Those Detroit Falcons or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Rebuild

In Season 57 the SMJHL was expanded from a 50-game season to a 66-game season, and with that change almost all parity that had held for the first 56 years was thrown completely out the window. Some wrinkles in balance here and there, such as the change of sim engine to FHM from STHS in Season 53 leading to the first season of 0.800 play, as well as the expansion from 10 teams to 12 teams following soon after in Season 55, would very quickly combine to create the perfect storm for record winning seasons, as well as record losing seasons. From the first 42 seasons of recorded data there were just 6 teams to surpass a 0.700 point percentage. Following the change in engine in S53, 6 teams would surpass 0.700 in just the first THREE seasons, and 6 teams would surpass 0.800 in the twelve years leading up to today's subject, the coveted 0.900 season, of which no team has even sniffed since, and what follows that.

It's probably a good indicator of success when your whole team dots the all-time and single season records for the league as those S65 Detroit Falcons do. This team, spearheaded by Ivan Lacksamus, your single season record holder in points and sitting second in single season goals, would completely destroy the league on their way to taking the #1 attack and defense to the team's 7th cup. There's really only one word that can describe this team: Stacked. Both of the team's goalies in rotation ended the season over 420 TPE, and ten of the skaters would finish at 400+ TPE. The team would start with 17 straight wins, before taking a shootout loss to second place finishers QCC. They would put together a 16-game win streak for December into January, before striding into the playoffs on 11-1-0 in their last 12, completing their 59-5-2 season. Perhaps the most impressive part of their season is their dominance away from home, a 31-1-1 record while away, with their only losses being the aforementioned shootout loss early in the season to QCC, and their final loss of the season to third place Newfoundland. A team like this you would expect to win the Cup, and it certainly appeared that they would storm their way through the playoffs to an easy Four Star Cup, then they hit a brick wall. Newfoundland shocked the league after going up 3-1 in the finals, although it would seem a little suspicious, and accusations of luck were thrown around with two of the wins coming in OT. And perhaps those accusations were right, as the Falcons would promptly put any accusations of choking away with 6-1, 2-1, and a finals-winning 6-2 performance, with an Eddie Creller third period hat trick putting the game entirely out of reach. What a way to send off FHM 6.

Sconnie would go out on top leaving the GM role following this season, moving on and passing the torch to Vaxlare. Vaxlare would have to deal with quite a few roster losses, 13 in fact, in a generational team turnover that would drop them from 12 players over 400 TPE, to just 4 players over 300. The rebuild would begin with the switch to FHM 8, where following their first rebuild year of 25-35-6, Vaxlare put together some tactical changes. Bnana NWaffles would reach the cap in S67, while leading the league in points with 96. The defensive pairing of a capped Florsch and a sim favored Cob Corning would allow the trio to combine for a +/- at the lowest of +35, and the massive 150 TPE improvement of Bohdan Jarovsky as their new best wing. You could wonder what this team would have been if they hadn't lost C Jobin to inactivity, perhaps real finals contenders instead of a one-and-done. The Falcons would finish S67 with a solid 38-25-3 record, with some overperformance on the defensive side of things even outside of the two mentioned, considering they played a single 250 TPE goalie for majority of the season. They would be knocked out in the second round of the playoffs to Nevada, setting them up for a real chance at the S68 title if they could put it all together.

And that they did. What did Vaxlare know about the engine that allowed this to happen? The team would improve from 5 300+ TPE players to 10, with 5 of the 10 hitting the cap at 425. Bnana NWaffles would nearly repeat as points leader, finishing just 3 behind Nevada's Alexi Piastri, with a total of 100. Vaxlare and Co. had solved FHM 8 way too early, with the Falcons putting up an untouched until S80 QCC +182 team plus/minus, while their goals against has still not been beaten, as they allowed just 144 across the 66 games on their way to a 54-11-1 record. They wouldn't put together a win streak quite as long this time around, but would reach the double digits once, with a 14-game win streak from mid-November to mid-December. Now let's take a look into the individual stats that allowed for this season, because it gets pretty crazy pretty quickly. Of course, the team would take all top 10 spots for +/-, probably supported by their record setting defense, as well as their shoot on sight tactics, as they took the top 3 spots in shot%, with the only three marks over 24% across the league. Having three of the top four scorers is probably pretty conducive to winning, as they had three forwards put up 40+ goals. The defense also carried a lot of assists, with Florsch, Topalo, and Corning taking 3/4 top spots on the leaderboard. The 335 TPE Newman in goal would have a lot to say for those who questioned his TPE, as he put up a 2.19 GAA, with a 0.910 SV% in his 58 games. Detroit would start their second title run in four years with a strong performance against Yukon, putting up a +13 differential in their sweep of the Malamutes. The team would carry the momentum into the semifinals, going up 3-1 in the series, before a game 7 was forced by the Kraken after Carolina put them away a combined 10-1 in games 5 and 6. Game 7 would be a high scoring affair, with a final of 9-6 for Detroit. They would face their own conference runner-up in Maine. Maine were surely no slouches, after they were engraved into the Four Star Cup just the season prior. An even series after 4 would be advantage Falcons after their 6-1 beatdown of Maine in front of the Detroit crowd. The return to Maine would mean game 7 after Detroit went down 2-0 after the first, evened it into the second, and would lose the game 4-3 after they drew even one again in the third, before giving up the 4th goal with 15 minutes to go. Game 7 would almost certainly be put away after Herrington, who received 4 penalty minutes across the game, would score for his second point and put the game at 4-1 with 15 minutes to go.

I'm convinced the Falcons have some sort of automated rebuild machine they just run whenever they feel like it. I've already told you the story of Sconnie and Vaxlare, but what about the LITERAL NEXT GM ALSO WINNING A CUP. It's the story of Detroit and it always has been. S34 - Cup Win, S35 - Missed Playoffs, S36 - R2 Loss, S37 - Cup Win. S62 - Missed Playoffs, S63 - R2 Loss, S64 - R3 Loss, S65 - Cup Win (Record Points), S66 - Missed Playoffs, S67 - R2 Loss, S68 - Cup Win (Record GA). S72 - Missed Playoffs, S73 - R2 Loss, S74 - Cup Win. Their ability to immediately launch themselves up the standings after just a few seasons of rebuilds should be studied. In fact, I'm convinced they hold some tactical secrets that no other team knows, that they just pass down to each GM.

I would keep an eye out on the current Detroit tanking we are seeing, because they will be back, and it will not be pretty for everyone else. They have a few people sitting inactive, but a bunch of players sitting within reach of max TPE, and an active, soon to be maxed out goalie they could hang on to for maybe another 2 seasons. This team may not be showing it now, but I would stay suspicious of what's going on behind the scenes, because it only takes one good draft...

Let's take a closer look at what to expect from these Falcons in the near future under No Goal and OVOXO. Detroit have had a mixed bag of picks following their S74 cup win. Here is what their picks have become since then:

S75 SMJHL Entry Draft:

Detroit:
#15(STL): Anastasia Soderstrom - G - Reached Peak TPE
#29(STL): Brayden Point - C - Reached Peak TPE

Traded Picks:
#14(CAR): Max Belcher - LD/RD - Reached Peak TPE
#26(CAR) Jamie Fraser - RD/C/LW - Reached Peak TPE
#40(CAR) Lukas Fischer - RW/LW/C - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (267)

So, it appears their trades were perfectly solid here, and they really didn't lose much. Keeping in mind that they most likely traded these picks well ahead of time for pieces that allowed them to make their title pushes in previous seasons, although I'm too lazy to go and check exactly what was exchanged. Overall grade: C+

S76 SMJHL Entry Draft:

Detroit:
#8(REG): Simon Science - RW/LW - Reached Peak TPE
#12: Smitty Werbenjaegermanjensen - LD/RD - Reached Peak TPE
#22(QCC): Chairy Styles - LW/RW - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (256)
#27(CAR): Theo Kane - LW/RW - Reached Peak TPE
#35(SDT): Roquefort Cotswold - RD/LD - Reached Peak TPE
#39(STL): Max Kielinen - LW/RW - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (350) (Traded to TBW S79)
#49: Rock Solid - C/RD/RW - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (319)

Traded Picks:
#33(REG): Crazy Tomato II - RD - Reached Peak TPE (Traded to TBW S78)

Another solid draft really nothing to complain about, although the signs are showing for the incoming collapse. This team would finish 29-34-3, primarily under their lack of any high-profile wingers, and as you can see here, they attempt to draft as many as possible in an attempt to catch their mediocre attack up to their very good defense. Let's see how that goes for them... Overall Grade: B.

S77 SMJHL Entry Draft:

Detroit:
#5: Elliot Alderson - RD/LD - Reached Peak TPE
#22: Jeffrey Bjelland - C - Reached Peak TPE
#38: Mark Andrew Flower - G - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (297)
#54: Bas O'Bigbers Jr. - RW/LW/C - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (350)

Traded Picks:
NONE

This is a tough one to look at. A miss on a goalie pick with your senior peak goalie being phased out is never a good sign. The cracks are soon to show, but not quite yet. This season marks the last of Aephino's at the helm, with the team putting up a strong 38-23-5 season, although it would result in just a first-round exit. This certainly isn't a bad draft, but it seems to be just enough to keep them afloat for a few more seasons before they go under. Overall Grade: C.

S78 SMJHL Entry Draft:

Detroit:
#45: Jimbob Ghostkeeper - C - Reached Peak TPE (For NL) (Traded to NL S80)

Traded Picks:
#7(CAR): Kenneth Lind - LD - Reached Peak TPE
#29(NVB): Gregory Eriksson - G - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (216)

This just isn't enough at all. One pick. One single pick. Reached 338 TPE for Detroit in S80, then reached 425 for Newfoundland S81. Let's see what Detroit will get in return: 2nd, 3rd, Waiver. Alright that's not too bad. Let's check in on the team's results. 37-26-3. What? This isn't Falcons management at all! Did No Goal not get the memo? Doesn't he understand that this isn't how Detroit is supposed to work? A slightly above average season, okay that's fine, but the team is on the decline. The Detroit way is to fall off completely and THEN pick it up! We are headed in the complete wrong direction! Wait, you said this team reached the semifinals! What a fluke! A maximum TPE goalie, an average backup, and star-studded first line and then just a few average lines. Okay, maybe it wasn't a fluke result... Perhaps they underperformed in the regular season? But how are they going to improve now? Their stacked drafts of previous years are starting to move out, and their other drafts are full of players that won't make it all the way to 425 TPE. This team had 6 players over 400 TPE, that's pretty solid, unfortunately that just simply isn't enough to keep up with the recent influx of new players to OTHER TEAMS, all eager to maximize TPE. Even just a few misses on picks, or lack of picks altogether can completely destroy a team. League leading Maine had 10 players over 400 TPE, and enough players behind those that they didn't even have to play anyone under 260 TPE any serious minutes. Detroit had a 211 TPE defender play 1400 minutes. That's certainly not supposed to happen. Overall Grade: C-.

S79 SMJHL Entry Draft:

Detroit:
#27: Quazon Brosonchi - RW - Reached Peak TPE
#43: Twinkle Toes - RD/LD - Reached Peak TPE
#59: Lucas Dill - G - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (217)

Traded Picks:
#14(CAR): Greyson Willis - LW - Reached Peak TPE

Apparently, that's all it takes. Once again, a miss on a goalie pick. At this point you just have to feel bad. It's not like they could have known. Why does this keep happening to them? 33-29-4 and an immediate first round sweep. It's just an average season, no more, no less. Seven players at peak TPE, an average goalie, but they just can't get enough depth to send anything outside of their first line to the next level. A missed goalie pick really brings this season down, and now a 180 TPE defenseman earns 1300 minutes... Overall Grade: C-.

S80 SMJHL Entry Draft:

Detroit:
#7: Vasher Summers - RD - Reached Peak TPE
#40: Mathieu Mathématique - LD - Reached Peak TPE
#56: ty wells - C - Zero Activity (155)

Traded Picks:
#24(CAR): Honza Havran - G - Reached Peak TPE

This doesn't seem very fair at all! Why do they get to have a peak goalie? I wonder how Detroit did this year with their complete lack of depth, maybe they can get something good from somewhere...

S80 Detroit Waiver Report:
Mitch Morris - LD - working on it (274)
John Gibson - G - Reached Peak TPE

S80 Detroit IFA Report:
Lucas Dill - G - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (217)
Maverick Reynolds - RD/LD - Reached Peak TPE
Bas O'Bigbers Jr. - RW/LW/C - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (350)
Andrei Vasilevskiy - G - Did Not Reach Peak TPE (163)

Yeah, you really hate to see this. This is a team that just needs to fill a roster with whatever and prepare themselves for the rebuild. You know, maybe I've been too harsh. This is true Detroit activity here. No Goal is learning from the very best, and the tank is in full effect. Expect an extremely stacked draft here in near future. Record on the season: 15-46-5. Oh boy... That's uh. Bad. The second worst offense and second worst defense combine to create the worst overall team in the league. I think a turnaround is closer than most think. Overall Grade: F+.

S81 SMJHL Entry Draft:

Detroit:
#1: Thurston Bull - LW - Making Progress (231 as of writing)
#17: Matt Smith - C - Making Progress (230 as of writing)
#31(NLB) - Maximus Decimus Meridius - RW - Making Progress (234 as of writing)
#33: D-Rok - RD - I genuinely can't find him? (?????) (237 as of writing)
#47(NLB): Jonas Gray - LW - Making Progress (228 as of writing)
#49: Bingankus Glunksplosion - LD - Making Progress (233 as of writing)
#65: Lou Logsky - LW - Making Progress (223 as of writing)
#81: Brady Johnson - LW - Bought 4 Card Packs Then Disappeared? (155 as of writing)

Traded Picks:
NONE

Oh yeah. That is more like it. Look at all those active players. I wonder what else they did...

S81 IFA Report:

Detroit:
Wyatt Brooks - RD - Zero Activity (155)
Darrin Turner-Yell - LW - Zero Activity (155)
Jouni Paarma - LW - Zero Activity (155)
Ivan Volchenkov - RW - Zero Activity (155)
Ogge Ortby - LW - Zero Activity (155)

Understandable. Have to keep a full roster somehow. Already this is an incredible turnaround. They have removed more than half of the inactives, and replaced them with extremely efficient max earning rookies almost immediately. The team has improved greatly from last year, and their outlook on championship window could start as early as next season with some good trades or pickups. This team will absolutely be contending in 2 season's time, so everyone else beware.

This is certainly a different method of rebuilding from their previous rebuilds, and maybe it isn't as immediately exciting, but hey, contending is contending, and this team will surely be contending here soon. The infamous Detroit Short-Rebuild™ may not be in effect, but this drawn out and thoughtful effort from No Goal and OVOXO is certainly going to culminate in some sort of finals run. They are already thinking about the next few seasons, receiving a S82 1st rounder from Vancouver for Chappell Roan. S84 contention maybe, S85 definitely, and who knows what the future holds for this team. Not everyone can be a Sconnie, Vaxlare, or Aephino, but it probably helps to follow in the footsteps of the greats.


3015 words - 14 title words = 3001 total words

Great read! it gave me a view on our recent history (and I love it!)