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Deep Dive #1: The Southern Conference Statistical Breakdown & Seasonal Predictions
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Inf1d3lIIHF Federation Head Old Man
While I am aware that in the SMJHL, playing out of position is considered a normalcy based on the draftees and players available, I will be looking into the strengths, and weaknesses, of each team as of December 17th 2024. Please take this as a statistical analysis and my personal opinions based on that only and likely will be completely wrong in the end.
Carolina leads the Southern conference in total team TPE at 5825 but only ranks 5th in overall TPE/player at 291 based on their larger roster size of 20 players versus other teams in the conference who may only dress 17 or 18 players total. They rank 3rd in Forwards, 5th in Defensemen, and 7th in goaltending, giving them a solid. but varied, baseline of player TPE to work with this season. Colorado ranks 5th overall in total team TPE at 5284 and stays right in the same range in average TPE/player at 294, ranking them in 4th. They have the 2nd best group of forwards in the conference and the 2nd best goaltending group as well, but also have to contend with the 7th ranked defensive core, which could leave the goaltenders standing alone on an island if pressed offensively. Detroit ranks 7th in overall team TPE at 4664, a far cry lower than the others so far, but also has one of the smallest roster sizes this season with 17 players, giving them an average TPE per player of 274, which also ranks 7th but gives the team a closely ranked average versus their competitors. They keep the trend going by ranking 6th in forwards, 6th in defense, and 5th in goaltending, but the numbers are close and they can still compete. Maine comes in with the 2nd ranked overall team TPE in the south at 5751 total with a roster size of 18, giving them an average of 320 TPE per user, also ranking them 2nd in that category as well. Maine ranks 1st in forwards, and 1st in goaltending in the south, and rounds that out with a 4th ranked defensive core as well, showing off a solid mixture of positional ability. Nevada brings in a total TPE value of 5014, ranked 6th in the conference. However despite this, they tie for the 2nd best TPE/player on roster as they only dress 17 players total. They rank 5th in forwards and 6th in goaltending, but roster the 3rd best defensive core in the Southern conference, allowing them some wiggle room and to be slightly more aggressive on the offensive end. Ottawa brings a roster of 5532 TPE total with 20 total players, averaged out at 277 TPE/player on the roster, ranked 6th overall. They have the 4th best forward grouping, and 3rd best goaltenders but have the lowest ranked defensive core on the ice, which may cause them serious defensive issues going into the season if they can't work together. San Diego has a total of 5302 TPE on roster with 18 total players, giving them an average of 295 TPE/player, ranked 4th in the South. The have the top ranked defensive core, which they will likely need to lean on exclusively, as they also have the lowest ranked goaltending core by TPE value on roster. The forwards rank 6th, which is on the lower end, so they will have some juggling to do. Finally on just statistical values, St. Louis brings 4556 TPE, the lowest in the South, and averages out at 268 TPE/player, which is also the lowest. They have the bottom ranked forward core in the South but behind them carry the 2nd best defensive core and 4th best goaltending duo. Now that the statistical part is over, here is my breakdown and some graphics to have fun with at the bottom. The Carolina Kraken have a strong overall roster with some sub-par goaltending. They will need to keep the pressure on offensively, as having to contend with penalty kills and being on the back foot could cause them serious issues throughout the season. That being said, I believe Carolina will finish 3rd in the South, and likely have a strong playoff run as they grow. The Raptors of Colorado have defensive issues of their own, but can back them up with a solid goalie duo and a rugged forward grouping that can cause serious issues against other teams on both offensive and defensive regards. Despite the shaky defensive rank, I think they will finish 2nd overall this season behind some possibly explosive scoring, but will see an earlier playoff exit as the defense may not be able to keep up in the long term. The Falcons have a smaller and growing roster of younger players that need to mature before they see long term success. I believe they will finish in 7th in the South. They could quite possibly play spoiler here in the playoffs if they can grow throughout the season but I wouldn't put any money on that, SHL or real. The Timber will see some success this season as they have a robust grouping of forwards to lead the offensive charge and the best goaltending duo (by average TPE) to back them up. The average defensive rank will not hurt them much and I believe they are the team to beat in the south this season because of this. Their worst enemy? Maybe themselves. Don't let it go to your head, ego and confidence can be your downfall. Regardless, Maine has every opportunity to see a trip to the finals in my eyes. Nevada runs all over in rankings and likely ends up 6th overall in the rankings, though they have the chance to grow and also spoil the fun for the 3rd ranked team in the playoffs, Carolina. They can defend well and with some puck luck, will put up solid numbers on the offensive end, but don't bank on them turning many heads overall. The Highlanders will hope there can be more than one (movie reference, please tell me someone got it) as they will likely not be the one to be talked about. Their defensive struggles will plague them and they will struggle to keep the puck out of their own zone because of this. However, they still finish 5th overall and face the 4th ranked team (to be revealed soon) in the playoffs for a series that will, in my humble opinion, goes the full seven games. Who wins? Well, I'll let you know in a little over a month or so... The Tidal bring a solid defensive core to the table and they will need to lean on them heavily to keep in the running. I believe they can score and they seem physical, so they come in 4th overall, leaning on them heavily and scoring opportune goals. Their TPE/player still ranks 2nd which keeps hem higher in my rankings breakdown, despite having the lowest ranked goalie duo, and their series versus the Highlanders will be pretty epic... Finally the Scarecrows will struggle to score this season, with the lowest TPE forward group by far, and though they have solid defensive and goaltending ability, I can't see them erupting offensively enough to overwhelm opposing teams on a regular basis. I do with them good luck this season of course, and I could be very wrong here, but the Scarecrows season is not this one. While this, statistically, was probably pretty boring to read, I had fun making it and I'll add a few graphics on at the end to really break down where these predictions came from on my end. Stay tuned to see part two which will encapsulate the Northern Conference next. ![[Image: kAtr5VI.png]](https://i.imgur.com/kAtr5VI.png) ![[Image: iLorTan.png]](https://i.imgur.com/iLorTan.png) ![[Image: XdA8cLi.png]](https://i.imgur.com/XdA8cLi.png) ![[Image: ZQrAbL4.png]](https://i.imgur.com/ZQrAbL4.png)
HabsFanFromOntarioSHL GM S30 Cup Champion Never Going To Win A Cup
+5 tpe, excessive word count, approved
“The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again. ... There are neither beginnings nor endings to the Wheel of Time. But it was a beginning.”
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