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EricNCSU · 04-28-2020, 04:16 PM

An interesting thing happened this season. In a run of four games, we played Carolina three times. In those three games I registered 5 points (2G, 3A), while in the several games before and after, including the one non-Carolina game in the mix, I registered 0 points. It made it seem as though I had some sort of special mojo specifically against Carolina. From that point on, I started tracking my stats against each individual team to see if there was any rhyme or reason to which teams I was more successful against. At first, I started with goals/assists/points but later added defensive stats as well (hits, blocked shots).

I don’t have any access or knowledge about changes in tactics over the course of the season, and my linemates shuffled around several times, especially after the addition of Indigo Trevino, so this will just be a look at the raw numbers against each opponent. Obviously, there could be a lot of factors that cause these trends. It could also be completely random.

Offensive Numbers: (I collected plus/minus as a “defensive” stat but I include it with offense for context)

First let’s look at the teams I had the most offensive success against.
1.      Carolina – 3 goals, 3 assists, 6 points, +2
2.      Anchorage – 1 goal, 3 assists, 4 points, even
3.      Vancouver – 1 goal, 2 assists, 3 points, +5
4.      Kelowna – 3 assists, 3 points, +1
5.      Colorado – 1 goal, 1 assist, 2 points, +4
6.      Maine – 2 assists, 2 points, +2
7.      Anaheim – 2 assists, 2 points, even
8.      Newfoundland – 1 goal, 1 point, -1
9.      Detroit – 0 points, -4

Not surprisingly Carolina is the top of the list, since that match-up spawned this thought experiment in the first place, but then there is a run of Western Conference teams after that. My first logical assumption was that my success might be tied to the teams we played the most, but that’s clearly not the case with Detroit (8 games) and Newfoundland (7 games) at the bottom of the list. Let’s take a look at points per game and see how that rearranges the list.

1.      Anchorage – 1 point per game (4 points in 4 games)
2.      Vancouver – 0.75 points per game (3 points in 4 games)
3.      Carolina – 0.75 points per game (6 points in 8 games)
4.      Kelowna – 0.75 points per game (3 points in 4 games)
5.      Colorado – 0.50 points per game (2 points in 4 games)
6.      Anaheim – 0.50 points per game (2 points in 4 games)
7.      Maine – 0.285 points per game (2 points in 7 games)
8.      Newfoundland – 0.143 points per game (1 point in 7 games)
9.      Detroit – 0 points per game.

A little shuffling at the top, but not so much at the bottom. Interestingly, and perhaps not surprisingly, this list matches up very well with our winning records against each individual team. Anchorage (4-0-0), Vancouver (3-1-0), Carolina (5-2-1), Kelowna (2-2-0), Colorado (3-1-0), Anaheim (1-3-0), Maine (7-0-0), Newfoundland (1-5-1), Detroit (1-7-0). The one outlier there is Maine. Despite the team having a resounding success against Maine, I personally didn’t do that well. Looking at the match-ups there is nothing that jumps out at me as to why this might be, so just chalk it up to tactics/team chemistry etc. The Colorado/Anaheim numbers are a bit of an outlier as well. It looks like I should have had more success against Colorado and less against Anaheim. Probably some randomness in only a 4 game sample size.

Defensive Numbers:

Now let’s take a look at the teams I had the most defensive success against.

1.      Vancouver – 3 hits, 7 blocked shots, +5
2.      Maine – 2 hits, 8 blocked shots, +2
3.      Detroit – 2 hits, 10 blocked shots, -4
4.      Newfoundland – 1 hit, 9 blocked shots, -1
5.      Colorado – 2 hits, 5 blocked shots, +4
6.      Carolina – 4 hits, 4 blocked shots, +2
7.      Kelowna – 1 hit, 2 blocked shots, +1
8.      Anchorage – 1 hit, 2 blocked shots, even
9.      Anaheim – 2 blocked shots, even

The 10 blocked shots against Detroit is impressive, but the -4 rating drops it down the list a little bit compared to Vancouver and Maine. Now we have some interesting juxtapositions between the offensive scoring and defensive scoring. Vancouver is at the top of both lists, so clearly the team I had the most success against in both directions. Maine shows up high on the defensive list, so despite very little offense against a team we were undefeated against, I performed well in a defensive role against them. I also had very good defensive performances against Detroit, but unfortunately not enough to change the overall team performance against them. Anchorage, Carolina and Kelowna all flip sides, from good offensive performances to poor defensive performances. Colorado is right in the middle of both lists. Anaheim is a team I didn’t do very well against on either side.

Overall Performance Rankings (based on average offense and defense ratings)

1.      Vancouver – 1.5 rating
2.      Anchorage – 4.5 rating
3.      Carolina – 4.5 rating
4.      Maine – 4.5 rating
5.      Colorado – 5 rating
6.      Kelowna – 5.5 rating
7.      Newfoundland – 6 rating
8.      Detroit – 6 rating
9.      Anaheim – 7.5 rating

Single game highlights:

Game 11 vs Carolina – 3 points (1G, 2A): The game that started the 5 points in 3 games run.
Games 2, 22, 27, and 38 – 2 points: Four other multi-point games in the season. Either 1G, 1A or 2A. No multi-goal games this season.
Game 16 and 37 - +3 rating: My highest positive rating this season.
Game 31 vs Detroit – 7 blocked shots: The majority of my blocks against Detroit all season in one game.
Game 22 vs Colorado – 2 hits: My only multi-hit game of the season.
Games 2, 11, 27 – First Star: Against Anchorage, Carolina and Kelowna
Games 22 and 46 – Second Star: Against Colorado and Vancouver
Games 38 and 39 – Third Star: Against Anchorage and Vancouver

So there we have it, an interesting look at the S53 season per individual opponents.

Code:
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Nhamlet · 04-28-2020, 04:44 PM

I hope that record against Newfoundland continues.

**_Blitz_** · 04-28-2020, 08:15 PM

Cool article, Eric. Let's rock these Playoffs!

***honkerrs*** · 04-28-2020, 10:07 PM

Hopefully the graders take into account how much of a pain in the ass it is to get this data in this sim . Nice work and summary

EricNCSU · 04-29-2020, 07:42 AM

04-28-2020, 10:07 PMhonkerrs Wrote: Hopefully the graders take into account how much of a pain in the ass it is to get this data in this sim . Nice work and summary

I kept a spreadsheet and would mark it down from the videos of the live stream.

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