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EricNCSU · 02-19-2020, 04:27 PM

Yahoo Sports Desk

It's the penultimate day of SMJHL Season 52 and after a tightly contested season, a surprising numbers of final seeds are still up in the air. St. Louis still has two games remaining, with the rest of the league (except Newfoundland) only have one game remaining. While this gives St. Louis a bit of an advantage to "control their own destiny" there is still a chance they could finish anywhere between 3rd and 7th depending on those last few games. Let's dive into the possible scenarios and who that would mean St. Louis meets in the playoffs.

We'll start with the extreme examples on the top and bottom where St. Louis would need help from other teams.

St. Louis finishes 2-0 with regulation win over Carolina and Detroit loses in regulation to Anahiem:

This scenario would put St. Louis into the 3rd spot with 60 points and keep Detroit and Carolina at their current point totals of 59. This scenario involves St. Louis beating Kelowna and Carolina so that would lock Kelowna into the 7th spot and would match St Louis against Vancouver, regardless of the outcome of Vancouver's final game against Colorado. St. Louis finished the regular season against Vancouver with a 4-2 record and a +4 goal differential. This would be a favorable match up for St. Louis.

St. Louis finishes 0-2 and Vancouver beats Colorado:

This is the other extreme scenario that could drop St. Louis all the way down to 7th. Kelowna would move to 57 points, while Vancouver would move to 58 points. Two regulation losses would hold St. Louis at 56 points. This would pit St. Louis (7th) in a play-in series vs Halifax (10th), which in theory St. Louis could win handily (4-1 regular season, +6 goal diff), but staying out of the first round would be ideal.

Two overtime losses would put St. Louis into a tie with Vancouver at 58 points (STL wins tiebreak, 21 ROW vs 18). Kelowna stays in 7th, Vancouver 6th, St. Louis 5th.
If Detroit loses(regulation or OT), they will be in 4th and match up with St. Louis. Regular Season (2-2-1, +7 goal diff, favorable match up for St. Louis)
If Detroit wins, 3 way tie with Colorado, Detroit and Carolina all at 61 points. (ROW order, CAR - 26, Detroit - 23, Colorado - 21). Carolina #1, Detroit #2, Colorado #3, Anaheim falls to #4. St. Louis match up with Colorado (1-3-1 record, -7 goal diff, nightmare match up for St. Louis)

One loss in OT would put St Louis into a tie with Kelowna at 57 points. (STL wins tiebreak 21 ROW vs 20). This would also put St. Louis in 6th with a possible match up with Anaheim (Detroit loses) or Colorado (Detroit wins). St. Louis was 3-3-1 against Anaheim in the regular season with a -2 goal diff. This would be a tough series, likely to go 7.

If Carolina losses in OT:

If St Louis needs OT to beat Carolina, both teams would be tied at 60 and Carolina wins the tiebreak (26 ROW vs 21). So again, it would fall on the Detroit game to determine the final match-up.

If Detroit loses in OT: 3-way tie at 60 points. (ROW Order CAR -26, Detroit - 23, St. Louis - 21). In this case, Carolina would move to #3, Detroit #4 and St. Louis #5. As mentioned above, Detroit would be a tight series but favorable for St. Louis.
If Detroit loses in regulation: Carolina and St. Louis at 60 points would both leapfrog Detroit at 59. Carolina #3, St. Louis #4, Detroit #5. Again, St. Louis v Detroit match-up.

If St. Louis goes 1-1 in regulation:

With St. Louis at 58 points, it doesn't seem to matter who the loss is against. Carolina would be at 59 or 61 points, while Kelowna would be at 55 or 57. In this scenario it looks like St. Louis would stand pat at #5 where they are now. And face either Carolina or Detroit in the #4 slot depending on if Detroit wins (Carolina #4) or Detroit loses (Detroit #4).

If Carolina loses in OT: Doesn't affect the standings, Carolina would stay ahead at 60 points.

If Kelowna loses in OT: The bonus point for Kelowna would put them into a tie with St. Louis at 58 points, but as explored above St. Louis owns the tiebreak against Kelowna, standing unchanged.

Based on regular season performance, almost all of these match-ups favor St. Louis, with the exception of Colorado, but as all hockey fans know, anything can happen in a 7 game playoff series.

Disclaimer: I was about 90% done with this when I realize it doesn't look like ROW is actually the tiebreak, so all of my tiebreaking scenarios could be wrong and this could all be completely wrong. Too late to change it now.

tl;dr - With only 2 games left, St. Louis can still finish anywhere between 3 and 7 and face up to 6 different teams in the playoffs.

[~880 words + mental gymnastics]

reid · 02-19-2020, 05:29 PM

Quote:If Detroit loses(regulation or OT), they will be in 4th and match up with St. Louis. Regular Season (2-2-1, +7 goal diff, favorable match up for St. Louis)

Press x to doubt

Falcons

***hhh81*** · 02-19-2020, 08:12 PM

Bring on the Crows, boy!

*fishy* · 02-19-2020, 11:12 PM

02-19-2020, 08:12 PMhhh81 Wrote: Bring on the Crows, boy!

Playoffs... just in time for Colorado to regress to the mean!

***hhh81*** · 02-20-2020, 12:07 AM

02-19-2020, 11:12 PMjfisherr Wrote:
02-19-2020, 08:12 PMhhh81 Wrote: Bring on the Crows, boy!

Playoffs... just in time for Colorado to regress to the mean!

Been the best 5 on 5 team this season, but k.

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