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*roastpuff* · 01-24-2020, 03:42 AM

S51 International Ice Hockey Federation World Junior Championship Pre-Tournament Preview
By Jan Parker Peters
For Superprospects

First Media Bonus - 3351 Words - Ready for Grading

Hello dear Superprospects readers! Welcome to our long-awaited World Junior Championship Preview feature which will go over all the teams playing within the tournament and talk about their strengths, weaknesses, and chances at a medal. This year’s tournament is a massive one, with ten teams competing for junior supremacy after finishing the IIHF senior tournaments not long ago. Many S53 rookies are included in this year’s tournament, which is a bit of a discrepancy compared to prior years. This happened due to some scheduling issues, and also injects some exciting young blood into the mix. Some countries have been absorbed into others due to lack of players, and some are barely hanging on to their roster.

This preview contains some projected lines and player ratings which might be inaccurate compared to the line combinations preferred by the General Managers and coaches of each team, and may be out of date due to the vagaries of player data input into the sim. The data was also laboriously collected over several days and may be out of date by the time of publication. Nevertheless, the general trends seen here should remain mostly accurate, and should provide the reader with a sense of how the team will fare compared to a competitor.

Some general conclusions regarding relative strengths of the various teams can be gleaned after analyzing the data can be seen in these three charts below.

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First of all, the two prospect teams are Davids to the Goliaths of the established teams with the exception of maybe Team World and Finland. Secondly, USA, UCORCAL and DACH stand a tier above the rest, with all four of their forward lines being very strong in terms of average TPE and skill. British Isles, Canada and Sweden form a second tier below them, and World and Finland round out the group with the weakest forward group off the bunch. Most of the established nations have very strong first lines and second lines, with the third and fourth lines being a weakness. The exceptions are, again, USA, UCORCAL and DACH which have very strong third lines, and fourth lines that range from above-average to excellent. Finland is a one-line team, which will hurt them severely as the five-hundred pound gorillas of the tournament will feast on the weaker secondary, tertiary and quaternary lines when playing a matchup game.

The two prospect teams are unfortunately plucky ducklings swimming in a very small barrel while someone holds a gatling gun above them ready to shoot. They are outmatched by most of the other teams, and do not stand a chance against the Big Three. Some interesting results have come from the pre-tournament exhibition games however, as the two prospect teams have managed to notch two wins each. Prospect NA managed to win 5-1 against Team World(!), and 3-0 nothing against DACH(!!!); Prospect World beat out UCORCAL 4-3(!) and Prospect NA 4-0. All hope might not be lost yet - with some creative line shuffling and optimizations, these guys might find a way to prove that they are more than the sum of their TPEs.

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Looking at the defensive pairings of the teams, there seems to be more parity - except for Finland and the two prospect squads. Canada has the strongest back end, followed by British Isles, World and then DACH/UCORCAL tying for 4th place. Sweden and the USA form a 2nd tier, but with Sweden holding an advantage through the benefit of it’s stronger 2nd pairing. Finland and the two prospect squads are about even, which is honestly quite surprising.

Several teams opted to ice a 4th pair instead of more forwards, probably due to active/inactive player choices, and it will be interesting to see how that will impact ice time and results for the players. Canada’s three pairs of defencemen are almost equal to one another, which will make this group very hard to penetrate by opposing forwards, and might result in lower scoring games against Team Canada.

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Looking at the netminders of the tournament, several pairings stand out. DACH and British Isles both boast a pair of capped 425TPE goalies, which means that no matter who they put in the net their team will have a great chance of winning. Finland’s one strength is in goal, with a 425TPE goalie, and Canada also boasts the same albeit with a weaker backup. UCORCAL, USA and Sweden form a third tier, with starting goalies around 300TPE, and then the two prospect teams bring up the rear with brand new goalies - although one of them, A Jobin, has proven to be a tenacious netminder and posted a 55-save(!) shutout versus Team DACH in the exhibition round. A goaltender can steal a game for your team, and that’s exactly what he did.

This section provided a good analysis of the teams compared to one another, but let’s dive into deeper detail and take a look at the rosters and possible line construction of each team.

Without further ado, here are the ten teams competing for this year’s World Junior Championship:

TEAM PROSPECT WORLD Shl

A bit of an unusual team, this team was created to give those S53 prospects that were not selected by their home nation a chance to participate in World Juniors. This gives them a very large disadvantage in that their highest player does not break 180TPE, and that the roster construction is a bit unbalanced due to the slightly haphazard way that player creation works. Several wingers are forced to play out of their natural positions, including on defence, and the team is lacking in natural centers and defencemen. The top line of Weiss, Wagner and Harrington is a credible threat, and will shoulder most of the scoring responsibility of this team.

The World Prospects defence is looking very thin, with Kostitsyn and Sulfurgold - both wingers - being forced to play out of position on defence to make a third pairing. Wartooth is probably the best defenceman on this squad, with the rest being very low in TPE, even for newly created players, and will be tasked with the huge role of shutting down the other teams’ top lines while also carrying New Player around. Hopefully one of the goalies can stay hot and help this team pull out some incredible wins versus the talent that will be facing them - that’s the only hope that they really have. Godspeed, Jerry Huuveri and Jason Voorhees, both of whom are first-time goalies and are going to be most likely peppered with pucks.

TEAM PROSPECT NORTH AMERICA Shl

Similar to Team Prospect World but for Canada and United States, this team has a couple of bonuses - they don’t have a shortage of centers, and they have enough defencemen to ice a proper line-up. In fact, they have a surfeit of centers, and have a bit of luxury in that regard. The lines are better balanced, and on paper they have a little more of a fighting chance versus the other teams. They still have the same issue in that their best players don’t crack 180TPE, and they’re basically there to get pummeled, but a couple of wild cards up their sleeve might change that for a game or two.

Jobin, their starting goalie, might prove to be the difference. He has impressed so far in the exhibition round showings and posted a 55-save shutout against the big guns of Team DACH - incredible performance. Definitely someone to keep an eye on in the future. Kanoff and Chalut have potential as scoring offensive defenceman, as they are both in a three-way-tie with Ethan Price for the team lead in points at 6 points apiece. Mars Vendetta, their enforcer forward, might prove to be a problem though, and one that the GM of Team Prospect North America should resolve quickly. There is no place in today’s game for that kind of player, and the fact is that he is dragging down the rest of the team as they desperately try to keep their heads above water.

TEAM USA Usa

One of the Big Nations, Team USA is one of the contenders for the medal rounds. They have a fourth line that is significantly better over the other teams’ fourth lines, and their second and third lines could be first lines on other nations. Line for line, this is the best forward squad in the tournament, and will prove to be a handful for the defencemen of other countries to handle. Their own defence is unfortunately not as good a grouping as their forwards, and outside of the first pair, are a definite step below every other nation besides the prospect teams. Their goalies are also a sore point in terms of overall quality, and might prove to be the chink in their armor that turns fatal.

During the exhibition round, Cal Clucker has stood out as the highest scoring defenceman in the tournament with a whopping 15 points (4-11-15) to his name, and there are a few more members in the USA squad who are also high up on the leaderboards. I’m not sure if they have a chance to go all the way to the gold medal, but they definitely are a team to watch out for, and I would say have a good chance of fighting for the bronze medal at least.

TEAM BRITISH ISLES Ireland

If Team USA was extremely strong at forward, the reverse is true for the British Isles team - they are very strong in goal with a tandem of del Vecchio and Doyle, have a strong defense with three good pairings, and have an above-average group of forwards. With a clear step down between each line, BI should look to develop their talent in the future to bolster their forward corps. The defense is solid, with only the third pair falling behind the other stronger teams, and the goaltenders are probably the best in the tournament. Look for this team to play a defensive game that stifles opposing attacks, and for them to exploit any mistakes made by the other side.

Tom Fiddler and Kenny Creller stand out in the forward group with very respectable showings on the Top 10 leaderboards, while Abel Skinner tied for the 2nd best defenceman in the exhibition round behind Cal Clutterbuck with 2-5-8 boxcar stats. Elizabeth Doyle has a good Goals Against Average, but her save percentage is not as high as one would hope in this tournament. If she gets hot, or if del Vecchio proves his prior performance, this tem has a good chance of making it all the way.

TEAM FINLAND Finland

Desperately clinging on to its national identity - that is how I would describe Team Finland as this point in time. Barely able to field a full line-up, Finland is a moderate step above the prospect teams, and the showings in the exhibition rounds so far have been consistent with that opinion with a record of 3-6, with their wins coming against the two prospect teams and one win over UCORCAL. The first line is solid, but the second, third, and fourth lines are barely different from each other, and a small step above new prospects at the most. The defence pairings are lacking, to say the least - if you have a brand new pair of S53 rookies playing on your first pairing, your team might be having some trouble keeping the puck out of the net. Goaltending is a minor bright spot, with Goodman being a 425TPE netminder, and Sarinen Jr is making a name for himself as an up-and-coming star in the net.

Jaska Seppala proved to be an incredibly efficient points scorer during the medal round, with a 3.29 P/20 over 9 games, and the newly introduced pairing of Timonen and Barkov did relatively well, all things considered. Sarinen Jr. did yeoman’s work, facing a monster number of shots and still giving up relatively few goals all things considered. With a few more infusions of talent, Finland might be able to regain its footing. But they may not have too much longer.

TEAM CANADA Canada

Team Canada, as always, is a perennial contender and threat to be reckoned with. A strong forward group, the best defense pairs of the tournament, and Ian Venables in goal means that they are a possibility to medal every year. I’m not really sure what else to say about Team Canada besides that they seem to be a lock for the gold medal round. Whoever they face will have a hard time getting past them, and their record of 7-2 in the exhibition round seems to prove that hypothesis true with a 10-goal differential, trailing only UCORCAL.

Venables is a brick wall, and seems unflappable no matter how many shots you throw at him, and the team builds itself from the crease outwards. Wang and Fudgeson provide threats from the blue line, and all four lines have the potential to create havoc.

TEAM WORLD Shl

A melting pot of different countries, Team World is always fascinating to unpack every year to see what new additions have made their way into the melange. This year’s team is a bit below the other strong teams such as USA and Canada, but still managed to put up a good fight in its group. The forward group is not great after you look past the first line, with new S53 centers Cerullo and White anchoring the 3rd and 4th line, and mostly new wingers filling out those same lines as well. The defense is quite a bit stronger, and keeps up with the other strong nations in terms of quality. The goaltending is a bit lower than they would have probably liked, with Vassallo and Eller in net, and like Team USA, may prove to be a problem that could hamper their performance.

The team performed slightly below expectations, being below Sweden by a single point in the exhibition round, but have parts that are ripe for future growth. Vassallo faced the fourth-most shots in the tournament (and played the most minutes) and performed admirably, posting a .900 save percentage and 3.25 goals against average.

TEAM DACH Austria

The team that I think is the true powerhouse of this tournament. The best balance between offense and defense, backed up by a great tandem of goalies. DACH has the 2nd strongest forward lineup after USA, and an above average defensive group, matched with a goalie tandem as strong as the British Isles’ pair. Their first three lines are as strong as Team USA’s, with only the fourth line disappointing a tiny little bit. There are clear delineations in the defensive pairings, with a pair of S53 forwards serving as a fourth pair, but the backstop of McMahon and Tegernako is enough to give any forward pause.

DACH has three forwards in the top-10 for goals scored in the exhibition round, and Tegernako has made a good showing for himself as a strong goalie. However, having been placed in Group A with all the other strong teams, DACH is only 5-2-2. They will hope to rectify that during the round robin and the medal rounds, and contend for the gold.

TEAM UCORCAL Czechia

The best defence is a good offence - that seems to be the motto of this team. With a forward group that is very much offensively-minded, and a defensive group of similar bent, UCORCAL is a goal-scoring machine that also gives up a lot of scoring chances (and therefore goals). Their forward group is strong, but the defensive group falls off very steeply after the first pair, with new S53 players in the 2nd and 3rd pair. The goaltending sits somewhere between Sweden and Canada, which means that the offensive prowess of this team is the only thing keeping it afloat in the standings.

Four UCORCAL forwards appear in the top 10 goalscorers list for the tournament exhibition round, which is no surprise, and their forwards are also the most efficient at scoring as evidenced by their P/20 ratings. Hroch has been a hot hand during the exhibition round as well, only behind Ian Venables in save percentage and goals against. This has helped propel them to 3rd place, ahead of BI and DACH, and an absolutely obscene +18 goal differential. However, they also gave up 22 goals, and if the offence disappears, they might end up in trouble.

TEAM SWEDEN Sweden

Team Sweden exists in the gulf between the strong nations and the prospect teams, better than Finland but not Team World. A strong first line leads the forward group, and the first pair is above average. However an infusion of fresh blood also means that the rest of the group isn’t as strong as their GM would have liked, in return for an investment in future talent. Krashwagen, Primeau and Lekberg Osterman are fresh off an IIHF loss, bringing talent and experience into the junior team, and Ibrahimovic Jr. is a two-way defenceman par excellence. Unfortunately a lack of active goalies has meant the loan of Kavanagh for the Swedes, in order to bolster a severe lack of goaltending talent.

Krashwagen leads the tournament with two hat tricks and 8 goals scored, and Primeau is right behind him with 7 goals. However, all that offense from the first line still isn’t enough to take them to the gold. Sweden is hopeful for the future, and that will have to do - their team is unlikely to proceed to a medal round, and they know it. The exhibition round has given them some hope however, as they sit atop Group B albeit by a very small sliver.

CONCLUSION

Readers, I hope that this pre-tournament preview has proved palatable and purposeful for you, and I wish all the teams in this tournament the best in their journey to the gold medal.

Here are my predictions for the S51 World Junior Championships.
Gold Medal: Team DACH
Silver Medal: Team Canada
Bronze Medal: Team USA
Leading Goal Scorer (during the medal round): Barbashev II
Who will score the gold medal winning goal: Bobby
Top Goalie (during the medal round, based on best Save %): Venables

Mediocre_Fred · 01-24-2020, 08:33 AM

Very nice work. Great job gathering all that data. You should get a bonus for that, really.

*thiefofcheese* · 01-24-2020, 10:11 AM

This is awesome. Great work pulling it all together.

To you rookies on the prospect teams - keep your head up. It's an uphill battle this tournament but I'm eager to see you beat up on DACH.

Nhamlet · 01-24-2020, 10:18 AM

Data reads with graphs are always a great read, nice work!

reid · 01-24-2020, 10:30 AM

Monster effort, great job!

SKREEEEE Falcons

*Mutedfaith* · 01-24-2020, 10:36 AM

01-24-2020, 10:11 AMthiefofcheese Wrote: This is awesome. Great work pulling it all together.

To you rookies on the prospect teams - keep your head up. It's an uphill battle this tournament but I'm eager to see you beat up on DACH.