Is Being #1 Seed Cursed [DOUBLE IIHF] - Printable Version +- Simulation Hockey League (https://simulationhockey.com) +-- Forum: League Media (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=610) +--- Forum: SHL Media (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=46) +---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=545) +---- Thread: Is Being #1 Seed Cursed [DOUBLE IIHF] (/showthread.php?tid=125007)

Is Being #1 Seed Cursed [DOUBLE IIHF] - McAl95 - 07-01-2022 Sports and superstitions go together like ketchup and pasta, it’s just natural. Players might have a superstition of having the same meal or routine before each and every game. Some might think that there’s a lucky number when it comes to entering the playoffs or a seed number that is magical, and that’s what we’ll be exploring today. Today we’ll look to answer the question “Is the #1 Ranked team cursed in the IIHF playoffs?” You may think that this is a silly or dumb questions but when you dive into previous IIHF results, the outcome may actually surprise you. Join me as we look at what the answer to this question is and if there is a seed that teams should strive for when entering the IIHF playoffs. I’ll be looking at and using all the available data found on the IIHF index page so it’ll cover all the way from S53 to S64 since there hasn’t been a winner crowned yet for S65. I’m also exploring this because lets be honest I need the money and I need a lot of it, so bear with me and lets get on this journey and start talking hockey. Before going any further, some clarifications first and foremost. As mentioned, all information is being gathered from the IIHF index Standings page from the Regular Season and Playoff tabs. This data will be gathered and put into a chart that will be linked below for easier reading and understanding. This should also hopefully point out trends and interesting statistics about whether or not the #1 Ranked team in the standings going into the playoffs is cursed or not. Maybe this will affect how teams think of playing their games or maybe people will just find this useless and not really important. I can’t tell you what to think, so good luck. Here are some fun little facts for you before looking into if that #1 is cursed or not. Out of the 12 recorded IIHF tournaments that have been completed (S53-S64) on the index page, Team Canada and Great Britain have appeared in the most finals being present for 58.3% (7/12) of them. Great Britain and Canada faced off against each other 50% (6/12) of the time in the grand total of finals and 85.7% (6/7) when at least Canada or Great Britain were involved. Canada and Great Britain also hold the record for most consecutive finals being present from S54 to S58, 5 total, totaling for 41.6% of the finals recorded. The season that had the lowest seeds facing off against each other was in Season 60 with Japan at #8 and Great Britain at #6. The lowest ranked team to ever win a gold medal according to available data was Team USA at the 10th rank in Season 63. Now time for the good stuff. The stuff we’ve all been waiting for. The answer to the big ole questions “Is the #1 Ranked team cursed in the IIHF playoffs?” The answer to this may surprise you. The number on seed has only appeared in 41.6% (5/12) of the finals recorded. Out of the 5 final appearances by the #1 Ranked team in Standings, 80% (4/5) of the time they have won the gold medal, which in all things considered is pretty reasonable, but when examining the broader context the #1 team only winning 33% (4/12) of the time isn’t that appealing. What is stunning is that the #1 Ranked team is just as likely to get eliminated in the first round as they are making it to the finals based on recorded history. Both values are 41.6% (5/12) through recorded history. The remaining 16.6% (2/12) of the time the #1 Team being eliminated in the second round of competition. So with the knowledge that the #1 Team is either bound for greatness and a shot at the gold medal or bound to flame out in the first round, the question now becomes, what seed should the teams compete for if they want to win a gold medal or if they want to make it to the finals? Out of the data collected here's how often each seeded team would make it to the finals: #1 Rank: 5 appearances (41.6%) #2 Rank: 5 appearances (41.6%) #3 Rank: 3 appearances (25%) #4 Rank: 4 appearances (33.3%) #5 Rank: 1 appearance (8.3%) #6 Rank: 3 appearances (25%) #7 Rank: 0 appearances #8 Rank: 2 appearances (16.6%) #9 Rank: 0 appearances #10 Rank: 1 appearance (8.3%) Okay so maybe being #1 isn’t as cursed in terms of final appearances. Being #7 or #9 on the other hand, yikes. Lets take it one step further though and see how many of those final appearances turned into gold medals. #1 Rank: 5 appearances, 4 wins. 4/5 wins (80%) #2 Rank: 5 appearances, 2 wins. 2/5 (40%) #3 Rank: 3 appearances, 0 wins. 0/3 (0%) #4 Rank: 4 appearances, 1 win. 1/4 (25%) #5 Rank: 1 appearance, 1 win. 1/1 (100%) #6 Rank: 3 appearances, 2 wins. 2/3 (66.7%) #7 Rank: 0 appearances. Sad #8 Rank: 2 appearances, 1 win. 1/2 (50%) #9 Rank: 0 appearances. Sad #10 Rank: 1 appearance, 1 win. 1/1 (100%) Just based on these statistics alone getting the #5 or #10 seed and making it to the finals is your best chance at winning the gold, with #1 not too far behind with #6 making a strong effort. This brings us back to our original question of “Is the #1 Ranked team cursed in the IIHF playoffs?”. The answer to this question is yes but also no. Based on the data shown the #1 seed has the best win to appearance record and percentage of all the ranked teams, however as we have also seen the #1 ranked team is also just as likely to be out in the first round as they are to make a final appearance, remember both values are 41.6% (5/12) Being the #1 ranked team is a blessing and a curse in a sense. As for what rank teams should go for in terms of standings, we’ve seen that based on records #5 and #10 have a 100% win rate when making it to the finals but rarely make it there as they each have their one appearance respectively. The #6 ranked team has had the second most success based on their appearances but yet still don’t appear enough in the finals to justify a spot to be chased. The #2 ranked team has just as many appearances as #1 yet have half the number of gold medal wins as the #1 team (Team #1 has a 80% success rate while Team #2 has a 40% success rate). In reality there is no special number to go for in the regular season as there really isn’t enough data to full determine if there is a lucky number. So if you’re a GM maybe go for that #1 spot at the end of the IIHF regular season, or don’t it’s really up to you and what you feel comfortable with. Maybe in a few seasons time I’ll come back to this to present a clearer picture and see if being #1 is more of a curse than it currently is. I secretly hope so just because I think that’ll be interesting. Down below is also a chart of all my collected data to show where I was getting my answers and number from. I hope you’ve enjoyed this journey I’ve taken you on and maybe you’ve learned something from it who knows. Maybe you’re a numbers person and enjoyed the statistics. Maybe you just like reading. Maybe you’re bored browsing the site and need something to do. Maybe you’re a GM and you thought this useful, maybe you didn’t. Maybe I’m just adding more words to get a bigger payout and you know what you’re probably onto something there so good job, go reward yourself with a pat on the back or whatever you see fitting to claim as a reward. RE: Is Being #1 Seed Cursed [DOUBLE IIHF] - steveoiscool - 07-01-2022 Moral of the story is that it's cursed for anyone not GBR, so just let GBR get the 1 seed and we can all leave happy