08-25-2020, 10:38 AM(This post was last modified: 08-29-2020, 10:34 AM by juke.)
Ready for grading, split between @Dextaria, @SDCore and myself
(I copied this intro from the SHL version, feel free not to include it in grading)
SMJHL playoffs are here, which means it’s once again time to run the numbers and report the percent chance that each team has of winning any given game, and subsequently their series. Just like my media series about this last playoffs, the graphs and series chance for each matchup will be updated after every sim or two, and some context and stats will be added for individual games, as well as the series as a whole. This year, @"Dexteria" and @”SDcore” will be joining me in covering some of the specific matchups for round 1, which initially looks like it will be an exciting competitive round. Playoffs are a bit different in the J this time around, as all 12 teams make the playoffs with an initial 8 team round 1 and the top 4 teams on byes (are they technically play-ins or officially round 1?), which means we have some familiar teams as well as some new ones making appearances this season. As always, before just going straight into the numbers, I’d like to clarify some of the background and theory behind how this breakdown works.The methodology behind the numbers and calculations are the same as last year, so feel free to skip straight to the breakdowns if you’re familiar with how they’re calculated, or just don’t care.
Numbers only: The most important thing for me to clarify, is that these aren’t my ‘predictions’ of who’s going to win each series. It’s just reporting the probabilities of team wins, based on that team’s scoring trends. There’s no context behind the probabilities, it’s literally just statistics. Other members of the SJHN have/will put out their own spins of the specific breakdown of each matchup, and those pieces are where you’ll find more context and predictions about each series.
Tactics: This is the biggest flaw in all these numbers. They’re just using season averages, where a lot of teams likely found the best tactics for their team in a broad, general sense, and went with them to try and win as many games as possible. However, come playoffs with 4-7 games against the same opponent, teams will be trying to counter the other, or maybe have new line combinations or tactic settings to give them an advantage. This can’t really be reported in my numbers (other than head to head factor which I talk about in a second), so certain teams are going to match up better or worse then the numbers suggest, based on how well they can adjust their strategies.
Estimated score: This is the entire foundation of all the probabilities in this series. For each matchup, each team is given an estimated number of goals they’ll score in any given game, which is then used for all the rest of the math in these posts. This number is a function of each team’s scoring trends, both goals for and against, during the 50 game season, relative to league average. The number generated won’t be a real score, it’ll be something impossible to actually score, like 3.41 as a random example. But we use that value to calculate the probability of each team scoring a real number of goals, ranging from 0 to 8 in a single game.
Game chances: Using this estimated score and the probabilities that each team scores a certain amount of goals, we can estimate the percent chance that each team will win any given game.
Series chances: Once we have the percent chance that each team will win in either location, we can extrapolate to calculate the probability of each team winning at least 4 out of the 7 games for the series win.
No momentum: I know that momentum is a thing in FHM, but these numbers won't take that into account directly. However, I’ve changed how the expected goals are calculated this season, and the matchup values will be weighted more heavily towards the team’s head-to-head record on the season then I weighted them last playoffs. This means that if a team wins 2 games in a row in the series, although the actual momentum modifier from FHM won’t be considered, that team’s odds will still increase more significantly, because they’ll also have performed better in the head-to-head modifier on my end.
Home vs. Away: Also a new change from last playoffs, I decided to scrap the home vs. away distinction in the code. Although some teams really did perform much differently based on location, I decided 25 games for each was too small of a sample size, and things like a few bad games, or playing backup goalies more in one location could really skew the numbers, and as a result, the entire probabilities. Team scoring stats are based on their 50 game season stats, as well as updated for playoff stats as each game is played.
Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.
Matchup breakdown: This is the first of the graphs that will be updated after each game. It compares the two teams in each matchup, and how well each of them are performing relative to each other in a few key stats. Before game 1, the matchup breakdown graphs will just be using season stats, but after game 1, it will be representative of the current playoff matchup. The numbers plotted are per game, and the exact value for each team is also on the graph.
Series tracker: This final graph represents each team’s series chances after each game. Before game 1, it will be a very boring graph with just two points, but after each game it will track how the series chances change with each team’s win or loss.
Ok lets get on to the probabilities.
NBB vs. KEL
Pre Series
Our first featured matchup has new expansion team NBB in their first playoff experience in the league, facing an incredibly tough opponent in KEL. The Knights were S53 runner ups and last season’s conference finalists, and finished this season top 5 in goals scored and against, a top 3 team corsi. They actually had the 4th best record in the league - though just shy of ANC for the division so they didn’t earn the first round bye. On the contrary, NBB finished with the least amount of points in the league - as well as last in goals scored/against - a situation not entirely surprising for a new expansion team, but still a situation that has the numbers dictating them as heavy underdogs. KEL took the series sweep over NBB in the regular season, 4 games to none, however 3 of those 4 wins all went to OT, and 2 of them ended in a shootout, meaning that NBB has shown they can hang with the Knights. Regardless of the close games in the regular season, the number crunching says KEL has a massive chance of moving on to round 2, an 81.3% chance of winning any game (4.59 to 1.98 expected score), leading to a 97.3% chance of a series win. I suspect the odds are likely a bit lower due to 3 out of 4 head-to-head games going to OT or SO, but either way KEL are the very heavy favorites in this one.
General Series Stats
Game 1
2 - 3
Game 1 was a bit of a shocker, if we are being honest with each other. Kelowna exploded with 53 shots, which put a lot of pressure on the Nevada goalie, who seemed to handle it quite well, only surrendering 3 goals. Both teams were pretty clean, with only 2 penalty minutes recorded the entire game, those being taken by Nevada. Nevada was their typical defensive minded selves, which if they are going to pull an upset in this series, is where they are going to need to do it. They allow a lot of shots, but their shot blockers and ability to steal the puck will be their best chance.
Game 2
0 - 3
After scoring 2 early goals, the Knights shut it down and denied all chances that the Battleborn had in getting back into this series. In addition to the shutout, Kelowna had 13 more shots on net and higher corsi, PDO, and hits. For the Battleborn, they had twice as many blocked shots at 20, and they took the puckaway 7 times compared to the Knights’ 4. Kelowna eventually scored one late in the third to win the game 3-0. This increased their chances of winning to 99%, the highest of any series. The Battleborn on the other hand need to regroup and try to figure something out both offensively and defensively if they want to take a game.
Game 3
3 - 5
After a disappointing game 2 the Battleborn looked to get back into it for game three, but alas it was not to be. The Knights led in goals, shots, higher corsi, PPG, and managed to bring it close to even for takeaways, which is a battle they've lost all series. They had about an even PDO, which might mark the end of things for Nevada. The Battleborn are out hitting the Knights, but it does not appear to matter as the Knights appear to be the superior team in this contest. Interestingly enough though, even though the Battleborn hit more, they are a really disciplined team, so they really are not being hurt by penalties.
Game 4
2 - 6
Although the Battleborn may not have won a game, it is great to see the team’s first playoffs series. Nevada even had the lead this game in the beginning but the Knights were just too much for them. Kelowna dominated in shots and corsi even when their goaltending only put up a 0.890% save percentage. However, the Battleborn did do well physically landing 29 hits. With this loss, the Kelowna Knights win the series in a 4 game sweep against the Nevada Battleborn to move on to the next round where they face the Colorado Raptors. The Battleborn on the other hand have come to the end of their first season in the SMJHL.
DET vs. MET
Pre Series
This is the first time we’ve seen MET in the playoffs in the FHM era, and it’s likely the best team they’ve had in that time, as well as my entire time on the site. They have one of the most potent offenses in the league, however they’re putting up somewhat average defensive numbers. On the other hand, this DET team is far off from the one that had a dominant 4 start cup run in S53, as they finished with the 2nd least amount of points in the league. Despite that, DET seems to have figured out a way to match MET, as both teams split the series 2-2 and 14 goals a piece in the regular season. This head-to-head record keeps the numbers from being too high in MET’s favor, but the Timber still do have a 63% chance of winning any game, with expected goals of 3.74 to 2.78. This leads to a 76.6% chance of a MET series win, however I imagine DET feels a little more confident than 25% odds due to the series split. The biggest difference maker in this series could come down to special teams play - MET has almost double the amount of PPG per game as DET during the regular season.
General Series Stats
Game 1
1 - 2
Maine and Detroit square off in a battle of the Eastern conference. These two teams are familiar with each other, but Maine comes in as the slight favorite. This games was a really close match up, as both teams recorded 33 shots on goal, relatively the same amount of hits, shots blocked, and game ratings. If anything the PDO suggests that Detroit was a bit unlucky, recording a sub 100 PDO, so look for them to improve as this series goes on. This game was ended in overtime and we should expect this to continue to be a close series. If Detroit is going to come back and take the series, they need to capitalize on their takeaways, as they were able to win the turnover battle in game 1.
Game 2
3 - 6
Following a relatively low scoring game 1, Detroit and Maine’s offense exploded with 3 and 6 goals respectively. It was the Timber that came out the gates hot with 4 goals before the Falcons were able to respond with 1 early in the second. This is a bit unfortunate for Detroit as they outshot Maine and had the higher corsi and takeaways. However, their PDO was down at 87.88 while the Timber’s were at 112.12. Similarly, they had a poor save percentage at 0.790% while Maine had a respectable 0.910%. With this, the Maine Timber have a 94% chance of winning, but I feel that the Falcons still have the potential to turn the tides.
Game 3
1 - 3
This is quite an even series on paper, too bad it doesn't appear to be too even on the scoreboard. Despite Detroit having a better corsi, less penalty minutes, and more takeaways they are still losing in the scoring department. It's interesting to note, that Detroit has a lower PDO, dipping under 100, while Maine appears to be getting a bit of the puck luck, also out shooting the Falcons. Maine has been eating up the shots in the series as they lead again in shot blocks. Interesting looking at the series numbers, Detroit is outshooting the Timber, getting more relative takeaways, but they just cannot capitalize on their chances. Credit this to a solid Maine defense and some timely goalkeeping.
Game 4
3 - 4
In this close 3-4 loss for the Detroit Falcons, their playoffs have come to an end. It was Alex Marshall half way in the third period that broke the tie and scored the game winning goal. A heartbreaking loss for the Falcons as they were right there with them in all of the stats. Just one less penalty or a better performance from their defense and goaltender could’ve helped them squeak out a win. However, now it seems like it’s the end of their runs with this core as they head off to the offseason. The Maine Timber are heading off to the next round where they look set to play the Anchorage Armada.
QCC vs. ANA
Pre Series
QCC is our second expansion team facing their first playoff test, and it’s against an ANA team that is constantly seeming to find a way to play well in the playoffs, including last season’s runner ups and S52 cup champs. The two teams actually have similar offensive numbers - QCC finished just behind the outlaws in goals scored and corsi for, but ANA has a pretty large advantage defensively, both in goals allowed and shot attempts against. You can expect QCC to play more physical than ANA, as they had higher hit, SB, and takeaway numbers in the regular season, but part of that could be due to not having the puck more. The Outlaws went 3-1 against the Citadelles in the regular season, with the one loss being in the shootout, and held QCC to just 1 goal in each 3 victories. It won’t be a surprise to anyone that the new expansion team are considered significant underdogs in this one, but I guess a silver lining is that they have better odds than their other fellow expansion team? Either way this series is ANA’s to lose, and they start out with 77% odds to win any game (3.92 to 2.08 expected goals), leading to a 94.6% chance of a series win.
General Series Stats
Game 1
1 - 3
Quebec City comes into their first ever playoffs an underdog against a Anaheim team that ended the season with a bit of a sell off. However, they still appear to be the favorites in this opening round match up. Anaheim was really able to drive the play and dominate the scoring game. Quebec City played a physical game, trying to dominate tempo and put Anaheim on their heels, but Anaheim was able to maintain momentum. Anaheim is going to need to continue to get good games from their neutral zone and defense if they are going continue turning over the puck and get out hit the way they did in game 1.
Game 2
6 - 3
Another high scoring game 2 as the Citadelles proved that they can compete in spite of this being their first season in the SMJHL. Quebec City had a 0.920% save percentage and 20 hits. Anaheim on the other hand dominated in most other statistics with 39 shots on goal and a better corsi for. However, it seems that their defense and goaltending were the issue this game as they had a poor save percentage at 0.820%. This is a big moment for the Citadelles as it is their first playoff win in franchise history which increased their chances to 12.6%. The Outlaws on the other hand dropped to 87,4% and certainly are looking to bounce back defensively next game.
Game 3
5 - 2
This has been a very interesting series, as early on you saw Anaheim with the advantage, but Quebec City has been on it since game 1, taking almost complete control from the Outlaws. The Citadelles are doing it without leading really any metric or stat. In this game, the Outlaws, outshot, had a higher corsi, lead in takeaways, tied for hits and shot blocks, but had a terrible 90 PDO. Looking at the series as a whole, you can see that this has been the trend, whereas the Citadelles have been the more physical team, which appears to be the weakness. Leaving this game, the Outlaws are still favored to win, but this time only by a 54% margin.
Game 4
4 - 3
When I was given this graph, right beside it there was the words “give Smith the Conn Smythe,” and with his performance this series, he very much deserves the recognition. The average shots on goal for the entire series shows that the Outlaws are landing 10 more shots on net on average. However, Smith is up to the task, allowing the Citadelles to win games when they’ve been outshot. This game was no different as Smith put up a 0.940% save percentage while the team had 45 shots on goal. Anaheim did really well themselves with 54 shots on goal and a 94 corsi for. It really was Smith that stole the game as the Citadelles jumped to an 85.3% chance of winning. Anaheim need to figure out how to solve Smith as their backs are against the wall.
Game 5
1 - 2
Game 5 of this series, which has been by far the most interesting series in round one. Ya know, cause it's the only non-sweep. Anaheim looked to capitalize on more of it's chances, but it appears the best way to win right now is to be outshot. This trend continues in the series here, with Anaheim losing the shot battle by 1. Anaheim again took more penalties, but this time it didn't appear to hurt them, as Quebec City was not able to capitalize on any of the chances. It's still fascinating to me how many turnovers there are in the series, especially in this game as both teams recorded 10+, 11 for Anaheim, and 13 for Quebec City. This series is going to come down to whoever decides to play the hardest. Quebec City Citadelles are now favorites with a 68% chance to take the series.
Game 6
4 - 2
After losing in game 5, the Citadelles eventually take it in 6 over the Anaheim Outlaws. What a great performance by this expansion team as they came flying out the gates with an early goal. With 2 goals in the second period, this Quebec City team has already won their first playoff series in their first season. This game was a lot closer than it would seem as the last goal was an empty net goal. The shots were on par 27 to 28, hits 19 to 17, and corsi was neck-in-neck. Where Anaheim faltered a bit was certainly their goaltending as well as their astounding 16 giveaways after winning more faceoffs. However, this isn’t to take away from the incredible teamplay by the Citadelles in addition to their hot goaltending. With this, the Quebec City Citadelles move on to the second round where they will be facing the tough Newfoundland Berserkers.
STL vs. VAN
Pre Series
VAN has a lot of similarities to MET, in that this is the best FHM lineup we’ve seen this team have in the short time we’ve switched over, as well as the first time we’ve seen their team in the FHM playoffs. The Whalers actually had a rough start to the season - at the halfway mark they were bottom 3 and at one point just below QCC. But they had a great second half surge, propelling them above the bottom 4 to secure home ice in this round (which again location doesn’t actually affect the probabilities calculations anymore). Both teams are allergic to scoring, as they finished 2nd and 3rd to last in goals scored this season, although STL was better at generating shots during the regular season, and both have the same level of shot suppression. The difference maker for this one may come down to VAN’s team save percentage of 92% vs. STL’s 89%. VAN took the season series at 3 games to 1, and in another parallel to the MET team, they actually have the same percent chance of winning any game and thus the series as the Timber do - 63% and 76.6% respectively.
General Series Stats
Game 1
3 - 5
Talk about a game that went perfectly how it was "supposed" to go. Both teams ended this game with a 100 PDO, which means both teams played to the best and worst of their luck. Vancouver really needs to be careful about the amount of penalties they take per game. It will be hard for them to continue to lead the series if they are on the penalty kill as much as they were in game 1. The possession numbers were relatively even, but where Vancouver thrived was in the offensive zone. Saint Louis is going to need to play better on the power-play, which is an odd thing to say since they were able to get 1 goal, but a 1 for 5 is not going to be good enough if Vancouver is going to allow them a lot of chances. Vancouver is going to have to be more responsible if they want to continue to win this series.
Game 2
2 - 4
Game 2 for the Whalers ended just as well as game 1 did. They won the game 4-2 and clearly seemed to control the pace of the game. This Vancouver team beat St. Louis in every statistic, all doing this with only a 0.900% save percentage. St. Louis on the other hand spent more time in their defensive zone with 15 shots blocked compared to Vancouver’s 11. For Vancouver, the offense is clicking and winning games even when the goaltending isn’t entirely there. St. Louis on the other hand might want to rethink tactics as it seems to be a one sided matchup. After game 2, the Vancouver Whalers increase their chances of winning to 94% as the Scarecrows fall to 6%.
Game 3
3 - 4
If the Anaheim and Quebec City series is telling us anything, it's that too expect the unexpected. The Scarecrows are able to out shoot, get more hits and shot blocks, end up with a better corsi rating, but are not able to get a win, losing their third game in a row. Again the PDO being in the favor of Van, who is a 106.52 in that department. They also still take a lot of penalties, but even when the Scarecrows capitalize on them, they are unable to take any momentum away from the Whalers. It appears that whatever the Whalers are doing is working, whether they are outshot or not, they seem to want to win. Leaving the series, Van now has a 98.1% chance of taking it.
Game 4
3 - 4
After Redacted seemed to have helped Vancouver steal game 3, he comes to game 4 and does it again by posting a shutout. An early goal by Kauppinen put the Whalers in the lead and they didn’t look back from there. I would say it was a really good defensive game for both teams but for Vancouver in particular as they had 18 shots blocked. This is not to say St. Louis did poorly as they also put up a 0.960% save percentage alongside 17 hits and 10 shots blocked. It’s just that Redacted, along with Vancouver’s defensive plays, stole the game to send the Scarecrows home in a 4 game sweep. In the next round, the Vancouver Whalers will face the likes of either Newfoundland or Carolina.
08-25-2020, 10:38 AMjuke Wrote: Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.
Can I see these for the QCC-ANA matchup? I actually love looking at stats like this.
08-25-2020, 10:38 AMjuke Wrote: Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.
Can I see these for the QCC-ANA matchup? I actually love looking at stats like this.
I made you a little powerpoint It has a few explanations of the 3 graphs I use cause I don't think they're super intuitive alone
updated through game 2 - as a note (mostly to QBB), after game 3 I start to take into the round head-to-head stats much more heavily, which means wins by underdog teams will start to change the series' probabilities much more than wins by favorites will.
Preface: I am not bitter or salty in the slightest, so I hope what follows won't come off that way. I'm not nearly smart enough to come up with the numbers y'all do but I think it's pretty cool you take the time to do it.
Actual post: If we only had a four-percent chance against Anaheim, what kind of odds will we have against Newfoundland? Can you have a negative percentage?
08-29-2020, 10:18 AMztevans Wrote: Preface: I am not bitter or salty in the slightest, so I hope what follows won't come off that way. I'm not nearly smart enough to come up with the numbers y'all do but I think it's pretty cool you take the time to do it.
Actual post: If we only had a four-percent chance against Anaheim, what kind of odds will we have against Newfoundland? Can you have a negative percentage?
lol no worries, it does always make me look like bad when one of these really 'high probability' teams loses. Your percent chance against NL will likely be even less than 4, but I think I'll input round 1 scoring into the script for the 4 winners, in an attempt to try and account for how the team is playing at this very moment. So that will probably stop you guys from going too low. The S53 DET team was having 99% series odds against teams in the start of most of their series, and STL still took them to 7, so really anything can happen. It all depends on the stuff that I talk about in the intro like matchups/tactics/momentum etc. This is more meant to be a rough estimate based on if regular season scoring trends held true. FWIW, this QCC win is the biggest upset in terms of the % chances that I've seen in the 3 seasons of doing this.
Anyways final update is in, thanks to Dex and SD for helping me write!