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Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - fishy - 09-04-2019
1500 words, good to be graded
Building off of what @puolivalmiste did a little while ago, I thought I'd take a look at how the S49 draftees fared in earning TPE over the season. From this, I'll project where each player would go if TPE was the only factor in the S50 draft; look at steals and busts; analyze biggest risers and fallers; give a position by position breakdown of the S50 SHL prospect pool (only counting rookies who were drafted); and look at which teams bombed the draft or did well.
Pick by Pick
To begin, here was the order in which players were selected. Most of the selections are separated by round, except for the last 12 or so players, which is when every team but Anaheim and Lethbridge were passing on their selections. In total, I counted 90 players taken in the S49 SMJHL draft. Their current TPE as per their player page on September 4th are included beside them.
Pick Team Player Position TPE
1 Kelowna Ryan Shepard F 262
2 Colorado Vorian Ateides F 257
3 Lethbridge Akira Ren D 256
4 Montreal Bobby Lane F 265
5 Lethbridge Disisde Dayudie D 245
6 Lethbridge Luca Veccelli F 251
7 Montreal Joseph Weston F 214
8 St. Louis James Ronlain F 231
9 Anaheim Ivan Maximus F 253
10 Vancouver Marcus Ohlsson F 249
11 Kelowna Berg Svensson D 203
12 Colorado Lee Samson D 196
13 Montreal Phineas Gold F 252
14 Anchorage Augustus Wang D 240
15 Anchorage Samuel Michaud D 252
16 St. Louis Yamamoto Mitsuharu F 226
17 Vancouver Marcus Weiser F 214
18 Halifax Adam Barron D 259
19 Montreal Zbigniew Pokrywka D 238
20 St. Louis Aron Hernadivic F 252
21 Kelowna Gylfi Eriksson F 240
22 Colorado Patrick Miller F 182
23 Lethbridge Jakob Hamr D 205
24 Kelowna Rob Blake G 161
25 Kelowna Partario Scarangella F 200
26 Montreal Mitchell Maverick G 240
27 Vancouver Bjorn Leppanen D 249
28 Colorado Nathanial Voltguin F 163
29 Anaheim Ursin Zimmermann D 208
30 St. Louis Colton Strudwick F 174
31 Kelowna K. Kaspert... F 249
32 Kelowna Andre Barbashev II F 237
33 Anchorage Ian Venables G 245
34 Montreal Tom Fiddler F 217
35 Anchorage Daniel Bischoff F 239
36 St. Louis Shiqa Vitalievich G 199
37 Montreal Ricky Bobby F 247
38 Montreal Capp Hatter F 185
39 St. Louis Sasha Dangelchek F 188
40 Lethbridge Face of the Franchise F 183
41 Colorado Daniel Kuster 155
42 Lethbridge Adam Foley 155
43 Halifax Stacy Jefferson Jr. D 172
44 Lethbridge Niklas Fuhrberg F 210
45 Anchorage Jay Reeves F 204
46 Kelowna Alex Ranch D 190
47 Vancouver Justin Womack F 193
48 Lethbridge Johnny Patey F 207
49 Anaheim Kevin Robinson F 238
50 Montreal Alexei Rykov F 243
51 Detroit Ben Collins F 169
52 Colorado Henrik Osterman F 250
53 Halifax Karl Krashwagen F 222
54 Lethbridge Alec Sullivan 155
55 Anchorage Rhet Ward F 189
56 Halifax Suzuki Namokato F 204
57 Vancouver Francois Breton F 213
58 Colorado FN Last-Name F 207
59 Anchorage Justin Roy F 175
60 St. Louis Nikitnory McCrosbov F 168
61 Detroit Landon Flynn F 226
62 Colorado Georgy Gorbachenko D 196
63 Halifax Monty Montgomery G 173
64 Lethbridge Jake Miller 155
65 Halifax Viel Veelio 155
66 Montreal Ryan Daly 155
67 Vancouver Pass
68 Detroit Daren Loop 155
69 Anaheim Jose Ferreira F 187
70 St. Louis Richard Hurtz F 170
71 Colorado Axel Caderoth 155
72 Lethbridge Pekka Grande 155
73 Montreal Antti Halonen 155
74 Anaheim Rath McLeod D 178
75 St. Louis Blake Phoenix F 163
76 Lethbridge Jiddy Jimbo 155
77 Anaheim Tommy Parker 155
78 St. Louis Tucker Centennial D 171
79 Lethbridge Khal Valhalla 155
80 Anaheim Angle Vladimir 155
81 Lethbridge Manboobs Harden 155
82 Anaheim John Hawke F 159
83 Lethbridge Mathias Strange 155
84 Anaheim Jacob Riley D 183
85 Lethbridge Jack Wilson D 207
86 Anaheim Mister Clean 155
87 Lethbridge Dick Trickle 155
88 Anaheim Spanky Lugnuts 155
89 Lethbridge Grey Butkus 155
90 Anaheim James Hendricks F 202
If drafted based off of TPE Rankings
Here I thought I'd look at where each player finished in TPE ranking, and compare it to their draft position to determine if they were "risers" or "fallers", and use this to determine if a player was a "steal" or a "bust". For this, I didn't include anyone who was still at 155 TPE. I also didnt include IA players, as the odds of them getting drafted and doing something are slim.
SHL SMJHL Player Rise/Fall
Pick Pick
1 4 Bobby Lane 3
2 1 Ryan Shepard -1
3 18 Adam Barron 15
4 2 Vorian Ateides -2
5 3 Akira Ren -2
6 9 Ivan Maximus 3
7 15 Samuel Michaud 8
8 13 Phineas Gold 5
9 20 Aron Hernadivic 11
10 6 Luca Veccelli -4
11 52 Henrik Osterman 41
12 31 Kalevolaripaavo K. 19
13 27 Bjorn Leppanen 14
14 10 Marcus Ohlsson -4
15 37 Ricky Bobby 22
16 33 Ian Venables 17
17 5 Disisde Dayudie -12
18 50 Alexei Rykov 32
19 14 Augustus Wang -5
20 21 Gylfi Eriksson 1
21 26 Mitchell Maverick 5
22 35 Daniel Bischoff 13
23 49 Kevin Robinson 26
24 19 Zbigniew Pokrywka -5
25 32 Andre Barbashev II 7
26 8 James Ronlain -18
27 61 Landon Flynn 34
28 16 Yamamoto Mitsuharu -12
29 53 Karl Krashwagen 24
30 34 Tom Fiddler 4
31 7 Joseph Weston -24
32 17 Marcus Weiser -15
33 57 Francois Breton 24
34 44 Niklas Fuhrberg 10
35 29 Ursin Zimmermann -6
36 58 First-Name Last-Name 22
37 85 Jack Wilson 48
38 48 Johnny Patey 10
39 23 Jakob Hamr -16
40 45 Jay Reeves 5
41 56 Suzuki Namokato 15
42 11 Berg Svensson -31
43 90 James Hendricks 47
44 36 Shiqa Vitalievich -8
45 62 Georgy Gorbachenko 17
46 12 Lee Samson -34
47 47 Justin Womack 0
48 39 Sasha Dangelchek -9
49 84 Jacob Riley 35
50 40 Face of the Franchise -10
51 63 Monty Montgomery 12
52 51 Ben Collins -1
Takeaways
The top 10 projected SHL picks were all selected in the top 20 of the SMJHL
Shepard was a great pick at 1, coming in as the second highest TPE Earner. Lane was also a great pick
Barron took a huge leap up to the top 3
Highest Risers
Player Rise/Fall Team
Jack Wilson 48 Lethbridge
James Hendricks 47 Anaheim
Henrik Osterman 41 Colorado
Jacob Riley 35 Anaheim
Landon Flynn 34 Detroit
Alexei Rykov 32 Montreal
Kevin Robinson 26 Anaheim
Karl Krashwagen 24 Halifax
Francois Breton 24 Vancouver
Ricky Bobby 22 Montreal
First-NameLast-Name 22 Colorado
Anaheim found some solid diamonds in the rough, hitting on multiple of their late round flyers
St. Louis, Anchorage, and Kelowna didn't find any underrated players
Bobby, Rykov, and Osterman all jumped up to become solid potential secound rounders, with the first round on the horizon
Biggest fallers
Player Rise/Fall Team
Lee Samson -34 Colorado
Berg Svensson -31 Kelowna
Joseph Weston -24 Montreal
James Ronlain -18 St. Louis
Jakob Hamr -16 Lethbridge
Marcus Weiser -15 Vancouver
Disisde Dayudie -12 Lethbridge
Yamamoto Mitsuharu -12 St. Louis
Face of the Franchise -10 Lethbridge
Sasha Dangelchek -9 St. Louis
St. Louis didn't find any diamonds in the rough, but they sure found some coal. Same with Lethbridge. Time for a new scouting department for these teams?
4 teams didn't reach for any prospects (Anaheim, Anchorage, Detroit, and Montreal)
Anaheim found some underrated studs, and didn't reach for anybody. That's some solid drafting.
Top 4 TPE Goalies
Ian Venables 245
Mitchell Maverick 240
Shiqa Vitalievich 199
Monty Montgomery 173
Venables and Maverick are in a heated race to be the first goalie selected in the SHL draft
Top 10 Defenseman
Adam Barron 259
Akira Ren 256
Samuel Michaud 252
Bjorn Leppanen 249
Disisde Dayudie 245
Augustus Wang 240
Zbigniew Pokrywka 238
Ursin Zimmermann 208
Jack Wilson 207
Jakob Hamr 205
The top 10 defenseman can be broken into tiers, with Leppanen making up the last of tier 1, followed by dayudie to Pokrywka, and then zimmermann to hamr in the third tier.
Top 10 Forwards
Bobby Lane 265
Ryan Shepard 262
Vorian Ateides 257
Ivan Maximus 253
Phineas Gold 252
Aron Hernadivic 252
Luca Veccelli 251
Henrik Osterman 250
Marcus Ohlsson 249
K. Kaspertommevisnapuu 249
Lane and Shepard will likely be duking it out to be the first player selected. After that, it's all just preference, with only 8 TPE differentiating between the 3rd and 10th ranked players.
Analysis done
Hope you enjoyed! 1500 words
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - slothfacekilla - 09-04-2019
Looks like you put in a lot of work, well done!
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - TnlAstatine - 09-04-2019
this just confirms sloth does indeed suck
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - ProjectSaint - 09-04-2019
Erm, just for correction, Daniel Kuster (Colorado) has 212 TPE @"jfisherr"
Kuster: http://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=98293
Otherwise, nice read
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - Samsung virtual assistant - 09-04-2019
Guess i gotta do the PGSes so i take the lead
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - charlieconway - 09-04-2019
Interesting read, thank you.
Glad I could provide some value for Halifax's 2nd round pick, given I was their only player taken in the first four rounds. We got a couple of great picks in the later rounds though.
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - fishy - 09-04-2019
09-04-2019, 05:25 PMProjectSaint Wrote: Erm, just for correction, Daniel Kuster (Colorado) has 212 TPE @"jfisherr"
Kuster: http://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=98293
Otherwise, nice read
Hey whoops my bad
I just got all the numbers off of the player links and if they weren’t updated I assumed they were 155. Sorry!
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - puolivalmiste - 09-05-2019
Great work. Hopefully at some point we could get updates processed at same time (tho when done manually i don't see that happening) to have list that has less variables, or maybe I need to go to update threads to look at what players TPE will have.
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - hhh81 - 09-05-2019
Put some respect on our names. Colorado's two 6th round picks are both among the biggest risers in the draft.
Not a mention of our hits or our misses. Disrespectful!
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - fishy - 09-05-2019
09-05-2019, 09:44 AMhhh81 Wrote: Put some respect on our names. Colorado's two 6th round picks are both among the biggest risers in the draft.
Not a mention of our hits or our misses. Disrespectful!
I literally give Osterman a shout out in the highest risers section lmao
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - Carpy48 - 09-05-2019
Nice job!
However, there have been some FA signings after the draft too, so don't completely ignore them while looking into who might go where in the SHL draft. Some of them have caught up quite a bit meanwhile. Obviously they don't fit into your list here.
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - charlieconway - 09-05-2019
09-05-2019, 10:23 AMCarpy48 Wrote: Nice job!
However, there have been some FA signings after the draft too, so don't completely ignore them while looking into who might go where in the SHL draft. Some of them have caught up quite a bit meanwhile. Obviously they don't fit into your list here.
Yeah, Urawa is pretty active despite joining after the draft. Big TPE, big $$$ earnings (a good writer too).
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - Carpy48 - 09-05-2019
09-05-2019, 10:28 AMcharlieconway Wrote:09-05-2019, 10:23 AMCarpy48 Wrote: Nice job!Yeah, Urawa is pretty active despite joining after the draft. Big TPE, big $$$ earnings (a good writer too).
However, there have been some FA signings after the draft too, so don't completely ignore them while looking into who might go where in the SHL draft. Some of them have caught up quite a bit meanwhile. Obviously they don't fit into your list here.
That was one of the people I was thinking of. And of course my favorite Lethbridge backup goalie @KlusteR
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - fishy - 09-05-2019
09-05-2019, 10:37 AMCarpy48 Wrote:09-05-2019, 10:28 AMcharlieconway Wrote: Yeah, Urawa is pretty active despite joining after the draft. Big TPE, big $$$ earnings (a good writer too).
That was one of the people I was thinking of. And of course my favorite Lethbridge backup goalie @KlusteR
Hey!
Thanks for the input, honestly I was just too lazy to go through the FA's that joined after the draft so I was just doing a comparison of players that were drafted. i know there were a few studs that joined after the draft and didn't mean to ignore them, laziness is just a bitch lmao
RE: Looking back at the S49 SMJHL Draft - slothfacekilla - 09-05-2019
09-05-2019, 04:53 AMpuolivalmiste Wrote: Hopefully at some point we could get updates processed at same time
