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anywheresoundsnice · 03-06-2025, 12:54 AM

(This article is the full version of my way-overwritten Deep Dive, so I will exclude all the words in that article from the word count in this article. For ease of navigation, the Deep Dive can be found here)

A D-Tour Through Recent Cup Finalists

What kind of defenseman can a team rely on when games matter the most? For this writeup, I will be looking at the five teams that made it to the Cup Finals in the last three post-seasons (S78, S79, S80) and will analyze the top defenseman from each, to discover the ingredients that make for a #1 blueliner who delivers in the playoffs. This kind of inquiry will naturally have imperfect answers, but at minimum it will be a good case study in a rookie defenseman trying to learn from the success of those he hopes to emulate.

The question of how to identify a #1 D is murky enough, as icetime is spread out pretty evenly in this league and the defensive results of a team rely on multiple factors, including tactics, pairings/chemistry, and plain old dumb luck. I also want to be clear about this right off the bat: no player can singlehandedly carry a team, no matter how good their stats are. A great D can play on the third pairing and put up single digits point totals, and a very flawed D can put up great numbers while relying on their teammates to cover up their mistakes.

Still, there are those who have an outsized impact on their team’s success, and I want to see what (if anything) they have in common. I will be looking at each of the five finalist teams’ top defenseman, breaking down their TPE build, playoff statistics in the given season, and how they performed relative to their teammates in that playoff run. Each mini-profile will be structured as follows:

Player Name (Team Name)
1. Why did I label them a #1 D?
2. What kind of TPE build did they have?
3. What do the counting/advanced playoff stats say about them?
4. How did they perform in the Finals?

Without further ado, let’s kick things off with the S78 Playoffs!

S78 Finals (Maine Timber vs Kelowna Knights)

Jacppo Nummilavin (Maine Timber)

1. Jacppo stood out among his team’s D corps with the highest average game rating (overall and offensive), goals/assists/points totals, and plus/minus. He quarterbacked the first powerplay unit and led the cup-winning Timber in average icetime.

2. While somewhat well-rounded as a max-TPE player, Jacppo was clearly built to be a point shooter, with ratings of 15 in shooting range, offensive read, speed, and stamina, and 13 in shooting accuracy. An interesting note is his de-emphasizing of puckhandling, which was tied with hitting and positioning at 12.

3. Jaccpo had 3 goals and 11 assists in 21 games with a +12 rating and a team-high 24 takeaways, solid overall numbers. With all due respect to a cup champion, Quilha Agante winner, and 2x All Star, I was surprised by how unremarkable he looked in underlying metrics like Corsi (4th among D, 6th among skaters) and Fenwick (4th among D, 5th among skaters). He did lead his D corps in shots on goal, but only managed to score on 4.8% of those shots despite the high investment in shooting attributes.

4. Jacppo had a quiet but strong showing against Kelowna, totaling 3 assists and a +6 rating in the six-game series. The Maine powerplay underperformed under Jacppo’s watch, only converting once on their 13 opportunities, but his even-strength play was strong enough to earn him a place in the SMJHL history books!

Chuck Chunky (Kelowna Knights)

1. You thought I would overvalue offensive D and let the solid shutdown players go unnoticed?! HA. Chuck led his team in blocked shots with 85 (the next highest Knight had 46!!!), was second in average icetime and plus/minus among skaters, anchored the top PK unit, and had a team-high 81 average defensive game rating.

2. Chuck is a fairly straightforward defensive D in terms of TPE build, with ratings of 15 in positioning and defensive read and 14s across his other defensive attributes. His physical build is also unsurprising, with high balance and strength. Confusingly, Chuck had the same 13 shooting accuracy rating as his point-shooting opponent Jacppo… which does not seem to have paid off, but to each their own.

3. Across the Knights’ 23-game playoff run, Chuck tallied zero goals, 12 assists, a +10 rating, the aforementioned 85 blocked shots, and a team-low of 16 hits? Fascinating player, although when it comes to the advanced statistics… perhaps I was too harsh on Jacppo. Chuck was dead-last in Corsi on his team, which isn’t too much of a shock given that blocked shots are factored into this score, but his Fenwick was almost perfectly in the middle of the pack for the Knights (4th among D, 8th among skaters), so not exactly an analytics darling.

4. One man’s struggling powerplay is another man’s excellent penalty kill, as Chuck helped the Knights kill off 12 of 13 penalties in the series against Maine. At even strength, however, he left much to be desired with 1 assist and an even 0 plus/minus in six games. Chuck had exceptional defensive performances throughout the Finals, crossing the 90 defensive game rating mark in games 1 and 3, but ended the series anticlimactically with a weak game 6.

S79 Finals (Quebec City Citadelles vs Colorado Raptors)

Rodwin Dionicio (Quebec City Citadelles)

1. Despite playing on the “third pairing” as a rookie, Rodwin led his team in icetime and led the QCC defense corps in goals/assists/points and average game rating (overall, offensive, and defensive). It’s also hard to argue with a Brodie Witzel Playoff MVP finalist! Surely his career will only go up from here and nothing will happen that permanently changes the way we see his legacy.

2. Rodwin’s build in S79 was extremely even across the board, with almost every offensive and physical attribute being a 13, and almost every defensive attribute being an 11 (checking and defensive read were the exceptions at, you guessed it, 13). Jack of all trades, and it seems to have worked out pretty well for him.

3. In 21 playoff games, Rodwin tallied 3 goals, 12 assists, and a +7 rating. A notable highlight of his was a team-high 23 takeaways and a team-low 2 giveaways, showing strong puck management skills. Rodwin was also the first #1 defenseman who performed as I expected when it came to our chosen advanced stats of Corsi (2nd among skaters) and Fenwick (3rd among skaters).

4. As far as big moments go, Rodwin set the tone for the Finals by scoring the first goal of the round on the powerplay 6 minutes into the first period AND taking an unsportsmanlike penalty late in the second period to get his team going. While that goal would be his only one in the 5-game series against Colorado, he tacked on 3 assists and a +5 rating, with generally strong game ratings throughout.

Yuri Boyka III (Colorado Raptors)

1. Yuri led the Colorado D corps in icetime, assists, and average game rating (overall and offensive), and played on both top special teams units. Regardless of how the finals went, the top spot was clearly theirs!

2. It appears as though Yuri was originally built and drafted as a winger rather than defenseman, so this build should be seen in that context, but they were a pretty clear offense-first player either way. They had 15s in getting open, puckhandling, offensive read, balance, and strength, with 11s in almost every defensive category (a defensive read of 14 as the exception) and generally strong physical ratings. It’s hard to call them a point shooter or quarterback due to 13s in shooting accuracy and passing, but that’s the kind of mold they probably fit best.

3. Across 21 playoff games, Yuri had zero goals, 13 assists, and a -5 rating. Their advanced statistics don’t look much better, with a middling Corsi and below-team-average Fenwick. In Yuri’s defense, their PDO (combined shooting % and save %) were the lowest among Raptors in that playoff run, meaning there was some degree of bad luck that could explain the low totals from an offensively gifted player.

4. To be frank, Yuri did not perform well in the Finals against QCC. In the 5-game series, they had zero points and a -3 rating. Their game ratings reflect an inconsistency from one night to the next, and the Raptors failed to score on the powerplay against Quebec City. Peeking outside this journey through the past to find a silver lining, it looks like Yuri found their home as a winger with the Winnipeg Aurora and are putting up solid scoring totals!

S80 Finals (Quebec City Citadelles vs Carolina Kraken)

Peter (Quebec City Citadelles)

1. While his fellow Citadelle blueliner Rodwin was still a major contributor, in the S80 playoffs Peter led his team in average icetime and led QCC defensemen in points, assists, and average offensive game rating. Without spoiling #3, he also DOMINATED analytically.

2. Peter has the most dedicated offense-first build that I’ve seen among defensemen in this breakdown, with ratings of 16 in passing and offensive read, and 15s in getting open, puckhandling, and agility. His defensive ratings all hover around 10, but he compensates with good speed and acceleration. Peter is the model for an effective, playmaking quarterback D.

3. In 23 playoff games, Peter scored 2 goals and 15 assists with a +14 rating, showcasing that slick passing ability. He also had a team-low of 2 giveaways and the second-lowest hit total on QCC (lowest among defensemen). Where Peter really shines, however, is with his advanced statistics; he led the Cup champions in both Corsi and Fenwick, which is to say that when he was on the ice, the team significantly outshot their opponents (including missed shots), whether those shots were blocked or not. Certified analytics darling!

4. Peter had an underwhelming series against Carolina, totaling zero goals, 4 assists, and a -2 rating across 7 games. Still, his top powerplay unit converted on 3 of 18 opportunities, and the insane depth on the QCC blueline meant that he could afford a few lackluster games.

Kenneth Lind (Carolina Kraken)

1. For anyone who was waiting for a Cale Makar-style point-getter to make this list, wait no longer! Not only did Kenneth lead the Kraken D corps in goals/assists/points, but he was FOURTH on his entire team in each of those tallies. He also led the Kraken in average defensive game rating and ranked second in plus/minus.

2. If Peter was the ultimate offensive D build, then Kenneth was the perfect defensive D build. His offensive attributes all hovered around 10, while his defensive and physical ratings were basically 14s across the board, with the exception of 15s in hitting, shot blocking, and acceleration. I had to double check this one a few times in case he redistributed (he didn’t) because he plays on the top powerplay unit and the third penalty kill unit?? That is perhaps the exact opposite of what I was expecting to find after seeing his statistics, what a treat.

3. In 21 playoff games, Kenneth scored 7 goals and 13 assists with a +17 rating. He ranks second on his team for blocked shots at 66 and joins the tradition of #1 defensemen who don’t throw many hits. His advanced statistics are extremely mediocre and middle-of-the-pack, confirming once again that yes, I was way too hard on Jacppo (sorry).

4. In the 7-game final matchup against QCC, Kenneth scored 3 goals, 1 assist, and managed a puzzling -1 rating. After a weak first game, he locked in with a defensive game rating of over 90 in the next four consecutive games, WOW. He slipped up in game 7, being on the ice for 2 of QCC’s 4 goals, 2 goals being the exact margin by which Quebec City would secure their victory over Carolina. But seriously, how did a shutdown D score so many goals??

Conclusions

Firstly, this was just a really fun way to get myself acquainted with recent Finals matchups and some of the awesome players who made them happen (bonus that I got to look at two of my QCC predecessors). Despite whatever criticisms you might see in my breakdown, all of these defensemen have all accomplished a hell of a lot more than I have so far!

Now for some conclusions related to my research question:

1. While both offensive and shutdown D have been top pillars of deep playoff runs, I will give the edge to the defensively responsible ones. This isn’t just because Kenneth Lind hugely outscored all the shooting-accuracy-enjoyers and Chuck Chunky silenced all but one aspiring PP merchant in the final round, but also because Rodwin Dionicio and Jacppo Nummilavin proved that sprinkling some TPE in defensive attributes pays off for offensive D as well.

2. I do not understand why defensemen invest in shooting accuracy. This might be because in FHM I’m so used to seeing D with high shooting range and low accuracy, so the inverse looks wrong, but it really doesn’t seem to matter for playoff scoring. Follow your own path but consider that your TPE might be better spent elsewhere!

3. All of these defensemen invested heavily in physical attributes, whether they went with the speed/acceleration rushing D build or the balance/strength steady D build. None of them were randomly bad in any physical rating.

4. Point totals and plus/minus seem to not correlate with advanced statistics as much as I expected them to. The only top D who really looked like top D on the Corsi and Fenwick rankings were the two QCC blueliners. This might be due to the quality of competition they face, as Rodwin and Peter were both playing on the third pairing in their respective “top D” years.

I could probably keep going, but this was supposed to be a 500-word writeup and it spiraled wildly out of control. Thank you to anyone who read this, I would love to hear your own takeaways or corrections if you think I got anything wrong!

(1669 words excluding Deep Dive content)

*MikeLiut* · 03-06-2025, 01:16 AM

That's a nice one! I love the focus on the D!

TipToasty · 03-06-2025, 06:04 AM

D can be difficult to analyze, so it’s always great to see some media focusing on it. Good read!

*ZootTX* · 03-06-2025, 11:20 AM

This is Deth Klaw erasure

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