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+---- Thread: Breaking down the SMJHL (/showthread.php?tid=53017)
- Eggy216 - 07-13-2015
Good morning everyone, this is Michael Biron coming to you live today from our studios right here in Birmingham, England, breaking down what each team in the SMJHL needs to do if they want to win the Four Star Cup this season. We're going to go in reverse order of the standings today, starting with last place and working our way all the way up to first. So without further adieu, let's get started by looking at our very first team.
6.
Vancouver Whalers - 41 PointsYes. The Vancouver Whalers still have a shot at winning the Four Star Cup. Every single team has an equal opportunity to win in that they all make the playoffs each and every year. Just because the pre-season champions have fallen off hard doesn't mean that the team can't suddenly turn things around when the playoffs actually begin - after all, as the Whalers well know, a lot can happen between phases of the season.
The Whalers, as everyone knows, have had it pretty rough this season. They have the worst goal differential in the league (-35), and their defense has pretty much been a sieve - their 171 goals against are the worst in the league. It would be nice to be able to say their poor defense is balanced by a strong offense, but it's not - their 136 goals for are the second worst in the league, and even that is only one more than the league worst Prince George Firebirds at 135.
Moving forward, since they seem intent on keeping the same players on the ice that they've been using all season, the Whalers would probably see the most benefit from players tightening up defensively. This would come from improving their defensive play on the ice, as well as from players deciding to use their body to prevent pucks from getting to the net. Looking especially at the top line, defense is anything but a strength for the Whalers. Starting center Beau Ballard is currently one of the worst players in the league in his own end of the ice, and he's the guy playing the most minutes for the team. As far as shot blocking, the defensemen are the only ones who have really committed to this aspect of the game. Preventing pucks from ever getting to the net should be a huge help to a Whalers team that can't keep pucks out their own goal, and blocking shots may also help the team's possession numbers as they're able to take control of the puck in their own zone and get it back into the offensive zone.
The Whalers are becoming hot at the right time, however. They've won five of their last six games going into the end of the regular season. If they can keep this pace up, they'll probably do much better when it really matters. The team also has on their side the fact that they seem to have cracked the Prince George Firebirds, their likely round one opponent. They've gone 6-4 against PGF this season, including a recent 4-0 shutout just a few games ago. They may be the underdogs in the Western Conference, but don't be surprised to see them emerge as the dark horse team. It's not all that farfetched of an idea to think that we could be talking about the Four Star Cup Champion Vancouver Whalers after the season ends.
5.
Prince George Firebirds - 49 PointsThe Prince George Firebirds really haven't moved all season. They started out in fifth place, and they're still in fifth place. At least they're consistent. Their last ten games pretty much reflect the season they've had - at 4-5-1, they're just a little worse than .500. However, this consistency isn't really reflected in their games themselves. The Firebirds tend to have one of two results in their games - either they win by a goal or two, barely escaping with the victory, or they get blown out horribly and go home in shame.
The team has been lead all season by two players - defenseman Patrick Brumm and goaltender Kyle Prince. Brumm is definitely one of the top two defensemen in the league - the other being Detroit's Brandon Girard. Brumm has some impressive numbers this year, with a team leading fifteen goals and thirty assists for forty-five points. Prince has also been stellar, proving that he deserves recognition as one of the top goaltending prospects in the league. In forty-two games this season, Prince has won twenty of them. He has a 2.89 goals against average in those games, and a .883 save percentage to back that up. He also has two shutouts this season. If any goaltender could win a game on his home, it's definitely Kyle Prince. It's just too bad the guy can't stop pucks and score at the same time.
There's a few things the Firebirds need to do if they want to go far in the playoffs. First of all, something has to be done with the second pairing of Rick Chleb and Cynthia Taylor. When those two are on the ice, you might as well just give the other team a goal - both players have a -17 on the season. Only two players across the entire league have a worse +/- than that. These two should work on getting faster and stronger so that they can force other players off the puck, and prevent them from getting any opportunities on goal. But the issues with Chleb and Taylor might be more of a coaching issue. For some reason, the Firebirds have two of the most defense-oriented defenseman working in a primarily offensive role - in four-on-four situations, they completely ignore defense and go full on offense with a touch of physicality. This makes absolutely no sense, and completely ignores the strengths of these two defensemen.
The Firebirds are also having a lot of trouble this season when their special teams units are on the ice. Both their powerplay and their penalty kill are the worst in the league. However, when looking at the current configuration of the team's powerplay, it seems that the problems were resolved. The players currently playing on the powerplay have done really well there, so nothing really needs to be tweaked anymore. There's also nothing readily apparent that should be changed with the penalty kill, because I'm not really sure how exactly to read the effects in the sim on that one.
At the rate they're going, the Firebirds have a chance at pulling ahead of the Kelowna Knights, but it seems doubtful so you can expect the Firebirds to play the Whalers in round one. They're 4-4-2 against Vancouver this year, including three losses in their last three games against the club - including being shutout in the most recent of those losses. The Whalers are definitely going to give them a run for their money, but it's still possible that they could move on to round two, where they would face the Kelowna Knights, another team against whom they've seen mixed results. For the Firebirds, it's really fifty-fifty on whether or not they can win the Four Star Cup this season - it kind of depends on which team decides to show up.
4. :impact: Montreal Impact - 50 Points
The impact have just fallen apart lately, in the same way that a biscuit falls apart if you leave it in tea too long. And just like that tea, Montreal's season is pretty much ruined. They've won only one game in their last ten for a 1-7-2 record. This is a team that just a few days ago was thought to be battling it out with Detroit and St. Louis for the first place spot in the league, and now the biggest question is whether they can hold on long enough to keep the Prince George Firebirds from passing them up. Montreal has been just about even in their goal differential this season, currently sitting at a -6. While no players have really stepped up to be the main goal scorer for the team, this hasn't been a problem because ten players have over twenty points this season - a very well rounded performance, with credit due to every player on every line.
One problem the team has had is the inability to rely on their backup goaltender. Starter Earnest Ciarelli has done really well, with a .883 save percentage and a 2.97 goals against average, but when he has the night off the Impact are going struggle - backup John Hirschman has a .844 save percentage and a whopping 4.49 Goals Against Average in twelve games this season. It's no wonder the team's only managed one win this entire season while he was in goal.
There's two main areas in which the Montreal Impact really need to improve before the playoffs if they want to stop this recent skid and make it anywhere. The first area would be to work on their performance in the faceoff circle. In fact, this is probably the source of most of their problems. They're the worst team in the league in this regard, with a 48.17% faceoff win percentage. The team's starting center Evandrus Jesster has only won 47.34% of his faceoffs all season long, and Devon Mack, who is often taking faceoffs in key defensive situations, has a 48.57% faceoff win percentage. By focusing entirely on faceoffs before the playoffs, the team might also be able to rectify their second problem - a huge shooting disparity. The team is the worst in the league in both shots for and shots against, taking only 21.72 shots per game while allowing 26.40 per game. This most likely stems from their issues in the faceoff circle, because losing faceoffs means the team isn't often in possession of the puck. Fix the faceoffs, and the results will come.
The Impact have struggled with possession all season long, and it's finally catching up with them. They're definitely a long shot to win the East, but they could still do it. They're 2-8 against the Scarecrows this season, and that's the team they'd face if the season were to end today, and their likely opponent considering the Falcons currently lead the Scarecrows by three points with a game in hand. Honestly, I'd be very surprised to see the Impact make it out of the first round, let alone with the conference. They're probably the least likely team to win the Four Star Cup this season - yes, even less likely than the Whalers.
3.
Kelowna Knights - 53 PointsThe Kelowna Knights have been a dominating team as of late, putting up eight wins in their last ten games. Their fifty-three points are four more than the Firebirds to give them first in the Western Conference, and three more than the Montreal Impact to give them third in the SMJHL. The Knights are one of only two teams to have a positive goal differential, sitting at +17 on the season, and have a respectable 24-18-5 record on the year.
The Knights have been lead this season by one of the best forwards in the league - Adam Abodobe. Abodobe currently sits at second in league scoring, and looks to pass sixty points on the season very soon - at twenty-nine goals and twenty-nine assists for fifty-eight points, this shouldn't be a problem for him at all. He's also been deadly with the puck this year - 19.08% of his shots have found their way to the back of the net.
They've also been riding their goaltender Igor Ogorodnikov really, really hard all season. He's started all forty-seven of the Knights' games this season, with the backup seeing action only when he's pulled. As pointed out by Patrick Brumm who was probably drunk at the time of writing, this could run the Knights into trouble next season - but that's a matter for another day. Ogorodnikov has won twenty-four of his forty-seven starts this season, posting a .883 save percentage and a 2.98 goals against average. He should have no problem continuing this in the playoffs.
Kelowna could definitely be considered one of the most well-rounded teams in the league this year. While they've neglected to give their backup goaltender any ice-time, I don't think it would have been a problem for the team if they had used a proper two-goalie system. They have one of the best records on both the powerplay and the penalty kill, they're outshooting their opponents by a slim margin, and when you look at the physical game and their faceoff performance there's no team that's done better. Really for the Knights there's nothing we can point to and say "this needs to change" - rather, we just need to say "keep doing what you've been doing."
The Knights are probably going to be the team that gets a bye in the first round. As such, they would play the winner of a Vancouver Whalers-Prince George Firebirds series. Against the Whalers this season, the Knights have gone 5-3-2. Against the Prince George Firebirds, the Knights have a 5-4 record, most recently a 7-1 victory. Really, there isn't a particular team the Knights should be rooting for in the first series, as both teams will give them an equally hard time in the second round of the playoffs.
2.
St. Louis Scarecrows - 58 PointsThe St. Louis Scarecrows have been one of the best teams in the SMJHL all season long, but this pace has slowed recently. The team has gone 4-6-0 in their last ten games, and for the first time all season fell from first to second place just a few short days ago. Their recent stretch has included two straight losses to the first place Detroit Falcons, and the last place Vancouver Whalers.
The Scarecrows have been led this season by one man - goaltender Sergei Kozar. Kozar was able to literally carry this team through the beginning of the season, a time when first overall pick Robb Wind was struggling to put together a decent start to his career. Kozar has started in 25 games this season, and posted an impressive .884 save percentage with a 2.89 goals against average in those games. He's also done rather well on shootout attempts, with a .857 save percentage on seven attempts. With Kozar in goal, the Scarecrows know they'll have always have a shot at winning games.
Offensively this season, the story has been all about Damien Wert. The left-winger has been playing on the first line alongside center Mitchell Dambach and right-winger Robb Wind, and posted twenty-six goals and twenty-five assists for fifty-one points in forty-eight games played for the Scarecrows. He's a +9 on the season, and has only taken four penalties this year. While it took a while for the line to get started, the combination of Wert-Dambach-Wind is definitely one of the more formidable lines in the SMJHL this season, and as long as they continue to click it should be possible for the Scarecrows to make a run at the Four Star Cup this year.
There are a few things the Scarecrows should work on before the playoffs come. The most important thing would be to work on their ability to win faceoffs. As a team they have the second worst performance in the faceoff circle this season - at 48.84%, they're more likely to start out without the puck than with it, and that has allowed opposing teams to get more shots on goal than the scarecrows have. Part of this problem has been rookie center Nick Leier, who has won only 48.80% of the draws he's taken all year. When your top powerplay unit and your second line are starting without the puck more than they're starting with it, you're going to be in a lot of trouble.
Assuming everything stays the way it is right now, the Scarecrows will be playing in round one against the Montreal Impact. The Scarecrows went 8-2 in the season series against the Impact, and as such it shouldn't be too much trouble for the Scarecrows to defeat them and move on to round two. But while it looks to be easy for the Scarecrows to at least see two rounds of action in the playoffs, it seems doubtful that they'll get a shot at the Four Star Cup this season.
1.
Detroit Falcons - 61 PointsThe Detroit Falcons currently sit in first place in the SMJHL, having played one more game than the St. Louis Scarecrows. In forty-nine games this season, the Falcons went 27-15-7, with an impressive goal differential of +35. In their last ten games, the Falcons have held strong going 6-3-1, however these games do include a recent losing streak of two games, in which they dropped two straight against the Montreal Impact.
The Falcons have a lot of players to thank for the position they find themselves in right now - everyone has been able to contribute in some way to the team's success. Alex Mack has been huge for the team this year. In forty-nine games, Mack has scored sixteen goals and added thirty-nine assists for a total of fifty-five points and a +17. Current centering first line with Michael Burch and Bjorn Knutsen, Mack has been a standout player for the Falcons, and the team would be in a much different place today if he wasn't on the team.
As far as defensemen, nobody comes to mind before Brandon Girard. He's had some anger management issues this season, with a whopping 98 penalty minutes - thirty of which have come from fights. But when he's on the ice, the team has benefitted greatly. He's tied for the team lead with a +18, and has twelve goals and thirty-nine assists for fifty-one points. Girard has been absolutely spectacular, though a little short-tempered, all year for the Falcons. His example as captain is one that has inspired rookies all season long, and that leadership is something SHL teams will covet when he finally makes the jump.
And then there's the goaltenders. The great thing about these two is that they've been completely interchangeable. Austin Lemieux has started twenty-six games, with a .868 save percentage and a 3.16 goals against average for thirteen wins this season. His compatriot Lee Bowden has done similarly well in his twenty-three starts and his .897 save percentage with his 2.57 goals against average are something any goaltender would be proud of - and the fourteen wins they've gotten him don't hurt either!
I've hit on this all season in The Falcon's Wing, but the biggest thing that the Falcons need to work on for the playoffs is their special teams. They're one of the best teams offensively and defensively - outscoring and outshooting every single opponent. But for some reason, this team just cannot click when there's less than ten skaters on the ice. Line changes haven't worked, strategy changes haven't worked. It's really hard to tell where the issue is with these special teams units, and it could end up costing the Falcons in the playoffs.
The Falcons will most likely have the first round off, and get to watch it at home while waiting to find out their opponent. And it's pretty clear which team they'll be hoping walks away with a first round victory - against the Montreal Impact this season, the Falcons have gone 3-5-2. In a playoff series, it's doubtful that the Falcons would be able to walk out with the win. However, against the Scarecrows the Falcons have gone a perfect 9-0. It would be a huge upset for the Falcons to drop a series against the Scarecrows in the playoffs, just as it would a huge upset for the Scarecrows to drop to the Impact. If the Falcons can secure themselves the bye in the first round, you can pretty much expect the Falcons to be playing in the championship series.
Thank you for stopping by today, and be sure to look for the regular season wrap-up in The Falcon's Wing coming to you later this week, including awards voted on by the players themselves!
Code:
3,392 words- Eggy216 - 07-13-2015
Updated -
:impact: finished.
- tweedlebrumm - 07-13-2015
We've blown out like 4 times all year, and all have been recently.
- Eggy216 - 07-13-2015
Quote:Originally posted by probablydrunk@Jul 13 2015, 11:19 AM
We've blown out like 4 times all year, and all have been recently.
I could be wrong. I have issues trying to read stuff in charts like that because it all kind of blends together.
- tweedlebrumm - 07-13-2015
Quote:Originally posted by Eggy216@Jul 13 2015, 08:23 AM
I could be wrong. I have issues trying to read stuff in charts like that because it all kind of blends together.
I mean the fact we have 7 OTL alone kind of counteracts that fact. But it's all good, good write up regardless.
- Eggy216 - 07-13-2015
Quote:Originally posted by probablydrunk@Jul 13 2015, 11:25 AM
I mean the fact we have 7 OTL alone kind of counteracts that fact. But it's all good, good write up regardless.
Thanks. I spent forever trying to figure out PGF's problems on the special teams, and I honestly can't figure it out. Did you guys make changes at some point, or is something weird like you guys are getting a ton of chances? Because honestly from what I saw it didn't look like you guys should be last in the league on the powerplay.
- tweedlebrumm - 07-13-2015
Quote:Originally posted by Eggy216@Jul 13 2015, 08:28 AM
Thanks. I spent forever trying to figure out PGF's problems on the special teams, and I honestly can't figure it out. Did you guys make changes at some point, or is something weird like you guys are getting a ton of chances? Because honestly from what I saw it didn't look like you guys should be last in the league on the powerplay.
I think we are cursed on special teams, we have had the same special teams most of the year. The pucks been bouncing the opposite of our direction all year, hopefully we can have a strong showing in the playoffs. If Kelowna has to play their backup goalie we could possibly take the west.
- Eggy216 - 07-13-2015
So my internet just died. I'll have to post the rest later when I can get it back up again.
Kelowna's part is done and I saved it in a word document, I'll add it in when I can actually post from a computer again
- Kevin Juice Bieksa - 07-13-2015
Starting center Beau Ballard is currently one of the worst players in the league in his own end of the ice, and he's the guy playing the most minutes for the team.
Finally someone sees the problem :D
- Eggy216 - 07-13-2015
Quote:Originally posted by Kevin "Juice" Bieksa@Jul 13 2015, 12:47 PM
Starting center Beau Ballard is currently one of the worst players in the league in his own end of the ice, and he's the guy playing the most minutes for the team.
Finally someone sees the problem :D
Tbh I think we should blame the Russian.
In all honesty, I could totally see you guys making a cup run. You have a pretty decent record in your own conference, and if we're the ones to make it out of the East we seem to always lose to you. Would be a kind of funny end to the season.
- karlssens - 07-13-2015
Quote:Originally posted by Eggy216@Jul 13 2015, 08:00 AMThanks, I needed a good laugh this morning. GO
It's not all that farfetched of an idea to think that we could be talking about the Four Star Cup Champion Vancouver Whalers after the season ends.
!
- Eggy216 - 07-14-2015
Updated with last three teams -
Sorry about the delay, internet issues caused a big issue with finishing this.