With the exception of my own team, the one I tend to pay the most attention to is Toronto. Yes, that’s kind of sad. Realistically, though, it does make sense. After all, we are in the same conference, and have been fairly comparable over the past few seasons. As depressing as it is, I consider them a rival. The last two years, I’ve considered Toronto beneath Buffalo in talent, so confidently so that at the beginning of last season I even ranked Buffalo a tier above Toronto and placed the North Stars in the same tier as Seattle.

The season before I wrote an article on how lucky they were because they were doing (very) well. After writing about their luck, Toronto did regress considerably, and I wrote the whole thing off as a fluke. Then, the next season, they beat Buffalo, a team I considered to be in a higher tier. That warranted another look, so I went a little more in-depth.

Before I begin, a very special fuck you to <a href='index.php?showuser=2458' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-13'>Symmetrik</a>, as he has replaced 2/3 of his skaters from last year, which made this take a lot longer. They were good moves (mainly seemed to be call-ups), and Toronto looks a lot better off for the future, but it just meant more work for me.

In order to save time looking up players, I only looked at the top 9 forwards and top 6 defensemen on each team. I used roster pages to determine TPE, though obviously the active players averaged lower values throughout the season.

Preliminary totals:
Buffalo totaled 12,981 TPE across their top 15 skaters. Toronto totaled 8,830. Bit of a difference.

Clearly, Buffalo had a lot more TPE. They should be better. However, despite the difference in TPE, there is an even bigger difference in how it is distributed. Toronto is a very top-heavy team that also had basically all of its production come from their forwards, whereas Buffalo actually finished the season with roughly the same TPE on their second line as their first, and relied far more on defensemen. Some facts to illustrate that:
Toronto had 2 forwards with over 25 minutes per game. Buffalo didn’t have a single forward with 22.5.
Toronto’s best defenseman (in points) was 6th overall on the team, outscored by every first line forward and two second line forwards. Buffalo, conversely, had two defensemen in the top 3 of team scoring.
Toronto’s top 3 forwards averaged 63.7 points. Their bottom 3 forwards averaged 10.7 points.
Buffalo’s top 3 forwards averaged 27.3 points. Their bottom 3 forwards averaged 14.3 points.
Toronto’s top 6 defensemen totaled 88 points. Buffalo’s top 6 totaled 123.

Despite being able to lazily lump these teams together as just bad teams, they are very different animals. Now, as you may have noticed from the first “fun fact,” Toronto gives their studs more time on the ice. For a top-heavy team, this is a viable strategy, and clearly it worked for them. However, since their higher-TPE players are on the ice more, is the TPE gap between each team’s roster comparable to the amount of TPE each had actually had on the ice?

I took each of the top 15, noted their TPE (again, using the last roster update pre-playoffs) and multiplied that by the percentage of time they averaged on the ice. Result? Buffalo averaged 4519.5 TPE of skaters at any one time. Toronto averaged 3176.4. Still a significant difference, but nowhere near as pronounced. This means Toronto managed to get 36% of their TPE actually in play, compared to 34.8% for Buffalo. It gets weirder, though.

Next, I averaged it by forwards only, since Toronto’s forwards were their claim to…relevance. Toronto’s forwards averaged 2405.6 TPE on the ice. Buffalo averaged only 2316.2. Honestly, I think these numbers far better explain the final standings better than any others. (By the way, if you are too lazy to do the math, that means Buffalo’s defensemen averaged 2203.3 TPE vs Toronto’s 770.8)

So, what have we learned? A quality top line of forwards appears to make a much larger difference than quality depth, and probably more of a difference than the second and third line combined. I would say that since top liners are generally PP and PK lines as well, and those situations are far more likely to produce a score for or against, that the observation does make sense. Separately, it seems that forwards may have a stronger correlation to team success than defensemen, though I would definitely need to look at other teams to validate that (sounds like I have a new project).

No matter what, Toronto has taken limited overall talent and done an impressive amount with it, and I will be adapting the way I evaluate team talent as a result of what I’ve seen from them.

Let me know if you have any questions and thanks for your time.

Buffalo and Toronto gonna be the primetime rivalry of the S40's SHL decade

bet on it

KARI KEKKONEN | D | RETIRED
NAME: Kari Kekkonen
BIRTHPLACE: Oulu, Finland
HEIGHT: 6'1"
WEIGHT: 185 lbs
NUMBER: 33
------------------------------------------------------------
SMJHL CAREER STATS
S19 KEL: GP: 40, G: 10, A: 26, P: 36, +/-: 16, H: 42

SMJHL PLAYOFF STATS
S19 KEL: GP: 6, G: 0, A: 6, P: 6, +/-: 0, H: 6
------------------------------------------------------------

KAAPO KEKKONEN | C | RETIRED
NAME: Kaapo Kekkonen
BIRTHPLACE: Helsinki, Finland
HEIGHT: 6'3"
WEIGHT: 210 lbs
NUMBER: 19
------------------------------------------------------------
SHL CAREER STATS
S25 LAP: GP: 50, G: 2, A: 3, P: 5, +/-: -4, H: 75
S26 LAP: GP: 50, G: 4, A: 5, P: 9, +/-: -13, H: 94
S27 LAP: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 9, P: 15, +/-: -2, H: 35
S28 LAP: GP: 50, G: 7, A: 10, P: 17, +/-: -2, H: 96
S29 LAP: GP: 50, G: 13, A: 21, P: 34, +/-: -15, H: 85
S30 LAP: GP: 50, G: 23, A: 22, P: 45, +/-: 4, H: 130
S31 LAP: GP: 50, G: 20, A: 18, P: 38, +/-: 5, H: 162
S32 LAP: GP: 50, G: 18, A: 28, P: 46, +/-: 27, H: 183
S33 LAP: GP: 50, G: 17, A: 22, P: 39, +/-: 20, H: 210
S34 LAP: GP: 50, G: 12, A: 25, P: 37, +/-: -2, H: 131
S35 LAP: GP: 50, G: 10, A: 22, P: 32, +/-: -3, H: 115
S36 LAP: GP: 50, G: 11, A: 20, P: 31, +/-: 10, H: 138
S37 LAP: GP: 36, G: 9, A: 17, P: 26, +/-: -1, H: 72
S37 WKP: GP: 14, G: 1, A: 0, P: 1, +/-: -4, H: 19
TOT : GP: 650, G: 153, A: 222, P: 375, +/-: 20, H: 1545
------------------------------------------------------------
SHL PLAYOFF STATS
S25 LAP: DNQ
S26 LAP: DNQ
S27 LAP: DNQ
S28 LAP: DNQ
S29 LAP: DNQ
S30 LAP: DNQ
S31 LAP: DNQ
S32 LAP: GP: 5, G: 1, A: 3, P: 4, +/-: -2, H: 15
S33 LAP: GP: 12, G: 2, A: 3, P: 5, +/-: 0, H: 38
S34 LAP: GP: 7, G: 1, A: 3, P: 4, +/-: 3, H: 23
S35 LAP: GP: 5, G: 1, A: 1, P: 2, +/-: -4, H: 4
S36 LAP: DNQ
S37 WKP: GP: 12, G: 0, A: 2, P: 2, +/-: -2, H: 35
TOT : GP: 41, G: 5, A: 12, P: 17, +/-: -5, H: 115
------------------------------------------------------------

TATU MÄKELÄ | D | RETIRED
NAME: Tatu Mäkelä
BIRTHPLACE: Tampere, Finland
HEIGHT: 5'11"
WEIGHT: 180 lbs
NUMBER: 65
------------------------------------------------------------
SHL CAREER STATS
S40 BUF: GP: 50, G: 5, A: 17, P: 22, +/-: -28, H: 14, SB: 86
S41 BUF: GP: 50, G: 10, A: 21, P: 31, +/-: -3, H: 9, SB: 78
S42 BUF: GP: 50, G: 9, A: 21, P: 30, +/-: 2, H: 13, SB: 65
S43 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 24, P: 30, +/-: 1, H: 8, SB: 51
S44 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 28, P: 34, +/-: -6, H: 10, SB: 63
S45 BUF: GP: 50, G: 4, A: 37, P: 41, +/-: 10, H: 130, SB: 71
S46 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 36, P: 42, +/-: 25, H: 139, SB: 73
S47 BUF: GP: 50, G: 5, A: 23, P: 28, +/-: -4, H: 137, SB: 76
S48 BUF: GP: 50, G: 7, A: 25, P: 32, +/-: 9, H: 151, SB: 70
S49 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 22, P: 28, +/-: 5, H: 159, SB: 66
S50 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 20, P: 26, +/-: 14, H: 152, SB: 72
S51 BUF: GP: 50, G: 3, A: 23, P: 26, +/-: 8, H: 143, SB: 50
S52 BUF: GP: 50, G: 9, A: 21, P: 30, +/-: -3, H: 141, SB: 71
S53 BUF: GP: 50, G: 5, A: 14, P: 19, +/-: 23, H: 50, SB: 98
TOT : GP: 700, G: 87, A: 332, P: 419, +/-: 53, H: 1256, SB: 990
------------------------------------------------------------
SHL PLAYOFF STATS
S40 BUF: DNQ
S41 BUF: GP: 7, G: 3, A: 2, P: 5, +/-: -3, H: 0, SB: 10
S42 BUF: GP: 5, G: 0, A: 1, P: 1, +/-: -9, H: 2, SB: 10
S43 BUF: GP: 9, G: 0, A: 5, P: 5, +/-: -1, H: 1, SB: 8
S44 BUF: DNQ
S45 BUF: DNQ
S46 BUF: GP: 17, G: 0, A: 12, P: 12, +/-: 11, H: 59, SB: 28
S47 BUF: GP: 13, G: 0, A: 5, P: 5, +/-: 2, H: 32, SB: 18
S48 BUF: GP: 22, G: 2, A: 10, P: 12, +/-: 2, H: 64, SB: 32
S49 BUF: GP: 5, G: 0, A: 5, P: 5, +/-: 5, H: 15, SB: 8
S50 BUF: GP: 6, G: 0, A: 5, P: 5, +/-: -2, H: 18, SB: 12
S51 BUF: GP: 8, G: 2, A: 5, P: 7, +/-: -3, H: 15, SB: 11
S52 BUF: GP: 15, G: 4, A: 5, P: 9, +/-: 4, H: 47, SB: 26
S53 BUF: GP: 4, G: 0, A: 0, P: 0, +/-: 0, H: 6, SB: 13
TOT : GP: 111, G: 11, A: 55, P: 66, +/-: 6, H: 159, SB: 176
------------------------------------------------------------

KOLJA KEKKONEN | D | RETIRED
NAME: Kolja Kekkonen
BIRTHPLACE: Lappeenranta, Finland
HEIGHT: 6'3"
WEIGHT: 225 lbs
NUMBER: 8
------------------------------------------------------------
SMJHL CAREER STATS
S53 DET: GP: 3, G: 0, A: 1, P: 1, +/-: -1, H: 2, SB: 0
S54 DET: GP: 50, G: 2, A: 8, P: 10, +/-: -6, H: 15, SB: 37
S55 DET: GP: 50, G: 4, A: 12, P: 16, +/-: -24, H: 32, SB: 24
S56 DET: GP: 50, G: 4, A: 17, P: 21, +/-: -20, H: 52, SB: 71
S57 ANA: GP: 66, G: 6, A: 20, P: 26, +/-: 14, H: 52, SB: 70
TOT : GP: 219, G: 16, A: 58, P: 74, +/-: -37, H: 153, SB: 202
SMJHL PLAYOFF STATS
S53 DET: DNP
S54 DET: GP: 7, G: 0, A: 0, P: 0, +/-: 0, H: 2, SB: 3
S55 DET: GP: 4, G: 0, A: 1, P: 1, +/-: -2, H: 3, SB: 0
S56 DET: GP: 5, G: 2, A: 2, P: 4, +/-: 0, H: 3, SB: 7
S57 ANA: GP: 21, G: 2, A: 13, P: 15, +/-: 5, H: 13, SB: 34
TOT : GP: 37, G: 4, A: 16, P: 20, +/-: 3, H: 22, SB: 44
------------------------------------------------------------

KEKW KEKKONEN | C | RETIRED
NAME: Karl-Erik-Karl2-Wojtek Kekkonen
BIRTHPLACE: Lohja, Finland
HEIGHT: 6'4"
WEIGHT: 220 lbs
NUMBER: 69
------------------------------------------------------------
SHL CAREER STATS
S61 BUF: GP: 66, G: 10, A: 28, P: 38, +/-: 21, H: 59, SH: 134
S62 BUF: GP: 66, G: 19, A: 36, P: 55, +/-: 9, H: 84, SH: 194
S63 BUF: GP: 66, G: 17, A: 14, P: 31, +/-: -13, H: 91, SH: 148
S64 BUF: GP: 66, G: 16, A: 51, P: 67, +/-: 36, H: 82, SH: 212
S65 BUF: GP: 66, G: 25, A: 41, P: 66, +/-: 33, H: 136, SH: 230
S66 BUF: GP: 66, G: 38, A: 43, P: 81, +/-: 18, H: 64, SH: 222
S67 BUF: GP: 66, G: 40, A: 45, P: 85, +/-: -6, H: 76, SH: 224
S68 BUF: GP: 66, G: 47, A: 46, P: 93, +/-: 45, H: 51, SH: 326
S69 BUF: GP: 66, G: 35, A: 31, P: 66, +/-: 22, H: 43, SH: 269
S70 BUF: GP: 66, G: 33, A: 48, P: 81, +/-: 18, H: 66, SH: 297
S71 BUF: GP: 66, G: 36, A: 41, P: 77, +/-: 37, H: 55, SH: 257
S72 BUF: GP: 66, G: 25, A: 35, P: 60, +/-: -1, H: 58, SH: 281
S73 BUF: GP: 66, G: 31, A: 41, P: 72, +/-: 23, H: 48, SH: 305
S74 BUF/WPG: GP: 66, G: 17, A: 47, P: 64, +/-: 33, H: 101, SH: 164
TOT : GP: 924, G: 389, A: 547, P: 936, +/-: 275, H: 1014, SH: 3263
SHL PLAYOFF STATS
S61 BUF: GP: 9, G: 2, A: 6, P: 8, +/-: 4, H: 11, SH: 24
S62 BUF: GP: 9, G: 3, A: 1, P: 4, +/-: 2, H: 5, SH: 25
S63 BUF: GP: 12, G: 1, A: 2, P: 3, +/-: -1, H: 32, SH: 33
S64 BUF: GP: 11, G: 2, A: 2, P: 4, +/-: -6, H: 12, SH: 41
S65 BUF: GP: 18, G: 4, A: 7, P: 11, +/-: 8, H: 34, SH: 62
S66 BUF: GP: 16, G: 11, A: 9, P: 20, +/-: 3, H: 13, SH: 49
S67 BUF: GP: 4, G: 2, A: 2, P: 4, +/-: -3, H: 3, SH: 20
S68 BUF: GP: 17, G: 6, A: 8, P: 14, +/-: -4, H: 11, SH: 75
S69 BUF: GP: 4, G: 1, A: 0, P: 1, +/-: -5, H: 2, SH: 13
S70 BUF: GP: 7, G: 1, A: 3, P: 4, +/-: -8, H: 2, SH: 25
S71 BUF: GP: 21, G: 12, A: 9, P: 21, +/-: 6, H: 24, SH: 97
S72 BUF: GP: 5, G: 0, A: 2, P: 2, +/-: -4, H: 7, SH: 25
S73 BUF: GP: 6, G: 3, A: 0, P: 3, +/-: -3, H: 11, SH: 33
S74 WPG: GP: 22, G: 3, A: 4, P: 7, +/-: -2, H: 15, SH: 37
TOT : GP: 161, G: 51, A: 55, P: 106, +/-: -11, H: 182, SH: 559
------------------------------------------------------------

KAL ÅKAR KEKKONEN | D | SEATTLE ARGONAUTS
NAME: Kal Åkar Kekkonen
BIRTHPLACE: The Wilderness, Gielinor
HEIGHT: 6'6"
WEIGHT: 240 lbs
NUMBER: 75
------------------------------------------------------------
SMJHL CAREER STATS
S74 DET: GP: 66, G: 6, A: 14, P: 20, +/-: 3, SH: 83, H: 76, SB: 29
S75 DET: GP: 66, G: 8, A: 22, P: 30, +/-: 31, SH: 129, H: 123, SB: 114
S76 DET: GP: 66, G: 17, A: 21, P: 38, +/-: -10, SH: 193, H: 74, SB: 130

SMJHL PLAYOFF STATS
S74 DET: GP: 17, G: 3, A: 7, P: 10, +/-: 8, SH: 18, H: 16, SB: 5
S75 DET: GP: 14, G: 5, A: 6, P: 11, +/-: 2, SH: 40, H: 26, SB: 27
S76 DET: GP: 4, G: 1, A: 2, P: 3, +/-: -2, SH: 8, H: 8, SB: 8
------------------------------------------------------------

Originally posted by WannabeFinn@May 11 2018, 08:00 PM
Buffalo and Toronto gonna be the primetime rivalry of the S40's SHL decade

bet on it

I apologize in advance.

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[pbhfx]
Bane - Defense - Nevada Battleborn - 345 TPE
-----------------------------------------------------
Birthplace: London, UK
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 225 lbs
Number: 3
-----------------------------------------------------
SMJHL Regular Season Statistics:
S55:
-----------------------------------------------------
Transactions and Awards:
Drafted 54th overall by the Nevada Battleborn in the S55 SMJHL Draft

[/pbhfx]

Player Page || Update Page

Originally posted by WannabeFinn@May 11 2018, 07:00 PM
Buffalo and Toronto gonna be the primetime rivalry of the S40's SHL decade

bet on it

We gonna fight forever

Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
  



Mikhail Lokitonov | RW | TOR/LAP/AUT | TPE: Retired Peak: 2018
Name: Mikhail Lokitonov
Age: 26
Height: 5'9"
Weight: 170
Number: 10
------------------------------------------------------------
Transactions
S38 Picked 15th overall by the Prince George Firebirds
S38 Signed $3.0m contract with PGF
S39 Picked 6th overall by the Toronto North Stars
S39 Signed 3-year $7m contract with TOR
S40 Traded to KEL (Only for Nour's sake)
S41 Signed 3-year $9m contract extension with TOR
S44 Signed 3-year $9m contract extension with TOR
------------------------------------------------------------
SMJHL Career Stats:
S38 PGF | 50 GP | 10 G | 16 A | 26 P | 7 PPP | 12.50 SHT% | +4
S39 PGF | 50 GP | 22 G | 35  A | 57 P | 14 PPP | 11.89 SHT% | +36
S40 KEL | 50 GP |  15 G | 21 A | 35 P | 11 PPP | 11.11 SHT% | +4
Total | 150 GP | 47 G | 72 A | 119 P | +44
------------------------------------------------------------
SMJHL Career Playoff Stats:
S38 PGF | 14 GP | 0 G | 1 A | 1 P | -2
S39 PGF | 12 GP | 2 G | 4 A | 6 P | -1
S40 KEL | 10 GP | 6 G |  7 A | 13 P | +2
Total | 36 GP | 8 G |  12 A | 20 P | -1
------------------------------------------------------------
SHL Regular Season Stats
S41 TOR | 50 GP |  12 G | 11 A | 23 P | 4 PPP | 13.04%  SHT% | -9
S42 TOR | 50 GP |  22 G | 21 A | 43 P | 11 PPP | 12.22%  SHT% | -1
S43 TOR | 50 GP |  12 G | 22 A | 34 P | 6 PPP | 5.83%  SHT% | 2
S44 TOR | 50 GP |  16 G | 23 A | 39 P | 6 PPP | 8.04%  SHT% | 10
S45 TOR | 50 GP |  20 G | 26 A | 46 P | 14 PPP | 9.48%  SHT% | -5
S46 TOR | 50 GP |  14 G | 30 A | 46 P | 14 PPP | 7.37%  SHT% | 0
S47 TOR | 50 GP |  21 G | 40 A | 61 P | 10 PPP | 10.14%  SHT% | 1
S48 TOR | 50 GP |  21 G | 33 A | 54 P | 10 PPP | 11.93%  SHT% | 19
Total | 400GP | 138 G | 206 A | 344 P | 1473 SHT | 9.37% SHT% | 17
--------------------------------------------------------------
SHL Playoff Stats
S44 TOR | 7 GP |  1 G | 3 A | 4 P | 0 PPP | 4.00%  SHT% | 1
S45 TOR | 5 GP |  0 G | 2 A | 2 P | 0 PPP | 0.00%  SHT% | 1
Total | 12 GP | 1 G | 5 A | 6 P | 31 SHT| 3.23% SHT% | 2
--------------------------------------------------------------
IIHF Career Stats:
S39 | 11 GP | 1 G | 0 A | 1 P | 25.00% | -2
S40 | 13 GP | 1 G | 0 A | 1 P | 25.00% | -1
S41 | 10 GP | 1 G | 5 A | 6 P | 4.35% | 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Career Achievements:
S38 Finished 2nd in S38 SMJHL Rookie Scoring (26P)
S38 Finished 1st (Tied) in S38 SMJHL Rookie Goal Scoring (10 G)
S38 FOUR STAR CUP CHAMP
S38 Esa Anrikkanen Award Winner (Rookie of The Year)
S38 Elias Armia Trophy Winner (The "Storm Likes Me Best" Award)
S39 Ron Bolt Trophy Winner (Best Sportsmanship)
S40 Four Star Cup
S42 Aiden Richan Trophy Winner (Breakout Star)
S43 100 Career Points
S43 IIHF Bronze Medal
S45 IIHF Bronze Medal
S46 200 Career Points
S47 100 Career Goals
S47 IIHF Bronze Medal


Axel Meszaros | D | STL/TOR | TPE: 901
Name: Axel Meszaros
Age: 21
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 198
Number: 2
------------------------------------------------------------
Transactions
Drafted 8th overall to the St. Louis Scarecrows
------------------------------------------------------------
SMJHL Career Stats:
------------------------------------------------------------
SMJHL Career Playoff Stats:
------------------------------------------------------------
SHL Regular Season Stats
------------------------------------------------------------
SHL Playoff Stats
------------------------------------------------------------
Career Achievements:


Robert Lokitonov | Head GM | Toronto North Stars
Name: Robert Lokitonov
Age: 48
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 200 lbs
------------------------------------------------------------
Season Record
ANC S40 9 W | 36 L | 5 OTL | 23 Points | Finished 8th | Missed Playoffs
ANC S41 23 W | 25 L | 2 OTL | 48 Points | Finished 7th| Missed Playoffs
ANC S42 23 W | 22 L | 5 OTL | 51 Points | Finished 4th | Lost in Semis to KEL
ANC S43 19 W | 29 L | 2 OTL | 40 Points | Finished 8th | Missed Playoffs
TOR S44 33 W | 15 L | 2 OTL | 68 Points | Finished 1st East (2nd Overall) | Eliminated 1st Round in 7
TOR S45 24 W | 22 L | 4 OTL | 52 Points | Finished 4th East (8th Overall) | Eliminated 1st Round in 4
TOR S46 29 W | 18 L | 3 OTL | 61 Points | Finished 3rd East (3rd Overall) | Eliminated 1st Round in 7
TOR S47 28 W | 20 L | 2 OTL | 58 Points | Finished 3rd East (6th Overall) | Eliminated 1st Round in 6
------------------------------------------------------------
Career Acomplishments
S39 Named Co-GM of PGF
S42 Named Head GM of PGF
S42 Team moved to Anchorage
S44 Named Toronto Co-GM