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MWHazard · 11-04-2017, 10:26 PM

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SEASON 37 SHL 1st ROUND PLAYOFF PREVIEW

BY COLIN REED

With the conclusion of the Simulation Hockey League’s thirty-seventh season, the playoff field is set to determine who will capture the Challenge Cup. This year’s playoff field features some of the usual suspects, such as the Calgary Dragons, Texas Renegades, West Kendall Platoon, Seattle Riot, and Toronto North Stars, but also features some teams on the rise in the Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Chiefs. The surprising Buffalo Stampede to round out the group of teams that will be continuing their season. Notably absent are the New England Wolfpack, who may be on the decline after many years of strong showings and multiple titles. Big changes may be on the way in Boston. The Hamilton Steelhawks were the early surprise of the Eastern Conference but faltered down the stretch despite the surprising switch of defenseman Ben Dover to forward. The Buffalo Stampede, despite their somewhat tumultuous history and recent management change find themselves in the fourth spot in the East. Their reward is a matchup with the renewed West Kendall Platoon. The Minnesota Chiefs will face down the S35 champions, the Toronto North Stars. In the West, the league-leading Seattle Riot face the seemingly ageless Calgary Dragons, in a rematch of last season’s first round showdown, albeit with the seeding reversed. The Winnipeg Jets will face the defending champion Texas Renegades in another rematch. Last season, the Dragons narrowly prevailed, while the Renegades started their title run.

One thing to note. Los Angeles fans (and team management, I’m sure) must be frustrated with missing the playoffs in the Western Conference. The Panthers would have finished 3rd in the Eastern Conference with their record. However, they would have played a different schedule, so it’s hard to tell how things would have really played out. The Western Conference has often been considered the tougher half of the league, though this season it would really appear to be simply the top-heavier of the two. All four playoff teams in the West are about on par with the top two teams in the East. However, the bottom two teams in the West, the Edmonton Blizzard and San Francisco Pride appeared to be weaker than the non-playoff teams in the East. All in all, whoever comes out of each conference won’t be overmatched or under-matched in the Challenge Cup Finals. However, any of the four teams in the West feel like reasonable guesses at a champion, whereas in the Eastern Conference Toronto and especially Buffalo seem like long shots.

Intrigue abounds about these matchups, given the familiarity in the West, and how wide open both conferences look for the taking. We’ve got a breakdown of each first round matchup below, and predicted winners. Let’s start with the Eastern Conference.

#1 West Kendall Platoon Platoon

vs.

#4 Buffalo Stampede
This matchup on the face of it looks like the most lopsided of any in these playoffs, though that’s not to say this series couldn’t go the Stampede’s way. The Platoon were a deserved top seed in the east after an excellent season. West Kendall finished with 29 wins, 16 losses, and 5 overtime losses, good for 63 points. That’s the third-best mark in the league. The Platoon in previous seasons have been a defensive team, often struggling to score goals. Not so much anymore. West Kendall scored the second-most goals in the league, at 3.40 per game. They still maintained a strong defensive record as well, allowing only 2.76 per game. That differential is second-best in the league. The Platoon were excellent at generating shots on goal at 35.92 per game- they allowed the fewest shots against per game at 28.18. West Kendall appears solid in all facets of the game, and had top half marks both on the power play and penalty kill. The Platoon enjoyed strong seasons from nearly all of its players, but how about the season veteran center Mikko Linna had? 27 goals, 33 assists to reach 60 points. Linna also played a strong physical game, racking up 115 hits, all in a tidy 23 minutes per game. Linna’s 1.03 points per 20 minutes is 4th best in the league, and really only surpassed among starting players by Calgary’s Randy Randleman. The Platoon benefit greatly from the services of rising star Ludwig Koch Schroder on the blueline. West Kendall also saw another strong season from the always underrated Klaus Wagner. Koch Schroder had a quieter offensive season than his amazing effort last season, but tied Linna for the team lead in +/- at a resounding plus-18. While goaltender Matt Lewis-Flood had a respectable season that included four shutouts, the Platoon are strongest when playing aggressive hockey, utilizing their talented skaters to the fullest. Therein lies the Platoon’s potential downfall. West Kendall has a bit of a discipline problem, averaging eight penalty minutes per contest. That’s third-worst in the league, and the worst of any playoff team.

Let’s talk about the Stampede, who many expected would be hitting the links instead of the ice after the regular season concluded. The Stampede snuck into the playoffs with a record of 25 wins, 23 losses, and 2 overtime losses, good for 52 points. That mark would have finished 6th in the west, but Buffalo won’t care much about that if they can make some noise in this year’s playoffs. The Stampede have the worst goal differential of any team in the playoffs, and the only negative mark at minus-10. That’s in comparison to the Platoon’s plus-32. Buffalo struggled often to score goals this season, and while their goal prevention was adequate, it pales somewhat when compared to other playoff teams. The Stampede averaged 2.92 goals per game, good for 9th in the league, while giving up an average of 3.12 per game, good for 10th. Buffalo’s special teams did not do them many favors, as they finished near the bottom of the league in that department. The penalty kill is quite susceptible to lapses, and West Kendall’s sixth-best power play will look to take advantage. Buffalo did however have the third-fewest penalty minutes per game, at 5.66. The Stampede finished only above the sluggish San Francisco Pride in shots on goal per game, at 27.64. They also allowed 31.98 per game, finishing 11th. All told, it’s hard to find much the Stampede do well, aside from their discipline. Their top line of Nicolas Winter, Jack Burton, and Maximilian Wachter did provide a spark, however, with all three finishing above 40 points. Top defenseman Alexis Metzler struggled in his own end, with an ugly minus-20 playing a rugged 26.67 minutes per game. But Metzler did put up a strong 41 points including 10 goals, and young blueliner Charles Walker had a solid 29 point effort, with a plus-9 rating. Goaltender Casey Holmes was serviceable in net and racked up the most minutes of any goaltender in the league. Interestingly enough, the Stampede had a losing record at home of 11 wins, 13 losses, and 1 overtime loss. They’re the only playoff team to possess such a mark. They did, however, play plus hockey away from home, gathering 14 wins, 10 losses, and 1 overtime loss. The Stampede played West Kendall surprisingly close during the season, and they’ve got a bit of upset appeal for that reason. But one of those wins came via the shootout, and one wonders if they’ve got the ability to stand up in a seven-game series.

How West Kendall Could Win: The Platoon show up and play their game. A series win in reasonably short order for West Kendall, who have too complete of a team to go down to the Stampede. Aggressive hockey and conversion of chances get the job done.

How Buffalo Could Win: The Platoon come out flat, and penalties do them in. Buffalo takes advantage of some power play opportunities to overcome their likely shortcomings even strength.

Prediction: West Kendall in five games.

#2 Minnesota Chiefs Chiefs

vs.

#3 Toronto North Stars

A matchup that should offer a lot of intrigue, the Chiefs and North Stars will face of in a battle of teams that play contrasting styles. The Chiefs finished the season with 28 wins, 17 losses, and 5 overtime losses, good for 61 points. That’s the fourth-best mark in the league and represents the continuation of renewed success the Chiefs have found in recent campaigns. The Chiefs had the East’s staunchest defense this season, allowing just 2.56 goals per game while scoring 2.96. The Chiefs were decent at generating chances with 31.06 shots per game, but shined more at shot prevention, allowing a third-best 29.46 per game. The Chiefs were led by offseason acquisition Sebastian Strange in points, and Strange really made his GMs look good, racking up 23 goals and 37 assists for a total of 60 points. Strange also racked up an astonishing league-leading 249 hits and carried a strong plus-26 mark. They’ll be reliant on him and his winger Terrance Nova to provide offense. The top pairing of the ever-present Alonzo Garbanzo and Chris Crutchfield has served the team well. Garbanzo’s play in particular stands out given his contribution of 47 points, and the pairing combined for 185 hits and 133 blocked shots and a very strong plus-minus of plus-36 combined. In net, the tandem of Andersson and Wahlgren both posted strong numbers. Andersson started 42 of the team’s games, finishing third in save percentage, second in goals against average, and led the league with five shutouts. He’ll face stiff competition for the McBride Trophy, but should see a nomination. The Chiefs do lack some depth beyond their stars, but ultimately they’ve been able to ride that talent to a strong finish, and should be a tough out if they can maintain their goal prevention. Minnesota won three of six against Toronto, but actually had a minus-six goal differential in those games. They gave up nearly four goals a game in those contests.

The North Stars, in contrast, live and die by their scoring ability. Toronto finished with 25 wins, 21 losses, and 4 overtime losses, good for 54 points. While that mark may not impress some, The North Stars went winless in their two shootouts and managed to win four of their six overtime games. They’ve got some of their clutch gene left over from the magical comeback two seasons ago to win the Challenge Cup Finals against the now relocated Portland Admirals. The North Stars are an offensive dynamo, scoring 3.38 goals per game, buoyed by their power play, which sits at a third-best 23.57%. On the flip side, the North Stars have also given up 3.38 goals per game, giving them a goal differential of exactly zero. They generate 33.20 shots per game, and allow 30.70 shots against per game. That small shot differential has given them what they need to push above parity in their results. One area where the North Stars also have a weakness s on the faceoff dot. Toronto wins just 48.19% of their faceoffs, good for second-worst to in the league. The Minnesota Chiefs, by comparison, win 51.55%, good for third in the league. Toronto’s longtime star forwards Kristian Eriksson and Damien Wert both put up point per game paces or better. While Eriksson isn’t the two-way star he used to be, the veteran put up 21 goals and 34 assists, good for 55 points. Eriksson also was the only member of the North Stars forward group to have a positive plus-minus, belying the North Stars’ sometimes shaky defensive play. Blueliner Marc-Andre Malkin exemplified that attribute, as he finished with a minus-8 rating. However, Malkin racked up an astonishing 17 goals from the blueline, including 7 power play goals. Malkin also dished 33 assists to make an even 50 points. Whether he is rewarded with a Stevens trophy will be quite interesting to see play out. The North Stars continue to rely on Challenge Cup hero Mark Harter, who struggled mightily this season, posting a sub-.900 save percentage and a goals against average of 3.10. Nevertheless, the North Stars head into these playoffs feeling as if they can at least score goals with the likes of anybody they may face. Whether they can prevent them is another matter entirely.

How Minnesota Could Win: The Chiefs stymie the North Stars offense, and pepper Harter’s net with shots. Andersson stands tall, and Sebastian Strange takes apart the Toronto blueline corps. We see a Chiefs team that has gotten back to the top of their game. Toronto can’t keep the Chiefs out of their zone, and suffer for it. The Chiefs avoid disaster and don’t get sucked into too open of a game.

How Toronto Could Win: Toronto comes out guns blazing and catch the Chiefs early. The series heads to Toronto with the Chiefs trailing 2-0, and the North Stars are able to win a couple of wild games to close things out before the Chiefs can refocus and grind out results. Toronto suddenly looks like the team nobody wants to have to defend against. They’re playing with house money.

Prediction: Minnesota in seven games.

That takes care of the East. If the predictions play out as above, it’ll be West Kendall against Minnesota for entrance to the Challenge Cup Finals. That series would be extremely even, and might come down to a Game 7 showdown. Slight edge to the Platoon given their balance and greater offensive upside.

#1 Seattle Riot Riot

vs.

#4 Calgary Dragons

The Riot were the league’s top team during the regular season, and they’ll go into a rematch with the Dragons feeling as though they have the upper hand. Seattle finished with a record of 35 wins, 12 losses, and 3 overtime defeats, good for 73 points and the President’s Trophy by an eight-point margin. The Riot had the league’s best goal differential at plus-46. The Riot averaged the fourth-most goals per game, at 3.38, but even more impressive is their goals against mark of 2.46 per game, best in the league. The Riot benefitted immensely from a stellar power play that led the league at 25%, and a strong penalty kill that was third in the league, at 83.24%. Seattle racked up 33.36 shots per game, and gave up just 29.76. They post strong numbers in nearly every category, and have very little weakness in their game. The one downside apparent at the team level is discipline, as the Riot had 7.68 penalty minutes per game. Only West Kendall had more among playoff teams. The play of center Jonathan Lundberg cannot be overstated. Lundberg had 17 goals and 34 assists, good for 51 points. Lundberg teed up 195 hits on the season, and was +15. He did take 88 penalty minutes, but all in all he’s a Dar Trophy nominee (perhaps losing it to Sebastian Strange or Zach Evans). The Dragons have their work cut out for them. Perhaps the only weakness of the Riot roster is their third line of Mercer Church, Louie Garrett, and Cory Knouse, which contains two rookies in Church and Garrett. The Riot’s best defenseman, Viatcheslav Orlov is not known for his scoring talents, but posted solid numbers with 5 goals and 28 assists to reach 33 points. He had 152 hits, and carried a strong plus-21 mark from the rear guard. Goaltender Michael McFadden is an assured McBride Trophy nominee, and has a strong case to win it. His .920 save percentage and 2.17 goals against average should translate to a nod.

Calgary’s beloved team secured yet another playoff berth, edging out the Los Angeles Panthers by a mere point. The Dragons won 25 times, lost 19 times, and had 6 overtime losses to finish with 56 points. The Dragons pencil out as a plus-18 squad with a potent offense and a fairly average defense. Calgary scores 3.34 goals and surrender 2.98 goals per game, both marks in the lower top half. They have similarly-placed marks in terms of special teams. Calgary has been the sort of team this season that is good but not great on offense, but benefits greatly from a couple star players. Randy Randleman is their undisputed superstar, and he scored a whopping 27 goals and dished out an amazing 41 assists, to finish with the league lead at 68 points. Randleman also had a solid 116 hits. He’s been the best player in the league this season in some people’s eyes. His winger Joe Kurczewski has broken out in a big way as well, putting up a monstrous 28 points and 29 assists, for 57 points. He’s Randleman’s successor in a lot of ways. Calgary’s defense has been fairly lackluster, though veteran Michael Boychuk did manage a plus-8 rating, 139 hits, and 84 blocked shots. The Calgary netminder duo of Hocolate and Wong have been mediocre, but Calgary did manage to navigate the season and land themselves in a playoff series, so ultimately it’s all worked out. Calgary took Seattle to overtime three times in six games, winning one of those in the extra period and one in a shootout. They scored a lot of goals in those games and gave up a lot. Calgary probably would love to see these games get high-scoring, given their offensive talent.

How Seattle Could Win: Don’t choke. The Riot are headed for the second round as long as the coaching staff doesn’t tinker with things too much, or the third line doesn’t get exploiting. The Riot win if they win their top-end matchups and don’t fall behind early. It’s looking good in Seattle.

How Calgary Could Win: If that top line starts rolling, the Riot’s defensive group is solid, but not elite. It won’t be able to completely protect McFadden, so if he’s not on, we could have an upset brewing. Calgary’s still got something left in the tank and they won’t roll over just because Seattle’s the top seed.

Prediction: Seattle wins in seven games.

#2 Winnipeg Jets Jets

vs.

#3 Texas Renegades

The Jets with their elite group of forwards and transitional defensive corps have played unorthodox hockey this season, yet it’s worked well for them. They head into the playoffs with the second best record in the league at 32 wins, 17 losses and 1 overtime defeat, good for 65 points. The team posted a plus-31 differential, largely on the back of their league-leading 3.44 goals per game. The Jets did post a goals against average of 2.82, good for fifth-best, but this team lives and dies with its scoring ability. The Jets average 35.92 shots, over two shots more per game than the next best team. They allow just under thirty shots per game, at 29.86. Winnipeg has struggled to close out games at times, likely due to the fact that they essentially roll only two lines of forwards. The team has leaned on its forward talent to the extreme, and it’s paid off for the most part. The Jets have mediocre special teams at best this season, but mitigate their penalty kill’s struggles by incurring just 5.18 penalty minutes per game, the best mark in the league. Winnipeg boasts five of the top 13 scorers in the league, driven by those heavy minutes. While they do not have the highest-usage player in the league (That’s Nikolaus Scholz of Edmonton), superstar center Jason Visser plays 28.71 minutes per night. He put up 60 points off 24 goals and 36 assists, and was a plus-28. His linemates Corey Bearss and VLAD McZehrl both posted extremely high totals as well, with Bearss at 57 points and McZehrl at 63. McZehrl was the only player in the SHL to eclipse both thirty goals and thirty assists. On the blueline, Max Weber put up another quiet but effective season. Weber had 42 points after putting up 49 last season, this time off the back of 12 goals and 30 assists. Weber was a modest plus-1, but continued to improve his game in all areas, playing 25 minutes per night. While he likely won’t earn the first Stevens nomination of his still-young career, Weber has been as advertised after the Jets acquired him from what is now the San Francisco Pride. Lukas Berger, in his final year as Jets starter put up respectable averages. What this comes down to is simple. Can the Jets finish games? Their defense has been respectable, their forwards have been dominant. If they can hold the leads they often build, they’ll go far.

The Renegades, your defending champions, had a quiet follow-up campaign. They won this series last season after going down 2-0 in dull fashion, winning four straight one-goal games. Texas finished with 27 wins, 19 losses, and four overtime defeats. That pegged them at 58 points, good for fifth overall. The Renegades had a slight plus-2 margin for a goal differential, and played strong hockey at home, but less so on the road. Texas averaged 3.10 goals per game, but gave up 3.06. They benefitted strongly from their 23.93% power play, good for second in the league. The Texas penalty kill was fairly mediocre, finishing 9th. Texas succeeded by limiting shots, keeping teams to 29.20 per game, but they did post fairly average shot totals, at 31 even per game. Ultimately, Texas is a hard team to evaluate. They hovered around the third seed all season, and had no fifty-point scorers. Jack Durden led the team in points with 49, and Geoffrey Allen was the team’s lone twenty-goal scorer, with 21. The team is fairly deep, and despite the Renegades defense corps posting some perhaps disappointing numbers, the team is once again in the playoffs. The bottom half of the Texas roster was lackluster, but the team may shorten up their minutes in the playoffs. If Texas’s power play gets hot, they might repeat. If it’s not as dynamite as in the regular season, they’ll likely see a quick exit. The Renegades struggled to score goals against Winnipeg in the regular season, managing just thirteen goals in their six games. They did, however, manage to win two of the contests despite their offensive struggles.

How Winnipeg Could Win: The Jets forwards prove too much for Texas’ good but not great squad, and Berger holds the fort well enough to make the leads stand up. The Jets stay out of the box, like they have all year. This time, the Jets don’t squander late advantages and reach the conference finals looking to ride their core to a title.

How Texas Could Win: Texas’ power play goes to work as the Jets can’t keep their hands to themselves and get goaded into a slugfest. Texas keeps the Winnipeg forwards down to a dull roar, and Pel stands tall to keep things in check. Jets go back to the drawing board, Texas to the conference finals.

Prediction: Winnipeg in six games.

The West shapes up to be a battle between the top two seeds, as predicted in the East. While going chalk seems boring, the fact is that we still have a very even set of teams in the field. These margins are thin. Toronto and Calgary make for attractive dark horses, especially if they win their first series. The final rankings?

1. Seattle
2. West Kendall
3. Winnipeg
4. Calgary
5. Minnesota
6. Toronto
7. Texas
8. Buffalo

It’s too bad that Calgary faces Seattle. While the Dragons could of course prevail, the fact is they’re still dangerous and probably could defeat any of the teams in this postseason. Toronto becomes quite scary if they can tighten things up in the playoffs. West Kendall and Winnipeg look like favorable candidates to advance due to their matchups, especially West Kendall, but the Platoon look like even stronger favorites due to the fact that they won’t have to play Seattle until the finals. If Buffalo pulls off a shocker in the first round, the East becomes an absolute free-for-all. If Calgary does the same and knocks off the top seed, Winnipeg perhaps jumps to the forefront as the favorite for the title, regardless of the West Kendall result. Keep an eye on the Chiefs goaltending situation. They’ve got an extra card to play over their fellow competitors, having two strong goalies. If they falter, it could spark a comeback. We’ll see how it plays out on the ice.

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dizzyDC · 11-04-2017, 10:32 PM

I am a weakness, hooray!

*thedangazone* · 11-04-2017, 10:52 PM

Quote:Originally posted by dizzyDC@Nov 4 2017, 09:32 PM
I am a weakness, hooray!

You make my heart weak Wink

dizzyDC · 11-04-2017, 10:55 PM

Quote:Originally posted by TheDangaZone@Nov 4 2017, 09:52 PM

You make my heart weak 

No no. I am bad, the article says so.

sash · 11-04-2017, 11:01 PM

Dizzy is elite plz

ztevans · 11-04-2017, 11:11 PM

Quote:Originally posted by dizzyDC@Nov 4 2017, 09:55 PM

No no. I am bad, the article says so.

tfw you needed seven points in the final three sims at 28 mpg to post a better p/20 than the "bad" player on the other team.

dizzyDC · 11-04-2017, 11:14 PM

Quote:Originally posted by ztevans@Nov 4 2017, 10:11 PM

tfw you needed seven points in the final three sims at 28 mpg to post a better p/20 than the "bad" player on the other team.

Look, I don't make the rules here. It's what it says.

Andy · 11-04-2017, 11:21 PM

To be honest I mostly only read the Chiefs section but to be honest the bits I read elsewhere this is excellent

r1c3bowl22 · 11-04-2017, 11:29 PM

Quote:Originally posted by Andybj@Nov 4 2017, 10:21 PM
To be honest I mostly only read the Chiefs section but to be honest the bits I read elsewhere this is excellent

This must be one of the most honest one-liners in all of SHL history.

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