How lucky are your card draws?

How lucky are your card draws? - Printable Version

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How lucky are your card draws? - Keven - 04-02-2022

Hi everyone,

After seeing a discussion in the trading card server about the chances of pulling certain numbers of cards, I decided to brush up on math skills and write a little text based tool to determine how lucky you are when it comes to card draws. All you have to do is enter the number of cards you own for each rarity and the program will tell you your odds of getting that amount or fewer of the rarity as well as that amount or more of it. For results to be accurate, you must include ALL cards, including duplicates. If you only care about certain rarities, you can enter the correct number for those rarities only and just ensure that the total sum of cards regardless of rarity adds to the sum of your entire collection. Using my collection as an example, the use of the program is as follows:

LINK TO THE TOOL: https://www.online-python.com/LFvw9BcxKM (Last updated 2022-04-05)

To use the tool, click the run button first and then enter your values as shown below, pressing enter after submitting your number for each prompt.

# of Hall of Fame cards:
1
# of Diamond cards:
2
# of Ruby cards:
1
# of Logo cards:
3
# of Gold cards:
8
# of Silver cards:
37
# of Bronze cards:
50

After drawing 102 total cards

98.951 % chance of getting 1 or fewer hall of fame cards
14.197 % chance of getting 1 or more hall of fame cards

84.005 % chance of getting 2 or fewer diamond cards
40.109 % chance of getting 2 or more diamond cards

8.163 % chance of getting 1 or fewer ruby cards
98.445 % chance of getting 1 or more ruby cards

32.135 % chance of getting 3 or fewer logo cards
84.262 % chance of getting 3 or more logo cards

2.306 % chance of getting 8 or fewer gold cards
98.998 % chance of getting 8 or more gold cards

93.001 % chance of getting 37 or fewer silver cards
10.255 % chance of getting 37 or more silver cards

82.015 % chance of getting 50 or fewer bronze cards
23.643 % chance of getting 50 or more bronze cards

When looking at these results, I focus on a different number depending if I want to know how lucky or unlucky I got.

For example, I feel like getting 1 hall of fame card this early was fairly lucky, so I look at the second line of text where it tells me there was only a 14.197% chance of having 1 or more hall of fame card at this point.

On the other hand, I feel like getting only 8 golds was fairly unlucky, so I look at the first line of text where it tells me there was only a 2.306% chance of having 8 or fewer gold cards at this point.

For common cards it's the opposite. I would rather not have 37 silver cards in my collection, so I look at the second row to see that there was only a 10.255% chance of having so many silvers by now.

There really isn't anything useful you can do with this information, but if you're anything like me then you'll enjoy the process of seeing these numbers while on your gambling addiction journey.

Just like my chances of getting 3 or more logo cards, my confidence in the correctness of this math is around 85% so if you're someone who is super smart and knows what they're doing I'd love to hear if you agree with my methods.

Enjoy!

600 words + 50 lines of code

RE: How lucky are your card draws? - caltroit_red_flames - 04-02-2022

So what you're saying is I need to make hof cards more rare, got it!

RE: How lucky are your card draws? - RAmenAmen - 04-02-2022

CODE!!! This will be very helpful in justifying the money I'm throwing away at cards.

RE: How lucky are your card draws? - brickwall35 - 04-02-2022

04-02-2022, 10:41 PMKeven Wrote: Hi everyone,

After seeing a discussion in the trading card server about the chances of pulling certain numbers of cards

You could have just tagged me.

Cool tool though, super interesting!

RE: How lucky are your card draws? - Keven - 04-02-2022

04-02-2022, 11:23 PMbrickwall35 Wrote:
04-02-2022, 10:41 PMKeven Wrote: Hi everyone,

After seeing a discussion in the trading card server about the chances of pulling certain numbers of cards

You could have just tagged me.

Cool tool though, super interesting!

I always forget to assume that people probably enjoy getting site pings rather than being bothered by them.

I'm still not gonna do it though

RE: How lucky are your card draws? - FlappyGiraffe - 04-02-2022

I might be the unluckiest person at pulling bronzes on the site. 0.077% chance of getting this few bronzes according to this

Code:
# of Hall of Fame cards: 

0

# of Diamond cards: 

4

# of Ruby cards: 

4

# of Logo cards: 

5

# of Gold cards: 

15

# of Silver cards: 

48

# of Bronze cards: 

32

After drawing  108  total cards

85.034 % chance of getting  0 or fewer  hall of fame  cards

100.000 % chance of getting  0 or more  hall of fame  cards

98.408 % chance of getting  4 or fewer  diamond  cards

5.922 % chance of getting  4 or more  diamond  cards

56.533 % chance of getting  4 or fewer  ruby  cards

63.125 % chance of getting  4 or more  ruby  cards

64.111 % chance of getting  5 or fewer  logo  cards

53.818 % chance of getting  5 or more  logo  cards

43.734 % chance of getting  15 or fewer  gold  cards

66.730 % chance of getting  15 or more  gold  cards

99.947 % chance of getting  48 or fewer  silver  cards

0.105 % chance of getting  48 or more  silver  cards

0.077 % chance of getting  32 or fewer  bronze  cards

99.962 % chance of getting  32 or more  bronze  cards

RE: How lucky are your card draws? - Keven - 04-02-2022

04-02-2022, 11:40 PMFlappyGiraffe Wrote: I might be the unluckiest person at pulling bronzes on the site. 0.077% chance of getting this few bronzes according to this

Code:
# of Hall of Fame cards: 0 # of Diamond cards: 4 # of Ruby cards: 4 # of Logo cards: 5 # of Gold cards: 15 # of Silver cards: 48 # of Bronze cards: 32 After drawing 108 total cards 85.034 % chance of getting 0 or fewer hall of fame cards 100.000 % chance of getting 0 or more hall of fame cards 98.408 % chance of getting 4 or fewer diamond cards 5.922 % chance of getting 4 or more diamond cards 56.533 % chance of getting 4 or fewer ruby cards 63.125 % chance of getting 4 or more ruby cards 64.111 % chance of getting 5 or fewer logo cards 53.818 % chance of getting 5 or more logo cards 43.734 % chance of getting 15 or fewer gold cards 66.730 % chance of getting 15 or more gold cards 99.947 % chance of getting 48 or fewer silver cards 0.105 % chance of getting 48 or more silver cards 0.077 % chance of getting 32 or fewer bronze cards 99.962 % chance of getting 32 or more bronze cards

Looks like you're doing some fancy chemistry to turn bronze into silver here.

This is exactly the type of reply I love to see

RE: How lucky are your card draws? - Citizen of Adraa - 04-03-2022

Really good luck on the ruby+ cards so far, logos are kinda nowhere tho

Code:
After drawing  131  total cards

893 % chance of getting  2 or fewer  hall of fame  cards

686 % chance of getting  2 or more  hall of fame  cards

762 % chance of getting  3 or fewer  diamond  cards

053 % chance of getting  3 or more  diamond  cards

932 % chance of getting  8 or fewer  ruby  cards

547 % chance of getting  8 or more  ruby  cards

461 % chance of getting  3 or fewer  logo  cards

738 % chance of getting  3 or more  logo  cards

954 % chance of getting  18 or fewer  gold  cards

316 % chance of getting  18 or more  gold  cards

007 % chance of getting  37 or fewer  silver  cards

001 % chance of getting  37 or more  silver  cards

825 % chance of getting  60 or fewer  bronze  cards

039 % chance of getting  60 or more  bronze  cards

Just noticed that the chance to have 3+ HOF cards is like .2%? Yeah can't complain :D