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***Citizen of Adraa*** · 08-30-2019, 03:54 PM

So kind people of SMJHL, welcome to a bit of a writeup of what I think might be an interesting end of the season and maybe one of the crazier playoff experiences in the juniors. The league has been incredibly close for basically the entire season, and we still don’t have many answers about how the season ends, who ends where and in what order the teams even enter the playoffs. So, let’s predict that.

1. Kelowna Knights – Top 2 is pretty much a lock right now. Kelowna and Detroit seemed content with their order for most of the season until Detroit decided to start dropping games a lot to end the season with and now, we are at a point where Kelowna even held 1st for few sims before Detroit took it back. Now, they are separated by one point, don’t play a game against each other, and Detroit is ahead. But, since they shown some vulnerability in their play and Kelowna has been a lot smoother to end the season, I give them the edge.
2. Detroit Falcons – If Detroit manages to squeeze all the points they can out of their last 4 games, they are gucci. Even if they just tie with Kelowna. My problem is, can they do that? Both teams schedules have fairly similar strenght, yet we look at Detroit’s last 10 and wonder how did they manage to hold on to the 1st for so long if the point swing seems to be so big?
3. Halifax Raiders – Probably the easiest prediction of this list. Halifax sits a few points behind top 2 with 1 more game, and has a 7 point lead over 4th which is Vancouver right now, is mathematically locked into top 4 yet both the way they move up or down the order are so out there and unlikely that its similarly unlikely Halifax moves. Halifax profiled into this 3rd place and was ever since met with very little contention from behind, yet couldn’t stretch their players to contest up either. That seems to hold true to the very end.
4. Montreal Militia – Hold up. 7th goes to 4th? Even though Vancouver has a game in hand? Well ladies and gentlemen, this is what strenght of schedule does to you. Every other team out of this garbled mess of the 4th to 7th plays a top 3 team, some even multiple times – not Militia though. That makes them a much easier pick to gain all they can out of their games (they play 2 out of 3 against currently 10th Anchorage), and that gives them a fantastic chance at grabbing a good spot for the playoffs. Why that’s important? You don’t want to match up against a top 3 team if you can help it.
5. Vancouver Whalers – Montreal takes 4th, Vancouver should be able to hold 5th thanks to the extra game in their schedule. Not a rocket science really. Vancouver plays Halifax twice, still in theoretical contention of 3rd, but more likely then not, they will see these games as a curse, not a blessing. If they can take all the points on the board and Halifax implodes, 3rd is up for grabs, but reallistically, strenght of schedule and statistics say that while Montreal will probably edge you out, you keep a favourable 5th.
6. St. Louis Scarecrows – Here we go, the team to play Halifax, the team I GM. St. Louis had won a cup previously out of this spot, but now the competition up top is fierce and while it’s not unimaginable, it’s unlikely at best. Between Lethbridge and St. Louis this might come down to the wire as they play each other as their last game of the season, but while Lethbridge plays 2 top 2 teams, St. Louis only gets to face one, giving them a better option to score points than Lethbridge. Unfortunately, though, both Montreal and Vancouver have stronger cases for them.
7. Lethbridge Lions – Sending Lethbridge to the shadow realm of play-ins is not exactly an easy decision, but everything is stacked against them. If they beat St. Louis cleanly in their last game, hope wouldn’t be lost, but if things go to plan for St. Louis, Lethbridge won’t have options. Most unfortunate.
8. Colorado Raptors – Wow, even those these spots seem unlikely to muddy the waters of playoffs too much, they are going to be interesting to watch for sure. Colorado is point behind Anaheim right now, but have a game in hand and both teams have a similarly bad schedule. If beating top 3 team is unlikely for the teams mentioned above, what can I say about the teams at the bottom of the league right now. At least, this would put them at a decent spot for the play-ins, but it’s questionable how far do they get you with a top 2 matchup in the second round.
9. Anaheim Outlaws – Point ahead, game more than Colorado. Bad schedule with strong opponents, and we might try to make a case about how they might not even hold 9th. The problem is, that would require Anaheim to not earn a point throughout their 3 games they have left and for Anchorage to win at least 2 of their games, or for Anaheim to lose 2 out of 3 and for Anchorage to win all of their games. Even though when we are talking a relatively weak team in Anaheim, that’s not exactly impossible, my hopes for Anchorage aren't exactly sky high either.
10. Anchorage Armada – By far the easiest schedule doesn’t change the fact they are 2 points down on Colorado already, which has a game on them, and 3 behind Anaheim. It’s an uphill battle for Anchorage for the rest of this season, and while this might be the least confident I am with a prediction out of this list, moving to 9th isn’t exactly much of a win to be completely fair. It would save them from a bad matchup with Lethbridge, but in my humble opinion, this year the play-ins won’t make too much noise thanks to how Detroit and Kelowna look.

So, I know there are only few games left and I should've probably tried to write this up a few days earlier, but I still think we have a bunch to look forward to even this close to the end of the season. I will go and predict the playoffs once the season ends, and we can see if my predictions held up or if I am just predicting a big pile of bullshit. Either way, it's a fun little thing to do and I hope you enjoyed reading it.

Naosu · 08-30-2019, 04:12 PM

Huck24 · 08-30-2019, 05:03 PM

Going to be a great finish to the season!

charlieconway · 08-30-2019, 07:39 PM

I'm amazed the Armada have done so poorly this season. I thought they had a good roster.

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