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+---- Thread: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win (/showthread.php?tid=97661)
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There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - StadiumGambler - 07-11-2019
(Word count is 2508 with mild research and effort involved.)
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First of all, let me preface the article by stating I bear no ill will towards any of the Barracuda. Not even Matt Kholin, whos about to steal a TPE from me by winning Rookie of the Year. I've got no beef with anyone in the locker room there, hell I'm pretty sure I would've been drafted to TBay had the Jets not taken me, as IIRC a GM was in contact with me to get picked. Overall, no beef, don't have a strong opinion of anyone except Kholin (good guy) and Soderberg/Jacobs/SixNine (Raptors).
However, I think everyone in that locker room knows deep down inside that this impressive Pres Trophy campaign was built on a house of cards thatched together with pure-grade Simon T bullshit. Its time to do a deep dive into this team and break it all down. How did the Tampa Bay Barracuda get 1st place in the SHL and destroy everyone's regular season predictions?
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REASON #1: The Boy in Blue is pretty good, who knew.
Lets get one thing straight here: Benjamin Blue is one of maybe three guys on the TBay roster who lives up to the position he plays. Not only should he win the McBride Trophy, but he should win league MVP of every variety as well. Replace Blue with a league average guy and the Barracuda would finish rock bottom. Blue had a .919 save % to lead the league and faced more shots than any other goaltender this season. Certainly impressive.
But lets be honest, as good as Blue is, and he won the McBride before, we all know this was RNG. Even if Tampa Bay were a great team in front of him, there have been elite goalies falling on their sword all year along behind good defenses. Tommy Tuck, Chris Partridge, and Walter Hobbs had good defenses in front of them and had horrid years by their standards. Kata Vilde had a fairly average year in net for a decent team in the Dragons. Cedric Robinson is right on the line between good and great and had a mediocre year for the Stampede, who should be dominating the league right now. Johannes Leitner didn't do too well for the Wolfpack in what was pretty close to a playoff year for the team. Scottey Crawfling got sucked into quicksand with the rest of a good Rage team.
Not to mention one of Blue's closest competitors to a McBride Trophy is Cedric Moreau, who was not pencilled in as Jets starter before the season began, but took over in the regular season via hot hand theory and had an excellent year, leading the league in GAA despite the fact he should've been like the 15th best starter in the SHL.
So clearly, while Blue is a good goalie, this was a topsy-turvy year for goalies around the league, and Blue could've just as easily been the one with the .900 save %, even if he was on a "normal" championship-caliber team.
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REASON #2: Matthew Guzman did a thing
This is a bit minor but still worth noting.
For those of you who are like "Who's Matthew Guzman and why does he matter?" he's the IFA backup for Tampa Bay. He got 5 starts this year and was horrible, yet the Barracuda got 3 points out of it via overtime losses.
Two of the three OT losses were to Texas and LA. Texas seems to be hindered a bit by the sim so fine, whatever, we'll say it was a bolt of lightning. LA is tanking, so fine, I can buy a random IFA showing holding them down to see OT for a second bolt of lightning. But the third OTL was a sign of some stuff that we'll touch on later: A 7-6 OT loss to the Manhattan Rage, with Crawfling in net.
The one time Guzman gets absolutely blown out, his team bails him out with 6 goals to salvage a point against what should've been a good team and what should've been a good goaltender. Good grief. I feel like Doctor Strange went through dozens of different futures and found the one reality where this outcome would happen and let it happen just to be a dick.
Also to me, Guzman is symptomatic of a real issue I see with TBay. If the GMs somehow knew this was their year and they could somehow dominate the regular season, why didn't they give more starts to recently drafted future hope Emiko Spector? Spector got in one game this year, and has a much better build than Guzman and would give at least a puncher's chance at taking home the W in half the backup starts. Also if theres conflicts between the J team and the parent club where you can't call up guys that are playing in the J same day, Detroit had an adequate J goalie in Jakub Hasek that they could plug in easily during games where Spector was needed up top. Was it miscommunication? Was it manipulating the rookie status before the rule change? I don't get it.
But lets say Spector isn't on the team at all: Why have Guzman? Even by 155 TPE IFA standards, Guzman's build is horrible, with plenty of waste in Penalty Shot and Puck Handling (to say nothing about how bad his build is if the grok/Mayuu experiments related to Rebound Control are true.) There are better 155 TPE IFA goalies out there, and depending on if you can raid SMJHL eligible goalies theres more there too that were better and still below 299 TPE for the salary cutoff. Hell, you could've swung a minor trade to West Kendall for Willis Vincent, or picked him up whenever West Kendall released him.
But Guzman being in net and the Spector thing, along with some other stuff will get to, points to me that TBay's GMs probably thought this would be another down year before a rise (when they could callup the bountiful fruits of their excellent S47 draft harvest), and so Guzman being bad wouldn't really matter to them. Even if you don't care about hyper-optimizing the damned IFA market, why not make your team the best you think it can be? Unless, of course, that wasn't the plan.......
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REASON #3: Tampa Bay used Gameshark situationally to manipulate puck luck.
This is a reason I'm a bit shaky on, but I feel its worth throwing out there:
-In games where TBay scored 1 or 2 goals, they went 2-6-5. Obviously, this stat is meaningless in and of itself without having other teams to compare it to, so I'll leave it to others to check the other teams and see if a 9 point yield from 13 games like this is high. I'm inclined to think it is though.
-In games where TBay allowed 5 or more goals, they went 2-6-3. This included the aforementioned gongshow in Manhattan that I'm still not sure is a thing that actually took place. Again, we need more basis of comparison on this, but I think 7 points out of 11 games is a pretty high yield in those circumstances.
-You'll note as well in the standings that TBay had 10 overtime losses, and 8 of them took place under these circumstances mentioned above. Nights where the offense was shut down but the goaltending managed to steal a win or at least get a point, or nights where the goaltending was breached but the offense chose that day to step up and put 6 goals past starting caliber netminders on good teams. Sounds a bit like puck luck to me.......
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REASON #4: WANTED: Alex Andani and Nolan Sawchuk for the crime of impersonating elite players
Ok, so are those two people above bad players? Of course not. Looking at the Dragons and Platoon Cup Finals last year, both would be completely serviceable second or third liners on those teams. Sawchuk has a shot at being a first liner on any team in a few seasons. Andani's getting older but is a reliable presence that would help any roster. I'm sure both are nice gusy in the locker room, and I'd want Nolan Sawchuk on the Jets for his name alone, as its a moniker dusted in grit if I've ever heard one.
The thing is, the Barracuda first line seems to have an uncommon and unexplained chemistry that goes against what we all get told about Simon T. You're supposed to have a group of people similar in overall talent but with different skillsets, and all three of those guys favour being scorers and are unbalanced in terms of overall talent (although Lagerfield does have Skating at 99 with Scoring.). Huh?
Lagerfield lighting it up with Andani and Sawchuk riding shotgun would make a bit of sense, because we sorta saw that happen last year in similar circumstances in Chicago. But these guys are collectively outscoring players like the New Orleans Specters forward core. How? This line goes against what GMs who have done stuff tell us to do and have done in the past. How are two guys below 1000 TPE reaching milestones that aren't being hit by LAST YEARS LEAGUE MVP?
But fine, lets pretend that this line makes perfect sense and Andani and Sawchuk would just be underutiliized on other teams and the management is just genius for knowing it would work and maybe Kristaps Ball is using voodoo magic from the back to make the line play better.
And sure, maybe even Nickolas Klaus socring 45 points on the 3rd line with 18 minutes a game makes perfect logical sense due to magic line chemistry. Fine, whatever. But no one, and I mean NO ONE, can explain this next one.........
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REASON #5: Tampa Bay's opponents consistently fail at completing basic hockey drills involving pylons.
This is the absolute smoking gun as to why none of this Tampa Bay season makes sense. Forget the other stuff. Forget the first line, forget Blue being chosen by the sim gods or the backup stuff, forget the close games that swung Tampa's way enough to get them points. Forget all of that.
Michael Owens and Joseph Gagnier. Thats where this whole house of cards should just be falling apart.
We're talking a pairing of two IFAs signed as roster filler that probably couldn't make Kelowna's 3rd pairing in the J. Yet here they are, combining for a total +/- of 26.
HOW?!
These guys should be leading the league in Pylon per 60, and yet these two are somehow holding down the fort on the 3rd pairing, 13 minutes a game, and even getting occasional random special teams time, and they aren't getting walked around. I mean sure they aren't doing much on the offensive end, but shouldn't every 3 on 2 with these guys end with a goal celebration and Benjamin Blue cursing into his Gatorade bottle?
This to me seems to be the obvious sign that Tampa Bay's GMs thought this season was a wash and thought well we'll get another franchise talent from S49 class and push harder to make the playoffs next time. Tampa had 1.5 million in cap and didn't make a move to fill that cap with at least a short term IFA d-man that could be above roster filler. Patrick Brumm was available and would've been an improvement, and he wasn't picked up. There were better 200-299 TPE dmen on the IFA scrap heap. Three prospects could've been called up. Hell, Lillie Jacobs could've been moved to defense.
Am I supposed to believe that JSS and Jepox just knew this would happen? That Owens and Gagnier would have mystical chemistry magic that would somehow keep pucks out of the net while they were together? No one can convince me that this is rational and makes sense, cmon
There were better options out there, and I'm convinced that Owens and Gagnier were brought in to just be filler while the organization tanked and waited for the next generation to grow. And no, theres nothing wrong with tanking, but you can't defend these guys as third pairing quality on a contending team with a straight face. Yet here we are!
I feel like Aaron Wilson's head will explode when he does the analytics on this pairing. There'll be some intern in the Texas Instruments Calculator office running in a circle screaming with his shirt on fire, while sparks fly from the company server room and stuff as a result of Wilson's PDO calculations or whatever stat explains this 3rd pairing's performance.
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"StadiumGambler you're just bitter!"
Look, in the grand scheme of things, Tampa Bay's season cost me like 1-2 TPE. Thats about a 0.12 on the "Toronto calling up Voloshin" scale, and a 0.09 on the "HO jobbing the Raptors out of a draft pick" scale. Actually, I was FAR more pissed at the early closing of this year's mock draft than Tampa Bay's season. I don't really hate anyone there even, as I've said several times.
Also, I'd be far more bitter at Simon T than the actual Barracuda. On this site, I imagine it would be filed under "P" for "Preaching to the choir."
"You just hate the MEME TEAM MAGIC. GO BARRACUDA!
"If TBay is a meme, this is like one of those high concept memes on reddit meant to be super trendy and inside referencing to 10 people that get the joke, but whatever. I'd cheer for TBay against like.......Calgary and Edmonton in the Cup finals? If only for variety's sake.
"You're just bitter cause Tampa did better than the Jets!"
I was hoping for merely 5th place and a wildcard spot for my boys. I think that was the expectation of the rest of the team as well. Winnipeg had its own BS too but it was far more limited. Everyone on the team is sorta close to the caliber of where they're playing, with maybe like Michael Scarn overmatched for a second line role at this point and Moreau should've played a lot worse. Tampa is just guy after guy one rung too high on the ladder knocking it out of the park for no adequately explainable reason. Its insane.
"Hi I'm JSS/Jepox and I totally saw this season coming."
No you didn't.
"You're just making this long stupid inaccurate article to get paid! You don't actually mean the hurtful things you said about my awesome
!"Yeah pretty much.
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - Jepox - 07-11-2019
Hi I'm Jepox and I totally saw this season coming.
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - SlashACM - 07-11-2019
Not mentioning me in elite goalies smh
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - Winter is Coming - 07-11-2019
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - StadiumGambler - 07-11-2019
07-11-2019, 08:56 PMSlashACM Wrote: Not mentioning me in elite goalies smh
You didn't have a particularly bad year. I think you did alright so you weren't an example of an elite goalie getting crapped on by the sim.
In fact, given that New Orleans vaunted Top 6 forward core didn't do great, Cain not crapping the bed is probably why New Orleans are in the playoffs.
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - jcfbey01 - 07-11-2019
Kristaps Ball on the blue line like
![[Image: blue-260nw-353716163.jpg]](https://image.shutterstock.com/image-vector/blue-260nw-353716163.jpg)
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - SlashACM - 07-11-2019
07-11-2019, 09:06 PMjcfbey01 Wrote: Kristaps Ball on the blue line like
Bro you're a Boomer, that's kinda cringe
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - The__Y-man__100 - 07-11-2019
Good read
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - Kalakar - 07-11-2019
It was all part of the
plan
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - Fantobens - 07-11-2019
Hot take.
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - .bojo - 07-11-2019
Still WOAT Florida team
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - WannabeFinn - 07-11-2019
HOT TAKE: Tampa gets dusted by the winner of the wild card series
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - hhh81 - 07-11-2019
07-11-2019, 09:52 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: HOT TAKE: Tampa gets dusted by the winner of the wild card series
It'd be a hot take to say Toronto will keep up with Buffalo at all. That's just not happening, but BUF > TBB certainly can and should
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - JSS - 07-12-2019
07-11-2019, 09:52 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: HOT TAKE: Tampa gets dusted by the winner of the wild card series
you done for lee if this comment bites you in the ass
RE: There Are No Rules Now: Anatomy of Tampa Bay's President's Trophy Win - WannabeFinn - 07-12-2019
07-12-2019, 12:22 AMJSS Wrote:do ur worst lol i won't care either way07-11-2019, 09:52 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: HOT TAKE: Tampa gets dusted by the winner of the wild card series
you done for lee if this comment bites you in the ass
