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*thiefofcheese* · 08-27-2019, 12:35 PM

!!DISCLAIMER!! The below figures are based on the PROPOSED rules for the S50 season of the SMJHL and MOCK budget numbers if these rules were to be applied for S49 !!DISCLAIMER!!

As many of you know, the SMJHL has been running without a defined budget since the massive S46 Reddit draft of 116 new players. The rule since then has been to give each Rookie $3M salary and there is no salary cap. SHL send down salary is held by their respective SHL team and have no impact on the SMJHL team's budget (that doesn't really exist anyway).

Now that things have had time to settle the HO is looking to implement a more structured method to the SMJHL budget. Rather than just going back to prior rules, they are taking a new look and the current plan is to have the following minimum salaries:

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Active Rookie Min Salary: $1M
Send Down Salary held by SMJHL Team: $2M
Active Free Agent: No Minimum
Inactive Free Agent 155-200 TPE: $1M
Inactive Free Agent 201-350 TPE: $2M

Max Roster Size: 22
Max IFAs 201-350 TPE: UNDEFINED
Team Salary Cap: UNDEFINED

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With those rules as written, I have looked at each S49 team (which again - does NOT CURRENTLY have to abide by these rules, this is MOCK) and applied this ruleset. So for each S50 rookie rather than showing their $3M salary, I'm assuming it's $1M. And all send down's will be $2M. And so on. I also fudged S50 AFAs as rookies here to make the data look the same. Currently the AFA got $3M, but it's expected Rookies get that so they made it even with the AFA. I'll assume Rookie AFAs will be signed to Rookie level contracts for this data set.

This was compiled as of 8/27/19 so all stats are locked into that time and before any trades took place today.

So now that we have the rules of engagement out of the way - let's moneyball this shit:

First we have team composition. There are a few different ways to break this down, but lets start with the simplest based on what type of player is on their roster. These are defined as:

Active Rookie: An S50 player that was drafted in the SMJHL in S49
Send Down: A player that's been drafted by an SHL team but playing in the SMJHL still
Active Free Agent: An active player that was not drafted in SMJHL S49 draft but also not signed to an SMJHL team
Inactive Free Agent: A player who was created, and possibly even increased TPE to high levels, but has not performed an update in at least 4 weeks

So without further ado:

Anyone following the S49 SMJHL draft will not be overly surprised at these results. Detroit is stacked with Send Downs and traded away most of their picks and landed only 2 Rookies. Whereas Lethbridge came in on the opposite side and is sporting a roster of 12 rookies.

So let's take that to a view from the Salary perspective. Due to the fairly common payouts by player type, we don't see a lot here to surprise us either, but still makes for a pretty chart:

It's no surprise to see Detroit with the highest salary hit due to the sheer number of $2M Send Downs.

The one thing that's really any different between these two is that Montreal is paying their Active Free Agents better than most.

Ok, now that we know what class of players we have, lets take a step further and break it down by position:

Here it looks like Detroit is really lacking on the Blue Line, but digging deeper they actually dress 2 forwards as d-men. Travis Bitties ( RW ) and Kalvins Zvejnieks ( C ) play defensive roles, but are quite adept in the offensive category too. This again shows the power of Send Downs in the SMJHL and parity of 350 capped players as these "forwards" have defensive stats equal to that of the standard defenders.

But then here is where things start to get a bit interesting. I calculated the total TPE per team (with capped players calculated at 350) and sorted based on Team Standings:

Again no surprise with Detroit having the highest TPE team, but following that things do get a bit interesting. Second place in the standings is Kelowna but they are 8th in total team TPE. And then there is Anchorage tied for last in the standings, but sporting the second highest TPE team. This just goes to show that team makeup and pairings can have a very measurable impact on the games and stockpiling TPE doesn't necessarily buy wins.

While we are on the topic of buying wins - lets look at each teams price per TPE this season. I again sorted by current team standings, but rather than totaling TPE, I looked at the average each team paid per TPE:

The obvious outlier here is St. Louis with their AFA Goalie signing of [S49] Goalie - Marques Brownlee at $3M, but I worry this was an attempt at meeting a rookie contract, so for the sake of what I feel would be a more accurate mock, I bumped him down to $1M. I also zoomed it in to show the variance:

Here we have Montreal again showing that Fuzz has some loose purse strings. But it doesn't appear as though Simon takes bribes as spending does not yet directly correlate to wins.

I don't know what any of this means, but there you have it. Maybe I'll do a run through of the SHL as there is much more variance there, but it took me like a week to get around to finishing this post so don't hold your breath.

TL;DR: After doing this work there were no real surprises b/c of the very common salaries, but I had already done the work so I'm posting it anyway. Maybe next season will be different? (Likely not)

(1003 words and 486 hours cussing at google spreadsheets)

***luke*** · 08-27-2019, 12:46 PM

I really really like this. I love the salary graphs

BDonini · 08-27-2019, 01:56 PM

great work as always

***Gwdjohnson*** · 08-29-2019, 07:57 PM

This is excellent work, I see why you're the budget director now eh?

Whoever grades this better give a fat fuckin bonus--oh wait that's me! Smile

*thiefofcheese* · 08-29-2019, 10:38 PM

08-29-2019, 07:57 PMGwdjohnson Wrote: This is excellent work, I see why you're the budget director now eh?

Whoever grades this better give a fat fuckin bonus--oh wait that's me!

I agree! $253M will do. Exercise

FuzzSHL · 08-30-2019, 12:31 PM

My fat wallet might not bring home the wins.....yet, but it sure does make the players happy Wink

Aleksi Kettu

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