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Amidships · 12-07-2020, 04:39 AM

For my first ever deep dive, I wanted to start on somewhat familiar territory so I'll be doing a TPE-based comparison. In this article I'll discuss, way too prematurely, the season fifty-seven SMJHL draft and more specifically the early development of players from each team. We'll look at the number of players each team drafted as well as the average TPE of players drafted this season. This article utilizes data from Player Analyze 2.0, so any players not listed on that spreadsheet as of ~11pm EST on 6th December, 2020 will not be included.

The above table gives a few different values we'll discuss; AVG TPE is the average TPE each player drafted from the S57 draft for each respective team. I took the total TPE of each teams draftees and averaged it over the number of players they drafted; no team is penalized for drafting different numbers of players. Once I obtained those numbers, I determined the difference between each team's AVG TPE and then averaged the differences over the number of teams to determine the average difference between each team. I then clustered the teams based on that number which gives us the colored tiers.

The top four teams were quite close, all of them well above the class average of 208.60 TPE. Leading this tier is Kelowna with a whopping 224.43 average TPE per player drafted. Kelowna's S57 class of seven players boasts six above 200 TPE, two players in the top ten of the class, and four in the top twenty. It looks like Kelowna has hit on quite a few prospects, which they'll need to dig their way out of their last place finish in the West last season. Next up is Anchorage who, despite having all S57 draftees above 200 TPE, are sitting at 2-3 on the year. If these players can keep getting better at their current pace, Anchorage will absolutely be able to claw their way back out of their early deficit. St. Louis comes in third, narrowly edging out fourth place Carolina by a miniscule 0.17 average TPE. Another great draft, the Scarecrows have all but one draftee over 220 TPE. If this class of mostly forwards can get the offense sorted out, they will be lethal in the next few seasons. Last up in Tier 1 is the Kraken with two players in the top ten, and 75% of their class over 200 TPE. With quite a few less draft picks than the rest of the tier, I expect this teams average to skyrocket over the course of the season.

In Tier 2, the reigning champions stand alone. Just below the class average but still above the team average, the Whalers add a solid core of players to their roster as the seek to retool after an impressive cup run.

Tier 3 consists of another tightly packed group of teams that are just under the class average. Maine picked up a pair of top ten players, but have a few others that need a bit more time on the ice to get into SMJHL shape. Detroit's incredible number of draft picks in the first rewards them with one of the best players in the class.. and two others over 200. This team had a great opportunity to build an incredible team this draft, but will need to do some work to get a solid return on their investment. Rounding out Tier 3 is the Citadelles, currently in first place in the East. Quebec City didn't have many picks, but the made a few count brining in a pair of top twenty caliber skaters. The other two picks will need some additional practice to help the team hang on to their lead.

To wrap up the draft review we have three teams, each in their own tier. Colorado might be below average for their S57 class TPE, but you can't argue with the success they've had on the ice. If even a few of these players can improve their pace, this team will continue on their path of dominance. Last year's runners up, Newfoundland, find themselves one of two teams below 200 average TPE per draftee this season. This can mostly be overlooked by the fact that they have nine selections this year, five of which have hit the 200 TPE or better threshold. Only time will tell how this enormous class will fare against smaller and more efficient classes. In last place, we have Anaheim on the other end of the spectrum. With only one draftee, all the pressure is on Casey Outlaw's shoulders. Unfortunately, the stress may have been too much, leading to a miniscule 167 TPE. If this player can improve and begin getting better, this team has some of the best potential to have the best average of any other in the Juniors.

It is far too early to compare players by TPE in any meaningful way, but to this point there is a clear delineation between teams that have earning draft classes and teams that don't. I hope to see the teams in the lower tiers improve; a better average for the class leads to more competition and a more exciting atmosphere in the Juniors.

Full data can be found here: Link

Approved, +5 TPE @Amidships

DeletedAtUserRequest · 12-07-2020, 12:14 PM

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