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nour · 07-22-2017, 06:16 PM

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Vancouver, BC - Welcome viewers to TSNâ€™s SMJHL playoffs coverage Iâ€™m your host Bob McKenzie. The final matchup of the SMJHLâ€™s semifinals came to a close in a stunning, game 7, triple overtime finale, where the Colorado Mammoths emerged victorious as they move on to face the Vancouver Whalers for the S35 Title. Both of these teams are strong in their own, unique styles of play, but what exactly are their strengths and weaknesses, and who has been a top performer for them throughout their runs? This is TSNâ€™S Statistical Analysis of the Four Star Cup Finals.

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The Colorado Mammoths

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<b><div align="center">The Summary</div></b>

The regular season was a bumpy one for the Colorado Mammoths, who slumped hard going into the seasonâ€™s final games. They finished just under .500 and if Detroit pulled a win in their final matchup, Colorado would have missed the mark entirely. Due to this fall from grace, as well as the rise of Kelowna, many had Colorado on the bottom of their list of contenders for this yearâ€™s title. However, the finals are underway and the Mammoths are ready to give the favoured Whalers a run for their money. A lot of people forget that Colorado held first in the league for a long while, long before STL and VAN were in the conversation for it. Despite their fall from grace, the team has finally started clicking again and has found the perfect time to start doing so. They were underdogs against Prince George, they were underdogs against St. Louis, and now once again they are the underdogs in this matchup against Vancouver

And thatâ€™s exactly how they like it.

<b><div align="center">The Stats</div></b>

Coloradoâ€™s regular season isnâ€™t meant to be the focus of this article, but itâ€™s worth noting that they were second in the entire league in goal scored, averaging roughly 2.96 a game! They also excelled greatly in their powerplay ability, finishing first in the league with a 23.3% powerplay success rate, and the only real lingering concern was their average shots against of 25.32, only better than the Halifax Raiders this past season. However the focus here comes on Coloradoâ€™s playoff performance. Where are they excelling, and where can they be better? Here are the two positive and two negative takeaways from their play through 2 rounds thus far:

+Powerplay
The Colorado Mammoths carry over their regular season success on the powerplay, currently 3rd in power play percentage throughout the playoffs, and only 0.06% back of the 2nd place Prince George Firebirds. How the Mammoths respond to the Whalersâ€™ incredibly strong Penalty Kill remains to be seen, but their success with the mad advantage will be crucial into keeping pace with Vancouver during this matchup.

+Hits
The only category where Colorado holds a statistical advantage over Vancouver, Coloradoâ€™s hitting is a big reason why theyâ€™ve been able to hold their own in two unfavourable matchups for them so far. Despite having a very active or deadly offence, the real strength for the Mammoths comes in their strong defence, which came out in full force during their series against St. Louis. Weather the storm, wear your opponents out, pull ahead, with their league-leading hits per game was the most crucial aspect to wearing their opponents out. For a team like Vancouver, this could be a bad match up for them in the long run if they canâ€™t close it out early

-Shots Against
One big area that needs serious work for Colorado is shot suppression, which became very clear during the series against St. Louis. The Mammoths have allowed the most shots against of any team these playoffs and it almost cos them a series with all the quality chances they gave up against St. Louis. Like weâ€™ve mentioned before, this team could hold out against the Firebirds and Scarecrows, but letting so many shots through simply wonâ€™t do during this series, if the Mammoths are genuinely hoping to succeed. Vancouver will punish them for every mistake they make, and the defence and goaltending can only bail them out so many times

-PIM
Another big aspect thatâ€™s going to need working on for the Mammoths is discipline, especially against a team with a punishing powerplay success rate this post-season. The Mammoths have almost double the PIM per game that Vancouver has right now, and this Whalers team will take advantage of every opportunity if given the chance. Stay physical, wear them down, but donâ€™t play dumb, thatâ€™s gotta be a big focus for them this series.

<b><div align="center">The Performers</div></b>

A good chunk of this playoffsâ€™ top performers are Mammoths, and despite the fact that Vancouver got a bye and theyâ€™ve technically had the earlier start, that shouldnâ€™t discount the play of these Top 3 Mammoths

1. Vratislav ZbynÃªk (RW) - At number one youâ€™d be hard pressed to find a more deserving guy than Vratislav ZbynÃªk. On the Mammoths, he ranks at least third in MOST major statistical categories, including goals (1st), assists (3rd), points (1st), +/1 (2nd), hits (3rd), AND shots (1st). Not only has he been a major force on his own team, but even compared league wide, he leads all skaters in goals, is 6th in assists, 1st in shots etc. it really doesnâ€™t get much better than him, and an argument can be made that if COL goes all the way, heâ€™s a lock for playoff MVP.

2. Finn KrÃ¼ger (D) - KrÃ¼ger is maybe one the most underrated defenseman throughout these playoffs, but heâ€™s certainly making a name for himself as one of the best. His 10 assists is the most in the entire league, and heâ€™s even chipped in 3 goals of his own, being a major force on the teamâ€™s backend. On top of the major minutes heâ€™s played and the slight physicality he brings along with his scoring touch, heâ€™s absolutely one of the best performers for the Mammoths

2. Aleksandr Aleksandrov (G) - Aleksandrov seems like a weird choice to put on this list to those who havenâ€™t followed the Mammoths run that closely. 5th in save percentage and 4th in goals against, the overview of his run has been mostly average to below average for the most part. However, heâ€™s started to heat up at just the right time now, and above all else his endurance has been unbelievable. He leads all goaltenders in minutes played with 839, over 150 minutes more than the second place Sebastian Thompson, as well as facing the most shots of any goaltender with 329. If you donâ€™t believe Aleksandrov is heating up, just ask any St. Louis fan what they think of him.

<b><div align="center">The Conclusion</div></b>

The Mammoths have a chance at one of the biggest upsets in SMJHL history. Theyâ€™re used to the position they face as the underdogs, it hasnâ€™t phased them before and it sure isnâ€™t phasing them now either. Vancouver is a daunting opponent, and the Mammoths are ready to bring on the upset.

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The Vancouver Whalers Whalers

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<b><div align="center">The Summary</div></b>

Where do you start with the Vancouver Whalers? Unlike the thrilling up and down the Mammoths faced, the Whalers were a top, contending team for pretty much the entire season. The real thrill to the Whalers story comes in their final seasons where they battled hard in an almost neck and neck race with St. Louis in the regular season finale. As they SMJHLâ€™s final playoff spots were being locked up, all eyes were on the Whalers and Scarecrows to see who would obtain regular season supremacy. Ultimately, their 2nd place finish caused them to be overshadowed despite the consistent success, surprisingly entering the playoffs expected to reach the finals and nothing more. However, they stand here in the finals after devouring a Knights team that wasnâ€™t prepared for the offensive and defensive masterpiece that is this Whalers roster. They are absolutely hungry for more, and with the Scarecrows no where to be found, it looks like Mammoth is on the menu.

<b><div align="center">The Stats</div></b>

Despite finishing 2nd place in the regular season, it was clear to see who the leagueâ€™s best team was once the stats came into play. The Whalers were first in goals for, and the ONLY team to average more than 3 goals per game. They finished 1st in goals against, 3rd in powerplay percentage, 1st in penalty kill percentage, 1st in shots for, 2nd in shots against and 2nd in faceoff percentage. They finished 4 points back of St. Louis after slumping a bit at the end, but over the course of the full 50 game season, they were far and away the better team. Many had Vancouver as a runner up team to St. Louis in their brackets, but this team has kicked it into another gear this playoffs, and its hard to imagine them slowing down now. Here are the two positive and two negative takeaways from their play through 2 rounds thus far:

+Goals For
Itâ€™s hard to believe the almost otherworldly levels that the Whalers are scoring goals at is real, but the SMJHL stats tell no lies. 3.67 goals for in the post-season is absurd, and yet the Whalers stunned SMJHL fans everywhere when they trounced the Kelowna Knights through sheer force of an unstoppable offence. The Mammoths biggest weak point is their shots against totals, and if the goal scoring remains high for Vancouver, theyâ€™ll certainly be taking full advantage of that.

+Penalty Kill
It was very difficult not adding the Whalers near 30% powerplay success rate on here, but we just couldnâ€™t ignore how unstoppable the Whalers have been on the PK. Through 33 PIM they allowed 0 goals and currently stand at an unbelievable 100% success rate on the PK, which is bad news for a team like the Mammoths who found a lot of success on the PP throughout these playoffs. Kelowna wasnâ€™t able to figure out this Penalty Kill, weâ€™re unsure if Colorado can fare better.

-PIM
Despite being on the safe side with such a great PK, its worth noting that the Whalers took as many penalties in game 1 of the finals against Colorado than they did against their entire series against Kelowna. Against a strong powerplay like Coloradoâ€™s, the team could face a tough time mitigating the chances theyâ€™ll be facing, and the more time they spend surpassing Coloradoâ€™s offence, the less time theyâ€™ll be able to spend setting up theirs.

-Pressure
While this may not be quantifiable stat, its important to mention that in order for Vancouver to get the job done here and take the title, theyâ€™re going to need to be putting a consistent amount of effort in until the buzzer for the series clinching game goes and the clock says 0. The first 3 games against Kelowna were grade-A, consistent hockey, but their last 2 showed a Whalers team that was much more slowed down, with game 4 being the only game this post-season where they allowed more than 4 goals, and game 5 being a narrow victory to advance, which is a stark contrast to the 4-1, 4-2 and 8-4 victories they had managed in the first 3 games. If they want to close this out and win against Colorado, they need to keep the pressure on and really make the Mammoths earn any victory they can manage.

<b><div align="center">The Performers</div></b>

Getting a bye into the second round and only playing 5 games in the semi finals hasnâ€™t stopped Whalersâ€™ players from rocketing their way onto the SMJHLâ€™s playoff leaderboards, and these 3 players are from from done yet:

1. Shoyu Kikkoman (D) - Who else were we going to put here for Vancouver? Aside from a bit of penalty trouble, Kikkomanâ€™s leading his team with 9 points, which is already top 3 amongst defenders in the playoffs this year. Not only is he chipping in really well offensively, but the physical edge to his play has allowed him to keep the opposition at bay, while he continues to flourish. It wouldnâ€™t be surprising to see him eventually top all defenders in points in the coming games.

2. Carrick Murray (G) - Murray was a regular season monster and he hasnâ€™t slowed down since the playoffs started either. He boasts the SMJHLâ€™s best GAA this post season, and his Sv% is not much farther off from Thompsonâ€™s, who he could also feasibly pass should he keep his stellar play up. One could argue the stellar defence does a great job of making him look so good, but at the end of the day, he is the backbone of this stellar team, and arguably the hardest puzzle that the Mammoths will have to solve if they want any hope in winning.

3. Cam Ouellette (F) - Ouellette has been the best forward for his team in terms of production and its a no brainer. Heâ€™s producing on his own, heâ€™s setting his teammates up, and heâ€™s tied with his teammate Kikkoman in hits at 10 through his playoff run thus far. The big stat to look at here however is his team-leading 24 shots, a total which indicates heâ€™s gonna be putting a lot more shots in the near future. Not to mention heâ€™s already tied for 4th among right wingers for points, and could feasibly pass players who are no longer in the playoffs, like Harrak or Ozolins. Not bad for a third line winger!

<b><div align="center">The Conclusion</div></b>

The Whalers are the cup favourites right now and thereâ€™s no reason they shouldnâ€™t be. The Mammoths will be a tough competitor to be sure, but Vancouver has a fantastic team built here, and the depth that just screams theyâ€™re gonna go all the way. The public loves an underdog story, but this team is dedicated to making sure it doesnâ€™t happen

And so far, it looks like it wonâ€™t

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Who do you think takes this matchup, and how long does the series go? Early choices for playoff MVP? Let us know down below! This is TSNâ€™s Bob McKenzie signing off.