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Beavie · 12-15-2024, 07:15 PM

Deep Dive 1: The Justin Time Theorem || An analysis of the Goaltender Meta by a Noob

By: Beavie

Using the four most important stats for a goaltender, reflexes, rebound control, recovery, and positioning, I hope not just to understand how goaltenders work in the SHL/SMJHL, but set myself up for future success and know how to develop my player and maximize my TPE.

As a new goaltender to the league who did not have the skill, courage or the budget to play it in real life, I found the process of determining my initial base stats daunting. So I decided to be somewhat balanced at first with a slight push towards two stats. Those ended up being Rebound control and recovery. They each started at twelve.

My logic was that in real life, the most dominant goaltending style in the NHL is hybrid. The days of stand-up goaltenders are long gone and while some goaltenders do lean towards the butterfly, to a degree, goaltenders try to adopt this style which is personified by good reactions, positioning, save choice, and are regarded as having good rebound control, trying to deflect shots into the corner. So having two stats which are regarded as part of the hybrid goaltender box was ideal.

As I asked around and learned the “meta” a bit from other goaltenders, I learned that the “three R’s” of rebound, reflex, recovery, and positioning are the most important. So, I did more research. My hope is that I get a strong idea on how to develop my own goaltender, I looked at the SHL stats and decided to find the best performing goaltender this past season and look at how his stats are distributed.

This ended up being Justin Time. I noticed he was “in decline” but arguably had one of his best seasons. Though he is obviously on a strong team, being a Challenge Cup Champion, I wanted to see how his rating was. Looking at his time in the SHL, this was how his ratings evolved.

Consistently, his highest stats have always been the main four, with position being always a solid 20. There is also a strong consistency in regards to his save percentage and goals against average. In his 13 SHL seasons, only 4 seasons he dropped below .900 save percentage. Given how ‘wonky’ the simulation can be, I consider this as a benchmark of being a goaltender in the top half of the league with many falling in the .800 range.

His career goals against average also sits at a perfect 3.00 which, in regards to this season, would put him 5th for goaltenders with at least 10 games played (Justin himself was second). With each season, there is going to be variance in wins, losses, depending on your team in front of you. But these stats, along with him having 20.33 goals saved above average, shows he puts his team in position to win games.

Also a note is I feel he also is efficient with his distribution. His passing and puck handling, two unneeded stats, along with his poke check being low.

I’ve talked about Justin enough, but what about other goaltenders in the SHL? Well, I do a slight skew towards better performing goaltenders who have their best stats in these positions. An example: Roman Cechmanek II from Texas. He has a lower TPE. He also was on another solid team. But how are his stats organised?

Once again, his overall best stats tend to be the main four talked about, and this past season, he led the league in save percentage and goals against. Though with Justin appearing in more games, he likely would get a Vezina nod if this was in real life.

I’ll also use an example of, unfortunately, a goaltender who did not have a good season, Kay Lee.

Kay Lee lead the league in goals against, and most of her career, her goals against average is high, with it being 5.00. This should not be a surprise as her TPE is low and she’s considered inactive. But this build is a more balanced build. I’ll take note of Season 78 for Roman, where his save percentage was 0.913 at less TPE. Though he only was comparable in the stats for each, and likely on a better team, he still has a bit more of a focus.

So, what about the SMHJL where I’m attempting to make my own player?

Well, the two leaders for GAA and save percentage in the SMJHL from the previous season are Katharina Rosenthal from Newfoundland and Meowlnir Kittenson from Colorado (Who went decently high in the recent SHL draft).

These are their stats:

Katharina Rosenthal

Meowlnir Kittenson

Both applied their TPE efficiently to get those stats their highest. I have a feeling both of them, assuming they remain active, may be solid goaltenders in the SHL.

In the end, is this a guarantee that your player will perform well? No. Much like real life, there are many factors and metrics of measuring goaltenders. Then add the team around them. I also ended up, after writing much of this, finding amazing articles which go in much greater depth, even showing the role of blocker, glove, and low shot into a goaltender build. But for a new goaltender, my main takeaway from this thought experiment, especially as I am under a cap in the SMJHL is TPE efficiency.

Focus on putting your TPE where it will make your player perform well. While not a guarantee, putting them in Positioning, rebound control, reaction, and reflexes to start will help set your goaltender up for long-term success, with the before mentioned ‘extra’ stats of blocker, glove, and low shots helping round out. As for what I’ve done. I got a comparison of how I distributed my stats at first, to how they are now.

After

Of course I got more TPE now (And jeez I wish I had this money in person), but I've already worked towards redistributing my TPE and I feel now I'm in a position where I'm going to maximize the points I get while I'm in junior. After?

Who knows?

Thanks for listening to my Beav Talk.

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