface Lowest TPE: 522 in S45 – Nicolas Fleming
Average TPE: 1220 Median TPE: 1164
Things start to go all over the place starting at sixth overall as the median value shows. This is the point where GMs who have done their homework and those who have not will begin to show. There are exactly four players drafted at this position that made it above 1500 TPE, in fact above 1900 TPE. With three of them getting past the 2000 TPE mark. Leading the way with 2134 is Jimmy Slothface (S46), with Lil' Manius (S43) at 2074 TPE and Mikhail Lokitonov (S39) at 2018 TPE.
When it comes to misses, 6OA has its fair share of players, with seven players not cracking the 1000 TPE mark. Leading the way in busts we have Nicolas Fleming (S45) at 522 TPE who burnt out in the league with his recreate. Alongside him we have Taro Tsujimoto (S32) at 538 TPE and Eriks Skalbergs (S42) at 610 TPE. As the depth of scouting increases for every team, it is always fun see at what point the draft goes all over the place.
7OA – Odds Have More Fun
Peak TPE: 2004 in S37 – Tor Tuck Lowest TPE: 311 in S32 – Kristy O'Sullivan
Average TPE: 1146 Median TPE: 1273
If you haven’t got the hint from the title of this section, players drafted at odd numbers tend to have a higher median TPE achieved compared to their even counterparts. Don’t believe me? Look at the data. Seventh overall gave us five players going above 1500 TPE, but only one making it above 2000 with Tor Tuck (S37). This is paired with only four players failing to make it past 1000 TPE. Kristy O’Sullivan (S32) is undoubtedly the worst pick in the Top 10 when it comes to peak TPE attained versus their position drafted. Not much better than her we have Sachimo Zoidberg Jr (S42) at 426 TPE and Lochlann O'Rourke (S33) at 495 TPE.
It is good to know that there are a good number of players here that make it between 1000 TPE and 1500 TPE which makes it a solid 2nd and 3rd line player getting draft spot.
8OA – Hidden Goat
Peak TPE: 2285 in S31 – Jason Visser Lowest TPE: 361 in S41 – Daniel Danill
Average TPE: 1187 Median TPE: 1183
Eighth overall and things take another little dip compared to the position above but for the first time, the deviation between average and median TPE is under 10. On the upper end, we have five players that made it past 1500 TPE with two of these going beyond 2000 TPE. One of these is the current all-time TPE record holder, Jason Visser (S31) at 2285 TPE. Alongside him is Maxime Bouchard (S45) who reached 2038 TPE before regression. How players like this fell so late is a bit of a mystery but in Visser’s defence, the S31 draft was particularly stacked at the time. As for Bouchard, other than 6 & 7oa, the case can be made about whether or not he could’ve gone much higher at the time of the draft.
On the bust side of things, we have Daniel Danill (S41) who peaked at 361 TPE before disappearing on us right after the draft. Scotty Steele (S35) at 405 TPE and Vratislav Zybnek (S34) at 592 TPE were also some of the six disappointments that came at this pick.
9OA – 2K What?
Peak TPE: 1951 in S32 – Terrance Nova Lowest TPE: 337 in S37 – Xavier LaFlamme
Average TPE: 1045 Median TPE: 1199
Another fun fact for you guys. Ninth overall is the only spot in the top 16 to have never had a 2000+ TPE player. There are in fact only three players above 1500 TPE with Terrance Nova (S32) clearly ahead of the rest at 1951 TPE before regression. In that aspect, this makes 9OA the weakest Top 10 draft spot in these 17 seasons analyzed.
Plenty of bust picks are present at this spot so we’ll do this really quick by highlighting Xavier LaFlamme (S37) who burnt out real fast at 337 TPE. Marginally better than him were Roddy Hawkins (S34) and Kiko Rytmeyr (S43) peaking at 349 and 380 TPE respectively. It’ll be interesting to see if the next few seasons will rectify or improve the fate of the 9OA but until then, this is our ‘cursed spot’ based on the data above.
10OA – A Whole Lotta Everything
Peak TPE: 2166 in S31 – Ludwig Koch Schröder Lowest TPE: 311 in S34 – Hermanis Villy
Average TPE: 1114 Median TPE: 1071
With five players above 1500 TPE, tenth overall sticks to the norm of the ‘Next 5’ of having impact players in the single digits. With peaks at 2166 by LKS (S31) and 2114 by Rex Kirkby (S43) carrying the average of 10OA upwards of the norm, it is a draft spot where more busts and 3rd line players are found compared to the ones above. In fact, eight players drafted tenth in their draft class failed to make it to 1000 TPE, with Hermanis Villy (S34) being the second to worst top 10 pick of the 17 seasons analyzed, after O’Sullivan at 7OA. Villy made it to 311 TPE before calling it quits. S45 10OA pick, Konstantin Voloshin was only marginally better with 374 TPE accrued before disappearing into nothingness.
11OA – The Better Double Digit
Peak TPE: 2183 in S46 –Nick Brain Lowest TPE: 322 in S32 – Matthew Rossi
Average TPE: 1149 Median TPE: 1217
What’s better than one 1. Two ones of course. Eleventh overall shows us that odds are still the better digit to be drafted at. This position is notably the last draft spot with a median TPE above 1000. Once again, there are five 1500+ TPE players, with Nick Brain (S46) the sole player to make it past 2000 TPE.
With seven players failing to reach 1000 TPE, we turn to Matthew Rossi (S32) as the worst 11OA capping at 322 TPE. Notfar ahead of him we find Matiss Kokins (S37) and Lukas Muller (S36) at 334 & 401 TPE respectively.
From this point on, 700 TPE will be the mark where we judge a bust as a significant number of players will have failed to reach this point past this draft spot.
12OA – The Dive Begins
Peak TPE: 2099 in S31 – Joe Kurczewski Lowest TPE: 356 in S43 – Pierre Laroche-Durocher
Average TPE: 1027 Median TPE: 884
As the title of this suggest, finding good picks from this point on begins to be a lot more difficult. In fact, more often than not, high TPE peaks at this point are either steals, or in Joe Kurczewski’s case, a byproduct of an incredibly deep draft. Gary Grease (S39) is the other player drafted twelfth overall that went above 2000 TPE and only two others managed to get above 1500 TPE. This means that this far in the draft, you have a 23% chance of drafting a premium player.
Another notable data point here, is that we’re finally under 1000 TPE for median TPE and almost there for average TPE. In terms of busts we’ve got Pierre Laroche-Durocher (S43) who had a solid junior career but could not quite make it to the SHL, peaking at 356 TPE. Alongside him, we have Franz Cooper (S44) at 369 TPE and Michael Walker (S33) at 383 TPE. A total of five players failed to make 500 TPE at this position.
13OA – A Final Surprise?
Peak TPE: 2043 in S31 – Alexis Metzler Lowest TPE: 289 in S32 – Jean Girard
Average TPE: 1003 Median TPE: 998
The last season we’ll analyze that has an average TPE above 1000. Surprisingly, the difference between the median and average is very small. At the peak we find one of the best defensemen of all-time in the SHL, Alexis Metzler (S31) who peaked at 2043 TPE. Slip McScruff (S45) comes right behind at 2018 TPE as the only two players above 2000 TPE. Ben Dover (S30) is the only other player making it above 1500 TPE, peaking at 1838 TPE. This makes the success rate at 13OA, just shy of 18%.
There are plenty of busts here, with seven (41%) players failing to reach 700 TPE. Most notable is Jean Girard (S32) who couldn’t make it past 289 TPE before disappearing. Other notable busts are Harper Wright (S33) at 362 TPE and Christian Petersen (S37) at 338 TPE.
14OA
Peak TPE: 2069 in S46 – Matt Kholin Lowest TPE: 245 in S37 – Zemgus Nylander
Average TPE: 796 Median TPE: 625
Sometimes a draft is so deep that you cannot go wrong with who you pick. That is certainly the case for Matt Kholin who leads 14OA picks handily in what is simply an insane S46 class. Kholin is joined by Kata Vilde (S41) & Nicky Pedersen Jr. (S43) as the only players going past 1500 TPE at 1751 TPE & 1618 TPE respectively.
If you haven’t noticed yet, the Median TPE at fourteenth overall is at 625 TPE. More than half the players picked here in the 17 seasons analyzed have been busts, with nine failing to hit that mark. S37 pick Zemgus Nylander’s career was pretty much over by the time he was drafted, never going past 245 TPE.
15OA
Peak TPE: 2134 in S46 – Guy Zheng Lowest TPE: 225 in S37 – Johnny Yuma
Average TPE: 989 Median TPE: 935
Things get a bit brighter at fifteenth overall, with both median & average TPE surging up compared to the previous pick. Guy Zheng (S46 yet again) leads the way with a massive 2134 TPE earned. He is joined by recent retiree, Viktor Marius (S39) in the 2000+ TPE club, reaching 2039 prior to regression. In total three players made it past 1500 TPE and an additional five cleared the 1000 TPE.
As usual, the good comes with the bad and the ugly. The ugly is that we have a forfeited pick in S35 which doesn’t help either way. The bad comes in the shape of Johnny Yuma (S37), who was pretty much dead on arrival. S44 pick, Jerry Larry didn’t fare much better at 327 TPE, as S30 pick, Frontdoor McGraw, who peaked at a slightly better 355 TPE.
16OA
Peak TPE: 2098 in S46 – Brennan Kennedy Jr. Lowest TPE: 271 in S37 – Barbie Tanner
Average TPE: 926 Median TPE: 688
Back at 9OA I said that the Top 16 all had at least one player above 2000 TPE except for 9OA. The final player in that series is S46 pick Brennan Kennedy Jr, who leads his draft position at 2098 TPE. A further three players made it above 1500 TPE, all peaking in the mid 1800 TPE in fact, this are, Conklin Owen (S30), DeMaricus Smyth (S39), Barret McCarthy (S44). A further three players would make it past 1000 TPE.
The only two busts I’ll bring up at 16OA is Barbie Tanner (S37) who could not live up to his brothers’ talent, maxing out at 271 TPE. The other one is S34 pick Rambo who at 293 TPE, decided that running into the jungle with many guns was a much more worthwhile venture.
17OA
Peak TPE: 1181 in S44 – Brock Nuck Lowest TPE: 262 in S37 – Anze Barbashev
Average TPE: 617 Median TPE: 553
Ok guys, I have a confession. When I saw the data that Tomen sent me, this spot struck out to me as a sore spot. Just to give you an idea, to find the next draft spot with a lower peak tpe we have to go all the way down to 35OA. That’s how bad/cursed this spot is. With a total of three players making it above 1000 TPE, we have Brock Nuck (S44) leading the way with a grand total of 1181 TPE earned before regression.
There are too many busts to name at this point but I would like to point out the lowest one of them all, Anze Barbashev (S37) who just could not make it to the SHL and retired shortly after being drafted.
18OA
Peak TPE: 1660 in S31 – Toivo Kosonen Lowest TPE: 201 in S32 – Ernesto Castro
Average TPE: 573 Median TPE: 381
A tale of two drafts. S31 was undoubtedly deep, with many hits late in the proceedings as is shown by Toivo Kosonen who reached 1660 TPE at his peak. Alongside him is S39 pick, Liam O'Callaghan who reached 1558 TPE.
Whilst S31 was deep. S32 was remarkably shallow as can be seen by the Riot’s selection of Cuban president Ernesto Castro who, upon learning where he was drafted, decided that ruling a small island was a much better career decision.
19OA
Peak TPE: 2104 in S46 – Bobby Sharp Lowest TPE: 196 in S32 – Radisk Rodders
Average TPE: 732 Median TPE: 614
Four players make up the list of players reaching 1000 TPE or more here and one of them sticks out head, shoulders, chest, and knees above the rest. Bobby Sharp (S46) made it all the way to a massive 2104 TPE before regression. The next best being S42 pick Cameron Carter III at 1501 TPE earned. Radisk Rodders (S32) is the lowest TPE picked in the Top 20, at 196 TPE. When GMs check for anything that has a pulse before drafting, one of them might’ve tried checking too hard.
20OA
Peak TPE: 1683 in S45 –Nat Emerson Lowest TPE: 230 in S32 – Victor Nerokov
Average TPE: 697 Median TPE: 473
The last draft spot I’ll present in this format (the rest will be on the attached google doc) is twentieth overall. Led by Nat Emerson (S45) at 1683 TPE, Geronimo Otto (S31) at 1664 and Michael Fox (S46) at 1663 TPE, 20OA has produced some top line talent in the SHL. A further two players made it past 1000 TPE making this point in the draft another turning point, as not many more draft spots have this many players making it past four digit TPE gains.
On a funnier note for the older players/users of the site. Our good friend Victor Nerokov (a.k.a Nero) takes the lowest TPE by a 20OA pick, reaching 230 TPE before rage-quitting the site.
I could go on for all the positions but after this point, the data starts going weird with skipped picks and GM picks skewing late draft positions.
Fun Facts
Whilst researching for this and analyzing the data, we found some fun and unusual tidbits we wanted to group up at the end of the article:
- Best draft position is actually 3OA in average TPE gained.
- Odd draft positions tend to be better than even draft position before them (3 does better than 2, 5 does better than 4, etc...)
- 4OA leads the way in most 2000+ TPE players created at 4.
- 2OA & 7OA share the most amount of times a Top 10 pick was forfeited.
- The lowest non-GM 2000 TPE player was in S46 with 37OA pick, Dick Clapper.
- Including GMs, the lowest 2000 TPE player was also in S46 with Karlstrasse Scholz going 112th.
- At least 1 player has hit 2k+ TPE for every draft position in the Top 16.... except at 9OA.
- The lowest non-GM pick that broke the 1k TPE mark was in S46 with 68OA Jules Watt
- The lowest TPE drafted was 155 TPE (multiple times).
- Stuart Minkus (S33) was the lowest TPE a GM was drafted with (203 TPE)
RE: Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - Chevy - 09-30-2020
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - Symmetrik - 09-30-2020
damn I was the best 11th overall until Brain
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - Zoone16 - 09-30-2020
09-30-2020, 05:40 PMSymmetrik Wrote: damn I was the best 11th overall until Brain
Yeah. The S46 class changed a lot of the data.
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - SlashACM - 09-30-2020
Best pick after 40 in shl history :stronk:
(Non gm of course)
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - karlssens - 09-30-2020
Biggest steal, thank you
Awesome article though. I missed the goofy names after pick 14.
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - FuzzSHL - 09-30-2020
So close to being the top, pepesad
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - slothfacekilla - 09-30-2020
Well that is pretty cool!
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - DeletedAtUserRequest - 09-30-2020
![[Image: Ei4fmQhXcAAU_oe.jpg%3Alarge]](https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/6hGZvBqFS6XeM6Sy_anWByj8XH-hgV1vhMEnUdX5YBw/https/pbs.twimg.com/media/Ei4fmQhXcAAU_oe.jpg%3Alarge)
#retired-Izzy trending after the news that his 2207 is the king of the 4OA....
Great post @Zoone16 ! .. love it
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - .bojo - 09-30-2020
09-30-2020, 05:20 PMZoone16 Wrote: the data starts going weird with skipped picks and GM picks skewing late draft positions.
![[Image: tenor.gif?itemid=4916860]](https://media1.tenor.com/images/665af1ab5969a35cac8d41c5fa735187/tenor.gif?itemid=4916860)
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - Weretarantula - 09-30-2020
Great read @Zoone16 , thanks for the shoutout!
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - Zoone16 - 09-30-2020
09-30-2020, 06:43 PMWeretarantula Wrote: Great read @Zoone16 , thanks for the shoutout!
Thanks! I've been in the mood to write an article or two lately.
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - goldenglutes - 09-30-2020
09-30-2020, 06:05 PMslothfacekilla Wrote: Well that is pretty cool!
peak TPE twins (let's ignore the fact that I forgot to claim team training camp until last week)
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - slothfacekilla - 09-30-2020
09-30-2020, 08:08 PMgoldenglutes Wrote:09-30-2020, 06:05 PMslothfacekilla Wrote: Well that is pretty cool!
peak TPE twins (let's ignore the fact that I forgot to claim team training camp until last week)
RE: [SHLMG] Peak TPE Attained per Draft Position (S30-46) - Thelastheraclid - 09-30-2020
Excellent read!
You hear that awards committee best 20th pick of all time