Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - Printable Version +- Simulation Hockey League (https://simulationhockey.com) +-- Forum: League Media (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=610) +--- Forum: SHL Media (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=46) +---- Forum: Graded Articles (https://simulationhockey.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=545) +---- Thread: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE (/showthread.php?tid=92638) |
Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - majesiu - 01-19-2019 We have our 75 defenceman and 118 forwards that made a cutoff of 13.9 AMG suggesting they get regular playing time on at least the third line. So often I hear that STHS is pure garbage and of course I agree, but I think we might get some interesting observations being 4/5ths done with the regular season. We have such advanced metric like points and p/20 from the index and since I'm not a hockey savant I'm going to use later, to at least eliminate sheer minute impact and cross-reference it with TPE levels. By all means, it's not perfect since many other factors affect your scoring - lines, power play or penalty kill duties, quality of your own team and opposition and randomness of the sim play a gigantic role. Still, I'm really frustrated with my player and wanted to see if it's an outlier or if there are more players like and I just love bitching and complaining. Obviously, points aren't everything but are certainly most talked stat and the one being often the most important with awards considerations. Interactive Forwards Chart Okay, this is pretty basic but shows already that there is a correlation between points and scoring tempo, but also a ton of outliers. Let's go a step ahead and make a new metric that will measure TPE success - Points Per TPE: PPTPE = (P/20 / TPE*)x808 808, because that's our league average when luke did the rankings and makes results much more visible too. It's rather basic and various improvements could be made (like not counting TPE above certain, since it doesn't nearly same returns). Pos, Team, Player, PPTPE 1. Alex Winters ® S43 TPE: 698 - 1,02 PPTPE 2. Derrick Glover S32 TPE: 685 - 0,98 PPTPE 3. Carter Manning S39 TPE: 753 - 0,85 PPTPE 4. Blabar Bananerstrom S37 TPE: 667 - 0,81 PPTPE 5. Vince Reaper ® S43 TPE: 588 - 0,80 PPTPE 6. Cam Ouellette S35 TPE: 642 - 0,79 PPTPE 7. Iam Essellemm S40 TPE: 988 - 0,78 PPTPE 8. Inari Twain S36 TPE: 636 - 0,75 PPTPE 9. Tony Pepperoni ® S43 TPE: 732 - 0,73 PPTPE 10. Nikolaus Scholz S25 TPE: 900 - 0,72 PPTPE 11. Luke Thomason ® S43 TPE: 751 - 0,71 PPTPE 12. Dayymo Ralchankinov S41 TPE: 722 - 0,71 PPTPE 13. Kristof Kovacs ® S43 TPE: 432 - 0,70 PPTPE 14. Andrew Martin ® S43 TPE: 632 - 0,70 PPTPE 15. Ace Redding S31 TPE: 823 - 0,69 PPTPE 16. Cameron Carter II S42 TPE: 721 - 0,68 PPTPE 17. Brennan Kennedy S31 TPE: 527 - 0,68 PPTPE 18. Joshua Woodcroft S38 TPE: 976 - 0,66 PPTPE 19. Yannick Berger S39 TPE: 774 - 0,65 PPTPE 20. Florence Clijsters S40 TPE: 941 - 0,65 PPTPE 21. Paddy O'Sullivan S39 TPE: 692 - 0,65 PPTPE 22. Brock Becker S39 TPE: 832 - 0,64 PPTPE 23. Xavier Paquette S41 TPE: 741 - 0,64 PPTPE 24. Kyle Kylrad S32 TPE: 1071 - 0,63 PPTPE 25. Artemi Berezin S38 TPE: 891 - 0,63 PPTPE 26. Eriks Skalbergs S42 TPE: 610 - 0,62 PPTPE 27. Jeff Brogen ® S43 TPE: 648 - 0,62 PPTPE 28. Pietra Volkova S31 TPE: 1267 - 0,61 PPTPE 29. Jax Aittokallio S43 TPE: 692 - 0,61 PPTPE 30. Esa Anrikkanen S18 TPE: 781 - 0,60 PPTPE 31. Herb Robert S42 TPE: 796 - 0,60 PPTPE 32. Trevor Wilson S31 TPE: 1228 - 0,59 PPTPE 33. Kolja Seppanen S39 TPE: 510 - 0,59 PPTPE 34. Leafer Rielly S32 TPE: 1212 - 0,58 PPTPE 35. DeMaricus Smyth S39 TPE: 1286 - 0,58 PPTPE 36. Sulak O'Hritea S43 TPE: 631 - 0,58 PPTPE 37. Flacko Lagerfield S41 TPE: 1054 - 0,58 PPTPE 38. Mercer Church S36 TPE: 688 - 0,57 PPTPE 39. James Dekens S40 TPE: 715 - 0,57 PPTPE 40. Gabriel Wong S38 TPE: 1146 - 0,56 PPTPE 41. Zach Evans S31 TPE: 1338 - 0,56 PPTPE 42. Noro Wozy S34 TPE: 1257 - 0,55 PPTPE 43. Hunter Jones S38 TPE: 1052 - 0,54 PPTPE 44. John Langabeer S33 TPE: 999 - 0,54 PPTPE 45. Louie Garrett S35 TPE: 1651 - 0,53 PPTPE 46. Jack Durden S25 TPE: 745 - 0,52 PPTPE 47. Shooter McGavin S40 TPE: 959 - 0,52 PPTPE 48. Goku Muerto S43 TPE: 665 - 0,52 PPTPE 49. Conklin Owen S30 TPE: 997 - 0,51 PPTPE 50. Viktor Marius S39 TPE: 1355 - 0,51 PPTPE 51. Alexander Zajac S36 TPE: 1183 - 0,51 PPTPE 52. Angelo Odjick S35 TPE: 1368 - 0,51 PPTPE 53. Nicky Pedersen Jr. ® S43 TPE: 656 - 0,50 PPTPE 54. TJ Bayley S38 TPE: 1128 - 0,50 PPTPE 55. Wolf Von Hammersmark S35 TPE: 715 - 0,49 PPTPE 56. Yuri Boyka Jr. S36 TPE: 1448 - 0,49 PPTPE 57. Cash Savage S41 TPE: 609 - 0,48 PPTPE 58. Brett Kennedy S34 TPE: 933 - 0,48 PPTPE 59. Conor McGregor S40 TPE: 862 - 0,48 PPTPE 60. Reginald Rove S40 TPE: 840 - 0,48 PPTPE 61. Vasily Horvat S31 TPE: 1106 - 0,48 PPTPE 62. Anders Christiansen S39 TPE: 1113 - 0,47 PPTPE 63. Alex Light S31 TPE: 1420 - 0,47 PPTPE 64. Corey Bearss S31 TPE: 1181 - 0,47 PPTPE 65. Joe Kurczewski S31 TPE: 1678 - 0,47 PPTPE 66. Mikhail Lokitonov S39 TPE: 1369 - 0,47 PPTPE 67. Dani Forsberg S34 TPE: 1659 - 0,47 PPTPE 68. Dakota Reid S36 TPE: 958 - 0,46 PPTPE 69. Hercules Rockefeller S37 TPE: 1469 - 0,46 PPTPE 70. Eric Pelletier S36 TPE: 1200 - 0,46 PPTPE 71. Roman Augustus S36 TPE: 1722 - 0,46 PPTPE 72. Xander Green S34 TPE: 1080 - 0,46 PPTPE 73. Joseph Lombardi S36 TPE: 1278 - 0,45 PPTPE 74. Cory Knouse S32 TPE: 1364 - 0,45 PPTPE 75. Nico Gross S38 TPE: 921 - 0,45 PPTPE 76. Leshaun King S43 TPE: 805 - 0,45 PPTPE 77. Alex Andani S41 TPE: 711 - 0,44 PPTPE 78. Dank Boija ® S43 TPE: 621 - 0,44 PPTPE 79. Philipp Winter ® S43 TPE: 753 - 0,44 PPTPE 80. Vijanupatan Singh S36 TPE: 1347 - 0,44 PPTPE 81. Richard Metcalf Jr. ® S43 TPE: 612 - 0,43 PPTPE 82. Dionyz Vyskoc S36 TPE: 1214 - 0,42 PPTPE 83. Alex Mack S22 TPE: 564 - 0,42 PPTPE 84. Matthew Auston S34 TPE: 1453 - 0,41 PPTPE 85. Boris Denisovich ® S42 TPE: 531 - 0,41 PPTPE 86. Romualds Loks S39 TPE: 840 - 0,41 PPTPE 87. Crossfit Jesus S33 TPE: 1310 - 0,41 PPTPE 88. Lyndis Vakarian S38 TPE: 1119 - 0,41 PPTPE 89. Logan Jensen S37 TPE: 1128 - 0,40 PPTPE 90. Terrance Nova S32 TPE: 1741 - 0,40 PPTPE 91. Lil Manius S43 TPE: 753 - 0,40 PPTPE 92. Bobby Watson S38 TPE: 1499 - 0,40 PPTPE 93. Halfdan Thorstein S33 TPE: 1115 - 0,40 PPTPE 94. Dick Skillstedt S38 TPE: 1348 - 0,40 PPTPE 95. Noah Konn S42 TPE: 890 - 0,39 PPTPE 96. Luke Atmey S32 TPE: 1548 - 0,39 PPTPE 97. Chris York S33 TPE: 1325 - 0,39 PPTPE 98. Oliver König S36 TPE: 1596 - 0,39 PPTPE 99. Sophia Bennett S35 TPE: 1817 - 0,39 PPTPE 100. Viktor Vorkämpfer S33 TPE: 1087 - 0,38 PPTPE 101. David Kastrba ® S42 TPE: 610 - 0,37 PPTPE 102. Kevin Hamilton S38 TPE: 1233 - 0,37 PPTPE 103. Jonathan Lundberg S25 TPE: 1052 - 0,37 PPTPE 104. Rafe Ulrich S42 TPE: 883 - 0,37 PPTPE 105. Nicholas Williams ® S43 TPE: 704 - 0,37 PPTPE 106. Tigole Bitties S36 TPE: 1999 - 0,36 PPTPE 107. Dermot Lavelle S38 TPE: 1444 - 0,36 PPTPE 108. Robert Phelps S35 TPE: 1942 - 0,35 PPTPE 109. Manuel Gotze S40 TPE: 1078 - 0,34 PPTPE 110. Colton Hagan S36 TPE: 1022 - 0,34 PPTPE 111. Jason Visser S31 TPE: 1809 - 0,34 PPTPE 112. Maximilian Wachter S27 TPE: 954 - 0,33 PPTPE 113. Teddy Cuddles S36 TPE: 1600 - 0,30 PPTPE 114. Piotr Czerkawski S41 TPE: 1035 - 0,29 PPTPE 115. Oisin Fletcher S36 TPE: 1916 - 0,27 PPTPE 116. Kevin Kazarian S43 TPE: 631 - 0,26 PPTPE 117. Mike Izzy S35 TPE: 1997 - 0,25 PPTPE 118. Jason Forbrook S30 TPE: 340 - 0,24 PPTPE The overall average for forwards was 0,51, a nice value for made up quickly metric. Interactive chart Also apparently you can dominate SHL and be on record-breaking pace with 1st line consisting of hugely underperforming players. Who could've guessed it? Time for defenders: P/20 vs TPE interactive chart forum output 1. Craig Finley ® S43 TPE: 535 - 1,04 PPTPE 2. Gilmore Tuttle S40 TPE: 341 - 0,94 PPTPE 3. Jon Tellofsen S39 TPE: 537 - 0,91 PPTPE 4. Poopity Scoop ® S44 TPE: 580 - 0,67 PPTPE 5. Caelan Fearghal S33 TPE: 651 - 0,65 PPTPE 6. Geoff Moore S42 TPE: 647 - 0,61 PPTPE 7. Kristaps Ball S41 TPE: 768 - 0,59 PPTPE 8. Sean Stevenson Jr. ® S43 TPE: 549 - 0,57 PPTPE 9. Cara Hohenberg S30 TPE: 365 - 0,56 PPTPE 10. Mia Landvik S28 TPE: 980 - 0,56 PPTPE 11. Chuck Goody Jr. S35 TPE: 580 - 0,56 PPTPE 12. Ray Bork S44 TPE: 534 - 0,55 PPTPE 13. Patrick Brumm Jr. S39 TPE: 480 - 0,55 PPTPE 14. Maui S42 TPE: 587 - 0,54 PPTPE 15. Jon Ross S30 TPE: 970 - 0,54 PPTPE 16. Jordan Von Matt S42 TPE: 690 - 0,54 PPTPE 17. Maurice Picard S38 TPE: 782 - 0,51 PPTPE 18. Buck Maverick S42 TPE: 532 - 0,51 PPTPE 19. Liam O'Calaghan S39 TPE: 1251 - 0,50 PPTPE 20. Nour Harrak S36 TPE: 1164 - 0,49 PPTPE 21. Sven Brokstad S37 TPE: 954 - 0,49 PPTPE 22. Tokek Takshak S42 TPE: 686 - 0,47 PPTPE 23. Adam Kaiser S31 TPE: 1146 - 0,46 PPTPE 24. Matthew Leetch S31 TPE: 758 - 0,46 PPTPE 25. Harvey Danger S42 TPE: 739 - 0,46 PPTPE 26. Jon Toner S39 TPE: 1100 - 0,45 PPTPE 27. Daniel Karlsson S41 TPE: 1054 - 0,45 PPTPE 28. Tatu Mäkelä S38 TPE: 1435 - 0,44 PPTPE 29. Karsten Kadinger S39 TPE: 855 - 0,44 PPTPE 30. Maximilian Egger ® S43 TPE: 578 - 0,44 PPTPE 31. Fredrich Koenig S39 TPE: 883 - 0,43 PPTPE 32. Toivo Kosonen S31 TPE: 1305 - 0,43 PPTPE 33. GOD McZehrl S40 TPE: 1154 - 0,43 PPTPE 34. Rex Kirkby S43 TPE: 732 - 0,42 PPTPE 35. Ben Dover S30 TPE: 1286 - 0,42 PPTPE 36. James Johnson S39 TPE: 914 - 0,41 PPTPE 37. Clint Eastwood S36 TPE: 1201 - 0,41 PPTPE 38. Brady McIntyre S39 TPE: 1434 - 0,40 PPTPE 39. Ti-Guy Emond S39 TPE: 935 - 0,39 PPTPE 40. Jean-Luc Reflieux S30 TPE: 959 - 0,38 PPTPE 41. Fedor Shirobokov S35 TPE: 1236 - 0,38 PPTPE 42. Richard Physt S39 TPE: 1028 - 0,37 PPTPE 43. Troy McClure III S42 TPE: 804 - 0,36 PPTPE 44. Spitfire S35 TPE: 1134 - 0,36 PPTPE 45. Blaine McElroy S40 TPE: 571 - 0,36 PPTPE 46. Shoyu Kikkoman: S35 TPE: 756 - 0,35 PPTPE 47. Luisa Koller S36 TPE: 405 - 0,35 PPTPE 48. Max Weber S32 TPE: 1292 - 0,34 PPTPE 49. Otis B. Driftwood S40 TPE: 1144 - 0,34 PPTPE 50. Sami Owens S36 TPE: 1409 - 0,34 PPTPE 51. Alexis Metzler S31 TPE: 1630 - 0,33 PPTPE 52. Ensio Kalju S40 TPE: 1007 - 0,33 PPTPE 53. Mikhail Petrikov S39 TPE: 607 - 0,33 PPTPE 54. Bob Bergen S39 TPE: 1284 - 0,33 PPTPE 55. Tor Tuck S37 TPE: 1634 - 0,32 PPTPE 56. Connor Tanner S37 TPE: 1487 - 0,32 PPTPE 57. Zander Rhys S33 TPE: 1424 - 0,32 PPTPE 58. Svatoslav Bodnar S38 TPE: 655 - 0,32 PPTPE 59. Finn Krüger S35 TPE: 1523 - 0,32 PPTPE 60. Thé Dude S38 TPE: 1419 - 0,31 PPTPE 61. Casey Creller S36 TPE: 1145 - 0,29 PPTPE 62. Isak Ødegård S36 TPE: 1687 - 0,29 PPTPE 63. Ludwig Koch Schroder S31 TPE: 1690 - 0,29 PPTPE 64. Charles Walker S33 TPE: 1459 - 0,28 PPTPE 65. Charlie Schieck ® S42 TPE: 850 - 0,28 PPTPE 66. Jakub Trocheck S34 TPE: 687 - 0,28 PPTPE 67. Reginald MacIntyre S41 TPE: 934 - 0,28 PPTPE 68. Gary Grease S39 TPE: 1410 - 0,27 PPTPE 69. Isaac Cormier-Hale S33 TPE: 1114 - 0,26 PPTPE 70. Viatcheslav Orlov S30 TPE: 747 - 0,26 PPTPE 71. Tig Murphy ® S43 TPE: 721 - 0,26 PPTPE 72. Jack Tanner S37 TPE: 1642 - 0,25 PPTPE 73. Karno Gronkjaer S39 TPE: 552 - 0,24 PPTPE 74. Ostap Maksimov S39 TPE: 1059 - 0,23 PPTPE 75. Karl Hefeweizen S36 TPE: 1178 - 0,21 PPTPE Average here was 0.41 PPTPE D-man interactive chart While it is very basic metric I think it's interesting one and maybe encourages more people to tinker with stats to at least make up for some STHS deficiencies. And I kind of proved that my complaining wasn't completely baseless either. Many things could be improved upon:
Sheet Link for grading too Shoutout to@luketd for TPE rankings that were very helpful with this article. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - White Cornerback - 01-19-2019 my career is being wasted in Buffalo RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - DeletedAtUserRequest - 01-19-2019 good stuff here +1 RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - WannabeFinn - 01-19-2019 This is going to be inherently tilted towards lower TPE players due to the fact that TPE is “worth” more earlier on in the update scale. This will only be exacerbated by lower TPE players being put in roles “above their pay grade” by teams who lack other options. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - karlssens - 01-19-2019 tony and nik top 10! Interesting article. nice read maj. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - majesiu - 01-19-2019 01-19-2019, 04:18 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: This is going to be inherently tilted towards lower TPE players due to the fact that TPE is “worth” more earlier on in the update scale. This will only be exacerbated by lower TPE players being put in roles “above their pay grade” by teams who lack other options. I completely agree, hence my mention of many ideas to improve this upon if I ever find time/motivation to do so. Still, even upon top (1400+ TPE) players that get very similar roles (1st/2nd Line, 35%+ ice time, PP & PK duties), there is a ton of difference, especially with forwards. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - 39alaska39 - 01-19-2019 Hey I’m #1 in something! RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - adamantium - 01-19-2019 01-19-2019, 04:18 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: This is going to be inherently tilted towards lower TPE players due to the fact that TPE is “worth” more earlier on in the update scale. This will only be exacerbated by lower TPE players being put in roles “above their pay grade” by teams who lack other options. couldn't agree more. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - majesiu - 01-19-2019 01-19-2019, 05:56 PM39alaska39 Wrote: Hey I’m #1 in something! 01-19-2019, 04:43 PMkarlssens Wrote: tony and nik top 10! The point here isn't really to determine the best player since it only means they are doing it at a great rate compared to their TPE and are likely being put in the best position to score. The opposite could be said for the entire top line sitting in bottom 6 of the rankings, is it just bad luck or maybe incompatible build, lines? 01-19-2019, 06:31 PMadamantium Wrote:Looking forward to improvement suggestions! You can also see players who are clearly over/underperforming because with ~200 players it's decent sample size even in TPE range e.g. there are dominant this season players like Iam Esellemm or disappointing like Piotr Czerkawski in around 1000 TPE mark. Studds like Louie Garrett or duds like Teddy Cuddles above 1500 TPE. I feel like some logarithmic scale to the TPE I use in the formula could yield more interesting results, or at the very least derived from update scale tiers to find when TPE is most useful and yields biggest returns.01-19-2019, 04:18 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: This is going to be inherently tilted towards lower TPE players due to the fact that TPE is “worth” more earlier on in the update scale. This will only be exacerbated by lower TPE players being put in roles “above their pay grade” by teams who lack other options. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - adamantium - 01-19-2019 01-19-2019, 06:31 PMadamantium Wrote: couldn't agree more.Looking forward to improvement suggestions! You can also see players who are clearly over/underperforming because with ~200 players it's decent sample size even in TPE range e.g. there are dominant this season players like Iam Esellemm or disappointing like Piotr Czerkawski in around 1000 TPE mark. Studds like Louie Garrett or duds like Teddy Cuddles above 1500 TPE. I feel like some logarithmic scale to the TPE I use in the formula could yield more interesting results, or at the very least derived from update scale tiers to find when TPE is most useful and yields biggest returns. [/quote] i'd offer suggestions, but the technicals of this aren't really my field. just wanted to voice an agreement is all. i think you did good work here, but i don't know how you deal with the inherent issue of wild outliers. either way. good work, like what you've done. don't know how it's improved, but you know. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - ToeDragon84 - 01-19-2019 01-19-2019, 08:00 PMmajesiu Wrote:01-19-2019, 05:56 PM39alaska39 Wrote: Hey I’m #1 in something!01-19-2019, 04:43 PMkarlssens Wrote: tony and nik top 10! Using applied points for everyone instead of total points will give you more accurate information as well. Mainly higher tpe guys have big banks of TPE. There's some random guys like Mcgreggor on BUF, who's like 900 TPE but has almost 100 banked. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - majesiu - 01-19-2019 01-19-2019, 08:10 PMToeDragon84 Wrote:01-19-2019, 08:00 PMmajesiu Wrote: The point here isn't really to determine the best player since it only means they are doing it at a great rate compared to their TPE and are likely being put in the best position to score. Oh, that's an actually very good call, I haven't thought about it, because I'm rather used to and prefer a model where archetypes always have interesting alternatives and never can max out. Still, it'll probably be hard to do since it ads a ton of additional legwork that would have to be done to check player pages and what amount of TPE they have stashed. RE: Best and Worst Expected Scorers so far - PPTPE - Grapehead - 01-19-2019 |