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S49 Trade Deadline Analysis - Muerto - 08-24-2019
TRADE DEADLINE SPECULATION
![[Image: FittingMistyBlackfly-small.gif]](https://thumbs.gfycat.com/FittingMistyBlackfly-small.gif)
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With the S49 Trade Deadline approaching, we will take a look at the SHL teams and see what each team's likely status will be at the trade deadline.
Teams that look to beef up their roster in anticipation of a playoff run are buyers.
Sellers are teams which will be looking to shed players from their roster in exchange for picks or prospects.
Teams that are doing things right and should stick to the plan will Stand Pat.
I will also consider what pieces could be available for a trade and what a likely return could be.
Disclaimer: I have no access to team trading blocks or discussions so this is all just my thoughts on what I might do if I was GMing the team! No spoilers or shifty rumor-mongering!
And now:
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BUFFALO STAMPEDE ***Buffalo sits in an odd spot right now - last season's champs are in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference but are only 1 point out of missing the playoffs entirely! The Great Lakes are no Great Shakes this season as it is possible only the divison leader will even see a post-season game.
The Stampede's biggest issue is scoring, they are the second lowest-scoring team in the East. Several players are underperforming and a shakeup to the roster might be called for.
Verdict: BUF = BUYERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
Draft Picks : Pretty sure BUF is sitting on a pile of first-round picks right now, which could be valuable bait to a tanking team looking to sell
(S36) C - Oliver König (TPE: 1136) : In the midst of regressing and not so active, Konig still has some play left in him, and could be dangled as a sweetener along with a pick to get an active player
(S33) D - Charles Walker (TPE: 1161) : Deep in regression now and a pending UFA, Walker is buried on the 3rd pairing and having a sub-par season. He's been a loyal Stampeder and I'm sure there are bonds of friendship and all that, but sometimes GMs gotta be ruthless.
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CALGARY DRAGONS ***The Dragons have been rolling this season so far, comfortably in 1st place in the West and still in the race for the President's Cup. They are rolling on all cylinders and have a strong mix of vets and high-ceiling youths on the roster. I don't think they have a lot of weaknesses in the roster. If upgrades were possible I'm sure they would consider it, but why mess with a winning formula?
Verdict: CGY = STAND PAT
Potential Trade Pieces:
Draft Picks: Generally the Dragons keep their picks and develop their prospects slowly, but if they were looking to upgrade any positions, a Draft pick would probably be part of the cost
(S43) LW - Mason Hudson (TPE: 407) : He basically doesn't play anyway
[S46] D - Oliver Klozoff (TPE: 569) : I hear this kid is a troublemaker lol
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CHICAGO SYNDICATE ***Currently sitting out of the playoffs, the Syndicate are just 1 point behind Buffalo - passing them would make Chicago the 2nd seed in the East. Apart from Kevin Hamilton and Cameron Carter II, the team is not getting huge production down the lineup, and defensive scoring is practically non-existent. They went into the season with a battle for starting goaltender between 2 rookies, and based on the numbers Tibuk Soonika has won the spot over Billy Sorokin. Longtime all-star Luke Atmey is in his last season.
Overall, this is a team that is right in the hunt but would be unlikely to advance far even if they did make the playoffs, so I doubt they'd sacrifice much of the future even if they did look to acquire a star player at the deadline. On the flipside, why tank if you have a chance to get in? You never know what might happen!
Verdict: CHI = BUYERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
[S46] Goalie - Billy Sorokin (TPE: 517) : He's young, he's active, he could be a viable backup for a team that needs some backup starts down the stretch and might need a starter soon.
(S32) LW - Luke Atmey (TPE: 1081) : If Chicago decides tanking is the way to go, Atmey could be someone shipped off to a real contender. If someone offered a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him ... who knows?
(S39) D - Fredrich Koenig (TPE: 847) : About to hit regression, and currently having a below average season, Koenig could be a piece in a package deal
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EDMONTON BLIZZARD ***The Blizz can't seem to find any traction this season, struggling with a sub-.500 record in a weak Western Conference. However, they are only 2 points out of a playoff spot. A strong push down the stretch could even see them vault into 3rd place. The team's biggest issue right now is giving up goals, as they are ranked last in the West for Goals Against. A lot of underperforming players, including their star goalie Tommy Tuck, but he is not the only one having a down season!
However, blowing the team up seems unlikely - but I wouldn't be surprised to see a little shakeup to try and find some chemistry.
Verdict: EDM = BUYERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S37) D - Sven Brokstad (TPE: 694) : Deep in regression but still under contract for another season, packaged with a draft pick he might have enough value to upgrade this position
(S38) LW - TJ Bayley (TPE: 1017) : Buried on the 4th line and not contributing a heck of a lot this season, he still has enough value that a team might be tempted to snatch him up in return for a pick or prospect
(S37) LW - Hercules Rockefeller (TPE: 1449) : Edmonton would never trade Leafs! Or would they? He's still got a high TPE count despite being in regression, but he's having a terrible season by his standards. He would probably fetch a huge return, and maybe a new surrounding could spark his play.
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HAMILTON STEELHAWKS ***This has not been a memorable season for the 'Hawks, and they are more than likely going to miss the playoffs. The future is bright at least as they have several players on the roster who are young and still far from their peak, as well as a fairly deep prospect pool.
They do also have a few aging but still serviceable players that could be enticing for other GMs who are looking to strengthen their roster - problem is, none of them are likely to bring back much other than 2nd or 3rd round picks. I think they might try to move some players out to make room for the youth movement, but really, unlikely to see any blockbusters.
Verdict: HAM = SELLERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S42) G - Geezus Kryyst (TPE: 1444) : Probably the one big piece that could bring back a fat return. A high TPE goalie who frankly is wasted on a rebuilding team, I see a team like Chicago or Los Angeles could potentially come sniffing around.
(S36) C - Yuri Boyka Jr. (TPE: 949) : A rental piece available for probably a moderate ask. Could be a decent pickup for a team looking to boost their 3rd line.
(S35) LW - Angelo Odjick (TPE: 846) : See above, but older, worse, and probably come at a cheaper price
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LOS ANGELES PANTHERS ***A solid mix of aging vets and up-and-coming youth, the Panthers are not quite rebuilding but not quite contenders. They currently are tied for the last playoff spot in the West, but the hold is precarious and one bad losing streak could bury their dreams quickly. On the other hand, one big winning streak could cement their position and see them playing some playoff games.
The Panthers are playign decent defensively, but they cannot score, they have the fewest Goals For in the West, so if they want to make some noise, they are going to want to find someone who can contribute in a big way offensively!
Verdict: LAP = BUYERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S40) C - Florence Clijsters (TPE: 991) : About to hit regression, but with enough TPE to still be decent for a couple more seasons, Clijsters could be packaged with a pick to try and bring in a more offensive player.
(S44) Center - Shouta Aizawa (TPE: 712) : Falling behind younger players and dropping down the depth chart, Aizaway could still be intriguing for a team looking for a 3rd liner, and is young enough that regression is not an issue. Could be moved for a retiring or pending UFA with more scoring upside.
(S36) G - Evgueni Marmeladov (TPE: 759) : Even though goaltending is not LAP's major weakness, if they could upgrade their goalie (see comments under Hamilton Steelhawks) at not too big a price, it might be worthwhile to try!
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MANHATTAN RAGE ***The Rage have bounced back from their dismal S48 and are having a strong season, 12 games above .500 and scoring in bunches - they have the most Goals For in the league. They've already made one big move this season, bringing in top talent Herb Roberts to beef up an already impressive roster. Currently no players have a negative _+/- rating, so they are strong up and down the lineup. They have a bit of a goaltending battle going on, but both goalies are performing well so it's not a bad problem to have!
Verdict: MAN = STAND PAT
Potential Trade Pieces:
Draft Picks: The Rage haven't had a first round pick in like 6 seasons, why start now?
[S46] Right Wing - Backdoor Barnacle (TPE: 234) : Less than a minute per game and yet he's a +1! Obviously a hidden gem of a talent. Return comparable to the McZ trade, no doubt,
(S43) Left Wing - Luke Thomason (TPE: 1468) : Just so he could have fun with his trade trees!
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MINNESOTA CHIEFS ***Hot Take Right Here: The Chiefs will miss the playoffs despite heroic efforts from GOD, Berezin, and Primeau. Too many holes in this roster and too many non-contributors offensively. Honestly embrace the tank and sell off the few good players you still have while their value is still high.
Verdict: MIN = SELLERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S38) RW - Bobby Watson (TPE: 1533) : Would probably recoup at least one of those 1st round picks
(S42) D - Buck Maverick (TPE: 728) : Young enough to be tempting for a team looking to boost up their 3rd pairing, probably a 2nd round pick (or a reddit 3rd)
(S43) RW - Eero Niemi (TPE: 828) : There's a player here, again, could be tempting for a team looking to boost their 3rd line, probably a 2nd round pick back.
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NEW ENGLAND WOLFPACK ***Everything's coming together for the Pack this season, all lines are clicking and Johannes Leitner is having a McBride season. Currently in first place in the league and setting the pace for the President's Trophy. They made a bold move earlier shipping out Roberts to make room for Noah Konn, it seems to be working out for them so far! No glaring weaknesses and a lot of youth here.
Verdict: NEW = STAND PAT
Potential Trade Pieces:
Prospects: It may be tough for any of the SMJHL prospects to crack this lineup, shifting them away fro future draft picks might not be a terrible idea.
(S38) RW - Hugh Manatee (TPE: 125) : Oh the
Draft Picks: I dunno, for shits and giggles I guess.
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NEW ORLEANS SPECTERS ***NOLA is currently holding down 2nd place in the West, on the strength of strong defense and goaltending - they have the fewest Goals Against in the conference, despite being average in Goals For. The team in as interesting mix of vets and youth, and have already made one big move, acquiring 'Lil Manius from Winnipeg in a massive deal. However, if they want to try and compete with Calgary to get to the Finals, they might not be finished making moves yet!
Verdict: NOR = BUYERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S36) D - Karl Hefeweizen (TPE: 772) : An aging player who doesn't get much ice time, could be packaged up to upgrade depth.
(S36) D - Clint Eastwood (TPE: 791) : Same but in green
(S42) C - Soren Kierkegaard (TPE: 581) : Would a team make a leap of faith to acquire him, or would they shy away with fear and trembling? Hockey is not a problem to be solved, but a reality to be experienced!
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SAN FRANCISCO PRIDE ***Every season one team is cursed by Simon T to inexpicably suck - last season the Rage had the hex, this season it is the Pride's turn. They are mired in last place, seem incapable of turning around their season, and have seen almost every player underperform. The patient side of me says, this is an aberration, stick with the plan and it will turn around next season. And, despite it all, the rest of the West seems reluctant to make a run, so a playoff spot is still attainable with a strong finish.
Verdict: SFP = STAND PAT
Potential Trade Pieces:
Draft Picks: A 2nd or 3rd round pick this draft could be tempting as it will likely be a high pick in those rounds. Nabbing a stud player from a tanking team would probably cost sucha pick.
(S41) RW - Daniel Karlsson (TPE: 1348) : San Fran acquired him earlier this season in exchange for a pick. The Pride continue to struggle even after adding a high-caliber player - given that he is retiring, the team may look to try and recoup their pick from a contending team.
(S36) D - Isak Ødegård (TPE: 1481) : Time is the enemy for Isak, regression looms and the window for another Cup may be narrowing. A pending UFA, could be used as bait to bring in a pick or an active prospect ... or both
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TAMPA BAY BARRACUDA ***Last season's darlings who won the President's Trophy are finding that doing it twice is not as easy as you might think. They are in a fight for the final playoff spot in the East, as they seem destined to finish 4th in their conference. They are struggling to keep the puck out of their net as Goaltender Blue has not lived up to the standard he set last season. Their roster is still very young overall and perhaps this type of adversity is what the team needs - if they can fight their way into a playoff spot, everything starts fresh on a clean slate and anything can happen!
They have some aging players that could find themselves part of minor moves, but I don't think sacrificing the future is the right move right now so unlikely to see any prospects or young players shipped out for superstars.
Verdict: TBB = STAND PAT
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S31) LW - Trevor Wilson (TPE: 901) : There's still a bit of life in this old dog, and TBB could use an upgrade here. Packaged up could bring a decent pick in return.
(S42) D - Maui (TPE: 974) : Maui's good, right? Wrong! He's secretly bad despite what all the statistics say. The Cudas could con a team into overpaying for him, and are shady enough to do just that!
[S46] Center - Matt Kholin (TPE: 868) : A player with a bright future - unfortunately he's having a tough season. For Tampa Bay to acquire an all-star caliber scorer, he'd probably be part of the asking price.
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TEXAS RENEGADES ***The Renegades are having a bizarro season - the more they try to tank, the more games they win. Their position is far from secure, but right now they are ahead of everyone but Calgary and New Orleans.
Logic says embrace the tank and shed the last few valuable veterans remaining and stock up for the future. Illogic says, fuck it, roll the dice and see what happens! Nobody else seems to want that playoff spot! Haha but seriously, embrace the tank.
Verdict: TEX = SELLERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S37) RW - Logan Jensen (TPE: 882) : Given regression, his value isn't going to get any higher. But a good old-fashioned trade auction between 2 or more contending teams could bring up the value!
(S43) Right Wing - Vladislav Konstantin (TPE: 848) : A decent 3rd line player, could fetch a pick or a prospect from a contending team.
(S45) D - Samuel Jalopski (TPE: 571) : A slow developer, but with youth on his side he could still be a 3rd pairing upgrade on some teams.
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TORONTO NORTH STARS ***A bad team with not a lot going for it at the moment, apart from a few promising prospects, a rookie goalie embracing the challenge of being a starter, and of course, the amazing Mikhail Lokitonov. Other than that, though, it's a lot of aged-out vets past their best-before date and more than a couple players who never lived up to their potential.
They might as well try to get what they can for what they have with any value!
Verdict: TOR = SELLERS
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S36) RW - Dionýz Vyskoč (TPE: 814) : Could be a boost to a team looking to solidify their 3rd line.
(S33) RW - Chris York (TPE: 731) : Retiring player probably wouldn't get more than a 3rd round pick but hey, that's something
(S38) LW - Lyndis Vakarian (TPE: 988) : Probably a tough player to move considering the history, but the value will never be higher. A second round pick in this draft or maybe a future first is not unreasonable for a player who can put up decent numbers.
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WEST KENDALL PLATOON ***The Toonza are having a strong season winning 22 of 33 games to this point. They are within striking distance of the Wolfpack, and seem assured of a playoff spot regardless. They have an admirable Goal Differential of +32 and have given up the second-fewest goals in the league. A good mix of all-star vets and fast-developing youngsters. Really no need to make any drastic changes as they already have a decent chance to win the cup ... again
Verdict: WKP = STAND PAT
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S37) G - Beaujeaux Biscuit (TPE: 1126) : What's he ever done anyway
(S31) LW - Alex Light (TPE: 1030) : Never amounted to anything
(S45) Defense - Nat Emerson (TPE: 879) : He has a -2!! Blasphemy!! Off with his head!
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WINNIPEG JETS ***The Jets are taking advantage of a weak West and currently hold down the last playoff spot - but they are only 1 point up on the Chiefs and 2 ahead of Edmonton. They made a big move sending away Manius but it hasn't seemed to affect them too badly so far. They have some underperforming players down their lineup bu the solid play of the ageless Visser and a decent showing by goaltender Leblanc so far has kept them in the hunt. They have a decent stable of young players ready to move up the roster.
Verdict: WPG = STAND PAT
Potential Trade Pieces:
(S43) LW - Ignatius Blunt (TPE: 940) : Despite underperforming so far this season, Blunt has shown some scoring touch and good benefit a team looking to increase their offense
[S45] Goalie - Vivian Leblanc (TPE: 757) : Not great, not terrible - an upgrade in net could give the Jets a fighting chance to go far in the playoffs
[S46] Center - Michael Scarn (TPE: 939) : Struggling this season, Scarn still has a bright future and could be the ask if the Jets go star-hunting at the deadline.
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And there you have it!
Undoubtedly Trade Deadline will be exciting and I'm sure there will be many Insider's tweeting out breaking trades as they happen, so stay tuned this upcoming Monday!
Thanks for reading!
RE: S49 Trade Deadline Analysis - ml002 - 08-24-2019
Great article as always Muerto!
RE: S49 Trade Deadline Analysis - Zoone16 - 08-24-2019
@Muerto Nice article but....
Alex Light has an NTC!
RE: S49 Trade Deadline Analysis - Blastmeaway - 08-24-2019
Great article, only question/statement for NOLA would be you say our defense is doing a great job, but we should look to trade one of our defenders?
RE: S49 Trade Deadline Analysis - Kalakar - 08-24-2019
Quote:[S46] Center - Matt Kholin (TPE: 868) : A player with a bright future - unfortunately he's having a tough season. For Tampa Bay to acquire an all-star caliber scorer, he'd probably be part of the asking price.
Kholin on the block confirmed. MonkaS
RE: S49 Trade Deadline Analysis - Muerto - 08-25-2019
08-24-2019, 09:07 PMBlastmeaway Wrote: Great article, only question/statement for NOLA would be you say our defense is doing a great job, but we should look to trade one of our defenders?
I'm not saying they SHOULD trade a defender, I'm saying those particular defenders could be potential trade pieces given their age and spot on the depth chart. If you want to improve, you have to give up something, and these two look likeliest to be potential pieces.
RE: S49 Trade Deadline Analysis - charlieconway - 08-25-2019
This is a great article, nice work.
RE: S49 Trade Deadline Analysis - Blastmeaway - 08-25-2019
08-25-2019, 02:02 AMMuerto Wrote:08-24-2019, 09:07 PMBlastmeaway Wrote: Great article, only question/statement for NOLA would be you say our defense is doing a great job, but we should look to trade one of our defenders?
I'm not saying they SHOULD trade a defender, I'm saying those particular defenders could be potential trade pieces given their age and spot on the depth chart. If you want to improve, you have to give up something, and these two look likeliest to be potential pieces.
That’s fair.