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Playoff Matchups Round 3 - Printable Version

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Playoff Matchups Round 3 - Naosu - 09-08-2019

Well we're halfway with two rounds done. I was working and unable to post a matchup outlook for round 2 before it started, as will probably be the case for the finals. Team stats included will still be from the regular season for better sample size and apparently eliminated teams are removed from playoff stats. I was 0/2 in the first round, let's see how this one goes.

#1  Falcons Detroit Falcons (31-13-6) vs #6  Militia Montreal Militia (24-20-6)

Falcons
G F/A: 132.64% (1st)
Power play: 23.50% (2nd)
Penalty Kill: 78.77% (7th)
SH F/A: 122.06% (1st)
FO%: 51.65% (2nd)

Militia
G F/A: 101.35% (4th)
Power play: 18.34% (8th)
Penalty Kill: 80.66% (4th)
SH F/A: 91.06% (10th)
FO%: 43.57% (10th)

Surprisingly, Montreal won the season series between these teams 4-2. All of their wins were in regulation as well, meaning 4 of Detroit's 13 regulation losses were from Montreal. Goals scored however, were tied at 18-18. This series could be a lot closer than most are expecting. Montreal comes into this series after a hard fought battle against Halifax, coming back from being down 2-3. Detroit is coming off a 4-2 series win against Anchorage that saw three overtime games. This series features two top goalies from the regular season, Emiko Spector (DET) and Mike Hunt (MTL). Spector finished with .893 SV% and 2.53GAA, while Hunt finished with .899SV% and 2.81GAA. While the series could be a goaltending duel, I think the key factor for this series will be on Montreal's group of rookies. They had a great regular season and previous round, but can they keep it up against the best team on paper? Overall I feel like Detroit will get the job done, but Montreal will give them a hard battle much like the series against Anchorage.

My predicted outcome: Detroit in 7  


#2  Knights Kelowna Knights (28-16-6) vs #5  Lions Lethbridge Lions (26-21-3)

Knights
G F/A: 117.45% (2nd)
Power play: 20.47% (4th)
Penalty Kill: 79.10% (6th)
SH F/A: 102.26% (3rd)
FO%: 51.58% (3rd)

Lions
G F/A: 94.64% (6th)
Power play: 20.71 (3rd)
Penalty Kill: 83.59% (1st)
SH F/A: 91.46% (9th)
FO%: 50.71% (4th)

The season series between these two went to Kelowna 4-2, with goals scored at 28-18 also for the Knights. Both teams have had a quick turnaround and are looking to make the finals after some terrible stuff in the previous season. Kelowna with one of the worst seasons ever, and Lethbridge suffering through an inactive GM. Kelowna is coming into this matchup on a 3 game winning streak after beating St.Louis 4-2. Lethbridge is on a 2 game streak, disposing of Vancouver in 5 games. Kelowna had a single one goal game in their series, whereas Lethbridge had 3 so it was a lot closer with Vancouver than it appears. Both teams had their special teams see a lot higher rates than the regular season with the except of Lethbridge's PK which was 85.00% last round vs their 83.59% regular season. Kelowna's PK was sky high at 93.33% last round vs 79.10% regular season. Will Lethbridge's obscene amount of penalties eventually burn them, or will Kelowna's PK drop back down to earth first? I think percentages are going to be the biggest factor in this series. Kelowna is coming in with some of the highest 5v5 SH% and Lethbridge is riding some high overall SH% from the regular season, and even moreso from the previous round. Both of these teams have a date with the law of averages, but whether it be this series, next series, or next season, who knows? In the end, I have a clear bias in this series and have to give it to Kelowna.

My predicted outcome: Kelowna in 6