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jumpSeat · 07-31-2022, 10:32 AM

They say it's the hardest position to play in professional sports, and perhaps that's part of the fascination with goalies. Might it also be the decorative masks? Each uniquely designed with care to convey a personal style, whilst also adding an element of mystique to whomever embodies the last line of defense. Whatever the reasons may be, most of us love goaltenders and many are fascinated with their odd statistics.

When we look at every day plain stats, it can often be difficult to determine which goalie is truly having a better season than another, especially when one netminder may lead in certain categories but trail somewhere else in others. So the question becomes, how do we weigh each category fairly to establish an accurate overall rating? It's a little like making soup, in that each ingredient has to be just the right amount, not too much and not too little, else the whole broth is thrown out of whack. What we need is a 'Goldilocks algorithm' that takes into account every ingredient whilst also weighing them just right to keep the entire brew in balance.

And so I submit for your consideration the following Goldilocks metric:

| GR+(SV%*100)+SO+/-(W-L)-(GAA*10) | Or in plain English, game rating plus save percentage times a hundred, plus shutouts, plus or minus win/loss differential, minus goals against average increased by a factor of ten.

After pouring over all the stats, I have come to the conclusion that this formula is the most balanced way to measure all of the key goalie performance indicators to arrive at a cumulative total. In other words, this method amalgamates and refines all of the goalie stats down to a single power rating. Because the criteria is being applied to everyone equally, it should produce a fair appraisal of each goaltenders relative standing in relation to each of their counterparts. This should finally allow us to determine which goaltenders are having the best seasons. At least that's the working theory.

As this is my first crack at this sort of thing, we'll start with the Pacific conference of the SMJHL and then go from there. This means we'll be making an in-depth evaluation of every goaltender playing in the Ciarelli and Wollker divisions to see how they stack up against each other. So without any further adieu, let's take a look at the raw data!

[Image: Goalies-Ciarelli-Division-1.png]

[Image: Goalies-Ciarelli-Division-1.png]

As you can see the raw data makes it a bit hard to discern in terms of who's leading who overall. We could make an educated guess based on two or three different stats that jump off the page, but the only way to be sure is to calculate all of them to get the real picture. So let's apply the formula outlined above and then take a look at the individual results.

[Image: Conference_Goalies-1.png]

Hopefully this has helped cut through the fog of war to reveal where each keeper currently stands. That said, I'd like to conclude with a note of encouragement that these numbers are quite capable of significant fluctuation, so we could see considerable jostling for position as the season continues to unfold. So please don't be discouraged if you happen to be low at the moment. Keep practicing and honing your game so you too can rise up the ranks!

Quote:The magic bean counter says: 615 Words

WildfireMicro · 07-31-2022, 10:48 AM

Just doing my best

***RAmenAmen*** · 07-31-2022, 11:01 AM

I'm all for any metric that makes me look better in spite of this awful season. Really interesting work, though, and I'm excited to see more!

***sve7en*** · 07-31-2022, 11:57 AM

07-31-2022, 11:01 AMRAmenAmen Wrote: I'm all for any metric that makes me look better in spite of this awful season. Really interesting work, though, and I'm excited to see more!

Mood

**_Blitz_** · 08-01-2022, 05:06 AM

Interesting to me that this doesn't list Toms Zile, who has one of the best GAAs and the best SV% and shutouts. In fact, he will at least be tied for 3rd in terms of Most Shutouts in the 66 Game Era. Never thought I'd be the guy defending a Falcon, given history around the site, but he's having a very good season and it's hard to ignore.

There's a couple of those names that are inactive and/or have played fewer than 10 games. Personally, I don't put much stock in GR, but I do like SHA and an Average SHA per Game.

No disrespect intended, just an interesting and different way of considering stats than my methods. Goalie stats are rather odd, and it made for an interesting read all the same.

***By-Tor*** · 08-01-2022, 10:05 AM

@Anthique You're a rock star

Credit to enigmatic, Merica, and tweedledunn for sigs

Merica · 08-01-2022, 05:43 PM

08-01-2022, 05:06 AM_Blitz_ Wrote: Interesting to me that this doesn't list Toms Zile, who has one of the best GAAs and the best SV% and shutouts. In fact, he will at least be tied for 3rd in terms of Most Shutouts in the 66 Game Era. Never thought I'd be the guy defending a Falcon, given history around the site, but he's having a very good season and it's hard to ignore.

There's a couple of those names that are inactive and/or have played fewer than 10 games. Personally, I don't put much stock in GR, but I do like SHA and an Average SHA per Game.

No disrespect intended, just an interesting and different way of considering stats than my methods. Goalie stats are rather odd, and it made for an interesting read all the same.

This is just the pacific conference

Anthique · 08-04-2022, 01:37 PM

08-01-2022, 10:05 AMBy-Tor Wrote: @Anthique You're a rock star

Yeah we're doing good!
Didn't expect to be first in someting in my second year, but that's nice!
Let's go Crows Smile

*slothfacekilla* · 08-04-2022, 06:43 PM

I'm shocked BASE PACK isn't last!

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