[SJHN] S53 Award Predictions
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Nhamlet
Budget Director Weenie Hut Jr. GM With the season over, our SJHN analysts took a look at who they thought were the frontrunners for each of the SMJHL’s awards. Each person nominated two names, and the ones with the most votes were considered to be the leading candidates. Raymond Lindsay Trophy (MVP as voted by the players): Edward Williams (DET), Cale Amundsen (NLB), Mitchell van der Heijden (ANC) Dex: Taking a quick look at who the players thought was the MVP of the season, I heard a lot of them say either Edward Williams of Detroit or Cale Amundsen of Newfoundland. There were also some players saying Mitchell van der Heijden and Frans Eller, but I think the two I mentioned before are the front runners. Cale Amundsen posted a 2.68 GAA and a 0.919 SV% to help carry the Berserkers to the playoffs while Edward Williams led the league in goals, assists, and points. It’s honestly a really close race looking back at it, but in my opinion I’d give it to Amundsen. He faced the second most shots this season with 1415 all while maintaining his save percentage. Also, only 5 players on the Berserkers team had over 0.5 points per game compared to the Falcons 12 players which shows that Cale Amundsen had to come up big on many occasions when his team seemed unable to score. However, it’s not just me voting so I think in the end the players as a collective went with Edward Williams with his amazing season, well deserving of the award. Nham: Maybe I shouldn’t be writing anything on this considering I have a major horse in the race but at the very least this is an opportunity to sell the idea that Amundsen is deserving of any and all awards in his direction, least of all the Raymond Lindsay Trophy. Facing an average of 33.21 shots/game which is good for 3rd most of all goalies above 30 games played, the rookie goaltender was tested often on a team that was heavily revamped. He had 12 other rookies on the roster with him, only one other 425 TPE player and a few 350s to fill out the rest of the team. In comparison, Williams had maybe 5 players under 300 TPE on the dressed roster by the end of the season. Still, you can’t discount the fact that in the season where there were only 3 players that broke the 50 point mark in the SMJHL this season and Williams not only was there but also exceed it by scoring a whopping 30 goals and 34 assists. He basically did everything that you could ask from a skater from scoring, assisting, being a physical presence, a threat on special teams, even fighting once and winning. It’s tough to say no to Williams and I wouldn’t disagree with your choice if that's who you went with. I’m starting to talk myself into being a Williams fan. Ideen Fallah Trophy (MVP as voted by award committee): Edward Williams (DET), Mitchell van der Heijden (ANC), Guy O’Shea (DET) Boom: I think this one is probably a two-horse race between Williams and van der Heijden. Edward Williams put up the eye-popping numbers to lead Detroit to a first-place finish in the SMJHL, winning the scoring race with 64 points while also playing a hyper-physical game with 194 hits and leading the SMJHL in penalty minutes with 95. Mitchell van der Heijden, meanwhile, put up an incredibly complete game throughout the season, recording 52 points to lead the Anchorage Armada while also recording 109 hits, 27 blocked shots, and averaging over two minutes of penalty-killing time a game. O’Shea excelled offensively with 10 goals and 36 points for the Detroit Falcons, but I don’t think he has as strong of a case for the Fallah as Williams or van der Heijden, as he only had 17 hits and 45 blocked shots and didn’t usually kill penalties. While the offense is impressive from the back end, his lack of defensive contributions just doesn’t do it for me. It’s hard to specifically predict a winner as Williams excelled offensively while van der Heijden was more of a jack of all trades, but I think Williams’ offensive numbers will sway the committee. Dex: I agree with Boom. This one is probably between the two players with the most points, Edward Williams and Mitchell van der Heijden. This is not to discredit O’Shea, he had a great season as a defenseman. Personally when I think of an MVP, the player must be good at driving play while being one of the best players on the team by a substantial margin. Looking at point differences within their teams, both lead by 14 points. Looking at special teams, van der Heijden got almost half his points on the powerplay with 25 while Williams had 19. Then there’s the physical side of the game which Williams has the edge, as well as the defensive side on the penalty kill where van der Heijden has the edge. As you can see it certainly is a close race and if I had to choose one, I’d place my bets on Williams but to be honest this feels like a coin toss. Mathias Chouinard Trophy (GM of the year): notorioustig and Nour (DET), Acsolap and golden_apricot (ANC), Katth and Naosu (KEL) Boom: Tig and Nour built a juggernaut this season, leading Detroit to a 41-win campaign and eventually the Four Star Cup. While the numbers are eye-popping, I think the main thing that will work against them in the voting is that most of their building was done in the S52 draft where they ended up with an absurd eight players in the top 30 for TPE as of last week’s update, and other than adapting well to FHM they really didn’t do all that much specific to this season in terms of roster upgrades, picking up Joseph Fantobens in the draft, trading for veteran Zbygniew Pokrywka, and adding Thor Odinson as an excellent backup goalie. Acsolap and Apricot, meanwhile, helped take Anchorage from a ninth-place finish in the last season of STHS to a strong S53 season and the second seed in the Western Conference. Even with a brutal skid in the middle of the season (a trait shared by the other nominees, Kelowna), Anchorage was always a tough out every game thanks to Apricot’s knowledge of FHM and strong draft class, led by rookies like Alexei Petrikov, Matthew Sawful, Bork Lazer, and others. Katth and Naosu continued a strong season in S52 by adding to their core with great pieces like Daniel Laforest and Simon Takshak. This is an interesting one for me because Kelowna was already a strong team before the season, but despite an early-season skid, the Knights turned it around and eventually finished first in the Western Conference. In my opinion, Tig and Nour having already won the Chouinard last season with this core is kind of a disqualifier, so I think Anchorage is the favourite here. Dex: I agree that although Detroit had an insane year with 41 wins, the team already had the expectation to do extremely well heading into this season. The Falcons already led the league last season however this season they have 23 more points. The question is whether their 84 point season and their Four Star Cup win be enough to sway the voters over the other nominees. Similar to Detroit, entering this season Kelowna also had the expectation of doing well in spite of finishing 7th last season with 57 points. The only difference is that Kelowna wasn’t able to win the Four Star Cup in the end and that they had an 8 point improvement. Then there is Anchorage who finished 2nd in the conference. I put Anchorage’s GMs as my prediction for this trophy since they had a 13 point improvement playing rookies like Alexei Petrikov, Matthew Sawful and Bork Lazer over 19 minutes a game. Acsolap and golden_apricot really used the S53 SMJHL Entry Draft to help with the retool and it certainly worked out well in spite of them losing in the 1st round of the playoffs. Nham: I’m very much in the boat as well that Detroit’s success was largely a result of previous seasons’ of work, from their draft in the S52 where they found Guy O’Shea, Cal Labovitch and Luke McMaster to mention some names on top of the massive S53 draft that saw them bring home the GMs of the season award before. To be devil’s advocate though, their tinkering didn’t stop there. Their ridiculous 84 point season is only a result of the two of notorioustig and nour continuing to tinker and add, not settling for the already talented roster they had put together. The addition of Pokrywka, drafting Fantobens and a smart UDFA addition in Odinson Taisto Jutila meant that they had basically no holes. At the end of the day, they achieved the goal of winning the 4 Star Cup. At the same time, the way that they had set themselves up, anything else could have been considered a failure in retrospect so it wouldn’t be the wrong choice to believe that they are deserving of another season of being GMs of the year. If I had to pick a close second, it would also be Anchorage. Kelowna made some smart drafting choices that I think will pan off in the next season but also had the advantage of a few 425 capped players that stayed beyond the typical 3-4 period in the SMJHL. Anchorage on the other hand lost a lot of talent, nailed about every pick in their draft and were not far off from the Knights’ regular season record despite lacking a capped starter. Zach Miller Trophy (most dedicated): Reid Sutherland (DET), Sven Yxskaft (VAN), Scoochie Stratton (ANC), Daniel LaForest (KEL) Boom: This is an award that goes beyond the simulations, so it’s probably one of the awards that I’m most interested in projecting. Reid Sutherland was the creator of the Simulation Junior Hockey Network, an offshoot of the Simulation Hockey Network, and has been instrumental in helping to direct a quality team of media producers creating regular, quality content. Sven Yxskaft/Kenvald is both an updater and a member of the SMJHL Awards Committee, so he contributes a lot to the site while also being one of the top earners in his draft class. Stratton/honkerrs jumped right in with both feet, becoming a SMJHL Intern in his rookie season and processing a lot of players, along with producing high-quality media projects. Daniel Laforest/Snoopdogg has been a fellow first-gen rookie who has been a major contributor to the site, producing strong media pieces both by himself and as a part of the SJHN team, and recently stepped up by becoming an updater as well. All four of these nominees are incredibly deserving, but I think my personal frontrunners in this group would be Sutherland and Stratton. Managing a media project of this size is a lot of work, and Stratton has become a regular contributor to the site while also having a site job right from the start of his first season. Dex: I think we all can agree that we all appreciate the number of things that people around the site do to keep it running and it is great to recognize their work with this award. As Boom has listed above me, each and every one of these players took part in helping the site be as good as it can be. Personally what stands out to me is the scale of the project that Reid Sutherland undertook in the Simulation Junior Hockey Network, as well as Scoochie Stratton (honkerrs) who did a lot as an SMJHL Intern. It is tough to choose as I appreciate all of their work, but if I had to choose who I think would win I’d go with Scoochie Stratton (honkerrs). As an intern, he processed and welcomed a large number of incoming players this past season and interns always had to be on top of that within the day usually. That means a lot of time spent on the site in addition to team locker rooms where he has been a pleasure to talk to. Nham: This is a tough one and for me an award that I wish they could give out to multiple people as many of them are deserving of this. I don’t know if there’s any way of trying to parse through each individual and quantify how much one stands about another. What I will say is that I respect what Reid, honkerrs and Snoopdogg do as a media writer myself. Reid because it’s one thing to create your own media but it’s another to be responsible for topics and being on top of other people to ensure that your brand is continuing to be at the forefront. Honkerrs continues to put out amazing stuff that any sim league would love to have despite having the tedious work of being a SMJHL HO intern. Snoop? The man clearly has no need for funds but still continues to pump out media like a machine. I honestly can’t pick. Quilha Agante Trophy (best defenseman): Jukka Timonen (NLB), Sven Yxskaft (VAN), Guy O’Shea (DET), Alex Petrenko (ANA), Luc-Pierre Lespineau-Lebrunette (STL) Boom: Breaking this one down, there was a pretty decent spread of players here, as five players from different teams were finalists for the Agante Trophy. We lead off with Jukka Timonen, who in my opinion played the most complete game of the group. He finished sixth in scoring among defensemen with 28 points, but his main contributions came from being a rock on the back end. Timonen led all players in ice time by a wide margin with an average of 26:41 a game, including over three minutes a game on the power play and almost three minutes on the penalty kill, so he was an all-situations ace. He didn’t shy away from physicality either, recording 41 hits and 94 blocked shots. Moving on to the next name on the list, we have Sven Yxskaft of the Vancouver Whalers. Yxskaft put up 24 points, but his stats were slightly hampered from Vancouver’s poor goal support and heavy minutes, as he was a -17 on the season. Regardless, he was the best skater on a weaker team and could be reliably counted on, especially with his 3:34 of penalty-killing time per game - the highest in the league - on a Whalers team that was one of the least disciplined in the SMJHL. O’Shea led all defensemen in scoring with 36 points on a strong Falcons squad and was a big part of leading Detroit to a first-place finish, but as has been mentioned above, his defensive metrics just don’t jump off the page compared to the other finalists, as he only had 17 hits and 45 blocked shots and was the only nominee with negligible penalty-killing time. Petrenko, similarly to Yxskaft, was a stalwart on a team with lacking defensive depth. It’s actually pretty interesting how similar their stats are, as Petrenko also played about 25 and a half minutes while paired with a rookie, and got 32 points with similar physical numbers, though he didn’t quite kill penalties as often as Yxskaft. Finally, Luc-Pierre Lespineau-Lebrunette may not have been an offensive threat with only 12 points, all assists, but he brought the beef to a deep Scarecrows blueline with 216 hits and 93 penalty minutes to make opposing forwards fear for their lives entering the offensive zone. I think Timonen is probably the favourite here, as he just did everything and did it well for Newfoundland. After that I would say Yxskaft and Petrenko both have the next best chances, and then Lespineau-Lebrunette and O’Shea would be about even coming after them with one being pure offense and the other pure defense. Dex: A trophy having 5 different nominees is certainly going to make it tough to narrow down. If you’re looking for the best defenseman in the offensive zone, then it goes to Guy O’Shea with 36 points and Alex Petrenko with 32. If you are looking for the best defenseman in the defensive zone, then I’d say Jukka Timonen with 94 shots blocked, Sven Yxskaft with 77, and Luc-Pierre Lespineau-Lebrunette with 29 takeaways to 16 giveaways. As Boom has mentioned, I think the winner of this award should play both sides of the ice well and with that I think Alex Petrenko is my prediction for the winner. Petrenko was the 4th highest scoring defenseman behind Turner, O’Shea, and Kanoff. However, Petrenko also played well defensively with 71 shots blocked and 34 takeaways to 18 giveaways. He was trusted with over 25 minutes a game, an ice time only a couple players saw, while playing both the powerplay and the penalty kill. It is certainly a close race but out of all these great defensemen this season I have to go with Alex Petrenko. Nham: Looking at the context of how Petrenko and Timonen were put in their respective playing half the game situations, you can see a couple parallels. For one, they are both leaders in their defensive groups, with neither of them having an active defensive player older than S54 besides themselves. Naturally as the highest TPE defensemen on their respective teams, it’s no wonder that they played as much as they did. I do think with the basic numbers being so close, you have to turn to the advanced stats and see what the shot totals look like for both players. Timonen was the shooter of the two having 32 more shots, but actually only created 900 corsi for and had 999 corsi against compared to Petrenko’s 983 corsi for and 728 corsi against. The goal differential per 60 was also edged towards Petrenko as well with him being a 0.8 goals differential per 60 and Timonen being at 0.6 goals differential per 60. The only thing I can say for Timonen that he achieved those numbers with a weaker supporting core in both his forwards and relative talent of the goaltending crew. Could say that the numbers are what they are, and Petrenko still performed better of the two when it came to puck possession. Brandon Holmes Trophy (best defensive forward): Danny Marston (STL), Mitchell van der Heijden (ANC), SLATT Potts (NLB), Simothy Drunkebird (COL), Al Kayhall (MNE) Boom: Finding the best defensive forward can be an interesting task, as there are plenty of metrics that can be used. Personally, I like to use hits, blocked shots, giveaway/takeaway ratios, and special-teams play, particularly on the penalty kill. Looking at our list of nominees, Danny Marston is first up. The playmaking Scarecrows centre sacrificed his body for 37 hits and 86 blocked shots and averaged just under two minutes of penalty-killing time. He’s responsible for the puck too, recording 21 takeaways to only 10 giveaways. Next up is Anchorage Armada superstar Mitchell van der Heijden. The fourth-year player was physical with 109 hits and 27 blocked shots and averaged over two minutes of PK time. The main thing working against him is his puck responsibility; despite playing a lot of ice time, van der Hejiden had 38 giveaways and only 14 takeaways. Our next finalist is Newfoundland’s SLATT Potts. Potts had a solid defensive season, recording 53 hits and the same number of blocked shots. Similar to our first two nominees, he averaged just under two minutes of penalty-killing time and was responsible with the puck, with 35 takeaways to 19 giveaways. Simothy Drunkebird excelled defensively for Colorado with 85 hits and 46 blocked shots. His puck control was solid with 23 takeaways to 11 giveaways, and along with van der Heijden was the only forward on this list to pick up a shorthanded goal. Last but not least, we have Maine’s Al Kayhall. He had pretty similar stats to the other four nominees defensively, but did so playing for a less offensively inclined team to take pressure off him, so Kayhall’s defensive play as captain was relied upon more heavily. Honestly, all five of these forwards are so close together in these metrics that it’s hard to predict a winner, but I’m going to go with Simothy Drunkebird. He was the most physical of the bunch looking at hits, and was solidly responsible with the puck with few turnovers. Dex: When I think of the best defensive forward, I think of a forward that is able to lay big hits, block shots, and have more takeaways than giveaways. Leading the hits amongst the nominees is Mitchell van der Heijden with 109, 24 more than the next nominee. Leading the blocked shots is Danny Marston who had 86 blocked shots which is 17 more than the next player in Al Kayhall. Lastly, there is the best takeaway to giveaway ratio. In this category, Danny Marston has a very slight edge over Simothy Drunkebird. Marston had a ratio of 2.1 while Drunkebird had a ratio of 2.09 takeaways to giveaways. Looking at the statistics individually, it seems like there is no definite winner but if I had to choose a winner I’d go with Danny Marston as he had the most shots blocked and had the best takeaway to giveaway ratio. The only thing holding Marston back from being the clear winner is the low number of hits he throws, but personally I think his large number of shots blocked is enough to overlook that. Plus, a hard hitter may not always equal a good defensive player. Nham: I personally am not a fan when it comes to using hits as a measure for defensive play. Too easily those numbers are swayed by puck possession as the general idea is that you can only hit if you don’t have the puck. Ideally the defensive prowess translates to your team having the puck more than the other one and if all you’re doing is just throwing the body and getting in the way of the puck hoping that those chances that are being given up, might not turn into goals? Not the best look. I will admittedly be hypocritical and say that I do like shots blocked to an extent despite it suffering from similar issues to hitting as neither stat also translates to retrieving the puck for your team. It would be great if there would be more stats to see the effectiveness of either. One last note before I do start picking somebody as my favorite for the trophy, props to the award nomination committee for looking through positions and including wingers that are also very deserving of the award. With how limited things are, I suppose that rather than finding who I think is the most effective defensive forward, it’s probably seeing who has been the most involved when their team doesn’t have the puck. I would probably have Marston and Potts as my top two choices. I think I would have Potts as my winner and that’s not the Berserker Bias speaking. Out of all the players sorted by takeaways, Potts is ranked 2nd in the league and the highest as a forward with 35. The other forwards below him include Stracimir Petrovic (IA), Al Kayhall (no PK time), Rhys Pritchard (no PK time) and Cal Labovitch (no PK time). On top of actually being relied on when Newfoundland finds themselves being a man down, he’s also produced 2 short handed assists being a threat offensive when not necessarily being expected to. Marston has similar ice time short handed, way more in the shot block category but also maintains that attractive takeaway ratio though a lower 21 total. Tom Corcoran Trophy (best goalie): Cale Amundsen (NLB), Frans Eller (CAR), Cillian Kavanagh (KEL) Boom: Another award with three very strong candidates, let’s start with Cale Amundsen. The rookie goalie for the Newfoundland Berserkers was a big part of their playoff push, and even when the team hit a huge skid right before the trade deadline, Amundsen kept them in games and gave them a chance to win. He ended up finishing his season with a 21-17-4 record, a 2.68 GAA, and a 0.919 save percentage while tying for the league lead with five shutouts. He did all this with a defense that was icing five rookies and facing the second-most shots in the league. Moving on, Frans Eller had a more difficult situation, being the entrenched starter behind a rookie-heavy roster that was only one goal ahead of being the worst offense in the league. His 16-21-3 record and 2.95 GAA might not be the most impressive, but Eller had a .920 save percentage, the best among starting goaltenders in the SMJHL, and faced the third-most shots in the league. Without him, there is no chance that Carolina makes the playoffs. Rounding out the list, Cillian Kavanagh had a rough start to the season, as did virtually the entire Knights roster, but he rebounded to post a league-best 27 wins in 44 games. His save percentage was somewhat middling at 0.906, but Kavanagh’s 2.43 GAA was the third-best among starters (behind A Jobin and Sergei Potvinov, who played 33 and 32 games respectively) and five shutouts can’t be argued with. I think the frontrunner for this award is likely Amundsen. As much as Eller singlehandedly carried the Kraken to the playoffs, Amundsen is even or ahead of him on every stat, and Kavanagh faced 300 fewer shots than Amunden did. Esa Anrikkanen Trophy (best rookie): Cale Amundsen (NLB), Tinke Jutila (NLB), Alexei Petrikov (ANC), Emilia Bergman (ANA) Boom: The class of exemplary rookies this season includes two teammates from Newfoundland in Cale Amundsen and Tinke Jutila, one player from Anchorage in Alexei Petrikov, and Emilia Bergman for Anaheim. This was generally regarded as an incredibly deep draft class for defensemen leading up to the S54 SHL Draft, and it shows here with three of them being finalists for this award. I’ve already gone into detail about how valuable Amundsen was to this team, so I don’t need to use more words on it here, but Jutila performed pretty well considering his defense partner was a cyborg in Jukka Timonen. He was steady with 81 hits and was second in the league in blocked shots with 130, and played over 23 minutes a game, including almost three minutes a game on the penalty kill. Alexei Petrikov, meanwhile, was an offensive dynamo for the Anchorage Armada, putting up 29 points to lead all rookies in scoring. With 19 assists and 114 shots, he excelled at getting the puck to teammates in the right spots. Finally, Emilia Bergman was thrown straight into the fire in Anaheim, finishing fourth in ice time in the entire league behind only Timonen, Sven Yxskaft, and her own defense partner Alex Petrenko. Bergman only scored two goals all season, but added 21 assists and was physical with 85 hits. Personally, I think Petrikov is the leading candidate for this award. A defenseman putting up 29 points is impressive on its own, and doing it as a rookie to lead the scoring class is even better. The only other rookie to crack the top 50 leading scorers in points was Carolina’s Vitek Vitecek, who put up 15 of his 27 points on the power play. Nham: It’s crazy how many defensemen came into the league this season and performed way better than expected despite being fed top line minutes and against the best competition. I still remember scoring a measly 8 points in my rookie season on the 4th line and still being a liability. For me, it’s a toss up of Petrikov, Bergman and Amundsen. Petrikov for the fact that while he could have been put in a situation to maybe pick up some easy points feeding one of the best in the league in teammate Mitchell van der Heijden, Petrikov did not get those #1 PP minutes and still found a way to produce 10 goals of his own being on the top pair. Defensively, not quite as impressive as Bergman who made her case of proving how she belonged in the league with 85 hits and 44 shots blocked while playing massive minutes including PP and PK. Amundsen might win this if I stick to the belief that he is both the MVP and best goalie this season but I do think Bergman should get recognition for her presence on the Anaheim blueline. I think that if any GM were to add a player of her caliber to their backline, that would be one massive hole patched and a GM jumping for joy. Ron Bolt Trophy (most sportsmanlike): Kaarlo Kekkonen (DET), Guy O’Shea (DET), Reid Sutherland (DET) Boom: This is a difficult one to really get into because we only see stats, but Kekkonen is probably the favourite as he put up a point per game while also recording a penalty-free season, while Sutherland had 2 minutes and O’Shea had 4 minutes. I was surprised to see Mats Marner not be a finalist for this award, as the Berserkers centre put up 16 points while being the only other non-DFA to record a penalty-free season. Nham: Agreed on Mats Marner being missed on the list. I think that as a newer and younger player, it would be natural to have better players attempt to take advantage of you and needing to take a penalty to make up for the skill and experience difference. Mats did not. In Kekkonen’s case, not only was he able to dominate offensively, there was never an instance (that he was caught in anyways) where he found himself behind the play and needed to take an infraction. Vyacheslav Onoprienko Trophy (most underrated): Tinke Jutila (NLB), Burlok Sulfurgold (DET), Jean-Uthred Ragnarsson-Tremblay (COL) Nham: Is it bad that we don’t have a lot to say about these underrated guys? Maybe that’s a testament to just how underrated they all are. To be quite honest I’m not sure that I could do any justice by any of these players that hasn’t already been been perfectly covered by hhh’s piece elaborating on the nomination process and going through each of the picks. Given the back story that each team is able to offer about why they had nominated these players, that might be a better avenue if you’re wanting to read more. Quote:5100 WC, split between @Dextaria, @thecanadiancanuck, and @Nhamlet
hhh81
SHL GM Brennan Lee Mulligan Stan
honkerrs
IIHF Federation Head IIHF GM
Thanks guys for the kind words on most dedicated. Honestly surprised I was even nominated and all the other guys nom'd are insanely good. Impressed I'm mentioned with them
Snoopdogg
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