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[J+H Media] Thoughts and Simulation for Upcoming SHL Expansion
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(This post was last modified: 03-24-2025, 05:19 PM by Chris-McZehrl. Edited 6 times in total.)

I am here today to look at the numbers and the facts of the SHL for the SHL Expansion and how many Teams we could see in the end. I also will try to do the Expansion Draft if it would be now after this playoffs and prior S82 Rookie Draft.
We have actually 984 active listed Players (included S82 Draft Class and S83 Draft Class) from 16th March 2025 but excluded all retired players (Date: 17th March 2025).

Actually we have 20 SHL Teams and 16 SMJHL Teams.

What I saw on the most Teams, for the sim they need 9 Forwards + 6 Defender + 1 Goalie (+ one Backup with some games).

We come now to some numbers and Graphs for the SHL.
[Image: nhjd8k83.webp]


First let us Talk about the Activity Check Statistics since Season 73 until now.
[Image: 7afvmo3d.webp]

Now we do the same with the Training Option.
[Image: vr8o4wih.webp]

The next will be a small survey about the team situation with Players per team (included also all prospects until S81 Draftees), the Age Average in Seasons and the TPE Average of them all.
[Image: aj34wdy5.webp]

I also included the retired players after Season 81, the actual UFAs 700+ TPE they aren’t retired and then also the upcoming S82 SHL Draftees 200+ TPE.

I came to this conclusion
20 x 17 = 340 open Spots
578 (all actives excluding retired players) - 340 = 238 without a Spot (272 total spots in SMHL without new Rookies for S83)
238 / 2 Expansion Teams = 119 players per Team
238 / 4 Expansion Teams = 59,5 players per Team


actually 24,15 Players per Team in League Average
94 Rookies in S82 SHL Draft = 4,7 Players per Team in Average
14 Players will retire until S82 Draftees
UFAs 700+ TPE not retired = 15 with Age Average of 72,4 and TPE Average of 846,53 / that would be 0,75 Player per Team from UFA
any team protect 10 Players (example) and the S82 + S81 Draftees will be auto-protected: then in average should be 10 Players per Team available for SHL Expansion Draft
10 Players per Team x 20 (actual SHL Teams) = 200 Players available for the Expansion Draft
200 / 2 Teams = 100 Options
200 / 4 Teams = 50 Options
most important Team Spots: 1st + 2nd Line F (6) + D (4) & G (1) = 11 Players
11 Players x actually 20 Teams = 220 Players needed
11 Players x 22 SHL Teams = 242 Players needed
11 Players x 24 SHL Teams = 264 Players needed
11 Players x 16 SMJHL Teams = 176 Players needed
Overall needed players for SHL 20 teams + SMJHL 16 Teams = 396
Overall needed players for SHL 22 teams + SMJHL 16 Teams = 418
Overall needed players for SHL 24 teams + SMJHL 16 Teams = 440

In result that means with 4 Expansion Teams for full active Lines 1 & 2 in Offense and Defense + also one Goalie we need 440 Actives for SHL and SMJHL. Actually our number of AC & Training for this season on average is 448 Members. With that 4 Teams could be the right decision. With 578 Players they still have an active status and the average number of 24.15 Players per team + 4.7 SHL S82 Rookies would be at around 29 Players per Team (calculated with 20 SHL Teams). With 4 SHL Expansion Teams any SHL Team would lose 4 unprotected players and in conclusion the SHL Teams would still be at around 25 Players per Team in average until S83 SHL Draft. The Expansion Teams would then have each 20 Players per Team. In the last SHL Expansions the ruling was clear. Any existing SHL Team can protect 10 players or 7 Forwards + 4 Defender + 1 Goalie. The Draftees from the last two SHL Rookie Drafts will be auto protected. Those Protections Slots can't be traded and pending Free Agents are not allowed to leave the Expansion Teams to their former teams for one full season. Players with No Trade Clauses are also auto protected also the Head GMs and Co-GMs. Expansion Teams will get the 3rd or 5th highest odds for SHL Draft Lottery. The Team that picks first in Expansion Draft will have the later SHL Rookie Draft Picks. That means if the Expansion Team A has the 1st OVA, B the 2nd OVA, C the 3rd OVA and 4th the 4th OVA, then for the Rookie Draft Team D will have the first Draft Pick followed by C, B and A. The Expansion Draft will have the snake style. The Expansion GMs must use the very last Round Pick of the Expansion Draft for their own players. If the Expansion GM named before the Expansion Draft already the Co-GM then this Player must be protected in the 2nd round. But the Expansion GM also can do it after the Expansion Draft. If this member is not in their own team until then, the Expansion GM needs to trade for the Co-GM. There is no permission to talk with them until their SHL GMs allow it. The biggest question actually is about Expansion Draft and Trading. You can't trade Expansion Picks but is it possible to say to the SHL Expansion GM, please take Player X and we do a deal with a Rookie Draft Pick or Rookie from the auto protected list? In real life in the NHL this happened and why not in the SHL too?

Why wouldn't I actually do a SMJHL Expansion? I am very unsure that Season 83, 84 or 85 will also have those massive Rookie Numbers. If I am right, then the SMJHL will be very hurt with Expansion actually. I also always see the SMJHL as Rookie & Farm-League to the SHL and that means it is built around the SHL and in first place for the rookies that they generate more interest to the league and feel good in the SHL world. I don’t see that actually with some sitting very long outside as Free Agents if they miss the SMJHL Draft or just being in the bottom roles because of all those send downs. For me the SMJHL was always the welcome league to the new SMJHL Rookies. Maybe the SMJHL HO should rethink the actual citation. SHL always is the primary. I also would rather see more younger SHL Debut Players than sitting so many in the SMJHL or even being UFA because there are no spots in the SHL. I would say 2 Seasons in the SMJHL as max time would give SMJHL Rookies more chances to shine. The SMJHL also could bring in a rule with the max total TPE a member will be SMJHL eligible. Actually the Sophomores can have max 350 applied TPE and the 3rd Year SMJHL Players max 450 TPE. The SMJHL should bring in the rule that all players over 750 TPE aren't eligible for the SMJHL Season. Time Deadline would be the SMJHL Rookie Draft.

The small Simulation of any Team if S82 we would see the SHL Expansion without SHL Expansion GMs:

Protections:

Atlanta Inferno
F - Jae-ik Barron
F - Nathan McExplosion (GM)
F - Billy Herrington
F - Mia Lavoie
F - Edouard Lavoie
F - Jiggle E. Puff
F - Violet Stoica
D - Philippe-Eko Eel (GM)
D - Kristian Seppanen
D - Dan Johnston
D - Georg N’Zola
G - Denebor Milasch

Baltimore Platoon
F - Thomas Liebold
F - Inge Baardsen
F - William Tree
F - Cracker Pizza
F - Anthony Louchard
F - Ekatarina Valieva
F - M’Baku Olubori
D - Ace Lightning (GM)
D - Philip Fry
D - Bellamy Blake
D - John Hopoate
G - Evil Kyle Murray

Buffalo Stampede
F - Christina Fantobens (GM)
F - Jean-Jacques Francois Jacques-Jean
F - Elaina Beneski
F - Dejana Kaptina
F - Easton Schaffer
F - Daniel Grumathan
F - Jarrod Lakemore
D - Furious Chicken
D - Eric Vanderberg Jr (GM)
D - Slowpoke
D - Jaxson Reaper
G - Meo Vanbiesbrouck

Calgary Dragons
F - Freya Solberg
F - Sonja Solberg
F - Literally Wizard
F - Jennifer Huh
F - Anna Skovgaard
F - James Howlett
F - Walbilly Koala
D - Jaden Tanner (GM)
D - Kaarlo Koivunen
D - Sven Holmberg
D - Oranj Konhe
G - Anastasia Söderström (GM)

Chicago Syndicate
F - Alexandros Mograne (GM)
F - Sad Ketchup
F - Cal Juice
F - Slava-Ukraini Heroyam-Slava
F - Pique Boo
F - MattyJ
F - Zeus Storm
D - Ho Lee-Smokes (GM)
D - Leo Roze
D - Max Belcher
D - McLovin
G - Elvar Gil Galad

Edmonton Blizzard
F - Olafur Atlason (GM)
F - Alexa Johansen
F - Matviy Cajabi
F - Cristoforo Roccamontepiano
F - Spaceman Spiff
F - Ima Noobie
F - Duke Howard
D - Hip Hurts
D - Jeyeff Effo
D - Matthias (GM)
D - Roisin Armagh
G - QCCBOT4

Hamilton Steelhawks
F - Hughes Incorporated
F - Jani Mänty
F - Trevor Lahey
F - Activity Check
F - Raw Cheese McPickle
F - Clarence Worley
D - Will Nuck
D - Marko Kivimäki
G - PeanutButter Zamboni
G - Walter Scheibli

Los Angeles Panthers
F - Emeric Gagner (GM)
F - Mac Griddle
F - Teemu Salami
F - Andren Akerson
F - Oliver Castillon
F - Derek Martin
F - Axel Kirby
D - Brooklyn Physt
D - Lazer Gato
D - Olivija Agate
D - Willow Söderberg-Snooks
G - Grzegorz Brzęczyszczykiewicz

Manhattan Rage
F - Betzee Nickelback
F - Celeste Desjardins
F - Ylib Kove
F - Roger Murdock
F - Elly Snow-Leopard
F - Mary Hollywood
F - Jauhnne Hawky
D - Kenneth Lind (GM)
D - Arnost Hlemyzd (GM)
D - Niclas Sundqvist
D - Jacppo Nummilavinsv
G - Wayne Holloway

Minnesota Monarchs
F - Normand Marineau
F - Grindle Waters-Johnson (GM)
F - Andrade La Sombra
F - Marian Hanak
F - Dwayne Swanson
F - Dan Craig
F - Damien Hirano
D - Dieter Frühstück
D - Mephistopheles Morgonstjärna
D - Mit Wobet
D - Carter Crutchfield
G - Scary Jerry

Montreal Patriotes
F - Rodrigo Banes (GM)
F - Xavier Beausoleil
F - Jussi Mutou
F - Florian Söderberg-Motyla
F - Emil Karlsson
F - Jamie Fraser
F - Swedish Chef
D - Chuck Stewart
D - GM’s Son (GM)
D - Demir Bellona
D - Deth Klaw
G - Song Ju-gong

New England Wolfpack
F - Tip Toasty
F - Hotdog Lunch
F - Jackass Pants (GM)
F - Louis Belanger
F - Lily Jin Morrow
F - Mac Turner
F -  Nathan Cormier
D - Oliver Cornwall (GM)
D - Troy McClure III
D - Ongo Gablogian
D - Pork Tenderloin
G - Five-Hole Sieve

New Orleans Specters
F - Scar Bealey (GM)
F - Blade Hunter
F - Lyle Odelein IV
F - Nanashi Mumei
F - Luca Pane
F - Lester Oiduser
F - Dusty Rhodes
D - Artturi Lappalainen (GM)
D - Mikkel Enevoldsen
D - Abbe Wass
D - Smitty Werbenjaegermanjensen
G - Bernard Lodge

Philadelphia Forge
F - Ubba Lodbrok
F - Marek Carda
F - Tony Soprano
F - Leonard Wood
F - Gnabe Dabson
F - Nor Ge
F - Jacob Marsh
D - Cale Salad (GM)
D - Barcus Juneau
D - 3WW Wingmate-Roc
D - Johnny Shuffleboard
G - Graj Virrok

San Francisco Pride
F - Logan Webb
F - Dominik Winters
F - Mercedes Bayle
F - Levin Shattenaxt
F - Oskar Scholz
F - Filip Svatos
F - Viktor Hargreeves
D - Rowan O’Beirne (GM)
D - Sydney Shaw (GM)
D - Journey Man
D - Nostradamus
G - Justin Time

Seattle Argonauts
F - Campbell Fischermann (GM)
F - Prince Marius
F - Rence Sykut
F - Will Tomlander
F - Squidwardo Tentacles
F - Shadow Fenix
F - Gordon McFischermann
D - Stavros Kondos (GM)
D - AT-AT Wollker
D - Jesus Murphy
D - Kal Akar Kekkonen
G - Henri Losanov

Tampa Bay Barracuda
F - Shawn Pawn (GM)
F - Dag-Otto Björntjänst
F - Brayden Point
F - Teddy Bloos
F - Max Carnage
F - Kevin Kim
F - The Murray
D - Zedward Williams
D - Guy Incognito
D - Dunkler Sowerwine
D - RIP THUNDERDOME 2013-2023
G - Tibuk Soonika

Texas Renegades
F - Brandon Gilleyes
F - Thomas Hudson
F - Chris McZehrl III
F - Emile Dionne
F - Djoe Anderson
F - Marton Diehm
F - Jack St.Clair
D - Jack McCarthy
D - Hodor
D - Cadmael Ixazuluoh
D - Jonas Salat
G - Anthony Dionne (GM)

Toronto North Stars
F - Aumy Junior II
F - Gordon-William Gibbles
F - James Ward-Prowse
F - Niclas Wastlund
F - Leighton Oligny
F - Meta Knight
F - Jordan Bamford
D - Westley Kirkpatrick
D - Cade de Vries
D - Crazy Tomato II
D - Micoolis Gonnawinthecup
G - Gino Fortezza

Winnipeg Aurora
F - Pohler Beargeron (GM)
F - Chuck Lumbermouth (GM)
F - Langston Hardison-Laurent
F - Yuri Boyka III
F - Hockey Player
F - Ville Sato-Maki
F - Hamper Linthome
D - Juan Tymer
D - Jett Labyrinth
D - Solaire of Astora
D - Jeremy Snugglemuffin III
G - Katharina Rosenthal

So now we do the SHL Expansion Draft with Expansion Team A, B, C and D. Team A will be a team that is looking for SHL ready players. Team B and C will look just for young rising Stars and Team D is looking for best available with best Age and TPE Average.

Round One:

Team C: F - Pinli Switchbang (Seattle)
Team D: D - Jaromir Jagrbomb (Manhattan)
Team B: D - Simo Jääsekälinen (Seattle)
Team A: G - Rhett "Shaggy" Carpet (Winnipeg)

Round Two:

Team A: D - Jay Bryzi (Winnipeg)
Team B: D - John Peanut (Montreal)
Team D: F - Chris Valentine (San Francisco)
Team C: D - Paul Bondage (Atlanta)

Round Three:

Team C: D - Roquefort Cotswold (Seattle)
Team D: D - Elena Maximova (LA)
Team B: F - Charlie Slurpe (Montreal)
Team A: F - Johnny FourStar (Montreal)

Round Four:

Team A: D - Peter Tingle (New England)
Team B: F - Robo Sven (Hamilton)
Team D: F - Sunrise van de Schubbekutteveen (Calgary)
Team C: F - Sam Volta (Chicago)

Round Five:

Team C: F - Gwendolyn Telenn (Edmonton)
Team D: F - Antoine Beauregard (New England)
Team B: F - - bongo (Atlanta)
Team A: D - Nathaniel Barca (Philadelphia)

Round Six:

Team A: F - Ekaterina Valieva (Baltimore)
Team B: D - Johnny Patey V2 (Montreal)
Team D: G - BASE PACK (Philadelphia)
Team C: F - Jefferson Steelflex (Seattle)

Round Seven:

Team C: D - Elliot Alderson (Hamilton)
Team D: D - Toasty Söderberg-Snooks (San Francisco)
Team B: F - Bobby Tkachuky (Edmonton)
Team A: D - Hugh Manius (New Orleans)

Round Eight:

Team A: F - Thomas Sawschuk (New England)
Team B: F - Kenny Omega (New England)
Team D: F - Barg Hazbite (Philadelphia)
Team C: D - Hip Hurts (Edmonton)

Round Nine:

Team C: F - Jason Bourne (Chicago)
Team D: D - Billy Hill (New Orleans)
Team B: D - Dash Jackson (Edmonton)
Team A: F - Austin Morley (Manhattan)

Round Ten:

Team A: D - Sim Wen (Atlanta)
Team B: F - NoNo Jo (Winnipeg)
Team D: F - Shootin Blanks (Buffalo)
Team C: D - Kiwi Söderberg-Snooks (Chicago)

Round Eleven:

Team C: F - Puddles O'Duckling (Atlanta)
Team D: F - Iliket Urtles (Texas)
Team B: F - Mary Hollywood (Manhattan)
Team A: F - Johnny Wagner-Svenson (Tampa)

Round Twelve:

Team A: F - Adam Prpich (LA)
Team B: F - Mark "The Tater Tot" Jagerson (Philadelphia)
Team D: F - Erik Bergmark (Baltimore)
Team C: F - Dominic Enselmo (Hamilton)

Round Thirteen:

Team C: D - Aslak Hestnes (Calgary)
Team D: D - shnopple Ioole (Manhattan)
Team B: D - Trevor Lopez (Chicago)
Team A: D - Rasmus Bergling (LA)

Round Fourteen:

Team A: D - Nash Topalo (New Orleans)
Team B: D - Fredrik Gronlund (Calgary)
Team D: F - Arthur Kaliyev (Winnipeg)
Team C: G - Jeff Kirkstone III (New Orleans)

Round Fifteen:

Team C: F - Jeffrey Bjelland (Calgary)
Team D: D - I-Stir MyPudding (Hamilton)
Team B: F - Bean Beanman Jr (Buffalo)
Team A: F - Rikkert Biemans (Tampa)

Round Sixteen:

Team A: F - Julian Flörsch (Minnesota)
Team B: G - Roman Cechmanek (Texas)
Team D: D - Jølngüštrâädüvich DuBølk (Tampa)
Team C: F - Kral King (Minnesota)

Round Seventeen:

Team C: F - Lucas Raymond (Texas)
Team D: D - John Brown (Tampa)
Team B: D - Valerija Serapin (Buffalo)
Team A: D - Might-go IA (Texas)

Round Eighteen:

Team A: F - Alexi Piastri (Toronto)
Team B: D - Sebastien Levesque (Minnesota)
Team D: F - Pass Forfeit (LA)
Team C: F - Peyton Campeau (Buffalo)

Round Nineteen:

Team C: F - Gewmba Stolemamoney (Minnesota)
Team D: D - Benjamin Surkhi-Ze’ev (San Francisco Pride)
Team B: D - Jimothee Penjiman (Toronto)
Team A: F - Ray Alexander (Baltimore)

Round Twenty:

Team A: D - Isamu Knievel (Toronto)
Team B: D - Micoolis Gonnawinthecup (Toronto)
Team D: G - Grant Berd (Baltimore)
Team C: F - Edzus Ozolins (San Francisco Pride)

So max 4 Players from an existing SHL Team will be taken. In my opinion it would be a very interesting Expansion Draft and surely there will be different tactics. I believe that one team will have the eyes on nearly only younger players to build something up. Then you have at minimum a Team that will build a Contender, maybe a 2nd one but this one is also looking for not too many old players. And the 4th Option I believe will look in ages. They won't regress in the future 1-2 seasons but still can make the playoffs. In Result we will have this teams in my small Expansion Simulation:

Team A
G - Rhett "Shaggy" Carpet (Winnipeg)
D - Jay Bryzi (Winnipeg)
D - Peter Tingle (New England)
D - Nathaniel Barca (Philadelphia)
D - Hugh Manius (New Orleans)
D - Sim Wen (Atlanta)
D - Rasmus Bergling (LA)
D - Nash Topalo (New Orleans)
D - Might-go IA (Texas)
D - Isamu Knievel (Toronto)
F - Johnny FourStar (Montreal)
F - Ekaterina Valieva (Baltimore)
F - Thomas Sawschuk (New England)
F - Austin Morley (Manhattan)
F - Johnny Wagner-Svenson (Tampa)
F - Adam Prpich (LA)
F - Rikkert Biemans (Tampa)
F - Julian Flörsch (Minnesota)
F - Alexi Piastri (Toronto)
F - Ray Alexander (Baltimore)

Team B
G - Roman Cechmanek (Texas)
D - Valerija Serapin (Buffalo)
D - Simo Jääsekälinen (Seattle)
D - John Peanut (Montreal)
D - Johnny Patey V2 (Montreal)
D - Dash Jackson (Edmonton)
D - Trevor Lopez (Chicago)
D - Fredrik Gronlund (Calgary)
D - Sebastien Levesque (Minnesota)
D - Jimothee Penjiman (Toronto)
D - Micoolis Gonnawinthecup (Toronto)
F - Charlie Slurpe (Montreal)
F - Robo Sven (Hamilton)
F - - bongo (Atlanta)
F - Bobby Tkachuky (Edmonton)
F - Kenny Omega (New England)
F - Mary Hollywood (Manhattan)
F - Mark "The Tater Tot" Jagerson (Philadelphia)
F - Bean Beanman Jr (Buffalo)
F - NoNo Jo (Winnipeg)

Team C
G - Jeff Kirkstone III (New Orleans)
D - Paul Bondage (Atlanta)
D - Roquefort Cotswold (Seattle)
D - Elliot Alderson (Hamilton)
D - Hip Hurts (Edmonton)
D - Kiwi Söderberg-Snooks (Chicago)
D - Aslak Hestnes (Calgary)
F - Pinli Switchbang (Seattle)
F - Sam Volta (Chicago)
F - Gwendolyn Telenn (Edmonton)
F - Jefferson Steelflex (Seattle)
F - Jason Bourne (Chicago)
F - Puddles O'Duckling (Atlanta)
F - Dominic Enselmo (Hamilton)
F - Jeffrey Bjelland (Calgary)
F - Kral King (Minnesota)
F - Lucas Raymond (Texas)
F - Peyton Campeau (Buffalo)
F - Gewmba Stolemamoney (Minnesota)
F - Edzus Ozolins (San Francisco Pride)

Team D
G - BASE PACK (Philadelphia)
G - Grant Berd (Baltimore)
D - Jimothee Penjiman (Toronto)
D - Jaromir Jagrbomb (Manhattan)
D - Elena Maximova (LA)
D - Toasty Söderberg-Snooks (San Francisco)
D - Billy Hill (New Orleans)
D - shnopple Ioole (Manhattan)
D - I-Stir MyPudding (Hamilton)
D - Jølngüštrâädüvich DuBølk (Tampa)
D - John Brown (Tampa)
F - Chris Valentine (San Francisco)
F - Sunrise van de Schubbekutteveen (Calgary)
F - Antoine Beauregard (New England)
F - Barg Hazbite (Philadelphia)
F - Shootin Blanks (Buffalo)
F - Iliket Urtles (Texas)
F - Erik Bergmark (Baltimore)
F - Arthur Kaliyev (Winnipeg)
F - Pass Forfeit (LA)

I really like the Teams here. Of course it is just a small simulation of the Expansion Draft but we always had one team to try to build a strong one and the one with a build up for the future. This time if we have 4 then I really believe we will see one Team tries all to get the best roster after the Draft, one the youngest and the other two will be mixed a bit. Let us see what happens in SHL soon and also how many Expansion Teams we will see. I hope you can enjoy my calculations, graphics and in the end the Expansion Draft Simulation if it would be right after this playoffs not next!

3100 words + idk the word count on my calculations

Chris McZehrl III - Texas Renegades
Chris McZehrl III - Anchorage Armada
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#2

Damn, love the insight and thought. Going to be a fun offseason or two.

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#3

Incredible amount of work Chris, good job!

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#4

I like this but there is one change I would make

Only have 15 rounds of expansion with 4 teams - that means 60 players
Each current team would lose only 3 players each: 20 teams x 3 players
A full roster is 17 players (inc 2 goalies) plus prospects
the expansion teams would still have to go to FA or the draft to flesh out their rosters rather than be gifted a fully active team of players plus prospects

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#5

Let's go Team C

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#6

03-17-2025, 09:31 PMMuerto Wrote: I like this but there is one change I would make

Only have 15 rounds of expansion with 4 teams - that means 60 players
Each current team would lose only 3 players each: 20 teams x 3 players
A full roster is 17 players (inc 2 goalies) plus prospects
the expansion teams would still have to go to FA or the draft to flesh out their rosters rather than be gifted a fully active team of players plus prospects

Actually think this is a great take.

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#7

Good read but im being left unprotected

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#8

Go Team A!!!

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