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Symmetrik · 09-25-2024, 10:42 PM

Considering I’d done something similar for the SMJHL draft (and I think I mocked fairly well with where we are today), I figured I could do another one of these for the S79 SHL draft. I don't know why I thought making massive spreadsheets and writing another 5000 words was a good idea, but here we are.

With almost a full season of earning history, chatting, and playing, there’s a lot more data to go on this time in terms of how to rank the rookies. The choices made by the SHL teams in the draft also have significantly higher stakes, and the needs are not instantly met, so there’s a ton more factors that go into this draft that weren’t present at the SHL draft.

Once again I haven’t had direct scouting conversations with anyone - those will always have a huge impact on where someone is drafted - but I like to think that my history as a GM both here and in other leagues has given me a pretty decent eye for sim league talent. I won’t deny that I have plenty of weaknesses as a GM, and I couldn’t put together winning teams much, BUT I do think I always drafted good players, even if it ultimately didn’t work for the team, the players I drafted were good, active players. (Now I have to live up to how much I just hyped myself up).

One of the major factors in SHL drafting, especially in the early picks, is activity and earning. In the SMJHL you might be able to get away with only doing your AC and training every week, and because of the caps and constant influx of rookies, you’ll be a fine player. In the SHL that won’t cut it though, you’ll fill the bottom of the lineup eventually maybe, but no teams want to spend their most valuable picks on that. Don’t get me wrong, players like that have a spot in the SHL, but when you want to win a cup you need 1500 or more TPE players in your star spots. LAP just won the cup with 5 players below 1500 TPE. 1 of them is the backup goalie. It sounds like I’m saying leading in TPE is an ultimate factor, but it’s not so much the TPE number as it is that you are doing the tasks. 2 players can have 250 TPE, but I’d rank the one who started late and does every task significantly higher on my board than the one who started early and skips every PT and mPT.

Making league money is also an important factor. The cap is always tight, so being able to pay as little as possible is a huge benefit for teams. Media, league jobs, chatterbox are all key ways of making league money, and a good bank balance is a key thing for teams to look for.

In order to assess everyone at this point, and get an idea for how everyone fits these criteria I’m looking for, I made a spreadsheet to track every task players have done, compared to which they were eligible for (for example, a player couldn’t do an AC from before they created). I’ve also noted their bank balance. This data was all taken on right after midnight EST on Sunday the 15th, essentially guaranteeing that I took the data at the time when no one had TPE from the next week, but everyone had TPE from the previous week. The last tasks that were counted on this was PT4, Deep Dives, and the AC/Training from that week.

Recreates obviously have a bit of favour here, since there’s a good chance they have a solid bank, or that they created at the trade deadline to be a TPE leader. There’s a lot first gens can do to stand out even in this, and there are several in this class that I think have done so.

As far as teams and needs, I think realistically, a lot of teams will mostly draft BPA. F or D might play a small factor in some early picks, but I think it’s largely going to be who teams want. We’re talking about players who won’t see the SHL for another 3 seasons, so there’s lots that can change in that time, plus with position changes, it’s always workable as long as you get the right people. Or maybe, positional need matter more because this draft is so strong.

This is an incredibly deep draft in my opinion. There’s a lot of good recreates, there’s a lot of standout first gens. There are 20 players who haven’t missed a task (though this doesn’t account for doing only 1 deep dive, or purchasing only a 1 or 2 TPE training). Every single player in the top 56 in TPE bought full seasonal coaching. The 44 highest TPE players all missed less than 10 tasks. There are a ton of quality players in this draft which makes the mock questionable in a lot of aspects.

Aside from that, the actual approach to the mock was a difficult one to decide. Do I base it on who I would actually pick? Or go against my personal choices and mock a player that I’ve heard is likely to go there? I was originally going to let my personal choices take precedence here, but I think in keeping with the theme from the SMJHL mock I did, I will base it on things I’ve heard & more likely destinations rather than purely what I would do.

1st Overall - Monarchs

- Grindle Waters-Johnson - LW - @Waters - 299 TPE (1st)

Minnesota kind of needs a lot of everything. They have some strong prospects, but ultimately I would say they are in dire need of some true stars. Some franchise faces. I’ll use S60s era Winnipeg as an example - they need to draft their Rashford, sburbine, and jess. Personally, given that sburbine is in this very draft again, I think he is well deserving of 1 OA. Hip Hurts is also someone I would very realistically project here. From what I’ve heard though it will be Waters, which is also likely to be a really good choice. I haven’t shared an LR with Waters in a long, long, time, but from what I’ve seen in S50 and what I know of him, he should certainly be able to carry that label of franchise defining star.

2nd Overall - syndicate

- Jason Bourne - RW - @SFresh3 - 290 TPE (10th)

This is another pick that is based on what I’ve heard, but honestly it would be pretty similar if I hadn’t heard anything. Like I said there are a ton of really good picks in this class, and I think the first round is going to be absolutely loaded. SFresh is one of those, and as my teammate in Newfoundland I’m certainly happy to put him at 2nd in my mock. Chicago has a lot of solid young players, and their defense looks a little more loaded, so they are happy to grab a forward as well.

3rd Overall - Patriotes

- Hip Hurts - D - @juke - 298 TPE (2nd)

Like I said already I rate juke pretty highly, so I would think Montreal would make a huge addition to their team here. The Patriotes loaded up on players over a few drafts in the mid-S70s, so they are just coming into their own now and have a pretty solid roster of the future already. They don’t have any glaring positions of need, so they could go anywhere they want, but I think adding a 2nd good defense prospect beside Cadmael Ixazaluoh is the way they go. And juke is a fantastic user, so it’s just a solid add all around for Montreal. There’s certainly a few good forward options for them and some promising first gens they could pick up here as well.

4th Overall - Rage

- Ima Noobie - C - @YetiTaz - 281 TPE (25th)

Yeti was the player I ranked #1 in my SMJHL mock, and I stand by that. Newfoundland snagged them at 16th overall, which is great since they drafted me a couple picks later. After spending a season on the same team I still consider them one of the best players in this draft. There’s also the Kahri connection, where despite bothering Kahri with a picture of the worst way to eat a Kit-Kat, I think they both enjoy the banter. I imagine Yeti goes highly recommended to Manhattan.

5th Overall - Argonauts

- Barcus Juneau - D - @icewindoo - 292 TPE (7th)

I really have no idea what way the Argonauts are looking to go in this draft, but icewindoo has been a really good TPE earner, and has been doing some really interesting media with creating JFresh card versions for the SHL, as well as investigating the impact of playing defenders on their off-side. I mocked Juneau 9th in the SMJHL, and since that point they’ve stepped up in making media. Juneau could easily go higher here, especially if a team like Montreal is looking to take a first gen. This class is incredibly stacked, otherwise I would say Juneau would have a good chance of going at #1.

6th Overall - Steelhawks

- Normand Marineau - C - @jason97 - 296 TPE (4th)

Hamilton is always kind of a wildcard, which makes it even harder to predict what will happen here. I’m pretty confident in a lot of my mock here, but it could get thrown out the window here depending on what Hamilton does. Hamilton has had a bit of a rep for a long time, so I feel like their pick could heavily depend on who’s personality will fit the best. But I also don’t know if they’re going to do as much scouting as they would need to, so they might make a safer pick. Jason was drafted by & played for Hamilton - including winning a Challenge Cup - on a previous player, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Hamilton goes that direction. Marineau is also top 5 in TPE, so, it works well for Hamilton.

7th Overall - Aurora

- Hamper Linthome - C - @Sburbine - 289 TPE (11th)

I mean, unless Sburb has told Winnipeg he wants a new experience in the SHL, I’m pretty sure this is a lock if he’s there. Me and Sburb spent what, 15 seasons anchoring the Winnipeg blue line together on our last players? Sburb was a war room member, I think an assistant captain, pretty much everything you want a player to be for Winnipeg. If he wants it and isn’t picked before this point, it’ll happen here I imagine. Honestly from a needs point of view, it probably makes more sense for Winnipeg to pick a defenseman, but they have 2 other 1st rounders and they don’t pass up the opportunity to bring back a franchise legend.

8th Overall - Blizzard

- Dejana Kaptina - C - @Valpix - 290 TPE (8th)

I know a lot less about Valpix and Edmonton both, but I basically see this as pretty much exactly the same thing I talked about with Sburb and Winnipeg. Valpix spent most if not all of her previous player’s career as a leader in Edmonton. In this case I know she is not refusing to play elsewhere, but would love to return to Edmonton, so if she is there, this is the pick. Someone else could take her earlier, but with the quality of the draft, I don’t see anyone else taking the risk picking someone with such strong ties to another team. Edmonton has many needs at every position, so positionally it really doesn’t matter.

9th Overall - Aurora

- Kiwi Soderberg-Snooks - D - @Aleris - 288 (15th)

Well well well Winnipeg, here we are again. The first team with 2 picks in the draft. This is where things will really start to get interesting. There’s still some great first gens available, there’s still many recreate options. I think they want a defenseman, especially after taking a forward with the previous pick. There’s 4 good defensive options here, with 2 recreates and 2 first gens. Both Aleris and SchwarzNarr played in Winnipeg on previous players for a time. If they lean for a recreate it’s one of them, and honestly it’s a toss up which. A first gen is either gonna be Wass or Stewart. I’d gamble on the Aleris pick here but this could go any direction. Soderberg-Snooks is a fighter which a tough build to roll with, but still could be a top 10 pick here.

10th Overall - Stars

- Jauhnne Hawky - C - @Brenadyr - 295 TPE (5th)

Toronto has no glaring needs, and all the freedom in the world here to select whoever they want. Brenadyr doesn’t talk much in the rookie server, and I’m not their teammate. So to me they are quiet. But they have exactly the idea of a “put your head down and get the job done” mentality that can be exceptionally good in the SHL. I think Hawky deserves a top 5 pick. But between connections for some players and other teams, I don’t see it happening. They remind me a lot at this point of someone I drafted to Toronto a long time ago, Nobody/Bob Bergen. This is a great pick for Toronto if they make it happen. If Sburbine does not want to return to Winnipeg, this is a high chance for a pick they make at 7th.

11th Overall - Wolfpack

- Jeremy Snugglemuffin III - D - @SchwarzNarr - 283 TPE (20th)

New England will say thank you very much for the SMJHL commissioner. The Wolfpack is in a competing period right now, but their roster is slowly transitioning with an influx of S73-S74 players. They don’t really have any glaring needs as their roster is primed for a mostly slow rotation. It will ultimately come down to who they expect to be leaving, and who they anticipate growing the best of who they already have. I think ultimately they’d rather lean defense as they have both an S65 and S67 player still on the line, as well as an S69 player with only really 1 strong S77 prospect. Plus, with Schwarz still available, I think that makes it easier for New England to pick a defender.

12th Overall - Forge

- Dieter Fruhstuck - D - @bluesfan55 - 294 TPE (6th)

The Forge are a strong team already, though they are aging. With only a single prospect in the pipeline (and it’s a defender), they could really draft anything, but I think bringing in bluesfan all the way down here at 12th is pretty solid for one of the top earners in the class. I think they’d prefer defense anyway, as they have 5 rostered SHL defensemen, and 4 of them at S60s players (S63, S64, S67, and S68). The majority of the players they have from the S70s are forwards, so it is slightly more urgent to have defensemen ready at the SHL level. Blues fits that box and is one of the top earners of the class. I’ve said it a lot, and I’ll keep saying it, but blues is also someone who deserves to go higher.

13th Overall - Stampede

- Chuck Stewart - D - @ghamss - 281 TPE (21st)

I think Buffalo wants a defender, but there’s actually been a little bit of a run on defense here before their pick. I wouldn’t be surprised if they do either of trading out or trading up here, but even if they stay put Stewart is a really solid option at D. Ghamss missed 2 TPE tasks - which, by the way, of all the players before this had 0 missed tasks except Soderberg-Snooks & Snugglemuffin III - but they were the Mock Draft and the Early Bird PT, so they have been consistent since basically the start of August. They are also an HO intern I believe (they’ve approved some catch up TPE in the portal so that is my assumption), so with a decent bank for a first-gen, they also have a good league job and should earn more. Solid pick up for Buffalo if they choose to do it. It’s tough competition against other top tier defensemen, but Stewart could be a dark horse as one of the top defenders.

14th Overall - Specters

- Nanashi Mumei - C - @ValorX77 - 297 TPE (3rd)

Valor has history with New Orleans, so I think he does not fall any later than this. He could go earlier, but I know he’s been a challenging player at times. He deserves to go higher than this, and maybe does, but in such a stacked class I think teams are much less willing to take a chance on someone who hates rebuilding. Team picking high are usually bad, and a lot of times in a rebuild, so that’s a strong risk for a lot of the teams ahead of this pick.

15th Overall - Inferno

- Puddles O’Duckling - LW - @Z-Whiz - 281 TPE (24th)

Puddles O’Duck played 1188 games over 18 seasons all with Atlanta. I don’t think anyone is surprised that they take Puddles O’Duckling here. 1000 games from another Z-Whiz player seems like a pretty sweet deal for the Inferno.

16th Overall - Blizzard

- Abbe Wass - D - @NordicNailer - 288 TPE (16th)

Nordic has been another very quiet, sneaky good first gen. Edmonton needs everything, but they did draft a forward earlier by taking Kaptina, so I think this time they will take a defender. Wass has not missed a single task, they could easily be top 10 if not for an unfortunate score on the mock draft. The only concern - and it’s not a huge one, though it’s there - is a bank with only 8 million. The extra expenses hit hard once you can get that 1 million a week training and 8.5 million in equipment. If they had more money they could go higher, but at this point in the draft, they have the least amount in the bank among drafted players. Make some more money though, and we’re talking about and extremely good pick up at 16th.

17th Overall - Aurora

- Katharina Rosenthal - G - @Symmetrik - 289 TPE (12th)

Yeah so I’ve mocked myself here, but I have no idea. This would be pretty sweet, but I don’t see any other team even considering a goalie this early, and I don’t know if Winnipeg bothers to jump early. They don’t have anyone for the future after Carpet, so they will need a goalie, and they are the first team here to be making their 3rd pick of the draft. They’ve drafted a forward and a defender, so maybe a goalie? They’ve got a lot of good prospects already. I think IF they want a goalie here it would be me, but I think they could just as easily wait until 29 to pick a goalie. I don’t have any better ideas though so I’ll mock myself here for fun. I’ll have a list of honourable mentions that’s 15 players long, so if they opt not to take a goalie, it’ll probably be 1 of the next 3 players, or 1 of the 15 honourable mentions.

18th Overall - Monarchs

- Javelin Bodine - D - @blix900 - 279 TPE (28th)

I think after taking a forward 1st overall, Minnesota would definitely prefer to pick a defenseman here. They have 2 good defense prospects, but beyond that, even among their active SHL roster, they do not have much in the way of strong defenders. I think right now Crazy Tomato II is the only one who could become a top pairing player on a good team. Especially with a bit of a run on defensemen earlier, Bodine is certainly the best of the defense options available, though it wouldn’t surprise me if they tried to trade up with someone like Buffalo after seeing both Soderberg-Snooks and Snugglemuffin III go off the board.

19th Overall - Barracuda

- Jacob Marsh - LW - @Mtstreaks04 - 284 TPE (17th)

Marsh has been another solid, quiet earner. Their bank could use some help but they are in a decent spot. Tampa does have a solid collection of forward prospects already, but we’re at a point where I think the BPA outweighs the need for a defender. Don’t get me wrong, there’s some good defenders left who will certainly show up in the honourable mentions, but I think Marsh is just that little bit safer that it’s worth not drafting by need here.

20th Overall - Monarchs

- Chuck Lumbermouth - LW - @LeakyCink - 279 TPE (26th)

Lumbermouth has earned well, and Cink has been a good chatter in the rookie discord. I think this is a good kind of pick for Minnesota to make at this point. I am concerned about his bank, but I think Cink can be a good locker room presence and I think will make the money up. I expect if Waters goes 1st overall to Minnesota as well, that as a fan of Lumbermouth he would certainly be advocating for him to the Minnesota GMs.

Tip Toasty - @TipToasty - 281 TPE
Slava Kasyanenko - @Rengoku - 274 TPE
Josie Cass - @Unjusttelevision - 233 TPE
Hotdog Lunch - @Papajon - 279 TPE
Djoe Anderson - @MrRuihu - 277 TPE
Jimbob Ghostkeeper - @mikebobcat - 276 TPE
Earl Biggins - @Cootdaddy - 275 TPE

These players are all 1st gen creates who are right on that bubble of the first round. In the entirety of the 20 players I mocked in the first round, they missed a combined 8 TPE tasks over the season. These players combined have only missed 7. Djoe hasn’t missed a single task, they were just a late create and that’s why they only have 277 TPE. Cass was a very late create who’s only incomplete task was deep dives (though they did some, they were denied though I don’t think they should have been). These are all first gens with really good potential, the only concern I have for them is the increased strain on the bank from SHL earning. Their banks aren’t great, they haven’t built up a solid cushion yet. They have less than 38 million combined, with Djoe Anderson accounting for over 11 million of that. Cass has a negative bank.

I think all of these players have strong potential, but I would want to see more money in the bank before I took them in the first round in this class. I feel like I need to reiterate just how deep this class is. Biggins was the 1st overall pick in the SMJHL. He’d be a 1st round pick in a normal SHL draft, I feel, even with bank concerns.

Aslak Hestnes - @ztevans - 267 TPE
Hughes Incorporated - @Lumosityfan - 290 TPE
Darby Reznor - @WildfireMicro - 288 TPE
Christina Fantobens - @Fantobens - 281 TPE

4 recreates who have solid 1st round potential as well, though most also have bank concerns. None of Hestnes, Incorporated, or Fantobens have a huge bank that you’d like to see from a recreate. I think there’s definitely the possibility that they end up in the 1st round, but all of them could easily end up as some of the quality players pushed to the 2nd round. All are good people too, so they will certainly bring something to the team that drafts them if they get their money sorted out. Zach Evans was an SHL Hall of Famer, and was consistent competition for Chris York so I’d love to see ztevans make another legend.

QCCBOT4 - @Evok - 288 TPE
Jon-Isaac Forty-One - @C9Van - 283 TPE

The other 2 goalies who have done pretty much everything. C9 skipped the deep dives, but otherwise both have not missed a task. Like I said before, I think Winnipeg is the only team who has a CHANCE of taking a goalie in the 1st, and even that isn’t a high chance. And they would probably pick me if they do. But if it weren’t for the goalie value, Evok would probably be in contention for 1st overall, and C9 would be on the bubble of the 2nd round depending on if there are any specific team demands like there were in the SMJHL.

Teddy Bloos - @yosh - 278 TPE

Bloos is a great recreate with a great bank, who has a solid chance at the 1st round. This is how insanely dedicated this class has been though. Yosh skipped a week of PTs (mPT2, PT2, Primetime 2). This is the first name I’ve mentioned in this entire article who has missed more than 2 tasks. Skipping a whole week of tasks could be a case of something that happened, busy, vacation, etc, or it could be that it was simply a low priority and wasn’t really thought about compared to other leagues, or other things in life. This is just how crazy this draft is, I’ve named 33 players and none of them missed more than 2 tasks.

Roisin Armagh - @Ara - 256 TPE

Ara as a person seems super engaged in the league, but Ara as a prospect is super concerning. I feel like that’s the best way I can word it, but I don’t even know. I cannot think of many prospects like this, it’s such a unique scenario. Typically, as I mentioned earlier, you get 1st gens who come in and earn well, but they’re not building up a bank, and keeping up earning in the SHL is a concern. It’s the opposite for Ara. She is on the events team, an HO intern (I think, again basing it on having approved catch up TPE in the portal), and seems overall extremely engaged with the league. And then she just… skipped doing PTs. It’s not a specific kind of task either. Ara skipped an entire AC & Training. mPT0-2, PT0-2, and Primetimes 1 through 3. I generally haven’t counted doing only 1 deep dive as a skipped task, but combined with the other skipped tasks, is noteworthy, in my opinion. I think Ara has a serious chance at being a 1st rounder because she has so many league jobs and for all I’ve seen seems like a good person to have in the LR. She did do the final tasks of the season, and since skipping primetime 3 has done every task, including the 2nd deep dive (I manually checked just for this section). She’s 33rd in TPE in the class today, which is a good improvement from where she was when I took the data. Still, missing that many tasks is a concern especially in a class this strong. This is a situation where personal scouting is extremely important, as to if there’s personal reasons for missing tasks, and/or if it’s something that’s expected to be a concern in the future.

So yeah, that concludes this mock draft article I guess. There’s so many players I didn’t even mention in this article. This is just 35 players I mentioned - and those are the ones I feel like could be 1st rounders! The 2nd round and 3rd round are going to be full of talented players who will make great members of their SHL teams.

Quick edit note - Kenneth Lind is a GM pick for Manhattan, which is why there is no mention here (also why the name is red in the spreadsheet below)

It’s always impossible to predict trades, but I can’t even decide which way I think it will go. This class is stacked, so teams don’t want to move because they have a person they specifically want. Or maybe they do move a lot because the class is so strong that even if they don’t get exactly the one they want, there’s a bunch of other good options.

All I know for sure at this point is that I certainly don’t envy any of the GMs trying to make franchise defining decisions in this class. I can barely decide on a mock draft, I certainly don’t miss making decisions that impact an SHL team for 10+ seasons.

And since I suffered building it and looking at it for days, you can all suffer with me and look at this picture of my giant spreadsheet.
[Image: ZbUdPxg.png]

Code:
4750 words

***kahri*** · 09-26-2024, 06:07 AM

the world just wants to see the SHL burn by continuing to manifest @YetiTaz with me

YetiTaz · 09-26-2024, 06:53 AM

09-26-2024, 06:07 AMkahri Wrote: the world just wants to see the SHL burn by continuing to manifest @YetiTaz with me

This is the second mock draft that put me there. Valor-Waters podcast also put me at #4 to Manhattan.

C9Van · 09-26-2024, 08:11 AM

Well written pal. Put a lot of thought into this is what I appreciate about it

MrRuihu · 09-26-2024, 10:35 AM

Nice read, I wish I had that bank as a first gen, I'm a recreate.
thanks for including me though!

***bluesfan55*** · 09-26-2024, 11:03 AM

draft me innit

ty to @High Stick King @EvilAllBran and @Ragnar for the sigs

***Vandy*** · 09-26-2024, 12:37 PM

Scarily accurate, good read

***HabsFanFromOntario*** · 09-26-2024, 12:49 PM

I won't break down our entire prospect pool and young guns we've called up but team needs everything isn't entirely accurate.

Amazing amount of work put in though and fun to see where people project and rank their own class.

SchwarzNarr · 09-26-2024, 12:58 PM

Luke hasn't talked to me yet, so I don't feel like I'm going to NEW.

TheOPSquid · 09-26-2024, 01:15 PM

The effort put into this is amazing and it was a great read all the way through. The league needs more media like this!

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