Login

StadiumGambler · 08-26-2020, 07:43 PM

(Word count is 1130)

Greetings gents and gals, StadiumGambler here to waste keystrokes on an article designed solely to get me paid!

I was looking at the end-of-season index in a forlorn hope to have proof of Nick Brain being elite, when I noticed some interesting stats at the top of the individual scoring leaderboards. Aaron Wilson did yeoman's work this season and got a nice 75 point total, assuring himself of the SHL's version of the Art Ross this season. It was a good performance from Mr. Wilson, but I fear that, if this sim league were real, there would be basic-stat obsessed talking heads on TV networks who think "Welp, that just entitles him to this here MVP trophy, I reckon.". Now yes, it is true that Wilson season was good, but I think such base logic would cause hockey's various analytics nerds to have a coronary, and while I don't know anything about analytics at all, I do know that there are some slightly below surface level stats and some key points to consider for the concept of Most Valuable Player, and those numbers would favour a 72-point scorer instead: Daniel Smeb of the Chicago Syndicate.

The most important one that ties into another argument I'll make here is defensive stats. Aaron Wilson had 15 takeaways, 1 blocked shot, a +/- of 26 and a shots for/against per 60 of 45.8 to 22.4 (and a DGR of 60 for whatever that's worth). Daniel Smeb had 27 takeaways, 46 blocked shots, a +/- of 31, a shots for/against per 60 of 47.2 to 22.0, and a slightly better defensive game rating of 62.

Now obviously there's some extenuating circumstances here, like the shots for or against could also be a result of the other 4 players on the ice too more than just Danny or Aaron, but looking at their player page ratings (which we'll treat by IRL logic as being hyper-advanced scouting by watching tapes from a camera just glued to a player.) I think it's fairly reasonable to assume Daniel's better defensively. Aaron is more physically imposing and has a slightly better read on the game defensively, but Daniel's positioning is better and hes a better skater too. (I'd guess Daniel is asked to play more of a two-way role as well, while Aaron's role would probably be the imposing "finisher" who either makes the last pass or shoots it, and can float defensively a bit while the others picks up the slack and look to give him a breakout pass.)

Wilson's 75 points vs Smeb's 72 can be mitigated by this defense, as you could make the argument that if 7% of the shots Daniel Smeb blocked were shots that could've been goals, then Smeb preventing 3 goals from 45 more shot blocks makes up for him being involved in 3 fewer goals (That number could even be higher than 3, considering that Tibuk Soonika had a down year with a 14th-ranked save % amongst goalies at .907, although they got some terrific backup play from Billy Sorokin). And thats not even getting into how many goals Daniel Smeb's 27 takeaways prevented (or started for Chicago) compared to Wilson's 15 (although who knows how you track that.)

To me though, the most important argument is the spirit of what "Most Valuable Player" should mean, and for that I use the Russell Wilson Argument.

For those who don't follow NFL, last season there was a big debate over who really deserved the MVP award. Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens got it for being new and interesting and having some gaudy numbers and being the man at the controls for the best regular-season team in the league and etc, but some people argued that Russell Wilson of the Seattle Seahawks deserved it more, because he put up gaudy numbers with questionable talent surrounding him (in addition to probably tougher opposition than the Ravens faced). Wilson forcibly had to make something out of nothing more often than Jackson, who had more support from his teammates and a defense that could keep Jackson in it. If Jackson were replaced with a backup like RGIII, then RGIII could run things at least well enough for Baltimore to make a stand and stay in games thanks to the other personnel, while even starting-caliber quarterbacks might struggle to keep Seattle afloat, specifically because few people could do what Russell Wilson does for Seattle, hes just that special a talent.

You could use a variant of this argument for Wilson v Smeb. Wilson is on a team in Hamilton that has it tactically going on, and got an 84 point season last year from Flacko Lagerfield, who was a 1300 TPE inactive updater for the most part. I don't think its hyperbolic to say that if Aaron Wilson was replaced by a middle line quality forward who could play a watered-down version of his role, Hamilton would probably still be above the playoff danger zone, because they got a not terrible season from rookie goalie A Jobin, they have an excellent, unrelenting blueline corps, and they have the tactical nous to make the best outta what they got.

On the other hand, replacing Daniel Smeb with a middle-line quality forward would've probably been disastrous for Chicago, who were super close to missing the playoffs. Whether it was tactics, bad luck for them, a horrid case of goalie RNG from Tibuk Soonika, the performance drop of a few contributors of last season's playoff team, or some five-leaf clover level puck luck from New England, Chicago could've very easily been sitting at home watching the playoffs instead of playing in it, without Daniel Smeb taking up the mantle of not only being Chicago's number 1 offensive threat, but also probably being a guy they counted on regularly to try and stop the likes of Aaron Wilson from scoring on them. Chicago needed Daniel Smeb to be great more than Hamilton needed Aaron Wilson to be great, and I think as a result, Smeb should get MVP consideration for being literally the most valuable player in the league to his team, who would be up Elimination Creek without him.

In my view, no other team really has a player like that in this particular season with how the standings turned out, but hey, maybe I'm full of it. The point is, I wrote something SHL-related that sounds vaguely intelligent so I should get a million or so sitebux. Goodnight fellas, see you again with another media piece sometime!