[SHN Corsi Corner] The percent chance each team will win their round 2 matchup
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![]() (As a note, I copied this intro from round 1) SHL playoffs are here, which means it’s once again time to run the numbers and report the percent chance that each team has of winning any given game, and subsequently their series. Just like my media series about this every playoffs, the graphs and series chance for each matchup will be updated after every sim or two, and some context and stats will be added for individual games, as well as the series as a whole. This year, @Nhamlet and @”reid” will be joining me in covering some of the specific matchups for round 2, which features a rematch from the last two season in the East, as well as the top 2 teams from the West squaring off. As always, before just going straight into the numbers, I’d like to clarify some of the background and theory behind how this breakdown works. None of the methodology changed from last season, so feel free to skip it if you’re familiar with where these numbers come from, or if you just don’t care. Numbers only: The most important thing for me to clarify, is that these aren’t my ‘predictions’ of who’s going to win each series. It’s just reporting the probabilities of team wins, based on that team’s scoring trends. There’s no context behind the probabilities, it’s literally just statistics. Other members of the SHN have/will put out their own spins of the specific breakdown of each matchup, and those pieces are where you’ll find more context and predictions about each series. Tactics: This is the biggest flaw in all these numbers. They’re just using season averages, where a lot of teams likely found the best tactics for their team in a broad, general sense, and went with them to try and win as many games as possible. However, come playoffs with 4-7 games against the same opponent, teams will be trying to counter the other, or maybe have new line combinations or tactic settings to give them an advantage. This can’t really be reported in my numbers (other than head to head factor which I talk about in a second), so certain teams are going to match up better or worse then the numbers suggest, based on how well they can adjust their strategies. Estimated score: This is the entire foundation of all the probabilities in this series. For each matchup, each team is given an estimated number of goals they’ll score in any given game, which is then used for all the rest of the math in these posts. This number is a function of each team’s scoring trends, both goals for and against, during the 50 game season, relative to league average. The number generated won’t be a real score, it’ll be something impossible to actually score, like 3.41 as a random example. But we use that value to calculate the probability of each team scoring a real number of goals, ranging from 0 to 8 in a single game. Game chances: Using this estimated score and the probabilities that each team scores a certain amount of goals, we can estimate the percent chance that each team will win any given game. Series chances: Once we have the percent chance that each team will win in either location, we can extrapolate to calculate the probability of each team winning at least 4 out of the 7 games for the series win. No momentum: I know that momentum is a thing in FHM, but these numbers won't take that into account directly. However, I’ve changed how the expected goals are calculated this season, and the matchup values will be weighted more heavily towards the team’s head-to-head record on the season then I weighted them last playoffs. This means that if a team wins 2 games in a row in the series, although the actual momentum modifier from FHM won’t be considered, that team’s odds will still increase more significantly, because they’ll also have performed better in the head-to-head modifier on my end. Home vs. Away: Also a new change from last playoffs, I decided to scrap the home vs. away distinction in the code. Although some teams really did perform much differently based on location, I decided 25 games for each was too small of a sample size, and things like a few bad games, or playing backup goalies more in one location could really skew the numbers, and as a result, the entire probabilities. Team scoring stats are based on their 50 game season stats, as well as updated for playoff stats as each game is played. Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does. Matchup breakdown: This is the first of the graphs that will be updated after each game. It compares the two teams in each matchup, and how well each of them are performing relative to each other in a few key stats. Before game 1, the matchup breakdown graphs will just be using season stats, but after game 1, it will be representative of the current playoff matchup. The numbers plotted are per game, and the exact value for each team is also on the graph. Series tracker: This final graph represents each team’s series chances after each game. Before game 1, it will be a very boring graph with just two points, but after each game it will track how the series chances change with each team’s win or loss. Ok lets get on to the probabilities. ![]() ![]() Pre series
![]() A repeat matchup from both the season 53 and S54 playoffs is set to take place in the Eastern Conference Finals. Buffalo actually dominated the season series 5-1, so it will be interesting to see how this series plays out. Buffalo is coming off a 4-1 dispatching of the Chicago Syndicate, whereas the Steelhawks are coming off of a nail biting 7 game series against the Manhattan Rage. The Stampede start with a 56.5% chance to win game 1, and a 63.9% chances to win the series overall against the Steelhawks. If they are able to win the series, it would be the first time in the FHM era that they would beat Hamilton in a playoff series. All eyes will be on rookie starter A Jobin of the Steelhawks to see if he can repeat departed veteran Geezus Kryyst’s performance from last year and stonewall the Stampede.
General series stats
![]() ![]() Game 1
![]() ![]() ![]() Whew boy, I think a lot of folks probably were willing to put money and TPE on the Stampede to take this series, but at the very least expected a much closer fight than what we’ve seen so far. Instead what we got was a thrashing on the level of how Buffalo handles a Baltimore Platoon or Winnipeg Jets. In particular, the overall discrepancy was demonstrated in the battle of the 3rd lines with Hamilton’s trio of Hugh Jazz, Knute Knurtsson, and Jagger Fouquette being a -4 for the game and Buffalo using their home ice advantage to get their top line to feast on the opposition. In some ways, this general shot difference isn’t much worse than what we’ve seen with Buffalo and Chicago or Hamilton and Manhattan. However, combined with the absolute clinical nature of Buffalo directing 56 of their 72 shot attempts on net and putting away 5 of them, that’s still just on another level. Jobin didn’t play poorly for the Steelhawks by any measure when you look at a 0.91SV. Everybody just has to step up in general to try and steal a win now that they’re down in the series 1-0. Buffalo has a 76% to win the series. Game 2
![]() ![]() ![]() With the second game in the books, we can already look to a few trends that have been ongoing. For one, the Stampede’s offense and general domination of the puck has been almost surprising. It shouldn’t be as this team has shown quality all season though there were small doubts about how much better they were than the other top contenders, given Buffalo’s schedule of having the weakest of the teams to play against more often. With another strong playoff opponent and simply just neutering their offense in all intents and purposes while also scoring at will, the Stampede have shown to be juggernauts. For the Steelhawks, this will feel like a game that was potentially one they missed. With a poor showing from Elizabeth Doyle and being able to score 3 goals, that would have been enough for Hamilton on most regular nights but the Stampede have been anything but regular. With almost a 2:1 corsi ratio, Buffalo is firmly in the driver’s seat. Hamilton will need an amazing performance from their goaltending on top of timely scoring to have a chance. Buffalo sits in the driver seat with 88.3% chance to win the series. Game 3
![]() ![]() ![]() The Steelhawks have finally done it. Despite some missed opportunities in Game 2 and being completely dominated in Game 1, they’ve managed to put everything together and find the smallest hole in the Stampede's armor. It was a nervy game for Hamilton as they had to battle back from the 1-0 deficit in tying it in the 2nd and fend off the Buffalo attack all game, especially when they were on the penalty kill. Who knew that was the opportunity they needed as their go ahead and eventual game winning goal was scored short handed. Overall the shot attempts haven’t particularly changed from the past couple games. Perhaps the biggest credit goes to Jobin who put on a show, shutting the door after letting the 1st goal in and posting a sparkling 0.97SV for the rest of the game. That being said, hoping that your rookie goaltender continues to help you steal games might not be a sustainable plan and it’ll be interesting how long they can keep it up as a group. Buffalo still has a 73% chance to win the series. Game 4
![]() ![]() ![]() If I had to describe this game, I would say heartbreaking. After a performance from last game, the Steelhawks were so desperately hoping that they could continue that momentum and tie the series up at 2. Things started out pretty well with a 2-0 lead going into the 3rd period. Of course, this is the S55 Buffalo we’re talking about and then they finally were able to get rolling, they became unstoppable. 3 straight goals to erase the deficit and then some. In particular, the van Otter game winner was a back breaker with how little time there was left, rather than being able to go at it again with another fresh period. Somehow Hamilton was able to find lanes to get the majority of their chances in having 30 shots on goal, which looks to be the most they’ve had all series. Unfortunately it just wasn’t enough and they fall short, now being on the verge of elimination with Buffalo holding a 3-1 series advantage and an equally commanding 90.7% chance to win the series. Game 5
![]() ![]() ![]() Similar to game 1, this was just one where Buffalo was unstoppable offensively. Rather it was just the sheer overwhelming talent that can create, continue and convert chances, the domineering defensive play that saw the 4th highest scoring team in the regular season only score an average of 1.5 goals a game when they averaged almost 4 goals a game before...it’s clear now that while the triple headed monster of the Great Lakes was always a threat, there’s only clear king of them all. It’ll be interesting to see how much of a difference there is between the top 3 teams in the league, but the current gulf between the 1st and 2nd tier appears significant. Of special note, with this being the final game for Tig Murphy in a Steelhawks uniform, he was able to put up a 2G, 6A and 8P in 12 games as the 2nd highest in points behind Lagerfield with 9. ![]() ![]() Pre series
![]() In a matchup of Western Giants, Edmonton and New Orleans were the top two teams in the West this season. Edmonton won the season series 3-1, and will hope for a repeat of that this series. The defending Champions should not be underestimated however, as they bested the Blizzard in the first round last season 4-2. The Blizzard are coming off of a commanding sweep of Texas, whereas the Specters had a dominant 3-0 lead on Calgary before dropping 2 games and winning game 6 to finish things off. Edmonton owns a 58% chance to win game 1, and a 67% chance to win the series, although I would expect it to be a fiercely fought battle all series long.
General series stats
![]() ![]() Game 1
![]() ![]() ![]() As much as the Buffalo/Hamilton game one was a bit of a surprise in its own way of how the game panned out, the Edmonton/New Orleans battle was perhaps even more of a shocker with its twists and turns. In particular, it looked like Edmonton had the Specters potentially dead on arrival, coming out to a 2-1 lead after the first, dominating in shots as well as adding a 3rd early in the 3rd, extending their lead to 2 goals. Even with New Orleans battling back every step of the way, the most they could do was continue to keep it at a 2 goal deficit by the time the Blizzard scored their 5th and final goal early in the 3rd period. With that it would be enough normally for a team of Edmonton’s quality. However their last season’s ghosts have come back to haunt them in conjunction with the Specters as they rattled off 3 straight to steal game 1. With almost 95 shot attempts for the Blizzard, they were having their way offensively against the Specters in terms of possession. Since they did lose, it’s a lot easier to be pickier looking at their possession as a bit wasteful. 5 goals on 54 isn’t a negative margin but having almost 40 wasted shots either being blocked or missing the net is a lot of prime opportunities to give up. Thanks to this turnaround win, New Orleans evens the table at a slight 53% edge of winning the series. Game 2
![]() ![]() ![]() Similar to their Eastern semi compatriots, the winner of this game was the one who scored 5 goals. The chances while still lopsided for Edmonton, were not as bad as they were last game, though New Orleans still fell behind by at least 30+ shot attempts. There wasn’t the same spark of a comeback this game, as much as the Blizzard were ready for it as they continued to hold the lead all game save a 2 minute period where the Specters tied it up on a Kirkby slapper in the 2nd period. However, they almost immediately responded and added additional insurance goals in the 3rd period. The primary advantage looked to be Edmonton’s ability to takeaway the puck as they had 12 compared to New Orleans 6. The series is tied up meaning that Edmonton has the slight edge at 63.8% of winning the series. Game 3
![]() ![]() ![]() The Hamilton-Buffalo series has been a little bit of a tilted series while the Edmonton and New Orleans has absolutely been a battle to the end. In this case, it required another 10 minutes + of additional play for things to be resolved. The biggest shock from the last couple games is New Orleans completely turning the table on Edmonton and posting nearly 100 corsi (93) compared to Edmonton almost being outshot 2:1. To New Orleans’ credit when Edmonton had the same offensive performance in Game 1, while they weren’t able to score as many, they had prevented Edmonton from climbing ahead. Kirkby has been one of the studs of the series, now having an overtime game winning goal and an assist to add to his playoff campaign with the Specters. So far that trade has looked like its been worth it and potentially more. With things bouncing back and forth, now New Orleans is the one with the slight advantage with 59% chance of winning the series. Game 4
![]() ![]() ![]() Crisscross apple sauce as luke put it when looking at a graph like this. Just when you think that one team is able to run away with the series, the other team responds in kind. It was the Blizzard’s turn to reply and they did so with a clinical performance. The shot attempts for both sides have been as even as they’ve ever been in their series, but between Edmonton’s snipers finding twine and Spector sealing off the Specters, it was a dominating victory for Edmonton and ties up the series at 2. I’d like to say this game encapsulates majority of what I saw this series to be; a very tightly contested battle with equally talented teams, with Edmonton having the edge in their offensive ability and how explosive it can be. The only thing I didn’t expect was the lack of Cain’s influence so far. He’s been a passenger for most of the series and for one of the best goalies in the league, will need to do more to show it. Edmonton now has the perilous 58.2 series lead. Game 5
![]() ![]() ![]() This Western conference series just never stops to provide thrilling entertainment. You just never know which way it’s going to go regardless of who has the lead. This marks the 3rd time that a game has been decided by one goal and the 2nd time that it’s required overtime. For Edmonton, they’ve done well for themselves in scoring first as they’ve done that 3 straight times. Not that it has meant much as they’ve continued to alternate winners, but has left the Specters playing catchup for a bit, until Kirkby got involved offensively again. He has been having a fantastic playoff season with 4G, 6A, 10P with 18 hits and 26 shots blocked in 11 games. New Orleans had the vast advantage in shots this time including the single powerplay opportunity but a great combination effort by James Troung and Tony Pepperoni found themselves tying the game up at 2 with less than 5 minutes to go. Absolute heroics. And then for the Blizzard to grab the overtime winner almost immediately? Just an unstoppable force. Speaking of unstoppable, Theo Morgan continues his amazing streak from the regular season into the playoffs. He leads everybody with points and goals with 6 and 13 respectively while also being incredibly difficult to score against at an unbelievable 0.7GA/60 at the moment. Edmonton has a chance to close out the series now with them having a 3-2 lead at 80.9% chance of winning the series. Game 6
![]() ![]() ![]() This series continues to flip back and forth and pushes both teams to the utter brink as New Orleans staves off elimination with a fantastic offensive showing. They found themselves enjoying a 3-1 lead after the first and by the time the 2nd was over, still continued to hold a 2 goal lead. Lil’ Manius had been quiet all series but finally found his first goal of the playoffs. Truth be told, Edmonton is probably kicking themselves a bit right now between the chance to close out the series after winning two straight as well as having multiple PP opportunities, including less than a minute of 5v3 in the 3rd period. Despite all the extra chances, NOLA was the only one to score with the man advantage as both their skaters and goalie found themselves outperforming their opponents. The series finds itself almost at deadlock in possession, with Edmonton having slightly outscored New Orleans but the Specters having the edge in powerplay conversion. It’ll be interesting whether even strength scoring or special teams will be the deciding factor in the final game. Blizzard currently holds the coin flip’s advantage at 56.5% to win the series. Game 7
![]() ![]() ![]() And just like that ladies and gentlemen, our tightest series of this season’s playoffs has finally come to an end. If it had gone to triple overtime, I wouldn’t have even been surprised but there’s too much offensive talent on either team to have something like that happen. Trying to dissect what the advantage was for either team is difficult because they were so tightly matched up. It might just come down to the fact that it almost felt like Theo Morgan and co compared to the balanced scoring that New Orleans was able to get. If this game was replayed another 10 times it’d probably go both ways equally in each teams’ favor. This time the Specters were the one that broke through thanks to a breakaway goal by Jimmy Slothface set up by Rex Kirkby. I’m pretty sure I didn’t mention this before just because it was a little premature but it’s clear now: Kirkby is having a playoff MVP calibre season. He’s currently tied in team scoring with 12 points as a defenseman with a respectable 53.6% corsi. We’ll find out whether the best of the West will matchup against the Buffalo Stampede as they’re set to play in the finals for the Challenge Cup. Code: split 50/50 between juke and Nhamlet ![]() Sigs: Thanks JNH, Lime, Carpy, and ckroyal92
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