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**esilverm** · 04-08-2019, 05:30 PM

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2586 words and 2x pay bonus for Draft related media

An In-Depth Look at Underperformance in Rookie Seasons

Introduction

Very often a player will have a less-than-productive rookie season. This could be a result of underperformance, very short time on ice, or complete inactivity. Most of the time, these underperforming players go inactive and then go undrafted in the SHL entry draft. However, some of these players tend to go above and beyond and perform above expectations. We will take a look at these players and players from the current SMJHL season that have performed poorly and use this to predict how they will fare in the SHL Entry draft. To do this, we will look at each draft class from S37 to S47 individually to see who stood out and who busted.

A Note

For the sake of my sanity I have only reviewed rookies with over 40 games played and less than or equal to 3 points. This resulted in many players who went undrafted in the SHL but did result in several players that got drafted at the end of the season. Also I wrote this before the playoffs of this season so certain things may have changed for the players I have listed in the S47 draft class

S37

Ethan Driscoll Mammoths

Defense 0-0-0 0.56 TOI Selected 35th in SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Kasper Gudmansøn Firebirds

Forward 0-1-1 2.88 TOI Selected 22nd in SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL

In this season, only two players that scored less than 3 points went undrafted in the SHL entry draft. These players were big busts and didn’t make it to their team’s rosters on the next season. These are the first of many different players that failed to make it past their first year in the league.

Angelo Williams raiders

Defense 0-0-0 0.1 TOI Selected 25th in SMJHL Entry Draft Selected 29th in SHL Entry Draft

This player is an enigma. He went fairly high in the SHL entry draft despite his absolute lack of time on ice, and also his lack of points. I guess his final TPE of 161 was enticing to the West Kendall Platoon. However, this player didn’t see any time on ice for his second season in the SMJHL.

McCringle Fuck Knights

Forward 0-0-0 4.38 TOI Selected 36th in SMJHL Entry Draft Selected 46th in SHL Entry Draft

This player somehow managed to make on to the roster of the Texas Renegades. He only had 0.8 time on ice per game but played in all 50. I guess this can be considered a kind of mediocre rags to riches story.

Logan Jensen Scarecrows

Forward 1-1-2 6.08 TOI Selected 27th in SMJHL Entry Draft Selected 10th in SHL Entry Draft

Of all the players in this draft class, Logan is the most successful. He is currently the second best player on his SHL team in terms of points and helped to lead the St Louis Scarecrows to a Four Star Cup victory in S39.

S38

Evin O’Sullivan Whalers

Forward 0-1-1 1.59 TOI Selected 40th in SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Joonas Huovinen Firebirds

Forward 0-0-0 0.27 TOI Selected 36th in the SMJHL Draft Undrafted in SHL

These players were the biggest busts of their draft class. Both quickly went inactive and failed to make it on to the next season of their SMJHL careers.

Mark Raney Falcons

Defense 0-0-0 4.31 TOI Selected 43rd in the SMJHL Draft Selected 55th in the SHL Draft

This player got drafted by the North Stars. Raney didn’t end up playing in the SMJHL for his next season.

S39

Owen Melanson raiders

Forward 1-0-1 2.87 TOI Selected 64th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Fjorm Lyeskov Knights

Defense 2-1-3 5.87 TOI Selected 53rd in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL

These players were the big busts of their draft class. They didn’t make it past their first season

Sticken Puckster Whalers

Defense 0-0-0 1.33 TOI Selected 65th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL

This player made it past his first season and went on to get 8 points with the Montreal Militia. Then he moved to the Detroit Falcons and scored 12 points. Sadly, this arc of redemption ends here.

Peter J. Walker Scarecrows

Forward 1-2-3 10.83 TOI Undrafted in the SMJHL Selected 50th in the SHL Entry Draft
Michael Fischer Scarecrows

Forward 1-0-1 9.63 TOI Selected 27th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Selected 27th in the SHL Entry Draft

These players were fairly active for a few seasons but went inactive soon after. Michael Fischer went on to win two Four Star Cups with the St Louis Scarecrows and the Kelowna Knights before taking a long hiatus. He returned late this season to play for the San Francisco Pride in the SHL and scored 2 goals in 10 games. He is retiring at the end of this season.

S40

Niklas Wagner Falcons

Forward 0-0-0 0.12 TOI Undrafted in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Peregrine Falcon Firebirds

Forward 3-0-0 10.14 TOI Undrafted in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Gylfi Kristofersson Whalers

Forward 1-1-2 8.83 TOI Selected 20th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Ashley J. Caboose Whalers

Forward 0-0-0 0.12 TOI Selected 31th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL

This season had a lot more players that ended up busting. All but Ashley J. Caboose didn’t make it past their first season. Ashley J. Caboose managed to finish his career with exactly 0 total points over a total of 100 games. I’m not supposed to give my opinion, but that is very impressive

Tylor Schofield Falcons

Forward 1-2-3 3.80 TOI Selected 33rd in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL

Of all the players that went undrafted for the SHL entry draft, Tylor went the furthest in terms of career length. He lasted for 3 seasons in the SMJHL. Scoring 1 point in his second season and 12 in his third.

James Dekens Knights

Forward 1-2-3 5.26 TOI Selected 40th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Selected 30th in the SHL Entry Draft

This player is another successful player to come from very few points in his first season. He currently is second on his team, the Manhattan Rage, with 45 points on the season. He won the Jesster Trophy in S43 and has won 3 Four Star Cups.

S41

Jackson Conklin raiders

Forward 2-1-3 3.53 TOI Undrafted in SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Koda Reece raiders

Forward 0-2-2 5.57 TOI Selected 28th in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Markus Kane Militia

Forward 1-0-1 0.41 TOI Undrafted in SMJHL Undrafted in SHL

This draft didn’t have any successes. All three of these low performers did make it to a second season and of the three, only Conklin and Reece made it past 10 points in their second season. After this season, nearly all three of these players didn’t continue playing. Markus Kane spent the last season in Toronto playing for the North Stars.

S42

William Nylanderthal Raptors

Forward 0-0-0 3.38 TOI Selected 43rd in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Andrew Sayle raiders

Forward 1-1-2 8.59 TOI Selected 30th in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Andrew Mitchell Knights

Forward 0-0-0 0.14 TOI Selected 40th in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Matthew Buffon Firebirds

Forward 0-0-0 2.23 TOI Selected 32nd in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Lukas Toran Scarecrows

Forward 0-0-0 0.27 TOI Selected 31th in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL

This draft class had a very large number of players that went inactive. There were so many that I had to split it into two groups because 4 of them were from one team alone. All of the players above only played for one season.

Vlastimil Volf Militia

Forward 1-0-1 6.66 TOI Selected 12th in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Julien Treadway Militia

Forward 0-0-0 2.07 TOI Selected 36th in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Joey Treadway Militia

Forward 0-0-0 2.71 TOI Selected 44th in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Ryan Peters Militia

Forward 0-0-0 1.25 TOI Selected 24th in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL

This draft was very bad for the Montreal Militia. Almost all of their picks that season went inactive and didn’t score anything. All of these players eventually left the team in the next season.

Johannes Bauer Scarecrows

Forward 2-0-2 3.17 TOI Selected 16th in the SMJHL Selected 51st in the SHL Entry Draft

Of all the rookies with at most 3 points, Bauer got drafted. This however didn’t do anything for his activity and soon after he went inactive and didn’t end up playing in the next season.

S43

Callum MacElroy Knights

Defense 0-0-0 Undrafted in the SMJHL Selected 59th in the SHL Entry Draft

This is the only rookie that had less than 3 points in this season. This could be due to a small draft class. This also contributes to him being drafted into the SHL despite his inactivity. He played the next season in the SMJHL racking up 15 points before leaving due to inactivity.

S44

Chase McAllister Armada

Forward 2-0-2 12.87 TOI Selected 37th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Phoenix Kississippi Armada

Forward 0-1-1 10.83 TOI Undrafted In the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL

Both of these players were busts and didn’t make it to a second season in the SMJHL. Like many others they went inactive quickly.

Takehiko Yukimura Armada

Forward 1-1-2 10.24 TOI Undrafted in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Mister McCarty raiders

Forward 0-3-3 8.38 TOI Selected 33rd in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL

These players made it past their first season and had mild success later on. However, they didn’t make it past their second year so there isn’t much to say about them.

S45

Guy McCool Raptors

Forward 1-2-3 6.02 TOI Selected 30th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Eren Yeager Raptors

Forward 0-0-0 6.15 TOI Undrafted in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL
Ivars Ozols raiders

Forward 2-1-3 9.08 TOI Selected 26th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Jeffery Murphy Knights

Forward 0-1-1 16.02 TOI Selected 37th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Jurij Kovacic Scarecrows

Forward 2-1-3 9.12 TOI Undrafted in the SMJHL Undrafted in SHL

All of these players ended up busting and didn’t return after their first season in the SMJHL.

S46

Frank Mouette raiders

Forward 1-1-2 7.23 TOI Selected 48th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
PJ Paradise raiders

Forward 0-1-1 4.28 TOI Selected 92nd in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Jared Myton Lions

Forward 1-2-3 1.61 TOI Selected 129th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Matias Kunzle Lions

Defense 0-2-2 1.06 TOI Selected 119th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Dylan Frank Militia

Defense 1-2-3 4.48 TOI Selected 75th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL
Filip Jedlicka Whalers

Forward 0-3-3 5.99 TOI Selected 86th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Undrafted in SHL

All of these players ended up busting, not getting drafted to the SHL, and being relieved of their duties after their first season. One surprising tidbit is that Frank Mouette went 48th in this very large draft pool. This could be due to his overperformance in the S45 prospect showcase where he got 43 points in a mere 35 games. Comparing this to his measly 2 points in 50 games, we can see that he simply overperformed.

Steve Craig-Smeb Raptors

Forward 1-2-3 8.84 TOI Selected 94th in the SMJHL Entry Draft Selected 85th in the SHL Entry Draft

This player was the only player that fit the criteria and also got drafted into the SHL. Unfortunately, like his colleagues above, he didn’t make it past his first season. He likely got drafted due to being a recreate and having a high activity rate. His low point totals were due to his abysmal defense (it is lower than his checking).

Analysis of These Players

So, what did I find with this data? Well of course one thing is more or less conclusive: to get drafted you should remain active no matter what your points totals are. If you look at the players Logan Jensen and James Dekens, you can see that in the long run, your first SMJHL season points totals don’t matter. In total, only twenty two percent of these players got drafted into the SHL. We also can see that only twelve percent of these players ended up playing on an SHL team in the last season. Note that some of these players were inactives and were playing only several seconds per game.

Out of curiosity, I took a look at the amount of players for each team that appeared on the list. Of all the teams, the Halifax Raiders had the most players of any team that fall under this category of all the teams in the last 10 seasons. Second place is a three way tie between the Knights, the Militia, and the Scarecrows.

[Image: 2nsBom2.png]

Here is the data applied to a graph that focuses on players per season.

[Image: roKO2BX.png]

A look ahead to the S37 SHL Draft

In S47 we ran into several players that fall under this category. Out of all four rookies that managed less than 3 points in S46, 3 of them are already inactive. This could either be due to lack of interest in the site, or simply getting frustrated with not getting points and leaving the site. The following players fall into this category

Duke Nukemstien Raptors

Forward 0-1-1 8.69 TOI Selected 69th in the SMJHL Entry Draft
Joshua Maugher Falcons

Defense 1-2-3 8.92 TOI Selected 48th in the SMJHL Entry Draft
Dirk Von Grimmelshausen Militia

Defense 1-2-3 12.22 TOI Selected 46th in the SMJHL Entry Draft

As I said above, these players are all inactive or are semi-active. Of the three Joshua Maugher is probably going to end up being picked in the draft. At a total of 194 TPE, and with very infrequent updates, he is the most active of the three players above. This isn’t saying very much. My prediction for this player is that he will be picked near the end of the draft by a team looking to get a player with pretty low, but decent TPE that they can play for very very low minutes. In the future this player may become a free agent and get picked up by a team when they need somebody to play a few seconds per game. I may be being cynical, but this player doesn’t have much of a future unless he becomes more active.

Noah Gallagher Scarecrows

Forward 0-1-1 7.84 TOI Undrafted in the SMJHL

In a complete 180, this player severely underperformed. With 228 TPE and a very high activity level, I am surprised that this player got as many points as he did. In fact, his only point came in the last few games of the season. This player has elite roots and is sure to go reasonably high in the draft despite his lackluster performance in this past season. All in all, the future is bright for this young winger and he will make a name for himself in upcoming seasons.

Conclusions

Underperformance of players will happen every season. Numerous rookies will only put up very small numbers in their first season. This isn’t entirely a good prediction of success in the future, so if this happens to you, continue working at it. Even though the number of players that went from less than three-point rookies to top SHL point-getters is very low in the history of SHL, it is entirely possible.

If you would like to see the data I collected in order to write this article, here is a spreadsheet

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