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reid · 02-25-2020, 05:09 PM

(2000 words, add 500k RBM 2 Bonus please, ready for grading)

With the playoffs upon us, I wanted to analyze how each SMJHL team has won in the regular season, which will ultimately predict how they will compete in the playoffs. I once again used Hockey Reference’s Point Shares equations to assign OPS and DPS to all skaters, and then summed the TPS for Forwards and Defense to do the analysis.

First off, we can look at SMJHL teams graphed according to the relative TPS for forwards and defense. The x-axis is the forwards relative TPS, and the y-axis is the defense relative TPS. This analysis paints the picture of where the team is getting their points, and which group contributes towards their success (or lack thereof).

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In the top right quadrant is the Kelowna Knights, the only team to finish positive for both forwards and defense. They are by far the most well-balanced team, so despite finishing 7th in the league and having to play in the first round, they may be the scariest team right now. They can survive either of their groups going cold for a game or two and are not relying heavily on a few players.

In the second group is the offensively one-dimensional teams. Carolina, St. Louis, Detroit, and Halifax all fall within this group. Even within the group, there is a wide variety. Halifax, the worst team in the league, is barely above average with their forwards (0.2 above average) and has the second lowest defensive TPS (more on this later). St. Louis and Detroit are on the surface very similar teams in terms of TPS. They have the second and third best forward group by TPS, and slightly below average defensive teams. They both rely heavily on their offense, which is how they have succeeded all season. The best defense is a great offense. The final team within this group is Carolina. The biggest boom or bust team in the whole league, they are brutal defensively, but their offense is second to none, and leads the league by a country mile in forward OPS and DPS. With a whopping 11.2 TPS above average for forwards, if that group is clicking, they are carrying their team straight to the finals. On the flip side of that, their defense must be composed of 6 pilons, as they were just as bad as their forwards were good. Based on the stats, they were likely made up of defensive defenseman, as they had a combined total of -9.4 OPS. Even on the defensive side, they were 1.6 TPS below average, good for fourth worst in the league.

The top left quadrant is the second half of the one-dimensional equation – the defensively focused teams. Vancouver, Colorado, Anaheim, Anchorage, and Newfoundland all fall into this category. All of these teams were significantly below average in terms of the forwards TPS but had quite positive defenseman TPS. I will touch on the elements of the Defenseman TPS later in the article, but something to note is that Vancouver had the strongest TPS, which was helped by a lot of scoring from their defenseman, relative to average.

Next, we can break down the teams forward groups, and see how the forwards stack up offensively or defensively. Here the x-axis is the groups relative OPS, and the y-axis is the relative DPS. This graph shows if the forwards of each team are one dimensional, or more balanced.

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This graph is a bit more spread out. As alluded to in the previous section, Carolina has far and away the best forward group when looking at point shares. They lead the league in both OPS and DPS relative to average for their forward group. They were helped with 6 forwards above 5.0 TPS (70th Percentile) and with only 1 of their forward group posting a negative TPS. Other teams with above average offensive and defensive forward groups were Kelowna who is top 5 for OPS and DPS for forwards, and St. Louis – who is just above average for DPS as a forward group and has the third best forward group in terms of OPS above average.

The one-dimensional group of forwards starts with the Detroit Falcons and Halifax Raiders. Detroit had the second-best forwards in terms of OPS, but also iced the least defensively responsible forward group in the league. This isn’t altogether surprising, as the team was heavy on rookies, and had MVP frontrunners Kaarlo Kekkonen and Cal Labovitch, who were 1st and 3rd in the league in points. Halifax was fairly balanced, as their forwards were almost as bad defensively as they were good defensively, balancing out at 0.2 TPS when added together.

The other side of the one-dimensional coin was the defensively responsible forwards from Vancouver, Colorado, and Anaheim. All three groups were abysmal offensively, ranking as the three worst OPS forward groups in the league. Vancouver – the last ranked team in this category – was almost as bad offensively as Carolina was good. Colorado had the best defensive forwards in this group (2nd in the league behind Carolina).
The last part of this graph was Anchorage and Newfoundland, whose forwards were below average in both OPS and DPS. This is not a good sign for the Boats and Angry Vikings, and both groups will need to be significantly better in the playoffs to see results.

Last but not least, we can look at the team’s defensive groups. The axis are the same as the forwards graph previously.

[Image: unknown.png]

This graph shows that among the defensive groups in the league, there are a lot less one-dimensional teams this season. For the groups that are strong in both OPS and TPS for the defensive cores, it is an almost mirror image of the last graph. Vancouver, Colorado, and Kelowna are the teams that have above average OPS and DPS ratings. Among these, Colorado has the largest DPS above average, and is 6th in OPS among defensive groups. This makes for a very balanced group that contributes to the Knights being the most well-rounded team in the hunt for the 4-star cup. Right on the bubble of the balanced defensive groups are Newfoundland and Anaheim, who are only slightly below average in terms of DPS.

On the opposite side of the scale are the defense groups below average in both categories. Detroit, Halifax, and most notably Carolina all registered below average DPS and OPS from their defenseman. Detroit was close to being a bubble team, as they were only 0.3 OPS below average. Carolina’s rear-guards were a whopping 9.4 OPS below average, meaning they contributed almost nothing in terms of points. They had two defenseman who registered positive OPS scores, but as a group posted -2.8 OPS (total, not relative).

The one-dimensional camps only had one inhabitant each. The Anchorage Armada had the second highest OPS from their defensive corps, while registering the worst relative DPS score. They likely take a lot of risks as a group, and it has regularly burned them. St. Louis is the opposite – as a group they registered the 4th highest relative DPS as a group, and also the 3rd worst OPS. They are clearly a group of stay at home defenseman who protect the puck and limit shots against.

Playoff Lookout:

Based on the TPS analysis, here is my prediction for how teams will do in the playoffs.

Anaheim: A defensively responsible group all around, this teams pitfall could be it’s offense. Their d-corps is the 3rd ranked scoring back end, but their forwards also have the 3rd worst relative OPS rank. This likely spells disaster for the Outlaws. They face the Whalers in the second round, who have an even better defense than the Outlaws. Good luck scoring on that group with this offense.

Anchorage: With a below average forward group, and a heavily offensive group of defensemen, the Armada are a one trick pony, relying heavily on their back end to score points. They do not prevent opportunities for the other team very well, and without an elite offense, this team is in trouble. They are down 1-2 against Newfoundland in the first round, and that series projects to be tight. They are likely not long for the second round if they get past the Beserkers.

Carolina: This team will be very fun to watch. They will explode on offense and could very well blow out teams. They tied for the league lead, so something is clearly working for them. All it would take to regress however, is for them to run into a great defensive team such as Vancouver, or their offense to go cold.

Colorado: Very similar to Vancouver in the sense that the Raptors rely heavily on their defense to succeed. The one advantage that they have over Vancouver is that their offense isn’t quite as bad at putting the puck in the net. Still, they need to keep the goal preventing to a maximum to see any success.

Detroit: They key for the Falcons is their aggressive forward groups. They own the 2nd overall OPS as a group but are not defensively responsible at all. This team will win by outscoring their opponents and has the possibility to go far. They will not face Kelowna in the second round by virtue of being the top seed, so they will likely face a defensive team in the second round. They have the firepower to punch through if need be.

Halifax: The worst team in the league this season, the Raiders are already down 1-2 in their first round series against Kelowna. They are the second worst team in the league defensively, with not enough offense to make up for it. Their forward and defense groups both give up too many opportunities, and their offense is the only group chipping in points – and not at that great of a rate. Given how Kelowna profiles, it is not likely Halifax can experience much success in the playoffs.

Kelowna: The only team with a balanced TPS from their forwards and defenseman, the Knights are a dark horse to do well in the playoffs. Up 2-1 against Halifax at the moment, they will likely face off against Carolina in the second round. Their defense will be tested, but the good thing is, in this scenario they will be facing a porous defense. The threat to the Knights is that they are good but not great at anything, which could be a death sentence if they run into a hot team.

Newfoundland: The Beserkers have a below average forward group, which is balanced by a defensive group that is strong offensively and average defensively. They are up 2-1 against Anchorage – who are a one-dimensional team – so it is possible to gut it out and win the series. They would likely face Detroit in the second round if they win, which would be a death sentence for a team who is below average in DPS.

St. Louis: Both the forwards and defenseman of St. Louis are fairly defensively responsible. St. Louis owns the 3rd ranked offense from their forwards, all of which results in the second highest TPS from forwards. Their defense could be their weak spot, as they are one-dimensional – staying at home and not chipping in much offensively. This team could do very well come the playoffs, as they have a little of everything. They face the Raptors in the second round, so they key will be solving their suffocating defense.

Vancouver: This team is probably too one-dimensional to succeed in the playoffs. They earned a first-round bye, but they rely very heavily on their defense. All it will take to eliminate this team is a very hot offense. They say defense wins championships, so Vancouver might be able to get past a round or two, but they have to be able to score in order to seal the deal.

juke · 02-25-2020, 05:16 PM

Quote:They are down 1-2 against Anchorage

How dare you good sir, we're the ones up 2-1. Great write up though, always nice to see a fellow data media submitter!

reid · 02-25-2020, 05:26 PM

02-25-2020, 05:16 PMSmalinowski7 Wrote:
Quote:They are down 1-2 against Anchorage

How dare you good sir, we're the ones up 2-1. Great write up though, always nice to see a fellow data media submitter!

I realized right after posting thanks to your article! It’s changed now. Thanks for the compliment!

Nhamlet · 02-26-2020, 08:27 AM

Love the data. I need more.

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