How'd We Do 2 - Part 3 (2x Media)
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![]() Registered S15, S16, S28, S34, S38 Challenge Cup Champion and Lance Bass Quote:Heads up for those looking for Toronto in this one, because of the 5k limit, this would have with Toronto ended up at just under 5200 and so I had to adjust a bit. I moved Toronto into the last part for those looking. A Team by Team Outlook Three Seasons Down the Line
A few seasons ago, I did a look through teams to see what their needs were heading for the S57 Draft and then reviewed their selections to determine how well they fit that need. Now, along the path of a lot of different articles, I am going to go back through and see what they looked like in S57 and how those past few seasons have gone, what happened in expansion that can affect what they need to do, and then a review of what they should be looking for at the draft. Finally, I’ll review what they did at the draft and if that looks to be within the needs that I had seen coming in.
To give a disclaimer, this was all written in parts. Before the expansion draft, I wrote up the reviews of the previous time I did this exercise. I also wrote a few of the expansion picks based on assumptions I had, and I got a few correct, luckily. The majority were written after the expansion draft, however, seeing what was taken and how that changed the team. I have no idea of picks traded leading into the draft since the day of the expansion draft at that point. I then of course write the review of the draft picks after the draft is completed. Disclaimer number two, due to the new rules for double media, this has been broken out into a large number of articles. This introduction will be on each one, as I know how people are. You will be looking for your team and reading primarily about them. I agree with the new rules, and appreciate the graders who will be working through all of this media and just felt a need to make these disclaimers. Another disclaimer before we get into it, I am in no way disparaging any general managers or teams here. While I give thoughts and opinions, they are wholly my own and as it was last time, I cannot see into the war rooms of these teams to know what the plan ultimately is. I may get some things correct, I may get a lot of things wrong. What I will give is my honest thoughts and opinions, and I do not intend to upset anybody with those. Without further ado, let’s see how these teams did. ![]() NEW ENGLAND WOLFPACK Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S45) D – Dominic Montgomery, (S46) D – Perry Morgan, (S50) RW – Sasha Dangelchek, (S51) RW – Stan Hanson Prospects in S57: (S55) LW – Ryan Rieley, (S55) RW – Alexander Oscarsson, (S55) RW – Gudmunder Kristjansson, (S55) D – Leonids Balzams, (S56) D – Mikhael Petrov, (S56) D - Teylora Petrov, (S56) RW – Alexis Vermette, (S56) D – Grandmaster Funk, (S56) C – Calvin Hobbes, (S56) RW – Adrian Ayers Picks in S57: C – Jonathan Granstrom, RW – Brennan Huff, LW – Bas O’Bigbers, C – Kaapo Kampainen, G – Bigga Foryu Back in S57, this was a fun one to look at. I ended up accurate, in a way, on the players in danger of being replaced. Montgomery ultimately left for Atlanta, and the others were let go over time. Their deep prospect pool turned out pretty well, with Oscarsson, Kristjansson, Balzams, Teylora Petrov, Vermette, Hobbes and Ayers all making the big league squad. That’s a big turnout for them.
This team was one that didn’t have much space and had a lot of people to fill the space that was there. Meanwhile, they continue to have that again as in S57 they ended up picking first overall and getting Jonathan Granstrom, who continues to be the highest earner in the draft class. Bas O’Bigbers went from being picks at 16 to being the 12th ranked prospect in the class by TPE, and Kaapo Kampainen went from the 27th pick to being 14th in the class in TPE. That’s some great drafting and great turnaround. Of course, Brennan Huff ultimately busted and Bigga Foryu ended up retiring recently. However, getting three out of five picks right and to be top 15 players in their class is a pretty big deal. New England is a fun team to look at on this look back because they had so many prospects and it was going to be interesting to see who stuck around and when they decided to turn it on and make a move. What ultimately happened is that they made that move in S59, and brought in FR Finn-Rhys, and while that didn’t get them to the playoffs in this season it is a big move that signals they’re ready to make the next step. And that’s where expansion comes in... Lost in Expansion: (S56) F – Alexis Vermette, (S54) D – James LeBlond Vermette is a difficult loss to eat in some ways. The team is able to handle it, I’d think, but it isn’t exactly something you want to see. He’s 29th in his draft class in TPE, a steady earner that has done well for the Wolfpack. LeBlond is 31st in his class, but again can be a solid depth piece for the expansion teams. These are two players that probably aren’t going to be deciding games for Philadelphia or Montreal, but they will be contributors who are pretty far off from regression and therefore can guarantee they won’t be needing immediately replaced.
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S46) F - Knute Knurtsson, (S53) F - (Clean) Andrei Kostitsyn Prospects: (S57) F – Jonathan Granstrom, (S57) F – Bas O’Bigbers, (S58) F – Cole Carter, (S58) F – Jonny Tsunami, (S59) F – Jack Micro, (S59) D – Matej Winters, (S59) F – Top Cheddar Alright, this is kind of cheating isn’t it? I mean, considering we were expanding we knew there were too many players for too few of spots. We could see it the last time, three seasons ago, when I did this experiment. This team has always been maybe a little overstocked on prospects and here they are, perfectly aligned to absorb the blow of expansion. Granstrom, as noted, was the first overall pick in S57 and is ready to step in and contribute immediately. O’Bigbers isn’t that far behind him and will also be making his debut this season.
So that’s pretty easy, ultimately. The hard part is looking at this and thinking of, well, what do they need? They have forward prospects, as Tsunami, Micro and Cheddar have all been pretty strong earners at this point in their careers. They have the defense prospect needed to fill LeBlond’s spot, and really LeBlond doesn’t even need to go anywhere in the next three seasons. He won’t even be in regression at that point! This team is prepared for their upcoming losses, and then some. Which is smart team-building. This is loss management, basically. Prepare that you may not always have things go according to plan, and they are definitely prepared for things to go wrong and not even feel it hit them at all. That leads to my biggest trouble here, which is trying to figure out what they target in the draft. They own picks 21 and 38 in the draft and should be able to get some solid prospects at those spots. It’s just something that, I don’t know what they do with them. I’d say their best bet is to try and split it between forward and defense. Maybe with Eller announcing his retirement they think about a goaltender like Zhen Roza, the teammate of Micro, Winters and Cheddar. It would definitely make sense, but maybe for a later pick as goaltenders become less valued in the league. Ultimately, I have no idea what they do, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them be the team that jumps on a Jonathon Hagan or Daniel Merica Jr. New England Selected: D - Jonathon Hagan (38), F - Maxwell King (43), F - Francious Gagne (63) I wasn’t that far off, I guess. My prediction that they would be the ones that jump on Jonathon Hagan ended up perfectly placed, as he fell to 38 and New England jumped on him. Their ties to Anaheim have been well documented, and I think at 43 they would have taken Zhen Roza if he hadn’t gone just before. Instead, they get Maxwell King, who may not be the highest earning player, but is somebody active and earning who will be able to help manage the cap to some degree. The team didn’t have a lot of picks in the draft, they had to make them count in some ways. As I said earlier, there wasn’t a guarantee on what they would do as they didn’t have any distinct needs. They have a surplus of prospects, even after expansion, and should be just looking to get the best players available. The fact they continued their Anaheim pipeline and brought in a forward and defenseman highlights they were just grabbing the best players they could, and they got two good ones here. Hagan was overlooked, but should be a long-term asset to the team and is already a top-20 player in terms of TPE for his class in spite of going so late. It would’ve taken a lot for this draft to really go off the rails for New England, and they managed to keep it steady and add to an already deep pool.
![]() PHILADELPHIA FORGE Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) D – Rex Kirkby, (S45) D – Leopold Lockhart, (S46) D – Oliver Klozoff, (S50) D – Rintarou Okabe, (S50) F – Luca Veccelli Prospects: N/A Compared to the other expansion team, this one is a bit different. While you expect a lot of turnover and change season-to-season for expansion teams until they establish their identity, this one feels like they already found that identity to a degree. They only have one forward that I would expect to need replaced quickly. Of course, they could replace others, but they shouldn’t have to that quickly. Meanwhile, their defensive group is … how do I put this? Ancient?
Look, I know Rex Kirkby can still go. And out of the defensemen on this list, he’s the one that I would most expect to see still playing in three seasons. However, regression is only getting harder and harder. There just isn’t that much that can be done about that. I know he is going to work his butt off to continue his career, but the team definitely will have some better options on the back-end. Specifically, Bork Lazer was the top pick in the expansion draft and Adam Friedland went 8th. These are two solid, fairly young defensemen who should have no problem carrying the load. But that load gets really heavy when it’s just the two of you carrying it. Lockhart and Klozoff are definitely at the ends of their ropes, but can at least be serviceable for a couple of seasons while Philadelphia works out what they’ll do to replace them. Okabe is one that I could see lasting to that three season point, though it’s doubtful. At the least, the team has added a lot of character to their locker room to get things kicked off, and that’s always a good thing in the SHL. The question will be how they ultimately handle things from here. They have picks 5 and 25 in the upcoming draft, obviously not swayed by any of the offers from teams trying to get them to pick around their asks. It should be fairly easy, I think at that point. As an expansion team, while they look to need defense more than anything, the ability to bring in a high-earner of any kind is going to be enticing and much needed. So far the top of the draft has 4 defensemen in the top 10 earners, so expect to see Philadelphia jump on one of them. However, only one of those defensemen is top 5, so it could be wise to lean further into the character aspect and get a forward to lead forward. It’s a toss-up really, but I’m going to bet defense for this squad. Philadelphia Selected: F - Evil Allbran (5), D - Ryan Gardner (25), F - Ric Charlesworth (45) Rumors swirled around this team heading into the draft, and with their need for defense there were mocks expecting them to get Maxwell Carrigan, Marcel Beck or Zak Wilson. What ultimately happened is that the team chose to add to their culture first of all and with their top pick brought in Evil Allbran. Allbran may not be the highest earner in the class, but is somebody that adds a good contributor to the locker room who effectively passes the ‘vibe check’ in Philadelphia. The team managed to get their defense they needed at 25 with Ryan Gardner, an agitator out of Quebec City, who came as a great pick considering the dearth of defense in this draft. Their other pick was a more interesting choice, Ric Charlesworth is a S58 who has gone undrafted in back-to-back drafts. After being a top earner at the time of the S58 Draft, Charlesworth was found to have some issues in his game that left him on the sidelines. He’s now 36th in his class in TPE, which isn’t a bad place to be at all. He should be able to develop into a good contributor for the team, and with having to be called up next season can be an immediate replacement for a player like Veccelli for them. It was unexpected to see somebody overlooked for two drafts make their way to an expansion team, but it’s great digging from the expansion GM to make that call.
This team did like Montreal and established the culture most of all, and came out of the draft looking pretty strong in the prospect pool. I wouldn’t be surprised in the next few seasons to see them heavily target defense above all in the draft, but when it’s your first time out you need to get good character guys who can be impactful down the line. That’s what happened here, and all the credit to them. ![]() TAMPA BAY BARRACUDA Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S46) D – Kalevi Karhunen, (S50) RW – Kalevolaripaavo Kaspertommevisnapuu, (S50) G – Ian Venables, (S50) D – Jack Wilson, (S50) D – Flash GOrdon, (S52) RW – Mega Tron Prospects in S57: (S55) RW – Taylor Gervais, (S55) D – Colin Lambert, (S55) RW – Pavel Kharlamov, (S55) D – Adrik Baranov, (S55) D – Joorgustraad DuBolk, (S55) LW – Jesse Seppanen, (S55) D – Igor Victory, (S55) LW – Turg Turg, (S56) RW – KnockedOut ByOvechkin, (S56) C – Aleksander Kozlov, (S56) RW – Vladimir Petrov, (S56) D – Boris Petrov, (S56) LW – Valterri Kauppinen, (S56) G – Phillip Weaver, (S56) G – C.K. Supernaw Picks in S57: N/A This was a fun one back in the day, huh? Going from a team that is overloaded on prospects but in a pretty easily manageable way in New England to, well, this team that was overloaded with prospects and found themselves in a difficult situation because of it. From their list here, Baranov, Turg, Kauppinen and ByOvechkin all played on a different team than Tampa in S59. At this point, they had to work on selling off pieces that are fairly good earners because they just run out of room. This team needs someone to give them a draft pick chastity belt or something. Have them like Bart Simpson -- “I will not draft players that cannot make my team.”
It is definitely impressive to see. This is something that you don’t expect at any point, a team that is so overstocked and overloaded that they just cannot physically fit high earning prospects. I definitely didn’t think it would really happen, I assume they’re going to sell off some older pieces and just commit to their window and then supplement that window with pick trades. Instead, they continually add prospects and then trade them for, well, more picks. This is a dangerous team. This is going to be a very good team in the future, provided they manage their cap very well and are careful not to make too many picks when they can’t really afford them. It’s difficult to manage that. When you look at a team, you think the more picks you make, the better your shot. The shotgun method basically, but money catches up eventually. We’ll see how Tampa handles it, and how from here they get effected by expansion. Players Taken in Expansion: (S54) F – Justin Keahi, (S55) D – Joorgustad DuBolk This is a fascinating haul, one that ultimately comes because of the overstocking of prospects that Tampa has done in a way. Realistically, these don’t look like the best players in the world, but again for expansion you’re looking for those fringe players that can help make a difference. Keahi is 14th in his class in TPE, and while he’s a bit more of a rough and tumble guy, he’s one that can definitely be a good leader for Philadelphia. After getting Okabe earlier, this is just a continuation of bringing in great people who help bring a team together. Meanwhile, Montreal gets DuBolk, who has slowed in his training efforts recently, but is in no way a liability on defense. Still 17th in his class in TPE, DuBolk is five seasons away from regression and is going to be a really useful piece that could easily play second pairing minutes and help out the penalty kill. That’s a super useful player. Both of these are players that maybe aren’t the biggest hit to Tampa Bay, but they definitely have a big effect as both are heart and soul type guys that help keep the pressure off the top players.
Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S50) D – Jakob Hamr, (S54) D – Elwulf Jericson Prospects: (S58) D – Luc Blouin, (S58) D – Finn von Murphenstein, (S58) F – Hunter Sharpe, (S59) F – Marco Barengrub, (S59) D – Ethan Bouchard, (S59) F – Bob Duncan, (S59) G – Podan Podanovic Allow me to reiterate my point above. This team has more prospects than they can do anything with. The good is, they’re in a unique position to really solidify what their window is by settling in on a specific stretch they want to compete for an utilizing all of these assets to really stock up for that time. Will they do that? I doubt it. That doesn’t seem to be the M.O. of their management crew, and that’s fine. Their vision works a little differently. But when I look at this team, I definitely worry about what the cap is going to look like in just a few seasons and what spots they’ll find for people. Blouin was the top pick in S58, and he’s 10th in TPE in the class. Von Murphenstein is fourth in the class. That’s two great defensemen who can help absorb the blow of expansion and replace Hamr. Then you have Bouchard, who is the 14th ranked player by TPE in his class, to take up Jericson’s spot.
On forward, though. I don’t know that they’re all that prepared for the loss of Keahi actually. They moved out some good players like Kauppinen and ByOvechkin just an off-season ago, but now I hear Hunter Sharpe is on his way out due to some personal events. That leaves them relying on some S59s to take that spot, and some good ones of course. Duncan is 12th in the class, Barengrub is 34th. Duncan can take that spot in the long term, but they’ll definitely be in the market for a short-term fix while they wait on Duncan to be ready. Then I could see them moving Barengrub, just as they’ve had to do with others. They just don’t have the room for anybody, really. So we end up in the same spot as New England was where, I have no idea what they go for. They have no needs. They’re going to have four players in regression, and two of them are over 1900 TPE on forward. Do you maybe consider preparing to replace them? Sure, but they’re able to go for another five or more seasons. And that’s where things get really interesting, because while New England is in a spot to get some depth in the prospect pool without really a need and will have a hard time making picks in the second round twice – Tampa has SEVEN PICKS in the first two rounds of the draft. They have no roster spots available, and the next player to enter regression for them is in three seasons, but they have three firsts and four seconds in this draft, including picks four and nine. I don’t know what they do at all, and I don’t envy their position. This is a pick that you’re making that could ultimately end up never playing for you, and that’s just unfortunate for both sides as a player gets excited to go to a team and may not make the team by no fault of their own, and the team does the big show to maybe have no finish with it. It’s amazing what they’ve accomplished, make no mistake about it. I’m not criticizing them for having a lot of picks. I’m just worried about the implications of the salary cap and the ultimate impact they make on draftees as a team that is just a middle man in some ways for many high earning prospects. I’m sure they have a plan, and I’m sure they’ll have it more figured out than what I can tell from a complete outside look, and so I’m just intrigued to see what they do in the draft here. Tampa Bay Selected: F - J.J. James Jamerson Angler (9), G - Olof Karsikko (23), F - Lucas Raymond (29), F - Hail Bingus (35), F - Rinky McDangle (49) Once again, in comes some high end prospects for the Barracuda. This is an interesting one to look at, as they end up with a top ten pick where they get J.J. James Jamerson Angler, who is at a max earning rate currently. They take a goalie in the second round, Olof Karsikko, as their goaltender recently has been wavering in activity, then pull in more forwards in Lucas Raymond, Hail Bingus and Rinky McDangle. All of these are active, good players that should be great contributors for this team. The real concern here is what I had listed earlier, where do they ultimately fit? There aren’t an immediate openings to see for them, maybe some of the older players make their way off the team to make room, otherwise they just collected a lot of prospects and may not be able to find a place for them in their line-up. That could be a bad look in some ways to the prospects, but in the end it is a fine management decision as they get best player available at every pick and continue to build up their depth in their prospect pool. We will see how the cap changes their strategy down the line, but for now they just keep bringing them in.
Now for me to wrap it up. As I said at the start, this is going to be the same in each article I post. The goal being that people understand, this is entirely my own views. Again, I do not have access to the war rooms of any team other than my own. I do not know what they value, I do not know what they expect. I cannot guarantee that this is accurate at all, as the plans these teams have are likely going to be divergent. Likewise, in the next three seasons, a lot of things can change. A lot of these prospects could turn out to be diamonds or could be busts. A lot of the players I listed in danger, may still stick around, as you can see with my review here. None of this is set in stone, so don’t take it that way. This is just meant to be a fun activity of looking through the teams and how they appear to be built for the long haul, and I give a lot of credit to these teams. Some teams I didn’t see the vision before, and now it’s laid bare. Some I saw the vision before, and the vision veered off track. It can be a bit of a battle when you’re a general manager, but this at least gives a way to see a snapshot for the moment. Thank you to everybody who has read to this point, and I appreciate everybody who contributes to this league. I hope you all enjoy it. Quote:Word Count: 4196 An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.
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This is fantastic man. Love this.
We definitely have a neverending logjam here in tampa. But I feel as if that drives internal competition and allows us to move pieces to extend our window for as long as we can properly manage our assets. We’ve seen BUF and HAM win with a similar strategy, they just didnt have the extreme blow up that Tampa did in order to have a million picks at one point, turning into even more picks. Having all those picks let us finally make a massive splash, trading for Liljestrom which is the type of move we’ve always kept an eye out for |
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